The Ukraine Crisis

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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

There’s good people on both sides or something….


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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by GannonFan »

SDHornet wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 3:39 pm The "Ukraine is Winning" narratives are collapsing in real time. I've heard some of the stuff SG is talking about, although not sure how widespread it it is. Could just be the younger folks don't care and have found a way to avoid the war, but not sure how that is even possible given the mobilization orders Ukraine is under. However the fact that AFU are sending their territorial defenses to the front is telling.

When this carnage stops, it'll be interesting to see how many lives (and territory) could have been saved had the West allowed Zelensky to broker a ceasefire with Putin to cut their losses.
I don't get your position here. Russia has been wanting to take all of Ukraine for years now. They started with Crimea 7 years ago. Now they're in the eastern regions, just wanting a little more. Russia has already said that Ukraine isn't a real nation and is really still destined to be part of Russia. So how does any negotiation right now guarantee the territorial security of any part of Ukraine going forward? Ukraine can certainly quit, but how can you honestly say that negotiating a peace now wouldn't just be more appeasement?
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 7:46 am
SDHornet wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 3:39 pm The "Ukraine is Winning" narratives are collapsing in real time. I've heard some of the stuff SG is talking about, although not sure how widespread it it is. Could just be the younger folks don't care and have found a way to avoid the war, but not sure how that is even possible given the mobilization orders Ukraine is under. However the fact that AFU are sending their territorial defenses to the front is telling.

When this carnage stops, it'll be interesting to see how many lives (and territory) could have been saved had the West allowed Zelensky to broker a ceasefire with Putin to cut their losses.
I don't get your position here. Russia has been wanting to take all of Ukraine for years now. They started with Crimea 7 years ago. Now they're in the eastern regions, just wanting a little more. Russia has already said that Ukraine isn't a real nation and is really still destined to be part of Russia. So how does any negotiation right now guarantee the territorial security of any part of Ukraine going forward? Ukraine can certainly quit, but how can you honestly say that negotiating a peace now wouldn't just be more appeasement?
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

kalm wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 4:39 am There’s good people on both sides or something….


Now it's the Russian's that are the nazis. The double triple switcharoo in progress. MSM with loads of nazi articles on Ukrainian units, but like magic, they became the "good nazis" in February. :rofl:
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

GannonFan wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 7:46 am
SDHornet wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 3:39 pm The "Ukraine is Winning" narratives are collapsing in real time. I've heard some of the stuff SG is talking about, although not sure how widespread it it is. Could just be the younger folks don't care and have found a way to avoid the war, but not sure how that is even possible given the mobilization orders Ukraine is under. However the fact that AFU are sending their territorial defenses to the front is telling.

When this carnage stops, it'll be interesting to see how many lives (and territory) could have been saved had the West allowed Zelensky to broker a ceasefire with Putin to cut their losses.
I don't get your position here. Russia has been wanting to take all of Ukraine for years now. They started with Crimea 7 years ago. Now they're in the eastern regions, just wanting a little more. Russia has already said that Ukraine isn't a real nation and is really still destined to be part of Russia. So how does any negotiation right now guarantee the territorial security of any part of Ukraine going forward? Ukraine can certainly quit, but how can you honestly say that negotiating a peace now wouldn't just be more appeasement?
Because now there isn't much from stopping Russia from taking whatever they want. Why would Russia come to the table at this point? Early on they could have ceded some of the territory Russia wanted to stave off destruction elsewhere (for the time being at least and regrouped and gotten more NATO training and gear)...not really sure what leverage they have now.

It's all Monday morning QBing at this point, so meh. Russia ended up getting the territory they wanted either way.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

Odds are they died somewhere in Ukraine.

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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

SDHornet wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 9:02 pm
kalm wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 4:39 am There’s good people on both sides or something….


Now it's the Russian's that are the nazis. The double triple switcharoo in progress. MSM with loads of nazi articles on Ukrainian units, but like magic, they became the "good nazis" in February. :rofl:
Hint: there are Nazi’s in Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., hell probably even a few at the CPAC conference in Hungary. They can all be legitimately invaded? Or is it proving to be a bullshit excuse you willingly fell for?

:|
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

There is no off ramp for Putin. For several obvious reasons.
The second assumption made by those advocating off-ramps is that Russia, even if it were to begin negotiating, would stick to the agreements it signed. Even an ordinary cease-fire has to involve concessions on both sides, and anything more substantive would require a longer list of pledges and promises. But brazen dishonesty is now a normal part of Russian foreign policy as well as domestic propaganda. In the run-up to the war, senior Russian officials repeatedly denied that they intended to invade Ukraine, Russian state television mocked the Western warnings of invasion as “hysterical,” and Putin personally promised the French president that no war was coming. None of that was true. No future promises made by the Russian state, so long as it is controlled by Putin, can be believed either.

Nor does Russia seem to be interested in adhering to multiple treaties it is theoretically obligated to follow, among them the Geneva Convention and the United Nations’ Genocide Convention. Russian troops’ behavior in this war demonstrates that there is no international agreement that Putin can be counted on to respect. Regardless of what he might promise during peace negotiations, Western officials would have to assume that any Ukrainian populations handed over to Russia would be subject to arrests, terror, mass theft, and rape on an unprecedented scale; that Ukrainian cities would be incorporated into Russia against the will of the public; and that, as in 2014, when Russian proxies in the Donbas agreed to a truce, any cease-fire would be temporary, lasting only as long as it would take for the Russian army to regroup, rearm, and start again. Putin has made clear that destroying Ukraine is, for him, an essential, even existential, goal. Where is the evidence that he has abandoned it?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ia/629940/
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by GannonFan »

SDHornet wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 9:06 pm
GannonFan wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 7:46 am

I don't get your position here. Russia has been wanting to take all of Ukraine for years now. They started with Crimea 7 years ago. Now they're in the eastern regions, just wanting a little more. Russia has already said that Ukraine isn't a real nation and is really still destined to be part of Russia. So how does any negotiation right now guarantee the territorial security of any part of Ukraine going forward? Ukraine can certainly quit, but how can you honestly say that negotiating a peace now wouldn't just be more appeasement?
Because now there isn't much from stopping Russia from taking whatever they want. Why would Russia come to the table at this point? Early on they could have ceded some of the territory Russia wanted to stave off destruction elsewhere (for the time being at least and regrouped and gotten more NATO training and gear)...not really sure what leverage they have now.

It's all Monday morning QBing at this point, so meh. Russia ended up getting the territory they wanted either way.
Then why try to negotiate anything? Russia's not going to abide by any restrictions that stop them from trying to fully absorb all of the Ukraine, so what's the point in trying to temporarily agree to anything with them? Ukraine is just as well off trying to keep Russia engaged in the field and having Russia stay deployed constantly - at least that requires Russia to feed and supply a large army in foreign territory while under constant attack. The alternative you propose would be the one where Russia gets to recoup and recover and rearm freely and then get to once again pick where and when they want to take even more Ukrainian territory a few years down the road until there's no more Ukraine to take. If I was a Ukrainian, I think I pick the former option. Ukraine's going to get NATO stuff in either case, and at least with an ongoing war there's less chance of the West deciding that they can go back to normal and dropping the pressure on Russia (again, making it easier for them to reorganize to take the next piece of Ukraine). If Russia is deadset on carving up Ukraine, as it seems they are, the best option from a Ukraine and NATO standpoint is to make it as costly and ruinous for Russia as possible. If you don't make unprovoked military aggression and territorial seizure difficult and painful, then everyone who could would do it.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

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Henry Kissinger agrees with me.
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:10 am Henry Kissinger agrees with me.
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
That’s a bold statement, Cotton.

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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:10 am Henry Kissinger agrees with me.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
That’s a bold statement, Cotton.

:rofl:
Is it better if I flip it and say that I agree with Kissenger? :kisswink:
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by GannonFan »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:10 am Henry Kissinger agrees with me.
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
Does Kissinger draw the line anywhere or is he of the belief that to continue the "proper place of Russia in the European balance of power" that Ukraine must be willing to give over it's sovereignty and be accommodating to becoming either part of Russia again or at least a satellite nation answering to Moscow? I mean, if it's to maintain the balance and Ukraine just has to suck it up and start speaking Russian I guess that's okay because Kissinger has deemed it so? How quaint. :ohno:
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by Skjellyfetti »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:10 am Henry Kissinger agrees with me.
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
And the NYT editorial board. :clap: Congrats!
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

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SeattleGriz wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:10 am Henry Kissinger agrees with me.
Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/henry-ki ... 12366.html
He turns 99 on Fri. He probably couldn’t remember what he ate for breakfast..
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by UNI88 »

UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade
According to the media report, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has approved the idea of protecting Ukrainian commercial fleet with UK warships. She is now seeking the U.S. approval for this, the Times said.
Not sure about the veracity of the report but interesting. What happens if the situation in Ukraine escalates not because of US boots on the ground but because a close ally's involvement?
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade
According to the media report, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has approved the idea of protecting Ukrainian commercial fleet with UK warships. She is now seeking the U.S. approval for this, the Times said.
Not sure about the veracity of the report but interesting. What happens if the situation in Ukraine escalates not because of US boots on the ground but because a close ally's involvement?
Great question. The pending worldwide food shortages are getting more and more noise. Cutting off shipments to devastate UKR’s economy further and win the war he’s already lost. :ohno:
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by BDKJMU »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade
According to the media report, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has approved the idea of protecting Ukrainian commercial fleet with UK warships. She is now seeking the U.S. approval for this, the Times said.
Not sure about the veracity of the report but interesting. What happens if the situation in Ukraine escalates not because of US boots on the ground but because a close ally's involvement?
Why? From what I’ve read, thr UK grows most of its wheat, and the majority of what thry import comes from countries Germany, France & Canada.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 4:56 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade



Not sure about the veracity of the report but interesting. What happens if the situation in Ukraine escalates not because of US boots on the ground but because a close ally's involvement?
Why? From what I’ve read, thr UK grows most of its wheat, and the majority of what thry import comes from countries Germany, France & Canada.
Maybe it’s because they recognize a worldwide food shortage sucks. Or, if you don’t care about that, maybe that instability creates further strategic threats?
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by Col Hogan »

Russian forces in Ukraine are apparently getting ready to use a satellite-blinding weapon…
Russia’s armed forces have begun receiving anti-satellite blinding laser weapons, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said in mid-May. According to Borissov, the weapon has a range of up to 1,500 km and can target enemy satellites. The weapon is called PERESVET.

Borisov talks about the principle of operation of the laser. PERESVET can dazzle reconnaissance satellites and reconnaissance satellite systems by deactivating their electronics using laser radiation as they fly into orbit over Russian territory.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/ ... an-troops/
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

kalm wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 4:54 am
SDHornet wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 9:02 pm

Now it's the Russian's that are the nazis. The double triple switcharoo in progress. MSM with loads of nazi articles on Ukrainian units, but like magic, they became the "good nazis" in February. :rofl:
Hint: there are Nazi’s in Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., hell probably even a few at the CPAC conference in Hungary. They can all be legitimately invaded? Or is it proving to be a bullshit excuse you willingly fell for?

:|
I never claimed the "de-nazification" was a legit reason for the invasion. That said, we shouldn't be giving resources to nazis anywhere. This isn't that hard to understand.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by kalm »

SDHornet wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:52 pm
kalm wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 4:54 am

Hint: there are Nazi’s in Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., hell probably even a few at the CPAC conference in Hungary. They can all be legitimately invaded? Or is it proving to be a bullshit excuse you willingly fell for?

:|
I never claimed the "de-nazification" was a legit reason for the invasion. That said, we shouldn't be giving resources to nazis anywhere. This isn't that hard to understand.
Sure you didn’t. :lol:

So do you think the federal government should stop giving resources to the state of Idaho?

Cuz…ya know…nazis!
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

GannonFan wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:56 am
SDHornet wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 9:06 pm

Because now there isn't much from stopping Russia from taking whatever they want. Why would Russia come to the table at this point? Early on they could have ceded some of the territory Russia wanted to stave off destruction elsewhere (for the time being at least and regrouped and gotten more NATO training and gear)...not really sure what leverage they have now.

It's all Monday morning QBing at this point, so meh. Russia ended up getting the territory they wanted either way.
Then why try to negotiate anything? Russia's not going to abide by any restrictions that stop them from trying to fully absorb all of the Ukraine, so what's the point in trying to temporarily agree to anything with them? Ukraine is just as well off trying to keep Russia engaged in the field and having Russia stay deployed constantly - at least that requires Russia to feed and supply a large army in foreign territory while under constant attack. The alternative you propose would be the one where Russia gets to recoup and recover and rearm freely and then get to once again pick where and when they want to take even more Ukrainian territory a few years down the road until there's no more Ukraine to take. If I was a Ukrainian, I think I pick the former option. Ukraine's going to get NATO stuff in either case, and at least with an ongoing war there's less chance of the West deciding that they can go back to normal and dropping the pressure on Russia (again, making it easier for them to reorganize to take the next piece of Ukraine). If Russia is deadset on carving up Ukraine, as it seems they are, the best option from a Ukraine and NATO standpoint is to make it as costly and ruinous for Russia as possible. If you don't make unprovoked military aggression and territorial seizure difficult and painful, then everyone who could would do it.
Yes. This situation was always lose-lose and was set in motion nearly a decade ago. It's also a situation the US didn't need to get involved with. I've always been against the idea of being the world police, and yes that means countries will get bullied and gobbled up by others. Unless they are a strategic ally worth fighting for, there is no real reason to get involved.

I have no problem selling all the arms Ukraine is willing to pay for so that they can defend themselves.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

kalm wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:55 pm
SDHornet wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:52 pm

I never claimed the "de-nazification" was a legit reason for the invasion. That said, we shouldn't be giving resources to nazis anywhere. This isn't that hard to understand.
Sure you didn’t. :lol:

So do you think the federal government should stop giving resources to the state of Idaho?

Cuz…ya know…nazis!
If any are going directly to nazi groups then yes. This isn't hard to understand.
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Re: The Ukraine Crisis

Post by SDHornet »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 4:56 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm UK mulling option of escorting Ukraine grain vessels from ports in Black Sea, breaking Russian blockade



Not sure about the veracity of the report but interesting. What happens if the situation in Ukraine escalates not because of US boots on the ground but because a close ally's involvement?
Why? From what I’ve read, thr UK grows most of its wheat, and the majority of what thry import comes from countries Germany, France & Canada.
Yep. It's the small poor countries that can't grow their own food that are going to suffer. Just look at Sri Lanka in the past few weeks. Also India saying they are halting all grain exports due to poor harvest yields will compound the global food shortage even more.
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