AZGrizFan wrote:Show me a libertarian or conk on this site who’s been a cheerleader for the tariffs? I personally blame the decision to go after China on tariffs for the decline in the market over the past 4 months. While I DO think something needed to be done about the unlevel playing field, and I DO believe that any “conversion” was going to be painful, Trump’s lack of decorum hasn’t helped the situation any.
While tariffs were/are a factor, the biggest reason was Jerome Powell's inability to articulate his thoughts without scaring the market. You can go back and pinpoint the start of the drop on October 3rd to the hour of his "we're a long way from getting rates to neutral" comment. And he kept doubling down on that for nearly 2 months with terms like "autopilot" regarding the balance sheet unwinding. He is not a market guy and doesn't seem to understand the market's sensitivity to his every word (which is baffling because a person in that position should know that). Then Trump started feuding with the Fed on their appearance of being over-aggressive. Trump was right but, as usual, he went overboard and the market got further spooked with the uncertainty of his overreach possibilities. It wasn't until the day after Christmas, when Kevin Hassett's remarks that Powell was safe, that the market rebounded.
October 3rd was also the beginning of a long slide in oil prices from $76 to $42. That put a lot of pressure on the market. Then there was the crazy action in the bond market. Brexit concerns added a little weight too, as well as the Mid-term elections. Apple showing weakness also contributed to the decline as the 7th biggest "weight' of the DJIA.