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I don't see this stopping here. Their creditability as far as investments has been down graded and their stock market already took a hit. As the billions of $$$ of losses start adding up we'll hear more related to this!



http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/21 ... on-crimea/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

More

Sanctions and S&P may spoil Russia's Crimean party

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101513639" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Next Province to leave?


http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/21 ... eferendum/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

BlueHen86 wrote:Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

I'd actually take the other side - I'm not sure I really see the negative right now. I don't see any really hard sanctions coming down from the West right now and frankly, it looks like Europe has gone out of their way to not endorse the stronger response that the US was pushing for. Right now, it looks like weak sanctions and nothing more.

As for Western Europe, what makes you think they would build up their armed forces? If it came down to letting Russia scoop up bits and pieces of former land versus spending money to arm themselves, I see Western Europe offering up the land (Latvia maybe?) first. There's no appetite in Europe to challenge Russia on any of this right now - they're more concerned with where the fuel they import is coming from and how much it costs - they don't want to choose sides against Russia right now.

BlueHen86 wrote:Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

You're still fighting wars in the 20th century. Russia doesn't need to spend hundreds of billions on planes, ships, and other crap.

No one needs to build up an army. The minute Russian tanks roll into an area that isn't historically Russian, a few bombs will go off and then the missiles will fly. The minute German tanks roll into an area that isn't traditionally the West, a few bombs will go off and missiles will fly.

If there is anything left, the losing side will supply arms to the locals, IED's will slow down any type of economic gains and targets will start to be industry leaders along with the average Joe. Yup, the winner will be the proud owner of the next Detroit...only worse.

GannonFan wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

I'd actually take the other side - I'm not sure I really see the negative right now. I don't see any really hard sanctions coming down from the West right now and frankly, it looks like Europe has gone out of their way to not endorse the stronger response that the US was pushing for. Right now, it looks like weak sanctions and nothing more.

As for Western Europe, what makes you think they would build up their armed forces? If it came down to letting Russia scoop up bits and pieces of former land versus spending money to arm themselves, I see Western Europe offering up the land (Latvia maybe?) first. There's no appetite in Europe to challenge Russia on any of this right now - they're more concerned with where the fuel they import is coming from and how much it costs - they don't want to choose sides against Russia right now.

I guess we'll see. Letting Putin expand territory via land grabs reminds me a lot of what Hitler did. The more you allow, the bolder Putin may get. He can probably take as much of Ukraine as he wants, but if he starts moving west I think things could get ugly.

Either way, I don't want this to be our problem. If Germany, Britain, France et al. aren't going to stand up to Putin I don't think we should do it.

Cluck U wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

You're still fighting wars in the 20th century. Russia doesn't need to spend hundreds of billions on planes, ships, and other crap.

No one needs to build up an army. The minute Russian tanks roll into an area that isn't historically Russian, a few bombs will go off and then the missiles will fly. The minute German tanks roll into an area that isn't traditionally the West, a few bombs will go off and missiles will fly.

If there is anything left, the losing side will supply arms to the locals, IED's will slow down any type of economic gains and targets will start to be industry leaders along with the average Joe. Yup, the winner will be the proud owner of the next Detroit...only worse.

It's a lot easier for Russian tanks to roll into an area that doesn't current have tanks, my point is that Western Europe might want to keep that in mind.

I also realize that war is evolving, but I still think you need bodies if you want to occupy territory. We can blow the crap out of anybody from the safety of a bunker in a mountain, but if we want to occupy turf we need people to go in and claim it. Once again, Western Europe might want to keep that in mind. Seems to ne they are relying on us way too much, and they don't seem to have our back here.

I think we agree, this shouldn't be about the US.

IMO you are missing the point. This is the 1st "public" part of an economic war that is taking place. It's not a shooting war. The EU is currently negotiating contracts with the Ukraine that cut Russia completely out. Russia WILL feel the effects of the current sanctions on their economy and they will feel it soon!

Also at risk should this escalate to further sanctions is the oil and gas that Russia exports to Europe. That is Russia's MAJOR export and the mainstay of their economy. Should Putin threaten to shut these exports off thinking that Europe will shrivel and die without them, I'm betting Europe tells them to go right ahead. They can get them else where!

BlueHen86 wrote:

Cluck U wrote:
You're still fighting wars in the 20th century. Russia doesn't need to spend hundreds of billions on planes, ships, and other crap.

No one needs to build up an army. The minute Russian tanks roll into an area that isn't historically Russian, a few bombs will go off and then the missiles will fly. The minute German tanks roll into an area that isn't traditionally the West, a few bombs will go off and missiles will fly.

If there is anything left, the losing side will supply arms to the locals, IED's will slow down any type of economic gains and targets will start to be industry leaders along with the average Joe. Yup, the winner will be the proud owner of the next Detroit...only worse.

It's a lot easier for Russian tanks to roll into an area that doesn't current have tanks, my point is that Western Europe might want to keep that in mind.

I also realize that war is evolving, but I still think you need bodies if you want to occupy territory. We can blow the crap out of anybody from the safety of a bunker in a mountain, but if we want to occupy turf we need people to go in and claim it. Once again, Western Europe might want to keep that in mind. Seems to ne they are relying on us way too much, and they don't seem to have our back here.

I think we agree, this shouldn't be about the US.

And if we arm the Ukraine, then Russia will arm the people in the eastern parts of Ukraine and there will be civil war...all while Russia says they are helping freedom fighters.

Woo-hoo!

It doesn't help that the head of the Ukrainian department that is supposed to uphold the freedom of the press is a hard leaning, Right-wing, nut job that recently forced the resignation of the head of one of their TV stations. The TV producer, apparently a person of Russian decent, showed the Russian flag being raised over a Crimean base.

All that did was give credence to Russia's claim that Ukrainians are treating Russians poorly and as second class citizens.

Obama...defending a hard line, right-wing nut job. It doesn't get any better than this.

VictorG wrote:IMO you are missing the point. This is the 1st "public" part of an economic war that is taking place. It's not a shooting war. The EU is currently negotiating contracts with the Ukraine that cut Russia completely out. Russia WILL feel the effects of the current sanctions on their economy and they will feel it soon!

Also at risk should this escalate to further sanctions is the oil and gas that Russia exports to Europe. That is Russia's MAJOR export and the mainstay of their economy. Should Putin threaten to shut these exports off thinking that Europe will shrivel and die without them, I'm betting Europe tells them to go right ahead. They can get them else where!

Big deal. Russia can ship their gas to the rest of the world.

And, if the rest of the world falls in line with America and starts to squeeze Russia too much, expect Russia to start supplying arms to some nasty groups that will impact Europe and America's trade routes and business opportunities.

China is waiting in the wings for an opportunity to have people look their way as the world leader/supplier. Let's see if they'll sit idly by...or if they'll stat making moves to have oil and other commodities traded in their currency.

Cluck U wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:
It's a lot easier for Russian tanks to roll into an area that doesn't current have tanks, my point is that Western Europe might want to keep that in mind.

I also realize that war is evolving, but I still think you need bodies if you want to occupy territory. We can blow the crap out of anybody from the safety of a bunker in a mountain, but if we want to occupy turf we need people to go in and claim it. Once again, Western Europe might want to keep that in mind. Seems to ne they are relying on us way too much, and they don't seem to have our back here.

I think we agree, this shouldn't be about the US.

And if we arm the Ukraine, then Russia will arm the people in the eastern parts of Ukraine and there will be civil war...all while Russia says they are helping freedom fighters.

Woo-hoo!

It doesn't help that the head of the Ukrainian department that is supposed to uphold the freedom of the press is a hard leaning, Right-wing, nut job that recently forced the resignation of the head of one of their TV stations. The TV producer, apparently a person of Russian decent, showed the Russian flag being raised over a Crimean base.

All that did was give credence to Russia's claim that Ukrainians are treating Russians poorly and as second class citizens.

Obama...defending a hard line, right-wing nut job. It doesn't get any better than this.

I didn't say we should arm Ukraine. I don't want this to be our problem.

Cluck U wrote:

VictorG wrote:IMO you are missing the point. This is the 1st "public" part of an economic war that is taking place. It's not a shooting war. The EU is currently negotiating contracts with the Ukraine that cut Russia completely out. Russia WILL feel the effects of the current sanctions on their economy and they will feel it soon!

Also at risk should this escalate to further sanctions is the oil and gas that Russia exports to Europe. That is Russia's MAJOR export and the mainstay of their economy. Should Putin threaten to shut these exports off thinking that Europe will shrivel and die without them, I'm betting Europe tells them to go right ahead. They can get them else where!

Big deal. Russia can ship their gas to the rest of the world.

And, if the rest of the world falls in line with America and starts to squeeze Russia too much, expect Russia to start supplying arms to some nasty groups that will impact Europe and America's trade routes and business opportunities.

China is waiting in the wings for an opportunity to have people look their way as the world leader/supplier. Let's see if they'll sit idly by...or if they'll stat making moves to have oil and other commodities traded in their currency.

China is dying for gas and oil. They are looking BIG TIME to Iraq for their needs.If Russia can't sell their gas and oil to Europe they won't have anywhere else to sell it because at this point with Europe, the west and at this point China (unless they flip flop which I do NOT think they will) against them....who else is left?

Russian economy feeling impact of sanctions, says US

http://www.firstpost.com/world/russian- ... 44137.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

VictorG wrote:Russian economy feeling impact of sanctions, says US

http://www.firstpost.com/world/russian- ... 44137.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

wrong

CID1990 wrote:

VictorG wrote:Russian economy feeling impact of sanctions, says US

http://www.firstpost.com/world/russian- ... 44137.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

wrong

Heard the Russian stock market dropped 3% today. Anyones guess if that's accurate. I still think Russia overcomes these "tough" sanctions.

GannonFan wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:Crimea will probably turn out to be a long term mistake for Russia. Being ostracized by the west is not in their long term best interests. Also, if Western Europe decides that Russia is a threat they could build up their armed forces. I'm fairly certain that Russia doesn't want a well armed Germany. Russia could respond by bulking up their armed forces, but they already lost the arms race battle once.

I'd actually take the other side - I'm not sure I really see the negative right now. I don't see any really hard sanctions coming down from the West right now and frankly, it looks like Europe has gone out of their way to not endorse the stronger response that the US was pushing for. Right now, it looks like weak sanctions and nothing more.

As for Western Europe, what makes you think they would build up their armed forces? If it came down to letting Russia scoop up bits and pieces of former land versus spending money to arm themselves, I see Western Europe offering up the land (Latvia maybe?) first. There's no appetite in Europe to challenge Russia on any of this right now - they're more concerned with where the fuel they import is coming from and how much it costs - they don't want to choose sides against Russia right now.

^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

SDHornet wrote: ^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

Well, I think Europe will stand against Russia and win! BECAUSE this is an economic war!!!!

BTW people, tanks are only good against 3rd world military's anymore.....too many shoulder carried, drone carried weapons can destroy today's modern tank. Not to speak of the air superiority that NATO has over Russia......unless it went nuclear, Russia gets ass fuc%ed in a shooting war against Europe and it's allies. (We all know how Putin fees about ass Fuc%king!!!!)


BUT...it won't come to that thank goodness....PLUS...This is an interesting debate because it will play out before out eyes in the next month or so....

VictorG wrote:

SDHornet wrote: ^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

Well, I think Europe will stand against Russia and win! BECAUSE this is an economic war!!!!

BTW people, tanks are only good against 3rd world military's anymore.....too many shoulder carried, drone carried weapons can destroy today's modern tank. Not to speak of the air superiority that NATO has over Russia......unless it went nuclear, Russia gets ass fuc%ed in a shooting war against Europe and it's allies. (We all know how Putin fees about ass Fuc%king!!!!)


BUT...it won't come to that thank goodness....PLUS...This is an interesting debate because it will play out before out eyes in the next month or so....

The issue is when you say "NATO" you really mean "US forces and some minor EU support". The whole point is to not have our forces in harms way and let the EU deal with their own problem.

Yes I agree we will see it all play out in front of us.

SDHornet wrote:

GannonFan wrote:
I'd actually take the other side - I'm not sure I really see the negative right now. I don't see any really hard sanctions coming down from the West right now and frankly, it looks like Europe has gone out of their way to not endorse the stronger response that the US was pushing for. Right now, it looks like weak sanctions and nothing more.

As for Western Europe, what makes you think they would build up their armed forces? If it came down to letting Russia scoop up bits and pieces of former land versus spending money to arm themselves, I see Western Europe offering up the land (Latvia maybe?) first. There's no appetite in Europe to challenge Russia on any of this right now - they're more concerned with where the fuel they import is coming from and how much it costs - they don't want to choose sides against Russia right now.

^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

Russian tanks don't need to learn how to swim to get to:
-Estonia
-Latvia
-Lithuania
-Romania
-Slovakia
-Slovenia
-Albania
-Croatia
-Czech Republic
-Hungary
-Poland
-Belgium
-Denmark
-France
-Italy
-Luxembourg
-Netherlands
-Norway
-Portugal
-Greece
-Germany
-Spain

All of the above are members of NATO, in addtion to US, UK, Iceland, Canada. Article Five of the treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.

BDKJMU wrote:

SDHornet wrote: ^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

Russian tanks don't need to learn how to swim to get to:
-Estonia
-Latvia
-Lithuania
-Romania
-Slovakia
-Slovenia
-Albania
-Croatia
-Czech Republic
-Hungary
-Poland
-Belgium
-Denmark
-France
-Italy
-Luxembourg
-Netherlands
-Norway
-Portugal
-Greece
-Germany
-Spain

All of the above are members of NATO, in addtion to US, UK, Iceland, Canada. Article Five of the treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.

These 3 are the ones I would worry about. I don't think he would mess with the rest.

VictorG wrote:

SDHornet wrote: ^ I agree. Europe standing up to Russia?

That said this isn't our problem. Enless Rusian tanks know how to swim, no real reason for us to worry.

Well, I think Europe will stand against Russia and win! BECAUSE this is an economic war!!!!

BTW people, tanks are only good against 3rd world military's anymore.....too many shoulder carried, drone carried weapons can destroy today's modern tank. Not to speak of the air superiority that NATO has over Russia......unless it went nuclear, Russia gets ass fuc%ed in a shooting war against Europe and it's allies. (We all know how Putin fees about ass Fuc%king!!!!)


BUT...it won't come to that thank goodness....PLUS...This is an interesting debate because it will play out before out eyes in the next month or so....

What makes you think that Europe wants to get involved in an economic war with Russia? We already have evidence right now, in this particular issue with Crimea, with Germany, one of the bigger receivers of Russian energy, being the voice that we shouldn't go too far with sanctions. If Germany is unwilling to see their energy supplies threatened, what makes you think the rest of Europe has the stomach to tighten the economic screws on Russia? And heck, for that matter, what makes you think even the US is willing to do so? If we need to ship natural gas and other energy goods to Europe to make up for Russia pulling back their supplies, that'll jack up prices here and people were already crying about propane prices this winter.

I think we do have the tools to economically strangle Russia - I just don't think there's a lot of committment out there, especially from Europe (and that's from Germany's recent reluctance to hurt Russia) to use those tools. Face it, Europe cares little for anything that isn't Europe, so the former Soviet countries beware - no one is going to help them if Russia wants to reabsorb them.

Germany Warns Russia of 'Massive Damage' Over Crimea

"LONDON — German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned Moscow that Europe could inflict 'massive economic and political damage' to Russia if the situation in the Ukrainian region of Crimea escalates.

Germany now appears willing to use its diplomatic and economic muscle to turn up the heat on Moscow, analysts say. And they add that Merkel, a fluent Russian speaker, has been Europe's prime interlocutor with Russian President Vladimir Putin."

http://www.voanews.com/content/germany- ... 71469.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Weak rouble will expose Putin's bluster to Russians

Here is the last half of the article:

But Russia’s economic fundamentals are weakening. All of this has taken place at a time when structural constraints were already starting to hold back Russia’s economy. The oil and gas boom of the past decade is fizzling out. Before the current upset, economic growth this year was likely to be around 1pc. In the light of recent events, it wouldn’t take much to tip Russia into recession.

And in these circumstances her financial strength would not last long. The rebuilding of the country’s balance sheet from the ashes of its 1998 financial crisis was founded on bumper oil and gas revenues. But higher Russian consumption has changed things dramatically. The Russian government’s budget has swung from a surplus of 7.5pc of GDP in the middle part of the past decade, to a deficit of 0.5pc of GDP last year. Against this backdrop, threats of retaliation by the Kremlin are likely to be hollow. Shipments of oil and gas to Europe account for one-third of Russia’s exports and revenues from this account for a quarter of all Government revenue. Russia needs its energy exports to Europe more than Europe does.

If things turn ugly for Russia, there could be serious political consequences too. At present, Mr Putin is absurdly popular in Russia for taking back “our Crimea”. But the oligarchs who surround and support him will be none too pleased about the diminution in their fortunes and their possible loss of liquidity and travel possibilities.

Meanwhile, popular opinion could turn. The government controls the media tightly and will doubtless be able to shield the populace from the evidence of Russian decline. But there will be one thing that Mr Putin will not be able to fudge or cover up – the financial markets. If things continue in the current vein, the Russian stock market will give some clue as to what is going on.

The most important variable, though, will be the exchange rate. Some suggest that a weaker rouble will give a shot in the arm for the Russian economy by improving competitiveness. Accordingly, the Russian government should welcome rather than fear rouble weakness. But for a lower exchange rate to boost an economy, there have to be spare resources available to be drawn into net exports. The evidence suggests that in today’s Russia there are not. Accordingly, the weaker currency will simply produce higher inflation. Meanwhile, a weak rouble will be a key signal to Russians that, despite Mr Putin’s bluster, all is not well.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... sians.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GannonFan wrote:

VictorG wrote:
Well, I think Europe will stand against Russia and win! BECAUSE this is an economic war!!!!

BTW people, tanks are only good against 3rd world military's anymore.....too many shoulder carried, drone carried weapons can destroy today's modern tank. Not to speak of the air superiority that NATO has over Russia......unless it went nuclear, Russia gets ass fuc%ed in a shooting war against Europe and it's allies. (We all know how Putin fees about ass Fuc%king!!!!)


BUT...it won't come to that thank goodness....PLUS...This is an interesting debate because it will play out before out eyes in the next month or so....

What makes you think that Europe wants to get involved in an economic war with Russia? We already have evidence right now, in this particular issue with Crimea, with Germany, one of the bigger receivers of Russian energy, being the voice that we shouldn't go too far with sanctions. If Germany is unwilling to see their energy supplies threatened, what makes you think the rest of Europe has the stomach to tighten the economic screws on Russia? And heck, for that matter, what makes you think even the US is willing to do so? If we need to ship natural gas and other energy goods to Europe to make up for Russia pulling back their supplies, that'll jack up prices here and people were already crying about propane prices this winter.

I think we do have the tools to economically strangle Russia - I just don't think there's a lot of committment out there, especially from Europe (and that's from Germany's recent reluctance to hurt Russia) to use those tools. Face it, Europe cares little for anything that isn't Europe, so the former Soviet countries beware - no one is going to help them if Russia wants to reabsorb them.

Not true for Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. They are NATO members. Other NATO countries, which is practically all of Europe and North America, are bound by treaty to help them if Russia attacks.