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Results based on averages from recent (since 3/1) statewide polls taken from http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com. Many of the states only had one poll. There was no McCain vs. Obama poll from North Carolina, so I kept it in the Republican column. There were no polls from Washington, D.C., either, but either Democrat should win that in a blowout.

• • • • • • McCain vs. Hillary

• • States won - McCain: 33
    • • ...Hillary: 18

• • Electoral Vote - McCain: 304
    • • ----Hillary: 234

• Bush States to Hillary - Arkansas, Ohio, West Virginia

• Kerry States to McCain - Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire

• • • • • • McCain vs. Obama

• • States won - McCain: 28
    • • ...Obama: 23

• • Electoral Vote - McCain: 295
    • • ----Obama: 243

• Bush States to Obama - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota (!), Iowa

• Kerry States to McCain - Michigan, Pennsylvania

These results show things are pretty close. Hillary & McCain are essentially tied in Florida, so a switch there could make a big dent. McCain also only has a tiny lead over Obama in both Michigan & Pennsylvania. Those states going for Obama would change a 52 electoral vote loss into a 35 vote win

The biggest difference between the two Democratic candidates is the west. In these hypothetical matchups, Hillary would lose western ground compared to the last 2 elections while Obama would gain ground in the west.

• Gore's Western States - HI, WA, OR, CA, NM

• Kerry's Western States - HI, WA, OR, CA

• Hillary's Western States - HI, CA

• Obama's Western States - HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, ND

I know the polls don't show it but I can't see Hillary winning West Virginia over McCain.

HI54UNI wrote:I know the polls don't show it but I can't see Hillary winning West Virginia over McCain.

I don't think a Democrat winning WV is that weird. There's a pretty high percentage of blue-collar voters there & I doubt they're really fond of McCain's economic positions.

The bigger question I have is why do eastern working-class voters seem to love Hillary so much? I can see why they may not like Obama or McCain, but what does Hillary really offer that they would embrace any better?

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
The bigger question I have is why do eastern working-class voters seem to love Hillary so much? I can see why they may not like Obama or McCain, but what does Hillary really offer that they would embrace any better?

Fond memories of the economic success they had last time a Clinton was in the White House.

dbackjon wrote:
Fond memories of the economic success they had last time a Clinton was in the White House.

So you're implying that those people are incapable of separating Hillary from her husband?

Here're a couple visual aides I cooked up in case the numbers don't paint a clear-enough picture:

• • 
    
    
    

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

dbackjon wrote:
Fond memories of the economic success they had last time a Clinton was in the White House.

So you're implying that those people are incapable of separating Hillary from her husband?

With the Right wing spending half their time trying to link her to Bill's mistakes, why wouldn't they turn around and link her to his successes?

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:I know the polls don't show it but I can't see Hillary winning West Virginia over McCain.

I don't think a Democrat winning WV is that weird. There's a pretty high percentage of blue-collar voters there & I doubt they're really fond of McCain's economic positions.

The bigger question I have is why do eastern working-class voters seem to love Hillary so much? I can see why they may not like Obama or McCain, but what does Hillary really offer that they would embrace any better?

I know WV is normally a D state but I think god and guns could get Hillary. Environmental issues, i.e. being anti-coal, could also cost a D the state.

dbackjon wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote:

Fond memories of the economic success they had last time a Clinton was in the White House.

Then why didn't they vote for Algore in 2000?

HI54UNI wrote:

dbackjon wrote: Fond memories of the economic success they had last time a Clinton was in the White House.

Then why didn't they vote for Algore in 2000?

they did...

dbackjon wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
Then why didn't they vote for Algore in 2000?

they did...

edit: never mind, thought you were talking about West Virginia...

Something weird going on with the quoting. I was referring to WV when I said that it didn't go for Al Gore in 2000.

HI54UNI wrote:Something weird going on with the quoting. I was referring to WV when I said that it didn't go for Al Gore in 2000.

That's what I thought, but I don't think that's what dbackjon was referring to (that's why I edited my previous post).

HI54UNI wrote:Something weird going on with the quoting. I was referring to WV when I said that it didn't go for Al Gore in 2000.

(...board software may have picked up a virus called "Skokie Script".)