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Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Lichtman’s earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s decision to challenge Bush.“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.”

In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.

Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.

Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Obama loses this key.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

Skjellyfetti wrote: Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. - There hasn't been a serious contest for the incumbent party nomination in 40 years. He's REALLY stepping out on a limb on this one.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama. Another Einstein moment
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. - Obama might wish there WAS one...it would help him out by splitting the conservative vote.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” - Our short term economy is in shambles and has been for Obama's entire presidency. To give an "undecided" here is pure partisan hackery.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Obama loses this key. - He not only loses this key, he loses it by a country mile. The long term economy is F-U-C-K FUCKED.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. A win??? 90% of the reason for the sweeping losses by the donks in 2010 were BECAUSE of these "policy changes" implemented by Obama's administration. When the majority of the country disapproves of your policy changes, that can hardly be considered a "win". More partisan hackery.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. - He hasn't been paying attention, then. The crap going on in Wisconsin, Ohio, flash mobs, marches on Washington, creation of the Tea Party...exactly WTF is he LOOKING for here? This country as as socially "unrestful" as it's been since the Watts riots.. another loss for Obama.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. - The list is long and illustrious, but the Eric Holder/ATF/Fast & Furious scandal CERTAINLY fits the "major" theme....again, if by "major" he's looking for a gay Obama lover to come forward, he's got that bar set pretty damned high. Another loss for Obama.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. - Agreed.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. - Agreed. I'd include Libya in this (at least what we know of Libya at this point. If it blows up prior to election day 2012, this could go in the "loss" column.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. Bingo. He's also a HORRIBLE party hack, continuously blames others for his failures and is a divider, not a uniter.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.. How can he give Obama a win here when we don't even know who the challenging party candidate IS? Premature at best, and possibly a loss depending on the candidate.http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washin ... in-in-2012

Skjellyfetti wrote:Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.

bluehenbillk wrote:Maybe the guy should have really looked at these 11 keys to 2012:

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado.

They're the 11 most-likely swing states as of the summer of 2011. Whichever party wins there will win the Presidency in 2012.

AZGrizFan wrote:

bluehenbillk wrote:Maybe the guy should have really looked at these 11 keys to 2012:

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado.

They're the 11 most-likely swing states as of the summer of 2011. Whichever party wins there will win the Presidency in 2012.

Ain't no WAY Oregon or Arizona are swinging...

AZGrizFan wrote:Good to see you back, junior.

bluehenbillk wrote:Maybe the guy should have really looked at these 11 keys to 2012:

Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado.

They're the 11 most-likely swing states as of the summer of 2011. Whichever party wins there will win the Presidency in 2012.

ASUG8 wrote:I'd have to disagree on scandal and policy change. Obama has struggled with appointees and their tax "issues", there is some tie in to the whole Blagoiovich (sp?) issue, and to AZ's point Eric Holder has been an embarrassment.

— It’s been a tough summer for swing-district Democrats seeking reelection in 2012 with a president at the top of the ticket whose approval ratings are in the weeds.

As these members begin to focus on their reelection bids after Labor Day, they are increasingly calculating how close is too close to an unpopular President Obama.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44358736/ns ... l_KPM1lY50" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HI54UNI wrote:I think the key is going to be the turnout of the black vote. I've said before if it stays high like last time he will win re-election. If it tanks (see the video) he's screwed.

[youtube][/youtube]

blueballs wrote:If the economy and employment improve heading into next fall he has a good chance at re-election. If the economy stays as is or softens more into next fall he will have to run on his record and he will be his-to-reeeeeeeeeeeeee.

I can't speak for everybody else but four more years of Obama/Bernanke/Geithner/Dodd/Frank and I might be out of business and the housing and finance industries fucked permanently.

AZGrizFan wrote:

blueballs wrote:I can't speak for everybody else but four more years of Obama/Bernanke/Geithner/Dodd/Frank and I might be out of business and the housing and finance industries fucked permanently.

blueballs wrote:If the economy and employment improve heading into next fall he has a good chance at re-election. If the economy stays as is or softens more into next fall he will have to run on his record and he will be his-to-reeeeeeeeeeeeee.

I can't speak for everybody else but four more years of Obama/Bernanke/Geithner/Dodd/Frank and I might be out of business and the housing and finance industries fucked permanently.

Skjellyfetti wrote:

Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Lichtman’s earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s decision to challenge Bush.“I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clinton’s special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history.”

In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.

Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.

Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Obama loses this key.

Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washin ... in-in-2012" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cap'n Cat wrote:The guy is golden. Nothing's tainted him. Conks try and try and try and try again to stick him with untenable scandals, but the American people know their bullshit when they see it. Fun to watch the Conks squirm some more.

And, I'll say it again, their hate and envy is 90% because Obama is black. NOBODY has operated in such an environment of hate and interference - EVER - in the history of the United States. Hope Conks are proud of themselves.

BlueHen86 wrote:I think he gets re-elected.

I think the GOP is too divided right now. Candidates like Romney might not appeal to the "base", candidates like Perry might not appeal to the more moderate voters.

BlueHen86 wrote:I think he gets re-elected.

I think the GOP is too divided right now. Candidates like Romney might not appeal to the "base", candidates like Perry might not appeal to the more moderate voters.