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https://www.salon.com/2018/01/01/florid ... publicans/

You know, I've never been that keen on barring felons from voting, but there is something funny about a liberal website basically admitting criminals are a donk voting block.

Pwns wrote:https://www.salon.com/2018/01/01/florid ... publicans/

You know, I've never been that keen on barring felons from voting, but there i something funny about a liberal website basically admitting criminals are a donk voting block.

every vote is sacred...

Chizzang wrote:

Pwns wrote:https://www.salon.com/2018/01/01/florid ... publicans/

You know, I've never been that keen on barring felons from voting, but there i something funny about a liberal website basically admitting criminals are a donk voting block.

every vote is sacred...

I thought it was "every sperm is sacred"

It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

Why don’t you just change your registration to D and get it over with, you self-righteous, faux-conservative bloviator? You probably have a photo of Edwin Edwards (that Donk moral paragon) on your mantel.

Ivytalk wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

Why don’t you just change your registration to D and get it over with, you self-righteous, faux-conservative bloviator? You probably have a photo of Edwin Edwards (that Donk moral paragon) on your mantel.

You conservative self righteous folks tend not to like other slightly adjacent self righteous folks...
Something about it rubs you guys the wrong way



I find John more charming now than ever

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

I thought you and other "conservatives" made this claim about FL after Obama carried it twice?

Just shows how important pulling in 29% of the Team Brown vote really is.

Chizzang wrote:

Ivytalk wrote: Why don’t you just change your registration to D and get it over with, you self-righteous, faux-conservative bloviator? You probably have a photo of Edwin Edwards (that Donk moral paragon) on your mantel.

You conservative self righteous folks tend not to like other slightly adjacent self righteous folks...
Something about it rubs you guys the wrong way



I find John more charming now than ever

To each his own, Smug Prick. I have nothing against libruls who are open about it.

Ivytalk wrote:

Chizzang wrote:
You conservative self righteous folks tend not to like other slightly adjacent self righteous folks...
Something about it rubs you guys the wrong way



I find John more charming now than ever

To each his own, Smug Prick. I have nothing against libruls who are open about it.

Just to be clear...
Johns self righteousness doesn't infringe on yours
You can both hold hands here

Chizzang wrote:

Ivytalk wrote: To each his own, Smug Prick. I have nothing against libruls who are open about it.

Just to be clear...
Johns self righteousness doesn't infringe on yours
You can both hold hands here

Well, you are master of that art, so I’ll take your word for it.

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

No matter how many times you say it it doesn't make it true. Minority groups, other than Blacks, have not, do not, and will not vote in large reliable blocs for one particular party for every election in the future, forever, as you like to claim they will. Even the guy who did the research that you now parrot over and over again reversed his findings and said that they do not point to a reliable voting bloc as you contend they will. Not that this will stop you from quoting faulty, disproven research, but it doesn't alter the fundamental premise that you are just flat out wrong (in this and in many other things).

Ivytalk wrote:

Chizzang wrote:
Just to be clear...
Johns self righteousness doesn't infringe on yours
You can both hold hands here

Well, you are master of that art, so I’ll take your word for it.

Holding hands..?
or smug self righteousness..?

Chizzang wrote:

Ivytalk wrote: Well, you are master of that art, so I’ll take your word for it.

Holding hands..?
or smug self righteousness..?

I think you know the answer....you have the trademark...you license it as you see fit

GannonFan wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

No matter how many times you say it it doesn't make it true. Minority groups, other than Blacks, have not, do not, and will not vote in large reliable blocs for one particular party for every election in the future, forever, as you like to claim they will. Even the guy who did the research that you now parrot over and over again reversed his findings and said that they do not point to a reliable voting bloc as you contend they will.

You're just factually incorrect on the "have not" comment. Well, I guess one could quibble about what "large" is in terms of minority blocks. But I think it's reasonable to say minority groups other than Blacks have reliably voted by a substantial margin for Democrats up to now. Take hispanics. I can find the exit polling results for 11 Presidential elections going back through 1976. Percent hispanics voting Republican ranged from 18% through 44%. And the 44% is kind of an outlier. 10 of the 11 elections had 37% or less of hispanics voting Republican.

The 44% was interesting because that was G.W. Bush. He did particularly well. But the last three Presidential elections saw Republicans getting 31%, 27%, and 28% of the hispanic vote.

Asians are interesting because when exit polling started looking at them they were voting majority Republican. But the trend has been consistently towards Democrats since then. Here's what it looks like:



I went ahead and included Blacks and Hispanics since 1992 since I already had that table. But you can see what the deal is.

As far as the guy you say I parrot: I don't even know who he is. My observations have always been based on looking directly at exit polling. It's my own research. You look at exit polling and it's OBVIOUS that if something doesn't change in terms of how non Whites vote it's bad news for Republicans.

JohnStOnge wrote: My observations have always been based on looking directly at exit polling.

Still banking on exit polling I see.

SDHornet wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote:It doesn't really matter in the long term. I mean, if it happens it might make Florida move into the column of a reliably blue state in Presidential elections a little quicker. But Florida is already moving in that direction and it will happen unless something changes in the fundamental trends pertaining to the way demographic groups vote.

I thought you and other "conservatives" made this claim about FL after Obama carried it twice?

Just shows how important pulling in 29% of the Team Brown vote really is.

Florida has moved into being a swing state for now. It flips back and forth. Nevertheless, it's pretty obvious that it will move into the blue column over time if something doesn't change in the way non Whites vote. This time the non White vote was 71% to 24% for Clinton over Trump. During the last election in which I can find State by State exit polling data, 2008, it was 74% to 26% (note that in this last election it's apparent that more people voted third party).

It's not rocket science to realize that if non whites continue to vote 2:1 or 3:1 for Demorats and non whites continue to expand as a percentage of the electorate in Florida that's not good news for Republicans.

BTW, McCain pulled 42% of the "team brown" vote in Florida in 2008. Trump pulled 35% of the "team brown" vote in 2016. It's not a "getting better" thing. "Team brown" is growing as a percentage of the population in that State and there is no indication that "Team brown" is significantly moving away from voting by a substantial margin for the Democrat.

JohnStOnge wrote:

GannonFan wrote:
No matter how many times you say it it doesn't make it true. Minority groups, other than Blacks, have not, do not, and will not vote in large reliable blocs for one particular party for every election in the future, forever, as you like to claim they will. Even the guy who did the research that you now parrot over and over again reversed his findings and said that they do not point to a reliable voting bloc as you contend they will.

You're just factually incorrect on the "have not" comment. Well, I guess one could quibble about what "large" is in terms of minority blocks. But I think it's reasonable to say minority groups other than Blacks have reliably voted by a substantial margin for Democrats up to now. Take hispanics. I can find the exit polling results for 11 Presidential elections going back through 1976. Percent hispanics voting Republican ranged from 18% through 44%. And the 44% is kind of an outlier. 10 of the 11 elections had 37% or less of hispanics voting Republican.

The 44% was interesting because that was G.W. Bush. He did particularly well. But the last three Presidential elections saw Republicans getting 31%, 27%, and 28% of the hispanic vote.

Asians are interesting because when exit polling started looking at them they were voting majority Republican. But the trend has been consistently towards Democrats since then. Here's what it looks like:



I went ahead and included Blacks and Hispanics since 1992 since I already had that table. But you can see what the deal is.

As far as the guy you say I parrot: I don't even know who he is. My observations have always been based on looking directly at exit polling. It's my own research. You look at exit polling and it's OBVIOUS that if something doesn't change in terms of how non Whites vote it's bad news for Republicans.

You cherry picked only half the federal elections since 1992.

CAA Flagship wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote: My observations have always been based on looking directly at exit polling.

Still banking on exit polling I see.

Do you seriously doubt what the exit polls have to say about how racial groups vote? Exit polls are not designed to call the race. They are designed to get insight into how different groups voted, how people that felt certain ways voted, etc.

And I guarantee you that both Republican and Democrat professionals pay close attention the the exit polling results. Both sides know that non Whites vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and they both act accordingly.

BDKJMU wrote: You cherry picked only half the federal elections since 1992.

If you can find exit polling results for a bunch of State and or local elections, feel free.

I think one thing that would lend insight would be to look at jurisdictions in which Whites are a minority. How often do we see Republicans win elections in such jurisdictions? What would you bet the answer would be?

I'm sure it must happen. But I don't think it happens a lot.

JohnStOnge wrote:

BDKJMU wrote: You cherry picked only half the federal elections since 1992.

If you can find exit polling results for a bunch of State and or local elections, feel free.

I think one thing that would lend insight would be to look at jurisdictions in which Whites are a minority. How often do we see Republicans win elections in such jurisdictions? What would you bet the answer would be?

I'm sure it must happen. But I don't think it happens a lot.

You must be horribly conflicted, Mr. St. Wronge. On the one hand, in your heart of hearts, you would prefer to see white folks start reproducing like jackrabbits to improve the genetic stock of the nation. On the other hand, you hate Republicans and wish to consign them to a perpetual minority so your Donk friends can start winning elections. Must be hell for you.

Ivytalk wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote:
If you can find exit polling results for a bunch of State and or local elections, feel free.

I think one thing that would lend insight would be to look at jurisdictions in which Whites are a minority. How often do we see Republicans win elections in such jurisdictions? What would you bet the answer would be?

I'm sure it must happen. But I don't think it happens a lot.

You must be horribly conflicted, Mr. St. Wronge. On the one hand, in your heart of hearts, you would prefer to see white folks start reproducing like jackrabbits to improve the genetic stock of the nation. On the other hand, you hate Republicans and wish to consign them to a perpetual minority so your Donk friends can start winning elections. Must be hell for you.

Something about this thread has got you pretty grumpy...

JohnStOnge wrote:

CAA Flagship wrote: Still banking on exit polling I see.

Do you seriously doubt what the exit polls have to say about how racial groups vote? Exit polls are not designed to call the race. They are designed to get insight into how different groups voted, how people that felt certain ways voted, etc.

And I guarantee you that both Republican and Democrat professionals pay close attention the the exit polling results. Both sides know that non Whites vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and they both act accordingly.

1. I do not take the people giving the information seriously.
2. I do not take the people gathering the information seriously.
3. I do not take the people publishing the information seriously.

Chizzang wrote:

Ivytalk wrote: You must be horribly conflicted, Mr. St. Wronge. On the one hand, in your heart of hearts, you would prefer to see white folks start reproducing like jackrabbits to improve the genetic stock of the nation. On the other hand, you hate Republicans and wish to consign them to a perpetual minority so your Donk friends can start winning elections. Must be hell for you.

Something about this thread has got you pretty grumpy...

I blame the weather...

CAA Flagship wrote:

JohnStOnge wrote:
Do you seriously doubt what the exit polls have to say about how racial groups vote? Exit polls are not designed to call the race. They are designed to get insight into how different groups voted, how people that felt certain ways voted, etc.

And I guarantee you that both Republican and Democrat professionals pay close attention the the exit polling results. Both sides know that non Whites vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and they both act accordingly.

1. I do not take the people giving the information seriously.
2. I do not take the people gathering the information seriously.
3. I do not take the people publishing the information seriously.

Yup, in this day and age people are fantastic at masking their information. I have zero faith in exit polling because I think people have gotten so much better at lying, especially in surveys. Gallup regularly acknowledges that exit polling is extremely difficult these days in this and other political environments.