Coronavirus COVID-19

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:38 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:25 pm

I don't think that's the correct way to do it. The risk among vaccinated was 0.000422878. The risk among those unvaccinated was 0.008840382. How much is risk reduced if it goes from 0.008840382 to 0.000422878? The answer is that it was reduced by (0.008840382 - 0.000422878)/0.008840382. That's the risk without vaccination minus the risk vaccinated divided by the risk without vaccination. That's 0.008417504/0.008840382 = 0.952165225 or about 95.2 percent. That's the extent to which the risk was apparently reduced in percentage terms.
:lol: Doh. Looks as if MY maths was off. I was doing it laying in bed with my youngest! Thx for the assist.

The point was more about how people say Absolute Risk Reduction is a better indicator. Like Winterborn said, marketing.
I don't think there's any conspiracy. To my knowledge they have been evaluating vaccines in terms of efficacy for a long time. I guess saying "95.2% efficacy" might sound better than saying "The relative risk of not being vaccinated vs. being vaccinated is 21." I don't know. But I don't think the people using the convention they do is a marketing thing.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Here is what appears to be a brand new publication that has what I think is good information in it:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 8/fulltext

Read the Findings section. In the study, being fully vaccinated was 73% effective against infection overall. However, it did wane over time. It was 88% effective against infection during the first month following full vaccination as compared to 47% effective against infection4 to 5 months after full vaccination.

Whether it was Delta variant or not did not appear to make a big difference in risk of infection. Being fully vaccinated was 93% effective against infection with Delta during the first month after full vaccination vs. 53% after 4 months. For other variants, it was 97% during the first month and 67% after 4 months.

I came away from reading the results thinking it is more evidence that vaccination does lower the risk of infection and can be used as a tool to reduce circulation of the virus in the population. But I am hoping they pretty quickly approve using boosters for most if not all age groups.

Also, this study also only looked at the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine. I've heard lots of statements that the Moderna vaccine effectiveness does not wane as quickly as the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness does. But I haven't seen numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SDHornet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:46 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:38 pm

It is a de-wormer. And it is used as a horse de-wormer. If the point is that Rogan is an idiot for using Ivermectin to treat COVID-19, the point is accurate. If a MD issued a prescription to Rogan to treat COVID-19 with Ivermectin, that MD should have his or her license revoked. It's malpractice.
CNN framed Rogan taking Ivermectin as taking the horse dewormer and not a prescribed medication from human consumption (you know the thing that won a Nobel Prize in 2015)...which is what Rogan had before taking it. Only a disingenuous person or complete retard is ok with and buys the way CNN spun the "Rogan taking Ivermectin" narrative after he caught the China Virus. Not surprised you fall into the "complete retard" category.
I was drinking and I saw some of the Rogan podcast beforehand so I was not as objective as I should have been. Yes, if CNN said Rogan took horse de-wormer they should not have done that. Also, it is a shame that they did it because it provides the opportunity to attack CNN's credibility when the basic message they are sending (Ivermectin is not effective against COVID-19) is correct. They could have done something like say Rogan was buying internet information touting an ineffective drug as effective when the medication's manufacture, in referring to using Ivermectin to treat COVID-19, says its own analysis:
No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies;
No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and;
A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.
I guess it's just easier to make a joke about how ignorant someone is acting by referring to "horse de-wormer" but whoever did it should have resisted the temptation.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Another note on the Rogan thing: Yesterday my daughter sent a text the family talking about a friend of hers whose father just caught COVID-19. My son asked if he was vaccinated. My daughter said he wasn't and that her friend isn't either. My son asked why.

My daughter responded:
Because she listens to a health podcaster who presents cherry-picked information that's slanted against the vaccine.
People like Rogan are doing harm. It's a shame that people will believe somebody like Rogan over CDC and the overwhelming consensus among public health experts but there are people who do. We are in a situation where everybody should be pulling together, whether they personally think they are at high risk of serious adverse consequence or not, to suppress the circulation of SARS-COV-2. And we have people like Rogan spewing misinformation that is needlessly impeding the effort.

When it comes to the big picture, the population would be way better off if everybody were listening to what CNN is telling them instead having some people listen to what people like Rogan is telling them. When CNN says everybody should get vaccinated unless there is some contra-indication specific to a given person, CNN is correct. When Rogan disagrees with that, Rogan is wrong. When CNN says people should not be taking Ivermectin thinking it is going to help them against COVID-19, CNN is correct. When Rogan touts Ivermectin, he is wrong.

Rogan is also misinforming people when he implies, by referring to his own situation, that he was not at risk because he exercises and takes vitamins (I saw him say that while watching an excerpt of the podcast with Gupta). He is 54 years old. Sure, the odds are that any give 54 year old will make it through COVID-19. But it's not like being 20. As of October 13 the CDC had counted 125,812 COVID-19 deaths among people in the 50 - 64 age range. Not quite possible to be exact because people are always moving into and out of the age group. But that is something like 1 in 500 of the people in the 50 - 64 age group.

Perspective: 125,812 is about twice the number of deaths one would expect, based on annual motor vehicle accident fatality rates, among ALL age groups from motor vehicle accidents during the length of time since we had the first COVID-19 death in the United States.

Having people like Rogan out there and having people take what he says about COVID-19 seriously is NOT a good thing.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:32 am Here is what appears to be a brand new publication that has what I think is good information in it:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 8/fulltext

Read the Findings section. In the study, being fully vaccinated was 73% effective against infection overall. However, it did wane over time. It was 88% effective against infection during the first month following full vaccination as compared to 47% effective against infection4 to 5 months after full vaccination.

Whether it was Delta variant or not did not appear to make a big difference in risk of infection. Being fully vaccinated was 93% effective against infection with Delta during the first month after full vaccination vs. 53% after 4 months. For other variants, it was 97% during the first month and 67% after 4 months.

I came away from reading the results thinking it is more evidence that vaccination does lower the risk of infection and can be used as a tool to reduce circulation of the virus in the population. But I am hoping they pretty quickly approve using boosters for most if not all age groups.

Also, this study also only looked at the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine. I've heard lots of statements that the Moderna vaccine effectiveness does not wane as quickly as the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness does. But I haven't seen numbers.
Off the top of my head, I understand ModeRNA used a larger dose than Pfizer, and thus got a greater immune response. That could account for why it confers longer protection.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
Not to mention the dollar savings insurance will realize as well.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future .
That's a reasonable thought process. Kind of interesting though in that the proportion of COVID-19 deaths consisting to people 65 and over is similar to the proportion of COVID-19 deaths that are not classified as COVID-19 consisting of people 65 and over. I got the numbers by going to the CDC provisional death counts and subtracting the number of deaths reported as COVID-19 from total deaths.

76% of the deaths indicated as COVID-19 deaths right now are among people 65 and over, but 73% of the OTHER deaths are among people 65 and over. So, the extent that older people are more likely to die from COVID-19 they are similarly more likely to die from something else.

Of course that means the situation is similar with those under 65. 24% of the COVID deaths are among those under 65 and 27% of the other deaths are.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Quick update. Yesterday I ran a correlation for number of COVID cases per million population by State reported October 14 vs. State fully vaccinated rate as of 19 days prior (September 25). 5 day incubation period plus 14 days for full protection. Had to leave Iowa out because they haven't yet reported for later than October 13. Coefficient is -0.287; which is significant at 95.7% confidence.

So the correlation isn't as strong as the last time I did it near the end of September. But still a significant association such that case rate tended to go down as vaccination rate went up.

Last time I did it using the vaccination rate as of the date I was looking at for case rate. This time I tried to account to some extent for incubation period and time lag between vaccination rate and being fully effective. But it doesn't make any real difference. Like for instance this morning I looked at vaccination rates as of today vs. vaccination rates as of September 25. The coefficient is 0.999. So you really aren't going to make any practical difference by using vaccination rates a month ago vs. two weeks ago vs. today, etc. In fact I got a slighly higher coefficient absolute value for case rate vs. vaccination rate, -0.297, using TODAY's vaccination rate numbers vs. case rates for the day before yesterday.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by JohnStOnge »

Nobody should even have to do a fact check like this. But such is the country we live in now:

https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL1N2R32JP
Some social media users have been saying that Merck’s experimental COVID-19 antiviral product molnupiravir is a rebranded version of the anti-parasitic Ivermectin. Two disease experts have told Reuters that this is not the case and that the chemical make-up of the two drugs is different.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
I very much doubt more than 1 of the people I know that died of Covid, would have died in the next 5 years. One was 89, and his brother died a few months after him, of natural causes at 93. My sisters neighbor is in week 11 of her hospital stay, and nearly died. Had the Trach removed last week. I would guess that a vast majority over 80, but not people in their 50's 60's and 70's. I would say less than half, maybe 40%
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:34 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
Not to mention the dollar savings insurance will realize as well.
So you support big insurance, but not big pharma? :lol: ;)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 1:43 pm Nobody should even have to do a fact check like this. But such is the country we live in now:

https://www.reuters.com/article/factche ... SL1N2R32JP
Some social media users have been saying that Merck’s experimental COVID-19 antiviral product molnupiravir is a rebranded version of the anti-parasitic Ivermectin. Two disease experts have told Reuters that this is not the case and that the chemical make-up of the two drugs is different.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:43 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:34 am

Not to mention the dollar savings insurance will realize as well.
So you support big insurance, but not big pharma? :lol: ;)
I don't support big insurance, necessarily. My point about insurance making money is that COVID wiped out a lot of the elderly and those with comorbidities. Two groups that on average, use insurance benefits at a higher rate than most. When my wife had cancer, the insurance company paid out 800k, so I will forever be on the winning end! Lol.

As far as Pharma and me, I have always been a more natural health type person because I've always been willing to make the needed lifestyle choices to prevent me from needing prescription medication. Other than a pain med or two, I've been a very small consumer of said prescription medication.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:56 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:43 am

So you support big insurance, but not big pharma? :lol: ;)
I don't support big insurance, necessarily. My point about insurance making money is that COVID wiped out a lot of the elderly and those with comorbidities. Two groups that on average, use insurance benefits at a higher rate than most. When my wife had cancer, the insurance company paid out 800k, so I will forever be on the winning end! Lol.

As far as Pharma and me, I have always been a more natural health type person because I've always been willing to make the needed lifestyle choices to prevent me from needing prescription medication. Other than a pain med or two, I've been a very small consumer of said prescription medication.
Natural pain killer as in Booze? lol

I rarely take pain killers, first of all they tend not to relieve pain. That's after 7 surgeries. I did my first dozen or so endoscopies without getting drugged. I take a few supplements, man they are more expensive that prescriptions. Someone else has their hands in the cookie jar.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:59 pm
SDHornet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:41 am Hey gil, speaking of CNN, here is their doctor getting shit on by a comedian/MMA announcer. :rofl:

So here is a link about CNN, but you don't watch CNN. It's a shitty, shitty cable channel, just like Fox news.
It's a dude pointing out that CNN's "medical expert" got owned by a comedian/MMA announcer. You must have missed something. :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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AZGrizFan wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:02 am Mark my words. What has happened in the past 18 months is we have pulled forward the deaths of 700,000 people, the vast majority of which were going to die in the next 1-5 years even if COVID had never happened. Because of that we will, in all probability, see lower than average death rates across the country (and world, really) in the near future and all the politicians will take that as confirmation of the success of and justification for their actions against COVID. When in reality, it’s just math.
Good point.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:08 am Another note on the Rogan thing: Yesterday my daughter sent a text the family talking about a friend of hers whose father just caught COVID-19. My son asked if he was vaccinated. My daughter said he wasn't and that her friend isn't either. My son asked why.

My daughter responded:
Because she listens to a health podcaster who presents cherry-picked information that's slanted against the vaccine.
People like Rogan are doing harm. It's a shame that people will believe somebody like Rogan over CDC and the overwhelming consensus among public health experts but there are people who do. We are in a situation where everybody should be pulling together, whether they personally think they are at high risk of serious adverse consequence or not, to suppress the circulation of SARS-COV-2. And we have people like Rogan spewing misinformation that is needlessly impeding the effort.

When it comes to the big picture, the population would be way better off if everybody were listening to what CNN is telling them instead having some people listen to what people like Rogan is telling them. When CNN says everybody should get vaccinated unless there is some contra-indication specific to a given person, CNN is correct. When Rogan disagrees with that, Rogan is wrong. When CNN says people should not be taking Ivermectin thinking it is going to help them against COVID-19, CNN is correct. When Rogan touts Ivermectin, he is wrong.

Rogan is also misinforming people when he implies, by referring to his own situation, that he was not at risk because he exercises and takes vitamins (I saw him say that while watching an excerpt of the podcast with Gupta). He is 54 years old. Sure, the odds are that any give 54 year old will make it through COVID-19. But it's not like being 20. As of October 13 the CDC had counted 125,812 COVID-19 deaths among people in the 50 - 64 age range. Not quite possible to be exact because people are always moving into and out of the age group. But that is something like 1 in 500 of the people in the 50 - 64 age group.

Perspective: 125,812 is about twice the number of deaths one would expect, based on annual motor vehicle accident fatality rates, among ALL age groups from motor vehicle accidents during the length of time since we had the first COVID-19 death in the United States.

Having people like Rogan out there and having people take what he says about COVID-19 seriously is NOT a good thing.
You're an idiot. Rogan isn't "anit-vax", he's against the mandates and BS narrative surrounding the "pro-vax" folks (one of the reasons he left LA for TX). Rogan is all about doing what's best for yourself. To my knowledge, he's never discourages folks from getting the jab, but is pro "eplore other treatments/options" as well. Since he isn't lockstep with the "get the jab" and fear porn hustlers, he gets attached for his Ivermectin use.

Also he beat the China virus with those alternative treatments (believe he got the monoclonal treatment as soon as he tested positive) which is another reason he was attacked by CNN.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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Oh.

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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SDHornet wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:04 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:59 pm

So here is a link about CNN, but you don't watch CNN. It's a shitty, shitty cable channel, just like Fox news.
It's a dude pointing out that CNN's "medical expert" got owned by a comedian/MMA announcer. You must have missed something. :lol:
I usually stop reading when I see a shifty shifty news source like CNN.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by Gil Dobie »

SDHornet wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:25 pm Oh.

Not surprise when most Americans are vaccinated. If you are in a room with 100 people, all vaccinated, 100% of the covid cases will be breakthrough cases. Hart is spewing more BS narrative.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

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JohnStOnge wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:45 am
SDHornet wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:46 pm

CNN framed Rogan taking Ivermectin as taking the horse dewormer and not a prescribed medication from human consumption (you know the thing that won a Nobel Prize in 2015)...which is what Rogan had before taking it. Only a disingenuous person or complete retard is ok with and buys the way CNN spun the "Rogan taking Ivermectin" narrative after he caught the China Virus. Not surprised you fall into the "complete retard" category.
I was drinking and I saw some of the Rogan podcast beforehand so I was not as objective as I should have been. Yes, if CNN said Rogan took horse de-wormer they should not have done that. Also, it is a shame that they did it because it provides the opportunity to attack CNN's credibility when the basic message they are sending (Ivermectin is not effective against COVID-19) is correct. They could have done something like say Rogan was buying internet information touting an ineffective drug as effective when the medication's manufacture, in referring to using Ivermectin to treat COVID-19, says its own analysis:
No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies;
No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and;
A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.
I guess it's just easier to make a joke about how ignorant someone is acting by referring to "horse de-wormer" but whoever did it should have resisted the temptation.
Its not even very good comedy compared to shining a UV light up your ass while drinking bleach. :coffee:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by houndawg »

Gil Dobie wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:35 am
SDHornet wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:25 pm Oh.

Not surprise when most Americans are vaccinated. If you are in a room with 100 people, all vaccinated, 100% of the covid cases will be breakthrough cases. Hart is spewing more BS narrative.
Exactly. :notworthy:

And they won't be on a ventilator and clogging the ICUs
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:35 am
SDHornet wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 8:25 pm Oh.

Not surprise when most Americans are vaccinated. If you are in a room with 100 people, all vaccinated, 100% of the covid cases will be breakthrough cases. Hart is spewing more BS narrative.
Those stats also assume that everybody goes and gets tested when they get sick. I think you could make a pretty good argument that people that are vehemently anti-vax will also be less likely to get tested if and when they get sick. Conversely, the pro-vaccine folks will probably be the first folks to get tested the moment they have any symptoms. That's why case counts have been notoriously unreliable as a measure.
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