What a great time to be a FCS football fan, eh?

We’re down to one final week to decide all 16 playoff spots. 

Here’s a breakdown of last weekends action, as well as a look at the week ahead.

1. -  Montana wrapped up the Big Sky autobid with a 38-10 win over Northern Colorado. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be coasting this week. The Griz head to Bozeman to take on in-state rival Montana State. A win should lock up a top 2 seed for the Griz.

2.- Will the Big Sky get 2 teams in? There is a fight for a possible 2nd Big Sky bid into the playoffs Montana State, Weber State, and Eastern Washington are all 5-2 in Big Sky play. Montana State beat Weber State. Weber State beat Eastern Washington, and Eastern Washington beat Montana State.

Montana State and Eastern Washington can each get to 8 wins this weekend, but all three teams can only reach 7 D-I wins. Most prognosticators lean towards Eastern Washington, but realistically any of the three could end up in the field with a win.

3.- Liberty wraps up share of the Big South autobid. Liberty can move their record to 9-2 this weekend and also win the Big South outright with a win over Stony Brook. Will it be enough to get them an at-large bid?

4.- The CAA should end up with 4 playoff bids. Delaware and Massachusetts were for all purposes eliminated this weekend. That leaves Villanova, Richmond, William and Mary, and New Hampshire. 

5.- South Carolina State wrapped up the MEAC this weekend with a 37-13 win over Morgan State. By far the best team in the MEAC, but how will they compare to other playoff teams?  Florida A&M removed themselves from at-large consideration when they were shut out by Hampton 25-0.

6.-  In the MVFC, South Dakota State was in a close game with FBS Minnesota, but fell short, 16-13. The loss moved SDSU to 7-3 on the season. A win over Western Illinois this weekend would put the Jacks in the playoffs. 

7.- Southern Illinois wrapped up the 2009 MVFC title on Saturday with a 44-24 win over Missouri State. A win over Southeast Missouri State this weekend should wrap up a top 2 seed for the Salukis.

8.- Northern Iowa kept it’s playoff hopes alive with a 34-0 win over Western Illinois. The Panthers head to Illinois State this weekend with their playoff chances on the line. A loss would eliminate the Panthers from contention.

9.- Eastern Illinois wrapped up the OVC autobid this past weekend with a 49-13 win over Tennessee-Martin. The Panthers can win the OVC outright with a win over Tennessee State on Saturday.

10.- Holy Cross secured the Patriot League’s autobid with a win over Lafayette in a 28-26 shootout. Lafayette may be an outside bubble team come Sunday.

11.- Appalachian State shut down Elon on Saturday, 27-10. The Mountaineers secured the SoCon autobid with the win. Elon fell to 8-2 and will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend over Samford. A loss would put the Phoenix on the bubble.

12.- The Southland race comes down to the final weekend. Stephen F Austin and McNeese State are deadlocked in the standings, with SFA winning the head to head matchup. Both teams will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend. A loss jumbles the situation. Especially if both teams were to lose, in which case Texas State and Southeast Louisiana could come into play.

1. Richmond Spiders at Maine Black Bears

My Prediction: Richmond 38   Maine 17

Reality: Richmond 38   Maine 21

Pretty close on this prediction. Richmond didn’t show up for the first half but put the Black Bears away in the second half. No one has had an easy time in Orono this season.

 
2. Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 5. Southern Illinois Salukis

My Prediction: Northern Iowa 38  Southern Illinois 35

Reality:   Southern Illinois 27  Northern Iowa 20

Not the offensive shootout I was predicting. This was a typical game in this series, other than the fact that the visiting team won for the first time in 13 games. The Southern Illinois offense was clicking for most of the game and had great special teams. The Panther defense held their own (1 TD was an INT return, and another was after a special teams fumble on the UNI 7). I look for both of these teams to make the quarterfinals this year.

3. New Hampshire Wildcats at 20. Massachusetts Minutemen

My Prediction: New Hampshire 27  Massachusetts 21

Reality:   Massachusetts23 New Hampshire 17

What a crazy game?! New Hampshire drove in the last minute to the UMass 13, but couldn’t score. I expected this game to be close, but not come down to the last play. UMass is fighting their way back into playoff contention. 5 CAA teams looks like a lock at this point. 6 might be a possibility.

 
4. Montana Grizzlies vs. 21. Eastern Washington Eagles

My Prediction: Montana 35  Eastern Washington 28

Reality: Montana 41 Eastern Washington 34

Not too far off on this one. Montana pulls off the 7 pt win. Montana faces Weber State on Halloween. Should be a shootout.

5. Southern Illinois Salukis at 2. Northern Iowa Panthers

see 2. Northern Iowa Panthers
6. Villanova Wildcats at 19. James Madison Dukes

My Prediction: James Madison 24 Villanova 20

Reality:  Villanova 27 James Madison 0

Way off on this one. Apparently James Madison forgot they had a game today. Very suprising with the way they’ve played everyone else this season. Good bounce back for Villanova.

7. William & Mary Tribe    BYE

 
8. Elon Phoenix  BYE

9. Central Arkansas Bears  vs. 16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

My Prediction: Central Arkansas 34   Stephen F. Austin 31

Reality: Stephen F. Austin 33 Central Arkansas 30

Close game as predicted, different winner. Stephen F Austin puts themselves in the driver’s seat for the SLC autobid.

10. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Wofford Terriers

My Prediction: Appalachian State 35  Wofford 10

Reality: Appalachian State 44 Wofford 34

Much closer game than predicted. App St stays undefeated in SoCon play.

 
11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. North Dakota State Bison

My Prediction: South Dakota State 35  North Dakota State 17

Reality: South Dakota State 28  North Dakota State 13

North Dakota State continues their slide. Jackrabbits face Northern Iowa in a game that could end the playoff hopes of the loser.

 
12. Jacksonville State Gamecocks  BYE

 
13. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. 22. Florida A&M Rattlers

My Prediction: South Carolina State 24   Florida A&M 14

Reality: South Carolina State 35   Florida A&M 20

Bulldogs are on their way to the playoffs. No one else should stand in their way.

 
14. Weber State Wildcats vs Sacremento State Hornets

My Prediction: Weber State 24  Sacremento State 14

Reality: Weber State 49  Sacremento State 10

The Wildcats win by a much larger margin that I predicted. Montana game is looming large in two weeks. Loss to Montana State could haunt them.

 
15. McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons

My Prediction: McNeese 38 Northwestern State 7

Reality: McNeese 51 Northwestern State 23

Much higher scoring than I figured. McNeese stays in the playoff hunt.

 
16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at 9. Central Arkansas Bears

 see 9. Central Arkansas Bears

 
17. Cal Poly Mustangs

My Prediction: Southern Utah 24 Cal Poly 21

Reality:  Cal Poly 24 Southern Utah 23

Great game, came down to the wire. Cal Poly stays on top of the Great West.
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers

My Prediction: Delaware 35  Towson 13

Reality: Delaware 49 Towson 21

Delaware is really clicking now. Fighting for the 5th CAA bid.
19. James Madison Dukes vs. 6. Villanova Wildcats

See 6. Villanova Wildcats

 
20. Massachusetts Minutemen vs. 3. New Hampshire Wildcats

 See 3. New Hampshire Wildcats
21. Eastern Washington Eagles at 4. Montana Grizzlies

See 4. Montana Grizzlies
22. Florida A&M Rattlers at 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs

See 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs
23. Colgate Raiders vs. Georgetown

My Prediction: Colgate 28  Georgetown 3

Reality: Colgate 31  Georgetown 14

A little bit closer than I thought. Same result.

 
24. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Portland State Vikings

My Prediction: Northern Arizona 38  Portland State 14

Reality: Northern Arizona 44  Portland State 23

The Lumberjacks are in the hunt for a playoff bid. 2nd place in the Big Sky should get them there.

25. Furman Paladins vs. Samford Bulldogs

My Prediction: Samford 24  Furman 17

Reality: Furman 26 Samford 24

Furman keeps their playoff hopes alive.

My record this week: 10-6

On the season: 23-10

In early Top 25 games:

Looks like I’m going to be under on No. 22 Holy Cross. I predicted a 35-7 win, but going into halftime they already have a 35-7 lead.

So far I’m WAY off on No. 10 Appalachian State against The Citadel, who is unranked. I picked the Mountaineers to win 42-24, but at the half they are down 13-7.

The 2009 season is off to a great start. The debate over who is the best team in the country is heating up more and more each week. Between the 3 major polls (AGS, Coaches, and TSN) there are 6 different teams with first place votes.

While Richmond is the consensus pick between the 3 polls, one has to wonder if this is based on this year’s performance, or if voters picked Richmond in the preseason and left them there.

I would like to see all polls wait until after week 5 of the season to start their voting. I think you would find the number one votes more equally spread out across teams like Villanova, Montana, Richmond, William and Mary, Northern Iowa and New Hampshire.

While I don’t think any one of those teams is a clear cut number one, I’d like to see what the polls would look like based solely on a teams resume.

I think we’d see South Dakota State and Massachusetts higher, and Appalachian State and Elon lower. We also might find Cal Poly, Furman, and Delaware out of the polls, with Florida A&M, Stephen F Austin, and Youngstown State in.

It’s clear that the majority of the voters in these polls do not compare resumes on a week to week basis. Most of them are sliding teams up and down with wins and losses. Teams who start off low or out of the polls can beat a top team and still end up in the middle, even though they may in fact be a top ten team.

Look at these examples:

Coaches Poll:

Cal Poly at 17. They started at 14 and have only dropped 3 spots. The Mustangs are clearly not the same team they were last year and have a 1-2 record. While the two losses were to FBS teams, they were to perennial cellar dwellers in non-BCS conferences. Coming into the season I expected Cal Poly to win both of them.

Montana State at 25. The Bobcats have hardly earned a ranking. After taking a beating from Michigan State, MSU beat lowly D-II school, Dixie State and then beat a weak Northern Colorado team, who on top of trying to build their program was fighting the injury bug.

Others recieving votes?

 Butler. The Bulldogs are 4-0. Deserving of votes, right? Not so fast. 3 of the 4 wins were against sub D-I opponents. 3! Their other win was an overtime victory over Morehead State, a team that gave St. Francis (PA) their first win in over a year when the Red Flash dominated them 31-0. Clearly the person who voted for them: A) Doesn’t pay attention or B) is a homer.

The coaches poll is flawed because most coaches are focused on their team and their opponents. They don’t watch the rest of the top 30 teams in the country. Most of the time the voting isn’t handled by the coaches anyway.

TSN Poll:

Weber State at #11. While the Wildcats shouldn’t be ruled out of the 2009 Big Sky race, they are entirely too high in the poll.  Last weekends last second victory over Portland state moved them to 2-2. Their other win came against 0-4 Idaho State. Yes the 2 losses came to FBS teams, but they could have won both of those games. In my opinion good teams find ways to win close games. 5 spots too high.

Cal Poly at #19. See coaches poll.

Others receiving votes?

The TSN has quite a few:

Winston-Salem State16 votes. Record? 0-4….seriously….

Jacksonville 8 votes. The Dolphins are 1-2 with no D-I wins. One of their losses was at home to Old Dominion, a first year team.

Butler 4 votes. See Coaches Poll.

Dayton 3 votes. 2-1 with a loss to a sub D-I school. The wins weren’t even impressive. Close games against weak schools.

Georgia Southern 1 vote. 1 vote too many. The Eagles are DOWN this year. They have a young team and have nothing to garner even one vote.

North Dakota State 1 vote. Only win is against Wagner. 1-3 heading into week 5.

San Diego 1 vote. Non scholarship team with a 2-1 record. Loss?  Northern Colorado. UNC is not a powerhouse, yet the USD lost by 19. Wins over a sub D-I school and weak non-scholarship Marist do not garner votes.

It’s clear to me that the TSN poll has too many Pioneer reps, or one very irresponsible Pioneer voter. The votes for an 0-4 WSSU just baffles me. The TSN poll could be a good poll if they cut the fat in their membership.

AGS poll:

Outside of Weber State and Cal Poly being too high, I dont have too many complaints. Every poll can be debated, but the AGS poll seems the most balanced at this point in time.

Others receiving votes?

Nothing too weird. Maybe there were some, but the AGS poll doesn’t list the teams with less than 5 votes.

The best thing about the polls is that they aren’t that important. We’re lucky enough to have a playoff system in place, and starting next year an extra 4 teams will get to join in. If you take care of business in your conference, you’re in, whether you’re ranked or not.