Championship Subdivision Football | FCS Football | Stadiums | Blogs | Forums

The last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London.

"It seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the US economy has disappointed expectations recently," said Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday.

"US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were all very disappointing."

"And that’s just in the last week and a bit," said Riddell.

Pointing to the dramatic turnaround in the Citigroup "Economic Surprise Index" for the United States, Riddell said the tumble in a matter of months to negative from positive is almost as bad as the situation before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

"The correlation between the economic surprise index and Treasury yields is very close, so the lesson is that whatever your long term macro views are regarding hyper inflation vs. deflation or the risk of the US defaulting, the reality is that if you want to have a view about government bond prices, the best thing you can do is look at the economic data to see what’s actually going on," said Riddell.

Spoiler: show

Investors fled U.S. stock markets Wednesday and poured into Treasurys after dismal economic data, driving benchmark yields to below 3.0 percent for the first time since December.

The dollar also fell after the latest employment and manufacturing indicators signaled that U.S. economic growth may be slowing more quickly than first thought.

Oil prices fell as much as 2 percent, while gold, another safe haven like Treasurys, rose nearly 1.0 percent.

"The sugar high that has buoyed the U.S. economy over the past six months is wearing out, and there is little in economic growth or foundation to show for it," said Douglas Borthwick, a managing director with Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.

The dollar fell for a third straight session against a basket of currencies — losing nearly 2 percent since last Thursday. Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury debt, the favorite asset of investors looking for a safe place to store cash in tough times, hit December lows.

"The dollar has no choice but to weaken, given exports are the only bright spot in the United States," Borthwick said.

Growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed sharply in May, with the Institute for Supply Management's index of national factory activity falling to 53.5 in May, its lowest level since September 2009.

That followed surprising private employment data from payrolls processor ADP that showed poorer job growth in May than expected, leading many Wall Street banks to slash forecasts for Friday's May employment data.

ADP's survey showed private employers in the United States added a scant 38,000 jobs in May, nearly four times below that expected by the market.

Failed Stimulus

The job additions were the lowest published by ADP since September 2010. Analysts expect Friday's official total non-farm payroll numbers for May to be much better.

"It fits very neatly in with the puzzle we are putting together that speaks to another soft patch and really, a genuinely failed stimulus approach to growing the economy," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"And it's not just about jobs. It's about manufacturing, it's about real estate, it's about consumer confidence. This is one data point in a very broad picture, and it's not encouraging."

Manufacturing index falls to 53.5 from 60.4 in April
Private employers added just 38,000 jobs in May
Dow Jones crashes more than two per cent by 280 points and erases quarter of year's gains

Republicans press Obama for detailed plan on cuts
It might be time to hold onto your hats again as the U.S economy crashes.
A market strategist gave the dire prediction that ‘we’re on the verge of a great, great depression’ as the economy suffered a triple blow today.
Big falls in job growth and the manufacturing sector wiped out more than a quarter of the Dow
The index fell 280 points - more than two per cent - as top House Republicans pressed President Obama for a detailed plan on budget cuts.
The 2.2 per cent drop was the biggest point fall since June 4 last year - and the largest percentage fall since August.
Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, said he is seeing ‘near panic’ with investors unwilling to punt on unpredictable commodities.
It comes a day after Capital Economics said the first quarter drop in house prices means they have fallen by more than during the Great Depression.

‘Interest rates are amazingly low. We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The (Federal Reserve) knows it’
Peter Yastrow
Yastrow Origer

Treasury bond yields fell to their lowest level since December as traders put a higher value on safer investments.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell to 2.95 per cent.
Doubts about the economy's strength that built throughout May were compounded by a pair of reports weaker than investors expected.
The ISM's manufacturing index fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 in
However private employers added just 38,000 jobs in May, down from 177,000 in April, according to payroll processor ADP.
Analysts had expected 180,000 new jobs, so it is another major blow.

‘It looks like this recovery has hit its second "soft patch", which for a recovery that is less than two years old is troubling'
Paul Ashworth
Capital Economics

Stock losses came across the market, with all 10 industry groups that make up the Standard and Poor's 500 index losing ground.
Companies that have benefited from expectations of worldwide growth were especially hard hit - such as Caterpillar, Alcoa, and Boeing.
Meanwhile, one leading lawmaker today accused Mr Obama of distorting a GOP Medicare proposal at the centre of the partisan divide over spending.
The White House made clear Mr Obama is still sure Representative Paul Ryan's plan to send future Medicare recipients into the private insurance marketplace will ‘end Medicare as we know it’.
But Mr Ryan said: 'It's been misdescribed by the president and many others and so we simply described to him precisely what it is we've been proposing so that he hears from us how our proposal works so that in the future he won't mischaracterise it.'
The GOP sought to build pressure on Mr Obama for trillions in spending cuts in exchange for any increase in the government's ability to borrow.
'Any day Republicans and Democrats are actually having a dialogue, this is a good thing, said Republican Representative Jeb Hensarling of Texas.
A meeting seemed to amount to a face-to-face recitation of each side's positions, but no breakthrough on how to reach a debt-reduction deal.
House Speaker Republican John Boehner said: ‘I told the President, one more time, this is the moment.
‘This is the window of opportunity where we can deal with this on our terms. We can work together and solve this problem. We know what the problems are. Let's not kick the can down the road one more time.’
The talks came as an August 2 deadline approaches for the federal government to raise the debt limit or go into unprecedented default.

AZGrizFan wrote:Where's analjelly to spin this data into an Obama landslide?

93henfan wrote:THE SKY IS FALLING!

THE SKY IS FALLING!



I wish some of the prophets here would have let me know when to get back out of stocks.

houndawg wrote:....been trying to tell you its a suckers game for a couple of years.

89Hen wrote:

houndawg wrote:....been trying to tell you its a suckers game for a couple of years.

You're the sucker if you've been standing on the sidelines.

Travelinman67 wrote:O'bama and the Fed better throw some more money at this before it's too late!!!

House Democrats this week have amplified their calls for new spending on infrastructure and other federal projects in the face of May's discouraging job-creation figures.

Even as Republicans are insisting on "trillions" of dollars in spending cuts, Democrats maintain that a targeted injection of additional federal dollars in the near-term would go a long way toward reversing the hiring slump. Friday's disappointing job report, they say, only bolsters their case.

"The American people, while concerned about the deficit, place much more emphasis on job creation, and they see a role for the government," Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) told The Hill. "A fast injection of job stimulus on the public side would help tremendously. … It [the job report] helps our argument about investment."...

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) said that only in Washington is targeted new spending being demonized.

"Once you get outside the Beltway, almost everyone agrees that we should be rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure and investing in clean American energy that reduces our dependence on oil," Blumenauer said.
[ ]
The remarks are a stark contrast to the Republicans' plans to cut trillions of dollars in federal spending to bring down the nation's soaring deficits. Those deficits, they argue, have crippled the ability of the private sector to hire new workers. Friday's job report, the Republicans contend, is evidence that the Democrats' deficit-spending strategy has failed.

"If you talk to job creators around the country like we have, they’ll tell you all the over-taxing, over-regulating, and over-spending that’s going on in Washington is creating uncertainty and holding them back," House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said at a press conference Friday.

"One look at the jobs report should be enough to show the White House it’s time to get serious about cutting spending and dealing with our ailing economy,” he said.
[ ]
The spending debate was stirred up Friday by the Labor Department's report that the economy created only 54,000 jobs in May – about a quarter of the average job growth over the last three months. Of those, roughly 83,000 were created by the private sector. State and local governments have been shedding jobs for months, and that trend continued in May, the Labor Department found.

Leaders from both parties blamed the other side for the continued jobs crisis. Democrats flung charges that House Republicans have yet to bring a jobs bill to the floor this year, while GOP leaders countered with accusations that the 2009 economic stimulus bill was a flop.

"They passed a nearly $1 trillion stimulus bill which failed to get people back to work," House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said last week of the $787 billion stimulus bill. That proposal featured $288 billion in tax benefits; $275 billion for energy and infrastructure projects; and $224 billion for safety-net programs.

Both sides have proposed legislative packages they say will spur job creation. Democrats are pushing their "Make It In America" agenda, a package of bills designed to increase manufacturing and discourage the outsourcing of jobs. It includes proposals to boost funding for airports, highways and high-speed rail, and also develops a national infrastructure development bank.

Republicans, meanwhile, have proposed to cut taxes, eliminate trade barriers and scale back federal regulations that the business lobby considers burdensome.

If the Democrats see the government as a necessary catalyst for economic recovery, the Republicans just want to get it out of the private sector's way.

Dennis Slater, president of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group, suggested Friday that the most effective strategy would incorporate elements of both approaches.

"Until Congress and the administration agree to make America's farmers and manufacturers a national priority by passing free trade agreements and investing in critical national infrastructure – both proven drivers of economic growth – unemployment will remain unacceptably high and our economy will continue to stagnate," Slater said in a statement...

BlueHen86 wrote:Great news! I'm really glad that Obama is failing. Sucks for the country, but hey, I always put party first. My only regret is that someone else beat me to this starting thread. I hope we have some more bad news so I can start the next thread reveling in Obama's failure.

travelinman67 wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:Great news! I'm really glad that Obama is failing. Sucks for the country, but hey, I always put party first. My only regret is that someone else beat me to this starting thread. I hope we have some more bad news so I can start the next thread reveling in Obama's failure.

This isn't about "failure", TTBF, it's about incompetence manifested in our country's economic destruction.

Take ownership.

BlueHen86 wrote: I hope we have some more bad news so I can start the next thread reveling in Obama's failure.

BlueHen86 wrote:

travelinman67 wrote:
This isn't about "failure", TTBF, it's about incompetence manifested in our country's economic destruction.

Take ownership.

You take ownership. All you care about is that your guy didn't win. You don't care about the good of the country. All you care about is petty crowing because the guy you didn't vote for is in charge while the economy is suffering. Well done. you're a big man.

BTW- You do realize that I'm not TTBF. I can't tell if you we're being "smart" or stupid there. Althought either way it looks stupid to me.

bulldog10jw wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote: I hope we have some more bad news so I can start the next thread reveling in Obama's failure.

Don't worry. With this incompetent administration, the next economic bad news should be only hours away. Everyone will hold off so you can start the thread.

BlueHen86 wrote:

bulldog10jw wrote:
Don't worry. With this incompetent administration, the next economic bad news should be only hours away. Everyone will hold off so you can start the thread.

I can't wait, I'm already working on my typing skills so that I can post it real quick.

I wonder though, if the news improves, will Obama get full credit? Seems only fair right? If we're going to blame him for the bad news, we should reward him for the good news. I just hope there is no "good" news, I'd hate to have to give credit to a guy that I didn't vote for.

AZGrizFan wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:
You take ownership. All you care about is that your guy didn't win. You don't care about the good of the country. All you care about is petty crowing because the guy you didn't vote for is in charge while the economy is suffering. Well done. you're a big man.

BTW- You do realize that I'm not TTBF. I can't tell if you we're being "smart" or stupid there. Althought either way it looks stupid to me.

Funny, I didn't hear much complaining out of folks like you when your side was doing the exact same thing from 2000-2008.

BlueHen86 wrote:

bulldog10jw wrote:
Don't worry. With this incompetent administration, the next economic bad news should be only hours away. Everyone will hold off so you can start the thread.

I can't wait, I'm already working on my typing skills so that I can post it real quick.

I wonder though, if the news improves, will Obama get full credit? Seems only fair right? If we're going to blame him for the bad news, we should reward him for the good news. I just hope there is no "good" news, I'd hate to have to give credit to a guy that I didn't vote for.

AZGrizFan wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:

I can't wait, I'm already working on my typing skills so that I can post it real quick.

I wonder though, if the news improves, will Obama get full credit? Seems only fair right? If we're going to blame him for the bad news, we should reward him for the good news. I just hope there is no "good" news, I'd hate to have to give credit to a guy that I didn't vote for.

That's politics, junior.

BlueHen86 wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:
That's politics, junior.

With that attitude our country is fucked. Which is probably why we've had "questionable" Presidents for some time now.

BlueHen86 wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:
Funny, I didn't hear much complaining out of folks like you when your side was doing the exact same thing from 2000-2008.

My "side" is the US - which is why even though I'm a registered republican and I voted for McCain I'm not celebrating Obama's problems. Not sure who your side is.

BlueHen86 wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:
Funny, I didn't hear much complaining out of folks like you when your side was doing the exact same thing from 2000-2008.

My "side" is the US - which is why even though I'm a registered republican and I voted for McCain I'm not celebrating Obama's problems. Not sure who your side is.

Ivytalk wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:
My "side" is the US - which is why even though I'm a registered republican and I voted for McCain I'm not celebrating Obama's problems. Not sure who your side is.

Hey, 86, time to buy more Midol!

AZGrizFan wrote:

BlueHen86 wrote:
My "side" is the US - which is why even though I'm a registered republican and I voted for McCain I'm not celebrating Obama's problems. Not sure who your side is.

Pointing out the country's issues and "celebrating Obama's problems" are two different things. But most Obama-lovers can't argue the facts, so they bash the approach....meh.

He's been proven to be a shallow imbecile, with no leadership, negotiation or compromise skills to speak of.