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Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 6:54 am
by kalm
:popcorn:
Jack Welch: Obama Cooking the Books on Jobs
Friday, 05 Oct 2012 09:17 AM
By Forrest Jones

The U.S. economy added a net 114,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to a surprisingly low 7.8 percent, a number former GE boss Jack Welch described as cooked up by the Obama administration.

The September jobs number brought the unemployment rate below 8 percent for the first time in about four years.

Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following three months of little change, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Editor's Note: Obama Donor Banned This Video But You Can Watch it Here

"Unbelievable jobs numbers ... these Chicago guys will do anything ... can't debate so change numbers," Welch said on his Twitter page, referring to President Barack Obama's performance in the first presidential debate earlier this week.

Other experts expressed similar surprise.


Read more on Newsmax.com: Jack Welch: Obama Cooking the Books on Jobs
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Welch ... /id/458814" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:07 am
by CitadelGrad
Given all of the other economic data and leading indicators that we've been seeing, I don't think there's much question that the unemployment report has been falsified.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:08 am
by kalm
CitadelGrad wrote:Given all of the other economic data and leading indicators that we've been seeing, I don't think there's much question that the unemployment report has been falsified.
Yeah...and he'll probably get away with it too.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:13 am
by Grizalltheway
CitadelGrad wrote:Given all of the other economic data and leading indicators that we've been seeing, I don't think there's much question that the unemployment report has been falsified.
Let's see your calculations, big guy.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:15 am
by andy7171
Doesn't the unemployment report always get revised up a week or so later, but just gets little reporting on the revision?
Gotta admit, my first though when seeing this headline online was "You've gotta be kidding me"

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:27 am
by OL FU
I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:29 am
by Grizalltheway
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Now there's a reasoned, logical response. OL FU for GE CEO. :thumb:

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:32 am
by CitadelGrad
andy7171 wrote:Doesn't the unemployment report always get revised up a week or so later, but just gets little reporting on the revision?
Gotta admit, my first though when seeing this headline online was "You've gotta be kidding me"
The initial report includes a lot of Labor Dept. assumptions. These assumptions are almost always wrong. That's why there are subsequent revisions.

Given all the other data we've been seeing for the last couple of months, I just don't see how the unemployment rate could have dropped. Yesterday, the consensus among forecasters seemed to be 8.1 or 8.2 percent.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:33 am
by ASUG8
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Agreed, but you won't hear that number in any of Obama's talking points. It will only be the sudden miraculous reversal of fortune one month out from election day. And since the next debates are on foreign policy Romney won't even get to address it.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:34 am
by CitadelGrad
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Sorry, but when you know that labor force participation is declining and you publish a .3% drop in the unemployment rate, then you are cooking the books. Lying through their teeth is another way of putting it.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:39 am
by CitadelGrad
ASUG8 wrote:
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Agreed, but you won't hear that number in any of Obama's talking points. It will only be the sudden miraculous reversal of fortune one month out from election day. And since the next debates are on foreign policy Romney won't even get to address it.
We have the Ryan vs. Biden debate coming in a few days. Do you really think Ryan is going to miss an opportunity to address this? I don't.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:42 am
by OL FU
Grizalltheway wrote:
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Now there's a reasoned, logical response. OL FU for GE CEO. :thumb:
Can I just have the compensation for a month :D

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:45 am
by CitadelGrad
Here's a pretty good explanation of the bullshit drop in the unemployment rate.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-0 ... ge-most-qe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:49 am
by ASUG8
CitadelGrad wrote:
ASUG8 wrote:
Agreed, but you won't hear that number in any of Obama's talking points. It will only be the sudden miraculous reversal of fortune one month out from election day. And since the next debates are on foreign policy Romney won't even get to address it.
We have the Ryan vs. Biden debate coming in a few days. Do you really think Ryan is going to miss an opportunity to address this? I don't.
You'll have maybe 50% of the audience for the Presidential debates. I just don't think folks care too much about VP debates.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:49 am
by Ivytalk
CitadelGrad wrote:
ASUG8 wrote:
Agreed, but you won't hear that number in any of Obama's talking points. It will only be the sudden miraculous reversal of fortune one month out from election day. And since the next debates are on foreign policy Romney won't even get to address it.
We have the Ryan vs. Biden debate coming in a few days. Do you really think Ryan is going to miss an opportunity to address this? I don't.
A smart Irishman and a dumb Irishman walk into a bar... 8-)

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:54 am
by CitadelGrad
ASUG8 wrote:
CitadelGrad wrote:
We have the Ryan vs. Biden debate coming in a few days. Do you really think Ryan is going to miss an opportunity to address this? I don't.
You'll have maybe 50% of the audience for the Presidential debates. I just don't think folks care too much about VP debates.
I think people will tune in for some comedy gold from the gaffe machine.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:58 am
by andy7171
CitadelGrad wrote:
ASUG8 wrote:
You'll have maybe 50% of the audience for the Presidential debates. I just don't think folks care too much about VP debates.
I think people will tune in for some comedy gold from the gaffe machine.
And he's been on a roll lately. :nod:

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:03 am
by CitadelGrad
U-1 through U-5 unemployment are all down ... but wait, what about U-6? These stupid govt. pukes don't even know how to cover their tracks.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:10 am
by ASUG8
CitadelGrad wrote:U-1 through U-5 unemployment are all down ... but wait, what about U-6? These stupid govt. pukes don't even know how to cover their tracks.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
I was surprised to hear that 114K jobs can drop the rate .3%. I thought it would take a much more significant jump in jobs to get to that number.

Edit: oh yeah, the Labor dept. realized their July and August numbers were understated suddenly too. :shock:

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:42 am
by kalm
This thread is delivering. 8-)

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:15 am
by bluehenbillk
Jack Welch?

Seriously?

http://www.mrctv.org/videos/jack-welch- ... y-lifetime" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh no...Jack Welch would be somebody to goto who is TOTALLY UNBIASED :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand: :tothehand:

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:09 am
by OL FU
CitadelGrad wrote:
OL FU wrote:I don't think they are "cooking the books" but the unemployment measurement most utilized during this downturn is meaningless. The underemployment number which is also reporting my the government but rarely mentioned by the press is the more meaningful number
Sorry, but when you know that labor force participation is declining and you publish a .3% drop in the unemployment rate, then you are cooking the books. Lying through their teeth is another way of putting it.
Isn't that the definition of the two different measurements. One includes those who left the labor force and one doesn't

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:54 am
by CitadelGrad
OL FU wrote:
CitadelGrad wrote:
Sorry, but when you know that labor force participation is declining and you publish a .3% drop in the unemployment rate, then you are cooking the books. Lying through their teeth is another way of putting it.
Isn't that the definition of the two different measurements. One includes those who left the labor force and one doesn't
It depends on which rate you are talking about. The U-3 rate is 7.8%. The U-6 rate is unchanged at 14.7%.

The U-3 rate decline is related to the household survey which showed an increase of 840,000 jobs. The much larger survey of businesses showed an increase of 114,000. The business survey numbers in July and August were much higher (190,000 and 160,000), yet didn't budget the U-3 rate from 8.1%. The question is how did a smaller increase of 114,000 move the U-3 rate down .3% when the labor force participation rate continued to decline?

If it isn't cooking the books, then I don't know what it is. Clearly, the household survey number is not valid, but it is the basis for the September decline in the U-3 rate.

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:19 pm
by OL FU
CitadelGrad wrote:
OL FU wrote:
Isn't that the definition of the two different measurements. One includes those who left the labor force and one doesn't
It depends on which rate you are talking about. The U-3 rate is 7.8%. The U-6 rate is unchanged at 14.7%.

The U-3 rate decline is related to the household survey which showed an increase of 840,000 jobs. The much larger survey of businesses showed an increase of 114,000. The business survey numbers in July and August were much higher (190,000 and 160,000), yet didn't budget the U-3 rate from 8.1%. The question is how did a smaller increase of 114,000 move the U-3 rate down .3% when the labor force participation rate continued to decline?

If it isn't cooking the books, then I don't know what it is. Clearly, the household survey number is not valid, but it is the basis for the September decline in the U-3 rate.
Didn't know the names but knew there were two different measurements and the one that people should be paying attention to is the one that is at 14.7. Honestly don't know the recipe ;)

Re: Obama's Cooking the Books

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:19 pm
by CID1990
I thought it was 6.93