X Delaware 10-1  7-1 – I’m not even going to try to work out tiebreakers. Delaware comes back strong.

X William and Mary 9-2 7-1 – The Tribe have another great season.

X New Hampshire 9-2  7-1 – UNH continues to stretch its playoff appearances.

Y Villanova 9-2  6-2 – Defending champion returns to defend the throne.

UMass 5-6  4-4 – Things just aren’t right in Amherst.

Richmond 5-6 4-4 – CAA is tough and the Spiders just have to get things back on course.

James Madison 5-6  3-5 – The Dukes just can’t turn the corner.

Towson 2-9 1-7 – Same old for the Tigers.

Maine 3-8  1-7 – Another rough year for Maine.  Tough schedule and the CAA is strong.

Rhode Island 1-10 0-8 – Maybe the PL or NEC would be a better fit?

1. Richmond Spiders at Maine Black Bears

Richmond will be too much for an up and down Maine team.The Spiders continue the longest winning streak in FCS football.

Richmond 38   Maine 17
2. Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 5. Southern Illinois Salukis

Another classic MVFC battle in Cedar Falls. Last Saluki win in the UNI-Dome was 1983. I think the streak continues.

Northern Iowa 38  Southern Illinois 35
3. New Hampshire Wildcats at 20. Massachusetts Minutemen

New Hampshire is riding high off of a Homecoming victory over a highly ranked Villanova squad. Massachusetts is on the other end of the spectrum after a blowout loss to Delaware. Massachusetts is looking for a Homecoming win of their own, but they come up just short.

New Hampshire 27  Massachusetts 21
4. Montana Grizzlies vs. 21. Eastern Washington Eagles

The Griz take on their 2nd Top 25 opponent in a row. EWU comes into the game with a high powered offense. The Griz have shown they can win close games and I think they’ll pull out another win.

Montana 35  Eastern Washington 28
5. Southern Illinois Salukis at 2. Northern Iowa Panthers

see 2. Northern Iowa Panthers
6. Villanova Wildcats at 19. James Madison Dukes

Villanova is on the road against a ranked team for the 2nd week in a row. Last weekend they couldn’t get past an undefeated New Hampshire squad. James Madison almost took down defending champion, Richmond. JMU is at home and due for the big win.

James Madison 24 Villanova 20

7. William & Mary Tribe    BYE
8. Elon Phoenix  BYE

9. Central Arkansas Bears  vs. 16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Easily the game of the week in the Southland Conference, this game has a lot riding on the line. Central Arkansas looks to continue it’s dominance of the SLC and prove that they deserve a Top 10 ranking, while SFA looks to prove that they are back and plan to contend for the automatic bid to the playoffs. Central Arkansas is too tough at home.

Central Arkansas 34   Stephen F. Austin 31

10. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Wofford Terriers

After an 0-2 start, the Mountaineers have won 3 straight. Wofford is down after a lot of injuries have hurt depth. The hurt continues for Wofford.

Appalachian State 35  Wofford 10
11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. North Dakota State Bison

The Jackrabbits are riding high. Still undefeated in conference play heading into a tough stretch against NDSU and UNI. The Bison are off to one of their worst starts in years. One win on the year, big loss at home to UNI last week, and no Pat Paschall this week for the Bison. Jacks keep the Dakota Marker for the 3rd year in a row.

South Dakota State 35  North Dakota State 17
12. Jacksonville State Gamecocks  BYE
13. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. 22. Florida A&M Rattlers

Both teams are riding high. Each is 4-1 and 2-0 in the MEAC. Bulldogs have big game experience and homefield advantage. (read the full breakdown of this game on the FCS Update blog)

South Carolina State 24   Florida A&M 14
14. Weber State Wildcats vs Sacremento State Hornets

Weber State bounced back from their first conference loss last week with an 18-point win over Eastern Washington. Sacremento State has won two straight. The Hornets streak comes to an end.

Weber State 24  Sacremento State 14

 
15. McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons

McNeese State took a hit to their playoff hopes last week, losing their first SLC game of the season to Stephen F Austin. The Cowboys look to roll over winless Northwestern State to get their playoff train back on track.

McNeese 38 Northwestern State 7
16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at 9. Central Arkansas Bears

see 9. Central Arkansas Bears
17. Cal Poly Mustangs

Cal Poly comes home after losing to Montana last week. Southern Utah is much improved with 2 FBS losses and a close loss to 24. Northern Arizona. I think SUU pulls the upset.

Southern Utah 24 Cal Poly 21
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers

Delaware looks to claw it’s way back into the CAA race, as well as make a case for an at-large bid. Towson’s looking to turn things around. It’ll be a little longer Tiger fans.

Delaware 35  Towson 13
19. James Madison Dukes vs. 6. Villanova Wildcats

See 6. Villanova Wildcats

 
20. Massachusetts Minutemen vs. 3. New Hampshire Wildcats

See 3. New Hampshire Wildcats
21. Eastern Washington Eagles at 4. Montana Grizzlies

See 4. Montana Grizzlies
22. Florida A&M Rattlers at 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs

See 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs
23. Colgate Raiders vs. Georgetown

Colgate stays undefeated, Georgetown stays winless.

Colgate 28  Georgetown 3

 
24. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Portland State Vikings

Northern Arizona looks to prove they belong in the Top 25. Portland State looks to get on the winning track. Lumberjacks prove themselves.

Northern Arizona 38  Portland State 14

25. Furman Paladins vs. Samford Bulldogs

Samford is on the edge of falling out of the playoff hunt. Furman isn’t too far behind. The Paladins need to win this one. but they won’t.

Samford 24  Furman 17

……and hack away at it.

The 2009 season is off to a great start. The debate over who is the best team in the country is heating up more and more each week. Between the 3 major polls (AGS, Coaches, and TSN) there are 6 different teams with first place votes.

While Richmond is the consensus pick between the 3 polls, one has to wonder if this is based on this year’s performance, or if voters picked Richmond in the preseason and left them there.

I would like to see all polls wait until after week 5 of the season to start their voting. I think you would find the number one votes more equally spread out across teams like Villanova, Montana, Richmond, William and Mary, Northern Iowa and New Hampshire.

While I don’t think any one of those teams is a clear cut number one, I’d like to see what the polls would look like based solely on a teams resume.

I think we’d see South Dakota State and Massachusetts higher, and Appalachian State and Elon lower. We also might find Cal Poly, Furman, and Delaware out of the polls, with Florida A&M, Stephen F Austin, and Youngstown State in.

It’s clear that the majority of the voters in these polls do not compare resumes on a week to week basis. Most of them are sliding teams up and down with wins and losses. Teams who start off low or out of the polls can beat a top team and still end up in the middle, even though they may in fact be a top ten team.

Look at these examples:

Coaches Poll:

Cal Poly at 17. They started at 14 and have only dropped 3 spots. The Mustangs are clearly not the same team they were last year and have a 1-2 record. While the two losses were to FBS teams, they were to perennial cellar dwellers in non-BCS conferences. Coming into the season I expected Cal Poly to win both of them.

Montana State at 25. The Bobcats have hardly earned a ranking. After taking a beating from Michigan State, MSU beat lowly D-II school, Dixie State and then beat a weak Northern Colorado team, who on top of trying to build their program was fighting the injury bug.

Others recieving votes?

 Butler. The Bulldogs are 4-0. Deserving of votes, right? Not so fast. 3 of the 4 wins were against sub D-I opponents. 3! Their other win was an overtime victory over Morehead State, a team that gave St. Francis (PA) their first win in over a year when the Red Flash dominated them 31-0. Clearly the person who voted for them: A) Doesn’t pay attention or B) is a homer.

The coaches poll is flawed because most coaches are focused on their team and their opponents. They don’t watch the rest of the top 30 teams in the country. Most of the time the voting isn’t handled by the coaches anyway.

TSN Poll:

Weber State at #11. While the Wildcats shouldn’t be ruled out of the 2009 Big Sky race, they are entirely too high in the poll.  Last weekends last second victory over Portland state moved them to 2-2. Their other win came against 0-4 Idaho State. Yes the 2 losses came to FBS teams, but they could have won both of those games. In my opinion good teams find ways to win close games. 5 spots too high.

Cal Poly at #19. See coaches poll.

Others receiving votes?

The TSN has quite a few:

Winston-Salem State16 votes. Record? 0-4….seriously….

Jacksonville 8 votes. The Dolphins are 1-2 with no D-I wins. One of their losses was at home to Old Dominion, a first year team.

Butler 4 votes. See Coaches Poll.

Dayton 3 votes. 2-1 with a loss to a sub D-I school. The wins weren’t even impressive. Close games against weak schools.

Georgia Southern 1 vote. 1 vote too many. The Eagles are DOWN this year. They have a young team and have nothing to garner even one vote.

North Dakota State 1 vote. Only win is against Wagner. 1-3 heading into week 5.

San Diego 1 vote. Non scholarship team with a 2-1 record. Loss?  Northern Colorado. UNC is not a powerhouse, yet the USD lost by 19. Wins over a sub D-I school and weak non-scholarship Marist do not garner votes.

It’s clear to me that the TSN poll has too many Pioneer reps, or one very irresponsible Pioneer voter. The votes for an 0-4 WSSU just baffles me. The TSN poll could be a good poll if they cut the fat in their membership.

AGS poll:

Outside of Weber State and Cal Poly being too high, I dont have too many complaints. Every poll can be debated, but the AGS poll seems the most balanced at this point in time.

Others receiving votes?

Nothing too weird. Maybe there were some, but the AGS poll doesn’t list the teams with less than 5 votes.

The best thing about the polls is that they aren’t that important. We’re lucky enough to have a playoff system in place, and starting next year an extra 4 teams will get to join in. If you take care of business in your conference, you’re in, whether you’re ranked or not.