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Why Growth Will Fall
William D. Nordhaus AUGUST 18, 2016 ISSUE
The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living Since the Civil War
by Robert J. Gordon

Robert Gordon has written a magnificent book on the economic history of the United States over the last one and a half centuries. His study focuses on what he calls the “special century” from 1870 to 1970—in which living standards increased more rapidly than at any time before or after. The book is without peer in providing a statistical analysis of the uneven pace of growth and technological change, in describing the technologies that led to the remarkable progress during the special century, and in concluding with a provocative hypothesis that the future is unlikely to bring anything approaching the economic gains of the earlier period.

The message of Rise and Fall is this. For most of human history, economic progress moved at a crawl. According to the economic historian Bradford DeLong, from the first rock tools used by humanoids three million years ago, to the earliest cities ten thousand years ago, through the Middle Ages, to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution around 1800, living standards doubled (with a growth of 0.00002 percent per year). Another doubling took place over the subsequent period to 1870. Then, according to standard calculations, the world economy took off.

Gordon focuses on growth in the United States. Living standards, as measured by GDP per capita or real wages, accelerated after 1870. The growth rate looks like an inverted U. Productivity growth rose from the late nineteenth century and peaked in the 1950s, but has slowed to a crawl since 1970. In designating 1870–1970 as the special century, Gordon emphasizes that the period since 1970 has been less special. He argues that the pace of innovation has slowed since 1970 (a point that will surprise many people), and furthermore that the gains from technological improvement have been shared less broadly (a point that is widely appreciated and true).

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

houndawg wrote:I feel bad for the many here who have never seen the US at its best and never will....

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

HI54UNI wrote:

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

That would be true except there are too many lazy leeches that don't want to work and won't take the jobs because they are better than a construction job.

His study focuses on what he calls the “special century” from 1870 to 1970—in which living standards increased more rapidly than at any time before or after.

CAA Flagship wrote:

His study focuses on what he calls the “special century” from 1870 to 1970—in which living standards increased more rapidly than at any time before or after.

In the 1960's, color TV was rare, no cable or satellite, no computers or internet, microwave ovens were rare, no cell phones, the 8-track tape was yet to be introduced, air conditioning in cars and homes was only for the wealthy, convenience stores were not as convenient as they are today, many vegetables at grocery stores were seasonal, .........

Did the author die in 1971, or is "Living Standards" different from "Standards of Living"?

kalm wrote:

CAA Flagship wrote:
In the 1960's, color TV was rare, no cable or satellite, no computers or internet, microwave ovens were rare, no cell phones, the 8-track tape was yet to be introduced, air conditioning in cars and homes was only for the wealthy, convenience stores were not as convenient as they are today, many vegetables at grocery stores were seasonal, .........

Did the author die in 1971, or is "Living Standards" different from "Standards of Living"?

HI54UNI wrote:

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

That would be true except there are too many lazy leeches that don't want to work and won't take the jobs because they are better than a construction job.

Baldy wrote:

SDHornet wrote:If this country ever gets around to properly maintaining/replacing infrastructure then there will be more than enough well paying jobs to go around. Lots of infrastructure systems (roads, water distribution system, wastewater collection systems, the list is endless) are at or beyond their estimated useful life; it’s only a matter of time until municipalities/agencies are forced to do something about it (see catastrophic failure).

Excuse me, but Obama's Stimulus Plan took care of our crumbling infrastructure.

Don't you remember?

kalm wrote:

CAA Flagship wrote:
In the 1960's, color TV was rare, no cable or satellite, no computers or internet, microwave ovens were rare, no cell phones, the 8-track tape was yet to be introduced, air conditioning in cars and homes was only for the wealthy, convenience stores were not as convenient as they are today, many vegetables at grocery stores were seasonal, .........

Did the author die in 1971, or is "Living Standards" different from "Standards of Living"?

SDHornet wrote:

Baldy wrote: Excuse me, but Obama's Stimulus Plan took care of our crumbling infrastructure.

Don't you remember?

Yeah, that still didn't address the government incompetence wrt maintaining what they have now.

Baldy wrote:

SDHornet wrote: Yeah, that still didn't address the government incompetence wrt maintaining what they have now.

Government incompetence?

No such thing.

SDHornet wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
That would be true except there are too many lazy leeches that don't want to work and won't take the jobs because they are better than a construction job.

Until they saw how much they can make an hour operating heavy equipment or working in a skilled trade...and if that fails there will always be illegals to hire.

HI54UNI wrote:

SDHornet wrote: Until they saw how much they can make an hour operating heavy equipment or working in a skilled trade...and if that fails there will always be illegals to hire.

The illegals will end up doing it. Too many white people are too lazy or too "good" for a job that involves any manual labor. True story - when I worked for the city we had to hire a garbage collector. The way the union contract was written the wage during the 6 month probationary period wasn't the best but once you got past that the pay was pretty good and the benefits were very good. The benefits started right away, only the wage was impacted during the probationary period. I had a guy get up and leave in the middle of an interview because, "the starting pay isn't much better than what I'm getting on unemployment right now. Why would I want to work?"

And unless they install a screen on a shovel millennials will never do it.