Chinese Trade War

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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ivytalk »

Skjellyfetti wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: the only effective non-tariff way of dealing with the Red Chunks may be countervailing multilateral trade agreements with allies or nonaligned countries, like the NPT was supposed to be.
Yep.

TPP was an imperfect way to counter China. But, way better than a Trade War, imo.

Similarly, the Iran Deal was imperfect... but, better than current flexing, and obviously better than a war if it leads to that.
Thank you for the correction. Obviously, my aged mind was veering off into the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But that’s another story for another day.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
So the Chinese are approaching the situation more intelligently than Trump is? Wow. What a shocker.
No, the Chinese are paying the tariffs to keep work in China.
I just read the article you linked again and am wondering if you linked the article you meant to link. The article you linked is basically an argument that the Chinese are approaching this situation in a much more intelligent manner than Trump is. And I don't see anything in it at all about the Chinese paying tariffs to keep work in China. Instead, it is about things like the Chinese reducing tariffs on imports from other countries (such as Canada) while it increases tariffs on imports from the United States. In certain areas. It's also about China being selective in what it imposes tariffs on. The subtitle to the headline pretty much summarizes the point of the piece:
As Trump focuses on disruption, Beijing is evidently operating on a higher level.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:No, the Chinese are paying the tariffs to keep work in China.
I just read the article you linked again and am wondering if you linked the article you meant to link. The article you linked is basically an argument that the Chinese are approaching this situation in a much more intelligent manner than Trump is. And I don't see anything in it at all about the Chinese paying tariffs to keep work in China. Instead, it is about things like the Chinese reducing tariffs on imports from other countries (such as Canada) while it increases tariffs on imports from the United States. In certain areas. It's also about China being selective in what it imposes tariffs on. The subtitle to the headline pretty much summarizes the point of the piece:
As Trump focuses on disruption, Beijing is evidently operating on a higher level.
Which article? Are we talking the Bloomberg article? The one about Giant bicycles moving?
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

How exactly do you lose 1.2 Trillion?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Dataw ... disappears
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China's current-account balance will turn negative in 2022, due to the effects of the U.S. trade war and other developments. Under the surface, a huge outflow of money is widening beyond the control of the government's strict regulators.

The trend raises the possibility of a shift in the global balance of power.

A total of $1.2 trillion has "disappeared" from China's statistics in a little over a decade, potentially undermining the clout the country has sought to build through the Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and huge investments in U.S. government bonds.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ha! China's thinks putting the last guy they demoted back into the equation that they can go back to previous negotiations.

Trump says no concessions.

Only time will tell, it sure looks like Trump completely outmaneuvered Xi.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CAA Flagship »

One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

CAA Flagship wrote:One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
I'm just glad we finally have someone with the balls to negotiate a decent deal.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CAA Flagship »

SeattleGriz wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
I'm just glad we finally have someone with the balls to negotiate a decent deal.
There may never be a deal. A "deal" may or may not be the goal. This is economic warfare with a foreign state that cheats their asses off. Announcement of any "deal" would not mean much without following the spirit of the rules. Not sure that is in their interest.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

CAA Flagship wrote:One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
Vietnam will not be a low cost option for long -

I have had the added perspective of seeing Vietnam develop from 2010 until now, and in those 9 years Vietnam has progressed economically more quickly than any country I have ever seen. It is possible that the PRC itself never saw such internal development over any 9 year period of its existence.

Anecdotally, Vietnam is quickly catching up to and will surpass Thailand as the most developed country in mainland SE Asia - it may happen in as little as 10 years. It is good to see and a golden opportunity for us because the Vietnamese consider China as their number one geopolitical adversary. That is a 1000 year, culturally ingrained conflict. Thailand, on the other hand, is increasingly under the sway of Beijing.

On a micro scale, you can’t get a Tiger beer for less than 30-40K dong in Saigon. That’s double what it was in 2012.


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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by BDKJMU »

CID1990 wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
Vietnam will not be a low cost option for long -

I have had the added perspective of seeing Vietnam develop from 2010 until now, and in those 9 years Vietnam has progressed economically more quickly than any country I have ever seen. It is possible that the PRC itself never saw such internal development over any 9 year period of its existence.

Anecdotally, Vietnam is quickly catching up to and will surpass Thailand as the most developed country in mainland SE Asia - it may happen in as little as 10 years. It is good to see and a golden opportunity for us because the Vietnamese consider China as their number one geopolitical adversary. That is a 1000 year, culturally ingrained conflict. Thailand, on the other hand, is increasingly under the sway of Beijing.

On a micro scale, you can’t get a Tiger beer for less than 30-40K dong in Saigon. That’s double what it was in 2012.

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Interesting. I just looked up the dong exchange rate on Xe.com
1 US dollar = 23,292.73 VND.
So 30,000-40,000 dongs = between about $1.29 and $1.72....
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by UNI88 »

CID1990 wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:One of the underlying goals is to get US companies to get their goods manufactured in countries other than China. The Govt. can't force them to do it but the conditions can get them to do it willingly. CNBC did a report from Vietnam today that touched on the move many companies are making from China to Vietnam. The funny thing is, China is also moving many things to Vietnam also. China's rising wages are forcing them to seek cheaper labor too.

This chess match will not end anytime soon, but it is fascinating to watch.
Vietnam will not be a low cost option for long -

I have had the added perspective of seeing Vietnam develop from 2010 until now, and in those 9 years Vietnam has progressed economically more quickly than any country I have ever seen. It is possible that the PRC itself never saw such internal development over any 9 year period of its existence.

Anecdotally, Vietnam is quickly catching up to and will surpass Thailand as the most developed country in mainland SE Asia - it may happen in as little as 10 years. It is good to see and a golden opportunity for us because the Vietnamese consider China as their number one geopolitical adversary. That is a 1000 year, culturally ingrained conflict. Thailand, on the other hand, is increasingly under the sway of Beijing.

On a micro scale, you can’t get a Tiger beer for less than 30-40K dong in Saigon. That’s double what it was in 2012.

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Last edited by UNI88 on Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

BDKJMU wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Vietnam will not be a low cost option for long -

I have had the added perspective of seeing Vietnam develop from 2010 until now, and in those 9 years Vietnam has progressed economically more quickly than any country I have ever seen. It is possible that the PRC itself never saw such internal development over any 9 year period of its existence.

Anecdotally, Vietnam is quickly catching up to and will surpass Thailand as the most developed country in mainland SE Asia - it may happen in as little as 10 years. It is good to see and a golden opportunity for us because the Vietnamese consider China as their number one geopolitical adversary. That is a 1000 year, culturally ingrained conflict. Thailand, on the other hand, is increasingly under the sway of Beijing.

On a micro scale, you can’t get a Tiger beer for less than 30-40K dong in Saigon. That’s double what it was in 2012.

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Interesting. I just looked up the dong exchange rate on Xe.com
1 US dollar = 23,292.73 VND.
So 30,000-40,000 dongs = between about $1.29 and $1.72....
That's about right - its still cheaper than in the US but I miss the days of 50 cent beers in Saigon (and those were the pricey ones)
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

We'll, well. Looks like China is back at the drawing table right where they left off.

3D chess
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Chizzang »

SeattleGriz wrote:We'll, well. Looks like China is back at the drawing table right where they left off.

3D chess
Oh thank goodness... So we won the trade war
I was hoping we would win


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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

Chizzang wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:We'll, well. Looks like China is back at the drawing table right where they left off.

3D chess
Oh thank goodness... So we won the trade war
I was hoping we would win


:geek:
China plays a zero sum game and right now it looks like they will accept some loss in trade.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ivytalk »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
Oh thank goodness... So we won the trade war
I was hoping we would win


:geek:
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
Oh thank goodness... So we won the trade war
I was hoping we would win


:geek:
China plays a zero sum game and right now it looks like they will accept some loss in trade.
The big thing is that Chinese leaders can play the long game and US leaders cannot. Plus, right now, we have a complete idiot as the head of our government. Chinese leadership vs. US leadership is a total mismatch in favor of the Chinese.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:China plays a zero sum game and right now it looks like they will accept some loss in trade.
The big thing is that Chinese leaders can play the long game and US leaders cannot.
That horse is dead, John

The answer is to acknowledge the advantages of their dictatorial system and then do nothing. That’s what you’re arguing for.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:China plays a zero sum game and right now it looks like they will accept some loss in trade.
The big thing is that Chinese leaders can play the long game and US leaders cannot. Plus, right now, we have a complete idiot as the head of our government. Chinese leadership vs. US leadership is a total mismatch in favor of the Chinese.
Do you even know who is negotiating on the American side?

Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer. They aren't the hacks you portray them to be.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:China plays a zero sum game and right now it looks like they will accept some loss in trade.
The big thing is that Chinese leaders can play the long game and US leaders cannot. Plus, right now, we have a complete idiot as the head of our government. Chinese leadership vs. US leadership is a total mismatch in favor of the Chinese.
John, we haven't had a capable diplomat in the oval office since HW.

We should have done this (tariffs) at least 10-20+ years ago but better late than never. And for all of Trumpster's buffoonery, that blind pig sure seems to find some acorns.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
The big thing is that Chinese leaders can play the long game and US leaders cannot.
That horse is dead, John

The answer is to acknowledge the advantages of their dictatorial system and then do nothing. That’s what you’re arguing for.
I suppose so. But the bottom line is that people in the United States have benefitted from the situation. It has been more positive than negative for the "typical" American. That's why the situation is what it is now.

I don't think Trump knows what he's doing. And I think Trump will lose. Doesn't mean I KNOW he will lose. But, to me, the idea that he holds the cards is absurd. I think the Chinese hold the cards because US consumers have benefitted greatly from the trade situation as it is.
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Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
That horse is dead, John

The answer is to acknowledge the advantages of their dictatorial system and then do nothing. That’s what you’re arguing for.
I suppose so. But the bottom line is that people in the United States have benefitted from the situation. It has been more positive than negative for the "typical" American. That's why the situation is what it is now.

I don't think Trump knows what he's doing. And I think Trump will lose. Doesn't mean I KNOW he will lose. But, to me, the idea that he holds the cards is absurd. I think the Chinese hold the cards because US consumers have benefitted greatly from the trade situation as it is.
John, we've been losing since the Chinese first required companies wanting access to their market to set up manufacturing facilities in China where they could learn and copy the technologies and techniques. Doing nothing and continuing the status quo is losing so we might as well try something.

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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
That horse is dead, John

The answer is to acknowledge the advantages of their dictatorial system and then do nothing. That’s what you’re arguing for.
I suppose so. But the bottom line is that people in the United States have benefitted from the situation. It has been more positive than negative for the "typical" American. That's why the situation is what it is now.

I don't think Trump knows what he's doing. And I think Trump will lose. Doesn't mean I KNOW he will lose. But, to me, the idea that he holds the cards is absurd. I think the Chinese hold the cards because US consumers have benefitted greatly from the trade situation as it is.
OK. So as long as we keep getting flooded with cheap Chinese sh*t, whatever the Red Chunks do with our technology is OK. Gotcha. No existential threat here. Move along.

A generation or two ago, before WalMart, we were flooded with cheap Japanese sh*t. Remember that? But we adjusted without losing our intellectual property.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I suppose so. But the bottom line is that people in the United States have benefitted from the situation. It has been more positive than negative for the "typical" American. That's why the situation is what it is now.

I don't think Trump knows what he's doing. And I think Trump will lose. Doesn't mean I KNOW he will lose. But, to me, the idea that he holds the cards is absurd. I think the Chinese hold the cards because US consumers have benefitted greatly from the trade situation as it is.
John, we've been losing since the Chinese first required companies wanting access to their market to set up manufacturing facilities in China where they could learn and copy the technologies and techniques. Doing nothing and continuing the status quo is losing so we might as well try something.

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This is why they stepped away the first time...because we had specifically set up the rules to punish theft. Rules and enforcement specific to the industry.

China says that it gave the US too much power. Or to say it another way, it finally was going to hold China accountable.
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Re: Chinese Trade War

Post by CAA Flagship »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I suppose so. But the bottom line is that people in the United States have benefitted from the situation. It has been more positive than negative for the "typical" American. That's why the situation is what it is now.

I don't think Trump knows what he's doing. And I think Trump will lose. Doesn't mean I KNOW he will lose. But, to me, the idea that he holds the cards is absurd. I think the Chinese hold the cards because US consumers have benefitted greatly from the trade situation as it is.
OK. So as long as we keep getting flooded with cheap Chinese sh*t, whatever the Red Chunks do with our technology is OK. Gotcha. No existential threat here. Move along.

A generation or two ago, before WalMart, we were flooded with cheap Japanese sh*t. Remember that? But we adjusted without losing our intellectual property.
I'm still in possession of some of that Japanese shit.

:rimshot:
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