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The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:25 am
by kalm
Shouldn't be measured by just GDP. We fail to assign value in many important categories when analysing "growth", and we view some positive outcomes as declining GDP. :nod:


Work has advanced on some of these elements. The UN Environment Programme-led Inclusive Wealth Index shows the aggregation through accounting and shadow pricing of produced capital, natural capital and human capital for 140 countries. The global growth rate of wealth tracked by this index is much lower than growth in GDP. In fact, the 2018 data suggests natural capital declined for 140 countries for the period of 1992 to 2014.

Interestingly, many countries record GDP growth while they lose natural capital. One can see the trade-off among various types of capital, but the report clearly conveys that mixing income with wealth is bad economics and dangerous for sustainability measurement.

The Index’s findings include strong recommendations to help reach global sustainability targets, including the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Closely tracking countries’ productive bases is key, as a declining asset base implies a non-sustainable trajectory. Many of the assets critical for maintaining productive bases are either not priced or are priced at much lower levels than they should be. This is especially true for natural capital and human capital assets. Natural capital assets such as forests and water bodies have only been valued for the products they provide for the market, such as timber and fish. However, these ecosystems offer a much larger suite of services, such as water purification, water regulation and habitat provisioning for species, among many others. These are clearly valuable services.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/ ... MAxIfbURoA

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:38 am
by Grizalltheway
AZGrizFan wrote:Whatever you whiny loser, just get over it.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:34 am
by 89Hen
First paragraph started to lose me. Sounded like a feel good index or the idea that Justin Bateman pitched in the movie Hancock.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:43 am
by kalm
89Hen wrote:First paragraph started to lose me. Sounded like a feel good index or the idea that Justin Bateman pitched in the movie Hancock.
Here are a couple of examples...

An affordable cancer drug that is successful reduces GDP.

Less war reduces GDP.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:10 am
by CAA Flagship
Is this a solution without a problem?
What actions do people/countries take based on GDP numbers? What's the real impact?

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:16 am
by kalm
CAA Flagship wrote:Is this a solution without a problem?
What actions do people/countries take based on GDP numbers? What's the real impact?
Economic policy isn’t based on GDP?

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:22 am
by GannonFan
kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:Is this a solution without a problem?
What actions do people/countries take based on GDP numbers? What's the real impact?
Economic policy isn’t based on GDP?
So combining your two posts are you saying that countries are purposely delaying or inhibiting affordable cancer drugs that are successful as part of their economic policy to inflate GDP? Which countries are doing that? Are we doing that here? :coffee:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:28 am
by CAA Flagship
kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:Is this a solution without a problem?
What actions do people/countries take based on GDP numbers? What's the real impact?
Economic policy isn’t based on GDP?
What specifically about "Economic policy"?
Do you mean Federal Reserve's monetary decisions or do you mean political decisions such as tax reform, or both?

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:52 am
by kalm
GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Economic policy isn’t based on GDP?
So combining your two posts are you saying that countries are purposely delaying or inhibiting affordable cancer drugs that are successful as part of their economic policy to inflate GDP? Which countries are doing that? Are we doing that here? :coffee:
No. They weren’t meant to be combined.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:57 am
by kalm
CAA Flagship wrote:
kalm wrote:
Economic policy isn’t based on GDP?
What specifically about "Economic policy"?
Do you mean Federal Reserve's monetary decisions or do you mean political decisions such as tax reform, or both?
Leaning way more to the political decisions side. GDP is often held up as a measuring stick, but it leaves out some crucial elements.

Another is environmental quality. In the short term, regulation can hurt GDP and slow growth but in the long term can increase standard of living including health.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:58 am
by GannonFan
kalm wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
So combining your two posts are you saying that countries are purposely delaying or inhibiting affordable cancer drugs that are successful as part of their economic policy to inflate GDP? Which countries are doing that? Are we doing that here? :coffee:
No. They weren’t meant to be combined.
:rofl:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:26 pm
by 89Hen
GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
No. They weren’t meant to be combined.
:rofl:
At least he's honest... ish.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:34 pm
by CAA Flagship
kalm wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: What specifically about "Economic policy"?
Do you mean Federal Reserve's monetary decisions or do you mean political decisions such as tax reform, or both?
Leaning way more to the political decisions side. GDP is often held up as a measuring stick, but it leaves out some crucial elements.

Another is environmental quality. In the short term, regulation can hurt GDP and slow growth but in the long term can increase standard of living including health.
OK. But I think GDP is used more out of convenience than anything. No one number dictates any policy, nor should it.

If you want to say that other factors need a bigger say in policy decisions, then fine. But all decisions should be made based on risk.

So I was designing an alternate entrance road into a facility across a small area that was once a landfill. I received a design from a Geotechnical Engineer for that section. Let's say the cost was 10x the normal construction cost (per linear foot) in that section compared to the other parts of the road. I asked the Geotech what his confidence was of that design. He said 90%. I then asked if he reduced the design to 5x the cost what his confidence would be. He said 80%. I then asked what failure would be like. He said potholes that would have to be filled in. So I told the client that for half the cost, he would reduce the confidence from 90% to 80% and the failure in either case would be potholes. The client chose the less expensive design.
So there was significant cost savings with only little increased risk.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:48 pm
by kalm
GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
No. They weren’t meant to be combined.
:rofl:
:?

One example of how GDP can be skewed vs. how GDP is used to influence political outcomes and hence economic policy.


But thanks for the thoughtful response.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:08 pm
by GannonFan
kalm wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
:rofl:
:?

One example of how GDP can be skewed vs. how GDP is used to influence political outcomes and hence economic policy.


But thanks for the thoughtful response.
The thought in my response equaled the thought that was put into starting this thread. :coffee:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:11 pm
by AZGrizFan
Grizalltheway wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:Whatever you whiny loser, just get over it.
It's almost like you know me. :coffee:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:33 pm
by kalm
GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
:?

One example of how GDP can be skewed vs. how GDP is used to influence political outcomes and hence economic policy.


But thanks for the thoughtful response.
The thought in my response equaled the thought that was put into starting this thread. :coffee:
Yeah...because accurate economic measurements don’t fit into a convenient box. :coffee:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:52 pm
by CID1990
Ahh yes

Klam with another hammer... looking for a nail


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:21 pm
by kalm
CID1990 wrote:Ahh yes

Klam with another hammer... looking for a nail


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well I figured you’d reply like this being there’s a mention of the UN in the article. :mrgreen:

Simple question...should natural capital and human capital be a part of the valuation?

If not, let’s plow under Yellowstone and increase the birth rate. :thumb:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:37 pm
by CID1990
kalm wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Ahh yes

Klam with another hammer... looking for a nail


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well I figured you’d reply like this being there’s a mention of the UN in the article. :mrgreen:

Simple question...should natural capital and human capital be a part of the valuation?

If not, let’s plow under Yellowstone and increase the birthdate. :thumb:
Let’s play “guess the fallacy”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:55 pm
by kalm
CID1990 wrote:
kalm wrote:
Well I figured you’d reply like this being there’s a mention of the UN in the article. :mrgreen:

Simple question...should natural capital and human capital be a part of the valuation?

If not, let’s plow under Yellowstone and increase the birthdate. :thumb:
Let’s play “guess the fallacy”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Not sure what you mean. Do go on...

(Btw...it auto-corrected from birth rate to birth date)

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:13 pm
by JohnStOnge
kalm wrote:
An affordable cancer drug that is successful reduces GDP.
Not necessarily because it increases life expectancy. People that otherwise would've died from cancer at a given points will instead persist and have to be cared for for a longer period. It'd be likely, for instance, to increase the number of people requiring long term care in nursing homes.

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:19 pm
by kalm
JohnStOnge wrote:
kalm wrote:
An affordable cancer drug that is successful reduces GDP.
Not necessarily because it increases life expectancy. People that otherwise would've died from cancer at a given points will instead persist and have to be cared for for a longer period. It'd be likely, for instance, to increase the number of people requiring long term care in nursing homes.
Good point. Plus, if they're of working age their productivity also continues to add to GDP. On the other hand, older people in general can be less productive at certain jobs.

This is why I find it an interesting discussion.

Thanks for a non-smarmy reply...unlike these other fucks. :lol:

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:23 pm
by JohnStOnge
I dunno. Like I don't know about quantifying the value of that "natural capital" thing. Here is an article on it:

https://naturalcapitalforum.com/about/

Re: The real economy...

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:34 pm
by Ivytalk
This thread reminds me of the debates I’ve had with my BIL about the legal concept of materiality in financial reporting. Do you choose standard short-term quarterly financial data, or do you blend in “sustainability” measures of financial health that consider other factors like environmental and labor effects? Interesting stuff.