Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:48 pm

Silenoz wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:On to the quarterfinals of the Bison Invitational. :coffee:


I look forward to another 50 point romp


Actually the only drama is I see is the inevitable EWU-WSU rematch. Has EWU improved? Is WSU the class of the rest of the FCS?

Of course the winner of that game loses by 30-40 to NDSU so the drama ends there, but it will be nice while it lasts.


You’re as fatalistic as a Children of Men redux or a Hens fan. I now hope Davis meets Colgate in the chipper.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Grizalltheway » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:56 pm

kalm wrote:
Silenoz wrote:
I look forward to another 50 point romp


Actually the only drama is I see is the inevitable EWU-WSU rematch. Has EWU improved? Is WSU the class of the rest of the FCS?

Of course the winner of that game loses by 30-40 to NDSU so the drama ends there, but it will be nice while it lasts.


You’re as fatalistic as a Children of Men redux or a Hens fan. I now hope Davis meets Colgate in the chipper.

Crazier things have happened. Colgate and UD made it in the same year. :shock:

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:38 pm

I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby BlackFalkin » Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:09 am

Not one thread about the 2018 FCS Quarterfinals on FCSFans? This forum is really this bad apparently... :ohno: :twocents:

GoEags!
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:56 am

BlackFalkin wrote:Not one thread about the 2018 FCS Quarterfinals on FCSFans? This forum is really this bad apparently... :ohno: :twocents:

GoEags!


Honor belongs to Mvemjsunpx, be patient young Falkin.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:59 am

JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:44 am

JohnStOnge wrote:I might do more of this kind of thing later but for now just a quick check.

The earliest set of Sagarin ratings I can get to is for 1998. In the context of the overall Division I final rankings then the top 5 I-AA teams were rated 64, 65, 66, 79, and 88.

As of now in 2018 the top 5 FCS (I-AA) teams are rated 24, 58, 73, 79, and 90.

Obviously North Dakota State is the 24. But, at least according to Sagarin, I'm not seeing a big difference between 2 through 5 in 1998 and 2 through 5 in 2018 in terms of how the top I-AA/FCS teams rank in the overall Division I context.


Massey goes all the way back to the beginning of FCS. Like Gil pointed out regarding the last 5 years of the last decade Sagarin numbers that 93Hen used, if you go all the way back it varies a little by year, but really not that much. Here's a few examples. It's obvious that FCS was better when the SWAC and Big Sky were dominating. :lol:

2018:

24 N Dakota St

51 Princeton

61 E Washington

72 S Dakota St

79 Dartmouth

2016:

28 James Madison

45 N Dakota St

65 Youngstown St

68 E Washington

84 S Dakota St

2007:

44 Appalachian St

71 Northern Iowa

76 N Dakota St

77 Richmond

78 Delaware

2003:

37 James Madison

58 Harvard

64 New Hampshire

69 William & Mary

77 Delaware

2000:

40 Ga Southern

57 Montana

65 Delaware

75 Lehigh

77 Appalachian St

1996:

23 Marshall

47 Montana

70 Northern Iowa

83 William & Mary

87 Furman

1985:

39 Furman

42 Ga Southern

47 Nevada

54 Appalachian St

57 Arkansas St

1981:

23 Idaho St

40 E Kentucky

52 Boise St

81 Nevada

87 Montana

1978:

51 Florida A&M

61 Nevada

68 Massachusetts

86 Jackson St

102 Grambling
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Silenoz » Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:22 am

kalm wrote:
Silenoz wrote:
I look forward to another 50 point romp


Actually the only drama is I see is the inevitable EWU-WSU rematch. Has EWU improved? Is WSU the class of the rest of the FCS?

Of course the winner of that game loses by 30-40 to NDSU so the drama ends there, but it will be nice while it lasts.


You’re as fatalistic as a Children of Men redux or a Hens fan. I now hope Davis meets Colgate in the chipper.

Jokes on you, Children of Men ends on a hopeful note!

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:25 am

Silenoz wrote:
kalm wrote:
You’re as fatalistic as a Children of Men redux or a Hens fan. I now hope Davis meets Colgate in the chipper.

Jokes on you, Children of Men ends on a hopeful note!


So you're saying we've got a chance!
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:11 pm

I really don't think there is any trend towards I-AA/FCS getting weaker than it was 10, 20, or 30 years ago within the context of Division I. I think great programs have left and other programs have gotten better, other programs have moved from D-II to I-AA/FCS and flourished, and still other programs have started up.

I guess it's likely that it would be stronger if none of the great programs like Appalachian State and Georgia Southern had moved to I-A/FBS. But I don't think it's gotten weaker than it was.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Pwns » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:32 am

So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:39 am

Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.


Maine's starting QB got hurt in the CMU game (he also missed the Yale loss, which explains that one).

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Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Maineman32 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:40 am

Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:
They lost to 1-11 CMU with their starting QB injured....



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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:17 am

Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:


Giving up 22 schollies, on the road. :roll:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:18 am

Although after watching last nights pillow fight I might eventually admit that offenses and the forward pass have regressed a little.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:09 am

Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:


Don't try to use actual results, statistics, numbers, or facts. That goes right over their heads.

These are "water-will-return-to-its-previous-level" type folks. Nothing factual you present to them will change their mind. Take away several of the best teams, put several more into multi-year funks....

don't matter. Some Southland or Patriot or NEC team will rise up and keep the level the same. :lol:

They know they're wrong. I understand message board stubbornness.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:55 pm

FCS's "best" Defense: 0
NDSU: 35

/thread

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Silenoz » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:33 pm

93henfan wrote:FCS's "best" Defense: 0
NDSU: 35

/thread

I'm sure the semis and finals will be exciting



...for the first 1-4 minutes

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:48 pm

Silenoz wrote:
93henfan wrote:FCS's "best" Defense: 0
NDSU: 35

/thread

I'm sure the semis and finals will be exciting



...for the first 1-4 minutes


:D

Well, one of the semis won't have NDSU, so it'll be like 60 minutes of midget wrestling, and when is midget wrestling not exciting?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:05 pm

93henfan wrote:/thread

It's been over for a long time. I've never seen a worse beating than what Gil and Kalm took on this thread. Kalm is close to admitting he was wrong, but I don't thing Gil will.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:24 pm

89Hen wrote:
93henfan wrote:/thread

It's been over for a long time. I've never seen a worse beating than what Gil and Kalm took on this thread. Kalm is close to admitting he was wrong, but I don't thing Gil will.


Sorry CAAn't take the CAAn't win fans seriously.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby JohnStOnge » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:08 pm

Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:


And you had a team that didn't make the FCS playoffs beat Colorado State 35-19. If you're going to use score comparisons that's what Sagarin's ratings system does. It compares all scores comprehensively. And by the Sagarin ratings there isn't much difference between how FCS teams rate now within the context of Division I and how I-AA teams rated 20 years ago within the context of Division I.

You're a Georgia Southern fan so you know that Georgia Southern's great teams for some reason could never beat I-A teams until they beat Florida in their last game as a I-AA. At least I don't recall them beating a I-A until that big Florida win. Like Georgia Southern won the national championship with a dominating win over Arkansas State in 1986. It was an Arkansas State team that tied 8-3-1 Ole Miss . But Georgia Southern lost that year to 3-8 East Carolina. East Carolina even lost to the school we now know as Louisiana-Lafayette that year. The only teams they beat other than Georgia Southern were 0-11 Temple and 5-6 Cincinnati. So that year the I-AA national champ lost to a really bad I-A team.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Baldy » Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:42 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:


And you had a team that didn't make the FCS playoffs beat Colorado State 35-19. If you're going to use score comparisons that's what Sagarin's ratings system does. It compares all scores comprehensively. And by the Sagarin ratings there isn't much difference between how FCS teams rate now within the context of Division I and how I-AA teams rated 20 years ago within the context of Division I.

You're a Georgia Southern fan so you know that Georgia Southern's great teams for some reason could never beat I-A teams until they beat Florida in their last game as a I-AA. At least I don't recall them beating a I-A until that big Florida win. Like Georgia Southern won the national championship with a dominating win over Arkansas State in 1986. It was an Arkansas State team that tied 8-3-1 Ole Miss . But Georgia Southern lost that year to 3-8 East Carolina. East Carolina even lost to the school we now know as Louisiana-Lafayette that year. The only teams they beat other than Georgia Southern were 0-11 Temple and 5-6 Cincinnati. So that year the I-AA national champ lost to a really bad I-A team.

"Colorado State" :lol:
CSU's 3 wins were against teams whose combined record was 6-30 this season.

You need to find a better indicator than a highly flawed Sagarin Ratings. :?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Pwns » Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:00 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Pwns wrote:So, you've got a quarter-finalist in the playoffs who lost to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

And you've got a semi-finalist who lost 17-5 to a 1-11 MAC team and barely beat a 2-win WKU team.

SMH. :ohno:


And you had a team that didn't make the FCS playoffs beat Colorado State 35-19. If you're going to use score comparisons that's what Sagarin's ratings system does. It compares all scores comprehensively. And by the Sagarin ratings there isn't much difference between how FCS teams rate now within the context of Division I and how I-AA teams rated 20 years ago within the context of Division I.

You're a Georgia Southern fan so you know that Georgia Southern's great teams for some reason could never beat I-A teams until they beat Florida in their last game as a I-AA. At least I don't recall them beating a I-A until that big Florida win. Like Georgia Southern won the national championship with a dominating win over Arkansas State in 1986. It was an Arkansas State team that tied 8-3-1 Ole Miss . But Georgia Southern lost that year to 3-8 East Carolina. East Carolina even lost to the school we now know as Louisiana-Lafayette that year. The only teams they beat other than Georgia Southern were 0-11 Temple and 5-6 Cincinnati. So that year the I-AA national champ lost to a really bad I-A team.


Go back and look at the ECU team's schedule from that season. You'd think they were in a major conference with all the big names on it. Aside from that game, most of our FBS games were against blue bloods like UGA, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Miami. We didn't get many games against the Wyomings, CMUs, Colorado States, Minnesotas, or even Kansas State's except when we briefly went away from an option offense.

But that's beside the point. You seem to be implying I'm cherry-picking here, but I think I've seen enough to say that's not the case. I've said before in this thread that the CAA not being up to what it was is a big reason the FCS isn't as strong as it used to be and not just the FBS defectors. A CAA playoff team lost to a Duquesne team that was destroyed by UMass, Maine has looked bad against multiple bad G5 teams, Kennesaw lost to Georgia State, and a second team that eliminated a CAA playoff team was soundly beaten by the fourth or fifth-best Sun Belt team. That seems more like signal than noise.

You can't tell me all that could happen in the CAA's of most of the '00s. The year-by-year comparisons of Sagarin aren't really overly convincing. The wave of recent start-ups that think they're going to be the next UCF because they're in a market are most certainly dead weight in the G5 as well as programs like Texas State that have money but still suck. That doesn't mean the FCS isn't weaker than it was.

One more comment, 4 of the 10 Sun Belt teams in the current Sagarin rankings would be top 5, and 7 of the 10 would be top-25. For a conference that gets mocked as being a glorified FCS conference, it seems pretty damn strong.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Baldy » Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:03 pm

Pwns wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
And you had a team that didn't make the FCS playoffs beat Colorado State 35-19. If you're going to use score comparisons that's what Sagarin's ratings system does. It compares all scores comprehensively. And by the Sagarin ratings there isn't much difference between how FCS teams rate now within the context of Division I and how I-AA teams rated 20 years ago within the context of Division I.

You're a Georgia Southern fan so you know that Georgia Southern's great teams for some reason could never beat I-A teams until they beat Florida in their last game as a I-AA. At least I don't recall them beating a I-A until that big Florida win. Like Georgia Southern won the national championship with a dominating win over Arkansas State in 1986. It was an Arkansas State team that tied 8-3-1 Ole Miss . But Georgia Southern lost that year to 3-8 East Carolina. East Carolina even lost to the school we now know as Louisiana-Lafayette that year. The only teams they beat other than Georgia Southern were 0-11 Temple and 5-6 Cincinnati. So that year the I-AA national champ lost to a really bad I-A team.


Go back and look at the ECU team's schedule from that season. You'd think they were in a major conference with all the big names on it. Aside from that game, most of our FBS games were against blue bloods like UGA, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, and Miami. We didn't get many games against the Wyomings, CMUs, Colorado States, Minnesotas, or even Kansas State's except when we briefly went away from an option offense.

But that's beside the point. You seem to be implying I'm cherry-picking here, but I think I've seen enough to say that's not the case. I've said before in this thread that the CAA not being up to what it was is a big reason the FCS isn't as strong as it used to be and not just the FBS defectors. A CAA playoff team lost to a Duquesne team that was destroyed by UMass, Maine has looked bad against multiple bad G5 teams, Kennesaw lost to Georgia State, and a second team that eliminated a CAA playoff team was soundly beaten by the fourth or fifth-best Sun Belt team. That seems more like signal than noise.

You can't tell me all that could happen in the CAA's of most of the '00s. The year-by-year comparisons of Sagarin aren't really overly convincing. The wave of recent start-ups that think they're going to be the next UCF because they're in a market are most certainly dead weight in the G5 as well as programs like Texas State that have money but still suck. That doesn't mean the FCS isn't weaker than it was.

One more comment, 4 of the 10 Sun Belt teams in the current Sagarin rankings would be top 5, and 7 of the 10 would be top-25. For a conference that gets mocked as being a glorified FCS conference, it seems pretty damn strong.

Not to mention, the Sun Belch as a whole (Eastern Division specifically) is heads and shoulders better than the MVFC, which is head and shoulders better than the rest of FCS...according to JSO's Sagarin anyway.


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