California Democratic Primary Polls
Posted: Fri May 27, 2016 1:38 pm
Didn't see an existing thread where this fit exactly so started a new one. Lots of news the past few days about Clinton and Sanders being in a dead heat (Clinton at +2) in a California poll. But take a look at the current real clear politics average of polls:
Notice that there was another poll taken within the same time frame as the one that has been making the news that has Clinton at +18! In fact if you had to pick one that represents a later time frame that's the one you pick because the survey was conducted May 19 - 22 while the one that has Clinton at only +2 was conducted May 13 - 22.
Really, though, what it shows is how much uncertainty there is. Also neither poll captures any effect of that Inspector General's report on Clinton's e mail thing.
I do think it's interesting, though, that the media are putting so much emphasis on the poll that shows it as close while I haven't seen a television report on the poll representing the latter portion of the same time frame that shows Clinton way ahead. Not really a surprise. But interesting.
Notice that there was another poll taken within the same time frame as the one that has been making the news that has Clinton at +18! In fact if you had to pick one that represents a later time frame that's the one you pick because the survey was conducted May 19 - 22 while the one that has Clinton at only +2 was conducted May 13 - 22.
Really, though, what it shows is how much uncertainty there is. Also neither poll captures any effect of that Inspector General's report on Clinton's e mail thing.
I do think it's interesting, though, that the media are putting so much emphasis on the poll that shows it as close while I haven't seen a television report on the poll representing the latter portion of the same time frame that shows Clinton way ahead. Not really a surprise. But interesting.