I’m sure I have 5-7 teams on there right now that will not be there at the end of the season, 5-7 more that are way too high, and 5-7 that are probably way to low.  I’ve always been on the side of saying the CAA is slightly overrated, although I have not beat that drum as hard as others in the FCS world.  However, it’s tough to do a legit top 25 poll and not include at least 5-6 CAA teams.  Part of that is legitimate top 25 teams, but most of it is because of the top of the conference.  The top 2 or 3 teams are usually top 10 teams, the bottom teams *coughTowsonAndycough* are bottom of the FCS.  That leaves the middle of the pack teams to beat up on each other and look tougher because of the occasional upset of a top team.  I noticed I had more Big Sky and SoCon teams than I thought I would.  As well as more MEAC, Southland and OVC teams in contention….possibly too many.

The Big Sky, SoCon and CAA take home 8 of the top 10 spots in my poll.  That seems excessive, especially to those who support teams from other conferences or who don’t really follow the FCS.  However, it doesn’t take much more than 10 minutes of research to see that there are only a handful of teams from outside of those conferences who have accomplished anything (to be honest there is only a handful of teams from those three conferences who have accomplished anything.)

Full conference break down:

Next 5 considered: Western Illinois (MVFC) , Southern Utah (Great West), Murray State(Ohio Valley), Bethune-Cookman (MEAC), Sacramento State(Big Sky)

As you know, if you have spent more than 2 minutes reading my posts, my knowledge of the FCS starts with UNI and the Missouri Valley Football Conference.  Due to that my FCS blogs on the MVFC will likely be “stronger” than my blog posts on other conferences.  I am a fan of everything FCS – yes even you PFL – so I will do my best to create a blog that gives all the major stories of the day, week, month, whatever from around the FCS proper commentary.  My first actual blog that covers anything will be my yearly MVFC predictions (game by game predictions, O and D POY, COY, playoff predictions, etc…).  I’ll also do my best to put together my preseason predictions for every conference in the FCS.  With those I’m sure I’ll catch a heck of a lot of flak for some of those, so be it.  Once the polls start rolling out I’ll start doing a “Poll Attack”, similar to what Gary Parrish does.  I think Shark Head is a giant D-Bag but I like his idea of the poll attack, and given some of the polls put out by voters from the various polls it seems like a good idea.

On top of the preseason predictions that I’ll be putting out I’m looking to do some other FCS related posts.  I’ll put out my own list (and an fcsfans.com favorite) for top and worst stadiums, best and worst uniforms, and just general commentary on things I find that pertain to the FCS in general.  I’m also open to suggestions to news stories to comment on.

Outside of the football side I’ll be doing college basketball (with an emphasis on mid-majors and FCS schools), and with the NCAA tournament coming up I’ll be doing predictions for those games, as well as my prediction for a couple other games in the NCAA’s.  I’ll also be doing some blogs and commentary on the MLB, NBA, and NFL.  I don’t really follow any other sports (well I do follow Aussie Rules Football but I’m sure I’m the only one here that does so I’ll avoid that).

I’ll do my best to be as objective as I can with this blog, but I’m not going to take a middle of the road approach.  That just isn’t who I am, and it would be a disservice to you as the reader if I tried to act that way.  If you have a problem with my opinions, want to call me out, call me names, or whatever you feel like doing so be it.  After-all:.

If there is anything you want me to look at and blog about send me a PM on fcsfans.com and let me know.  I’ll look it over and see if I feel it is worth my time to do so.

X Delaware 10-1  7-1 – I’m not even going to try to work out tiebreakers. Delaware comes back strong.

X William and Mary 9-2 7-1 – The Tribe have another great season.

X New Hampshire 9-2  7-1 – UNH continues to stretch its playoff appearances.

Y Villanova 9-2  6-2 – Defending champion returns to defend the throne.

UMass 5-6  4-4 – Things just aren’t right in Amherst.

Richmond 5-6 4-4 – CAA is tough and the Spiders just have to get things back on course.

James Madison 5-6  3-5 – The Dukes just can’t turn the corner.

Towson 2-9 1-7 – Same old for the Tigers.

Maine 3-8  1-7 – Another rough year for Maine.  Tough schedule and the CAA is strong.

Rhode Island 1-10 0-8 – Maybe the PL or NEC would be a better fit?

What a great time to be a FCS football fan, eh?

We’re down to one final week to decide all 16 playoff spots. 

Here’s a breakdown of last weekends action, as well as a look at the week ahead.

1. -  Montana wrapped up the Big Sky autobid with a 38-10 win over Northern Colorado. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be coasting this week. The Griz head to Bozeman to take on in-state rival Montana State. A win should lock up a top 2 seed for the Griz.

2.- Will the Big Sky get 2 teams in? There is a fight for a possible 2nd Big Sky bid into the playoffs Montana State, Weber State, and Eastern Washington are all 5-2 in Big Sky play. Montana State beat Weber State. Weber State beat Eastern Washington, and Eastern Washington beat Montana State.

Montana State and Eastern Washington can each get to 8 wins this weekend, but all three teams can only reach 7 D-I wins. Most prognosticators lean towards Eastern Washington, but realistically any of the three could end up in the field with a win.

3.- Liberty wraps up share of the Big South autobid. Liberty can move their record to 9-2 this weekend and also win the Big South outright with a win over Stony Brook. Will it be enough to get them an at-large bid?

4.- The CAA should end up with 4 playoff bids. Delaware and Massachusetts were for all purposes eliminated this weekend. That leaves Villanova, Richmond, William and Mary, and New Hampshire. 

5.- South Carolina State wrapped up the MEAC this weekend with a 37-13 win over Morgan State. By far the best team in the MEAC, but how will they compare to other playoff teams?  Florida A&M removed themselves from at-large consideration when they were shut out by Hampton 25-0.

6.-  In the MVFC, South Dakota State was in a close game with FBS Minnesota, but fell short, 16-13. The loss moved SDSU to 7-3 on the season. A win over Western Illinois this weekend would put the Jacks in the playoffs. 

7.- Southern Illinois wrapped up the 2009 MVFC title on Saturday with a 44-24 win over Missouri State. A win over Southeast Missouri State this weekend should wrap up a top 2 seed for the Salukis.

8.- Northern Iowa kept it’s playoff hopes alive with a 34-0 win over Western Illinois. The Panthers head to Illinois State this weekend with their playoff chances on the line. A loss would eliminate the Panthers from contention.

9.- Eastern Illinois wrapped up the OVC autobid this past weekend with a 49-13 win over Tennessee-Martin. The Panthers can win the OVC outright with a win over Tennessee State on Saturday.

10.- Holy Cross secured the Patriot League’s autobid with a win over Lafayette in a 28-26 shootout. Lafayette may be an outside bubble team come Sunday.

11.- Appalachian State shut down Elon on Saturday, 27-10. The Mountaineers secured the SoCon autobid with the win. Elon fell to 8-2 and will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend over Samford. A loss would put the Phoenix on the bubble.

12.- The Southland race comes down to the final weekend. Stephen F Austin and McNeese State are deadlocked in the standings, with SFA winning the head to head matchup. Both teams will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend. A loss jumbles the situation. Especially if both teams were to lose, in which case Texas State and Southeast Louisiana could come into play.

1. Richmond Spiders vs. 12. Massachusetts Minutemen     

 Richmond has played quite a few close games this season.  This should be another one. Massachusetts is looking for a big win to guarantee a playoff spot. Close, but no cigar.

Richmond Spiders 27       Massachusetts Minutemen 21            

2. Montana Grizzlies at Sacramento State Hornets

Montana is still undefeated on the season. No reason this should change on Saturday unless The Griz are too busy thinking about their Halloween match-up with Weber State.

Montana Grizzlies 38   Sacramento State Hornets 10
3. Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Youngstown State Penguins

Southern Illinois is riding high from last weeks’ win over UNI. The MVFC is theirs for the taking. SIU stays focused and wins without much of a scare.

Southern Illinois Salukis 31  Youngstown State Penguins 20
4. VillanovaWildcats vs. Rhode Island Rams

Villanova posted a shutout on James Madison last week. I could see a second shutout in a row this weekend.

VillanovaWildcats 35  Rhode Island Rams 3
5. Northern Iowa Panthers at 11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

The Panthers are reeling after last weeks loss to Southern Illinois. If the Panthers play like they did last week they will lose. I think they right the ship.

Northern Iowa Panthers 34  South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24
6. William & Mary Tribe vs. James Madison Dukes

The Tribe looks to keep the season going in the right direction. The Dukes are looking for anything at this point. The season outlooked changed for James Madison very quickly. William and Mary is too much for the Dukes to handle.

William & Mary Tribe 28  James Madison Dukes 10

7. Elon Phoenix at Chattanooga Mocs

Elon heads to Chatty coming off of a bye week. The Mocs are much better than expected in 2009.  We’ll see how improved Chattanooga is this week.

Elon Phoenix 35  Chattanooga Mocs 14
8. New Hampshire Wildcats at Hofsta Pride

New Hampshire suffered its first loss last week. Won’t be two in a row.

New Hampshire Wildcats 38  Hofsta Pride 7
9. Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles

Who knows what to expect in this rivalry?

Appalachian State Mountaineers 38 Georgia Southern Eagles  24

10. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats

Lumberjacks are coming off of a huge win at Central Arkansas. They keep their SLC streak going in this one.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 45  Sam Houston State Bearkats 21

 
11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. 5. Northern Iowa Panthers

See 5. Northern Iowa Panthers
12. Massachusetts Minutemen at 1. Richmond Spiders

See 1. Richmond Spiders
13. Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers

The Gamecocks aim to prove they are the best OVC team in 2009. I think they do. Unfortunately they are ineligible for the playoffs.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 31   Eastern Illinois Panthers  14

14. South Carolina State Bulldogs at Hampton Pirates

Current MEAC leader takes on the historical MEAC leader. Should make for a decent game.

South Carolina State Bulldogs 35  Hampton Pirates 21
15. McNeese State Cowboys vs Southeast Louisiana Lions

McNeese looks to improve their resume on the way to a playoff birth.

McNeese State Cowboys 24  Southeast Louisiana Lions 10
16. Central Arkansas Bears vs. Nicholls State Colonels

Nicholls State is having a rough year. It only gets worse as Central Arkansas gets back in a groove after their close loss to SFA.

Central Arkansas Bears 38  Nicholls State Colonels 7
17. Weber State Wildcats at Northern Colorado Bears

The Bears will be lucky to keep it within 3 scores.

Weber State Wildcats 35  Northern Colorado Bears 7
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens  BYE
19. Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Dixie State (D-II)

Cal Poly Mustangs 28  Dixie State 7
20. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals

NAU is fighting for a playoff spot. Could get ugly.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 45  Idaho State Bengals 10
21. Colgate Raiders at Holy Cross Crusaders

Patriot playoff bid on the line. Colgate is exposed.

Holy Cross Crusaders 35  Colgate Raiders 17
22. Furman Paladins at The Citadel Bulldogs

Furman needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Furman Paladins 24  The Citadel Bulldogs 17
23. Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Montana State Bobcats

Should be a battle for 2nd place in the Big Sky. This game is part of the battle.

Eastern Washington Eagles 38 Montana State Bobcats 21
24. Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Austin Peay Governors

The Colonels keep fighting for the OVC autobid.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels 35  Austin Peay Governors 7
25. Liberty Flames at Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Liberty Flames 28  Charleston Southern Buccaneers10

Quite a few upsets this last weekend.

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana    CAA: Richmond   MEAC: South Carolina State   MVFC: Southern Illinois   OVC: Eastern Kentucky   Patriot: Holy Cross  SoCon: Elon  Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Villanova(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Appalachian State(2nd SoCon), Northern Iowa(2nd MVFC), South Dakota State(3rd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland), Northern Arizona (2nd Big Sky)

Bracket:

 South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
Eastern Kentucky@ Appalachian State

Northern Arizona  @ Northern Iowa
 Holy Cross @ (4)Southern Illinois

Stephen F. Austin @ (2)Montana
New Hampshire @ McNeese State

William and Mary  @ South Dakota State
 Elon @ (3)Villanova

All eyes in the MEAC will focus on Orangeburg, SC this weekend as the Florida A&M Rattlers face the South Carolina State Bulldogs

Both teams take the field Saturday with an overall record of 4-1, and a MEAC record of 2-0. Florida A&M’s lone loss came to in-state FBS rival Miami, and SC State also fell to an in-state rival when the faced South Carolina.

Florida A&M comes in with national sensation, LeRoy Vann, who has been featured on ESPN because of his explosiveness in the Rattlers return game. When asked about Vann and the problems he presented, S.C. State head coach, Buddy Pough said that they would not kick the ball out of bounds to avoid Vann touching the ball. The special teams battle could easily win this game.

The Bulldogs of South Carolina State are coming off of a 2008 playoff appearance in which they came close to upsetting FCS powerhouse, Appalachian State. They are lead by Senior RB Will Ford, who leads the team with 383 yards rushing. Ford is on the Payton Award watch list after rushing for 1,499 yards last year. Their marquee win at this point in the season came against Grambling State in week one. The game ended with a final score of 34-31, but the game was never really that close. The Bulldogs struggled at times, had conditioning issues, and just were not playing to their potential. If this game were played again I would expect the Bulldogs to win by 10+.

This game could very well decide the MEAC championship which would guarantee a spot in the 2009 FCS playoffs. While the loser could still learn an at-large bid, no one wants to leave it to chance.

Coach Pough feels like both teams have a strong resume for the playoffs. While the winner clearly has the better path, Pough feels both teams belong in at this point in the season. When asked about their non-conference schedule, Couch Pough said that he felt like they played on of the toughest non-conference slates in FCS football. This schedule included a neutral site game against Grambling State, FBS South Carolina, and Winston Salem State.

I contacted Florida A&M or this article, but was unable to get a response. Current issues in their athletic department may have caused communication issues. If we can get a comment from Coach Taylor, then the story will be updated.

Prediction:

South Carolina State 24   Florida A&M 14

The big story for this week will be a preview of the marquee match-up in the MEAC: South Carolina State vs. Florida A&M. I will be posting a breakdown of the game, as well as comments from both head coaches.

Also look for the beginning of our former FCS player profile series that will feature former FCS players on the ChampionshipSubdivision.com forums.

I arrived in Fargo around noon on Saturday, welcomed by tempatures in the low 30s and occasional flurries.

After a few minutes of adjusting to the cold, I was offered food, drink, and some warmth by one of the best tailgating atmospheres in FCS football. I have never seen so many custom painted buses, RVs and vans. Special thanks to the crews at the Rainforest and Rollin Thunder tailgates. I met a lot of Bison posters throughout the West lots and appreciate their hospitality.

Inside the Fargodome the media relations crew was very friendly and I had a great time with the local Fargo media.

We’ll be getting a photo gallery posted here at cs.com in the upcoming week, so stay tuned for that.

The focus of this last week was North Dakota State RB Pat Paschall and his challenge of facing the Northern Iowa defense. All in all the battle was pretty even. Let me break it down for you.

Here’s the lowdown:

Paschall rushed for 115 yards-

Paschall tied his season low this week with 115 yards on 19 carries. This was about 35 yards below his season average. The result is that Paschall no longer leads to country in yards per game. That title has moved to Deji Karim who faces the Northern Iowa defense on Saturday. Advantage: Northern Iowa

North Dakota State rushes for 206 yards-

The Bison rolled up a team total of 206 yards on Saturday. The Bison had 5 different players with carries, including QB Nick Mertens. The 206 yards of rushing offense was 141 yards more than UNI was averaging, and the most the UNI defense has allowed this season. Advantage: North Dakota State

Overall, both parties played the game under their averages. Obviously in the end the outcome favored the Panthers, but I would say that it was a successful game for Paschall and the Bison offensive line.

Through 5 games of the season, the Northern Iowa defense is only giving up 7.6 points per game. That includes holding FBS #12 Iowa to 17. The Panther defense is 5th in the country in rushing defense, allowing 65.6 yards per game.  This is the challenge that awaits North Dakota State running back Pat Paschall, the number one running back in yards per game in FCS football.

This year’s Panther defense has left off exactly where last year ended,  replacing last year’s man in the middle, Everette Pedescleaux, who graduated last spring and is currently with the NFL’s Denver Broncos. Pedescleaux, listed at 6-6 305 lbs, has been replaced by Chuck Kinney and Wes Lane. Both senior leaders are listed at 290 pounds.

But the biggest push on the defensive line comes from  James Ruffin, a senior defensive end from Burnsville, MN. Ruffin was highly decorated after his junior season. He was named as a first team all-american by the American Football Coaches Association, Defensive Player of the Year in the Valley, first-team all-MVFC pick , second-team All-America pick by the Associated Press , third-team All-America honoree by The Sports Network. Ruffin finished last season with 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks.

As a unit, the most ground yardage the team has given up this season was against South Dakota. The Coyotes ran for 151 total yards(90 net) on 35 attempts, an average of 4.3 yards per carry.  The Coyotes only scored one TD in the game, and that came on a flea-flicker pass.

Their season low was last weekend against Indiana State. The Sycamores ran for 56 yards (42 net) on 25 attempts.

Looking forward to this battle on Saturday. We’ll finish this series with a recap over the weekend. Look forward to a photo gallery of gameday pictures from inside the Fargodome.