Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

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Re: RE: Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby SeattleGriz » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:23 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
SeattleGriz wrote:
It's Royce Engstrom's fault.

On the bright side, we do have Idaho back. Now they just need to get a lot better.

Fixed
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 89Hen » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:42 pm

kalm wrote:This is really just a debate between traditional powers/dynasties vs. new powers/dynasties, one in which you're failing at badly. :nod:

You'd prefer the old and are shaking your fist from you lawn. I'm thinking this is one of the more exciting years we've had in the FCS for quite awhile.

GFY kalm. Coastal and ODU are traditional powers. :dunce:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Pwns » Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:55 pm

You know what really makes me think more than anything the FCS isn't what is used to be? Consider coaching records.

Chris Klieman has a 63-6 coaching record. That's a 10:1 ratio of wins to losses.
Craig Bohl had a three-year run where he was 43-2. That's a 20:1 ratio (!) of wins.
Meanwhile, at JMU Mike Houston is 34-5 (about 7:1 ratio), and what, 2 of those losses are to Power 5 teams. I think he's basically lost to 1 FCS team not named NDSU.

Just for comparison, Nick Saban has just over a 6:1 ratio of wins to losses.

Now go and think through all of the other great coaches that have come up through the FCS over the years ... Roy Kidd, Erk Russell, Jim Tressel, Don Read, Tubby Raymond, Paul Johnson, and Jerry Moore. None of them have the winning percentage to match any of those 3.

Are the three aforementioned coaches from NDSU and JMU really better than all of those? Have the three best FCS coaches ever simply all come in the same era? Occam's Razor says not very likely at all, especially considering Bohl can go to Wyoming and look pretty average by the standard of Wyoming coaches.

Now I do think the FCS has been hurt from the departures, but that's not the only problem. I do agree with 93 and 89 that all of this year's CAA teams would probably be middle-of-the-pack CAA teams in the late '00s (with or without ODU).
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:41 am

Pwns wrote:You know what really makes me think more than anything the FCS isn't what is used to be? Consider coaching records.

Chris Klieman has a 63-6 coaching record. That's a 10:1 ratio of wins to losses.
Craig Bohl had a three-year run where he was 43-2. That's a 20:1 ratio (!) of wins.
Meanwhile, at JMU Mike Houston is 34-5 (about 7:1 ratio), and what, 2 of those losses are to Power 5 teams. I think he's basically lost to 1 FCS team not named NDSU.

Just for comparison, Nick Saban has just over a 6:1 ratio of wins to losses.

Now go and think through all of the other great coaches that have come up through the FCS over the years ... Roy Kidd, Erk Russell, Jim Tressel, Don Read, Tubby Raymond, Paul Johnson, and Jerry Moore. None of them have the winning percentage to match any of those 3.

Are the three aforementioned coaches from NDSU and JMU really better than all of those? Have the three best FCS coaches ever simply all come in the same era? Occam's Razor says not very likely at all, especially considering Bohl can go to Wyoming and look pretty average by the standard of Wyoming coaches.

Now I do think the FCS has been hurt from the departures, but that's not the only problem. I do agree with 93 and 89 that all of this year's CAA teams would probably be middle-of-the-pack CAA teams in the late '00s (with or without ODU).


NDSU started winning championships when Klieman joined in 2011 and improved on the defensive side of the ball. It took Bohl several years at NDSU to get them to where they were in 2011. Bohl was the great recruiter, and Klieman the defensive coach that got them there. Of the coaches mentioned above, how many had great success at the next level? Tressel? I agree that the CAA is down compared to it's little streak before EWU and NDSU came along. 2016 & 17 JMU could have won or completed with any CAA champ in the last 20 years.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:26 am

Gil Dobie wrote:
Pwns wrote:You know what really makes me think more than anything the FCS isn't what is used to be? Consider coaching records.

Chris Klieman has a 63-6 coaching record. That's a 10:1 ratio of wins to losses.
Craig Bohl had a three-year run where he was 43-2. That's a 20:1 ratio (!) of wins.
Meanwhile, at JMU Mike Houston is 34-5 (about 7:1 ratio), and what, 2 of those losses are to Power 5 teams. I think he's basically lost to 1 FCS team not named NDSU.

Just for comparison, Nick Saban has just over a 6:1 ratio of wins to losses.

Now go and think through all of the other great coaches that have come up through the FCS over the years ... Roy Kidd, Erk Russell, Jim Tressel, Don Read, Tubby Raymond, Paul Johnson, and Jerry Moore. None of them have the winning percentage to match any of those 3.

Are the three aforementioned coaches from NDSU and JMU really better than all of those? Have the three best FCS coaches ever simply all come in the same era? Occam's Razor says not very likely at all, especially considering Bohl can go to Wyoming and look pretty average by the standard of Wyoming coaches.

Now I do think the FCS has been hurt from the departures, but that's not the only problem. I do agree with 93 and 89 that all of this year's CAA teams would probably be middle-of-the-pack CAA teams in the late '00s (with or without ODU).


NDSU started winning championships when Klieman joined in 2011 and improved on the defensive side of the ball. It took Bohl several years at NDSU to get them to where they were in 2011. Bohl was the great recruiter, and Klieman the defensive coach that got them there. Of the coaches mentioned above, how many had great success at the next level? Tressel? I agree that the CAA is down compared to it's little streak before EWU and NDSU came along. 2016 & 17 JMU could have won or completed with any CAA champ in the last 20 years.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:33 am

Pwns wrote:You know what really makes me think more than anything the FCS isn't what is used to be? Consider coaching records.

Chris Klieman has a 63-6 coaching record. That's a 10:1 ratio of wins to losses.
Craig Bohl had a three-year run where he was 43-2. That's a 20:1 ratio (!) of wins.
Meanwhile, at JMU Mike Houston is 34-5 (about 7:1 ratio), and what, 2 of those losses are to Power 5 teams. I think he's basically lost to 1 FCS team not named NDSU.

Just for comparison, Nick Saban has just over a 6:1 ratio of wins to losses.

Now go and think through all of the other great coaches that have come up through the FCS over the years ... Roy Kidd, Erk Russell, Jim Tressel, Don Read, Tubby Raymond, Paul Johnson, and Jerry Moore. None of them have the winning percentage to match any of those 3.

Are the three aforementioned coaches from NDSU and JMU really better than all of those? Have the three best FCS coaches ever simply all come in the same era? Occam's Razor says not very likely at all, especially considering Bohl can go to Wyoming and look pretty average by the standard of Wyoming coaches.

Now I do think the FCS has been hurt from the departures, but that's not the only problem. I do agree with 93 and 89 that all of this year's CAA teams would probably be middle-of-the-pack CAA teams in the late '00s (with or without ODU).


Yeah that's a pretty big stretch of a comparison and a small sample size compared to the others.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby DMoo531 » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:28 am

I blame Montana

Why MT? I realize they have been to the playoffs more than anyone, and they've taken last place more than anyone. Granted they rarely put together a team like the '96 Griz, but who but NDSU has?

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Grizalltheway » Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:18 am

DMoo531 wrote:I blame Montana

Why MT? I realize they have been to the playoffs more than anyone, and they've taken last place more than anyone. Granted they rarely put together a team like the '96 Griz, but who but NDSU has?

What the **** are you on about, moron? :lol:

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Pwns » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:27 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:
Pwns wrote:You know what really makes me think more than anything the FCS isn't what is used to be? Consider coaching records.

Chris Klieman has a 63-6 coaching record. That's a 10:1 ratio of wins to losses.
Craig Bohl had a three-year run where he was 43-2. That's a 20:1 ratio (!) of wins.
Meanwhile, at JMU Mike Houston is 34-5 (about 7:1 ratio), and what, 2 of those losses are to Power 5 teams. I think he's basically lost to 1 FCS team not named NDSU.

Just for comparison, Nick Saban has just over a 6:1 ratio of wins to losses.

Now go and think through all of the other great coaches that have come up through the FCS over the years ... Roy Kidd, Erk Russell, Jim Tressel, Don Read, Tubby Raymond, Paul Johnson, and Jerry Moore. None of them have the winning percentage to match any of those 3.

Are the three aforementioned coaches from NDSU and JMU really better than all of those? Have the three best FCS coaches ever simply all come in the same era? Occam's Razor says not very likely at all, especially considering Bohl can go to Wyoming and look pretty average by the standard of Wyoming coaches.

Now I do think the FCS has been hurt from the departures, but that's not the only problem. I do agree with 93 and 89 that all of this year's CAA teams would probably be middle-of-the-pack CAA teams in the late '00s (with or without ODU).


NDSU started winning championships when Klieman joined in 2011 and improved on the defensive side of the ball. It took Bohl several years at NDSU to get them to where they were in 2011. Bohl was the great recruiter, and Klieman the defensive coach that got them there. Of the coaches mentioned above, how many had great success at the next level? Tressel? I agree that the CAA is down compared to it's little streak before EWU and NDSU came along. 2016 & 17 JMU could have won or completed with any CAA champ in the last 20 years.


Paul Johnson brought Navy out of irrelevancy and has won an ACC Championship and an Orange Bowl at Tech where it isn't easy to win. He's arguably a better coach than Bohl is. Most of the rest other than Tressel were at their last coaching stops before retirement. Neither Johnson nor Tressel have the same winning percentage in IAA as NDSU 2011-2018 or JMU 2016-2018. Erk Russell was arguably an even better coach than Johnson and even 1985-1989 with 3 national championships in that time his win percentage wasn't that high.

The idea that Klieman, Bohl, and Houston are the top 3 coaches in the subdivision all time is a really, really hard sell, but not when you look only at championships and records.

BTW, it's not just me saying this. Klieman himself has remarked on this subject.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby SeattleGriz » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:37 pm

Bobby Hauck was 80-17 during his first stint as UM coach (03-09).
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:54 pm

Pwns wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
NDSU started winning championships when Klieman joined in 2011 and improved on the defensive side of the ball. It took Bohl several years at NDSU to get them to where they were in 2011. Bohl was the great recruiter, and Klieman the defensive coach that got them there. Of the coaches mentioned above, how many had great success at the next level? Tressel? I agree that the CAA is down compared to it's little streak before EWU and NDSU came along. 2016 & 17 JMU could have won or completed with any CAA champ in the last 20 years.


Paul Johnson brought Navy out of irrelevancy and has won an ACC Championship and an Orange Bowl at Tech where it isn't easy to win. He's arguably a better coach than Bohl is. Most of the rest other than Tressel were at their last coaching stops before retirement. Neither Johnson nor Tressel have the same winning percentage in IAA as NDSU 2011-2018 or JMU 2016-2018. Erk Russell was arguably an even better coach than Johnson and even 1985-1989 with 3 national championships in that time his win percentage wasn't that high.

The idea that Klieman, Bohl, and Houston are the top 3 coaches in the subdivision all time is a really, really hard sell, but not when you look only at championships and records.

BTW, it's not just me saying this. Klieman himself has remarked on this subject.


You are the first person I ever heard mention Bohl, Klieman or Houston as the top 3 coaches in the subdivision all time. Bohl even had a losing season prior to the 2010 playoff season.

Needing more quality teams and saying FCS is down, is 2 different things. Klieman said it was a blow, but didn't say FCS was down.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:55 pm

Pwns wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
NDSU started winning championships when Klieman joined in 2011 and improved on the defensive side of the ball. It took Bohl several years at NDSU to get them to where they were in 2011. Bohl was the great recruiter, and Klieman the defensive coach that got them there. Of the coaches mentioned above, how many had great success at the next level? Tressel? I agree that the CAA is down compared to it's little streak before EWU and NDSU came along. 2016 & 17 JMU could have won or completed with any CAA champ in the last 20 years.


Paul Johnson brought Navy out of irrelevancy and has won an ACC Championship and an Orange Bowl at Tech where it isn't easy to win. He's arguably a better coach than Bohl is. Most of the rest other than Tressel were at their last coaching stops before retirement. Neither Johnson nor Tressel have the same winning percentage in IAA as NDSU 2011-2018 or JMU 2016-2018. Erk Russell was arguably an even better coach than Johnson and even 1985-1989 with 3 national championships in that time his win percentage wasn't that high.

The idea that Klieman, Bohl, and Houston are the top 3 coaches in the subdivision all time is a really, really hard sell, but not when you look only at championships and records.

BTW, it's not just me saying this. Klieman himself has remarked on this subject.


Read the last paragraph.
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:36 pm

93henfan wrote:
kalm wrote:

LIke I said, it's all perspective. You've provided very little to prove your point.


No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.


Using Sagarin to compare decades and not cherry pick years.

From 2000-2009 - Average position compared to all of Division 1
Montana 76.70
App St 89.20
Nova 99.50
UNI 100.30
Delaware 103.40
Umass 104.40
JMU 106.40
Furman 107.80
GSU 109.50
Richmond 109.90


2010-2018
NDSU 38.89
UNI 87.33
SDSU 88.33
GSU 93.25 (4 years)
EWU 93.44
JMU 99.44
Ill St 102.67
SHSU 104.67
JSU 109.56
YSU 109.67
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:14 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:
93henfan wrote:
No, it's more than perspective.

Here are the final rankings in D1 of the top 5 FCS/I-AA teams by year in Sagarin:

2018: 31, 58, 80, 83, 85 (avg 67.4)

Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)

So even with NDSU figured in, current FCS is decidedly weaker. Take away NDSU and it's WAY weaker.


Using Sagarin to compare decades and not cherry pick years.

From 2000-2009 - Average position compared to all of Division 1
Montana 76.70
App St 89.20
Nova 99.50
UNI 100.30
Delaware 103.40
Umass 104.40
JMU 106.40
Furman 107.80
GSU 109.50
Richmond 109.90


2010-2018
NDSU 38.89
UNI 87.33
SDSU 88.33
GSU 93.25 (4 years)
EWU 93.44
JMU 99.44
Ill St 102.67
SHSU 104.67
JSU 109.56
YSU 109.67


Ouch!

:lol:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:05 pm

Averaging single teams over a decade is junk statistics, because teams have ups and downs. Taking the best five of the subdivision, as I did, gives a much more accurate read on how the strength of the subdivision is in certain years.

Even with NDSU figured in, FCS this year is decidedly weaker than most years in the past decade, indicating a clear dropoff in the subdivision.

I stand by my point, as it's very clearly demonstrated in the statistics I presented.

But you don't even need a statistical analysis to see how bad the subdivision is right now. It's NDSU and some very bad teams. NDSU, barring a key injury at a skill position, is going to cakewalk through this field. Again. Be honest with yourselves. :nod:

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:26 am

93henfan wrote:Averaging single teams over a decade is junk statistics, because teams have ups and downs. Taking the best five of the subdivision, as I did, gives a much more accurate read on how the strength of the subdivision is in certain years.

Even with NDSU figured in, FCS this year is decidedly weaker than most years in the past decade, indicating a clear dropoff in the subdivision.

I stand by my point, as it's very clearly demonstrated in the statistics I presented.

But you don't even need a statistical analysis to see how bad the subdivision is right now. It's NDSU and some very bad teams. NDSU, barring a key injury at a skill position, is going to cakewalk through this field. Again. Be honest with yourselves. :nod:


Last 5 years of last decade
2010: 52, 57, 58, 72, 75 (62.8)
2009: 30, 49, 57, 60, 76 (54.4)
2008: 41, 45, 62, 63, 69 (56.0)
2007: 44, 62, 67, 71, 73 (63.4)
2006: 53, 57, 59, 70, 71 (62.0)


I see no evidence of the FCS being down. Just a few teams being down from the previous decade.

2014 was the best year of the decade so far

2014 - 32,41,55,67,68 = 52.6

2016 - 33,44,54,67,82 = 56
2017 - 32,44,63,78,80 = 59.4

2018 Updated 24,58,74,75,96 = 65.4
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:16 am

93henfan wrote:Averaging single teams over a decade is junk statistics, because teams have ups and downs. Taking the best five of the subdivision, as I did, gives a much more accurate read on how the strength of the subdivision is in certain years.

Even with NDSU figured in, FCS this year is decidedly weaker than most years in the past decade, indicating a clear dropoff in the subdivision.

I stand by my point, as it's very clearly demonstrated in the statistics I presented.

But you don't even need a statistical analysis to see how bad the subdivision is right now. It's NDSU and some very bad teams. NDSU, barring a key injury at a skill position, is going to cakewalk through this field. Again. Be honest with yourselves. :nod:


"Last five years of last decade".


Averaging single teams over a decade is junk statistics, because teams have ups and downs.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:30 am

So Kalm clearly has nothing to add. He apparently can't see the obvious flaw in averaging one team's stats over a decade versus simply looking at the best five the FCS has to offer at any given time. I can't help make up for the lack of a quality mathematics education. I guess I've always just sort of been naturally really good at math, logic, and supporting an argument.

I do appreciate Gil making a flailing attempt to put some statistics together, but my point is only reinforced by everything that he's offered in his last few posts.

NDSU is carrying the weight for any credibility that can be assigned to FCS right now. The subdivision is really just NDSU and a bunch of bad teams right now. You take away NDSU from the above stats and FCS is just awful.

Thanks for validating everything I've said about NDSU and the significantly diminished FCS around them.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:26 am

93henfan wrote:So Kalm clearly has nothing to add. He apparently can't see the obvious flaw in averaging one team's stats over a decade versus simply looking at the best five the FCS has to offer at any given time. I can't help make up for the lack of a quality mathematics education. I guess I've always just sort of been naturally really good at math, logic, and supporting an argument.

I do appreciate Gil making a flailing attempt to put some statistics together, but my point is only reinforced by everything that he's offered in his last few posts.

NDSU is carrying the weight for any credibility that can be assigned to FCS right now. The subdivision is really just NDSU and a bunch of bad teams right now. You take away NDSU from the above stats and FCS is just awful.

Thanks for validating everything I've said about NDSU and the significantly diminished FCS around them.


Kind of like App St during the time frame you posted. :)
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:21 am

Gil Dobie wrote:
93henfan wrote:So Kalm clearly has nothing to add. He apparently can't see the obvious flaw in averaging one team's stats over a decade versus simply looking at the best five the FCS has to offer at any given time. I can't help make up for the lack of a quality mathematics education. I guess I've always just sort of been naturally really good at math, logic, and supporting an argument.

I do appreciate Gil making a flailing attempt to put some statistics together, but my point is only reinforced by everything that he's offered in his last few posts.

NDSU is carrying the weight for any credibility that can be assigned to FCS right now. The subdivision is really just NDSU and a bunch of bad teams right now. You take away NDSU from the above stats and FCS is just awful.

Thanks for validating everything I've said about NDSU and the significantly diminished FCS around them.


Kind of like App St during the time frame you posted. :)



Nope. Go five deep. The fifth best FCS teams posted above during App's run was generally in the low 70s. The fifth best team this year is 96th. That's a clear indictment of the recent dropoff in FCS quality, and that's a HUGE drop.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:30 am

93henfan wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
Kind of like App St during the time frame you posted. :)



Nope. Go five deep. The fifth best FCS teams posted above during App's run was generally in the low 70s. The fifth best team this year is 96th. That's a clear indictment of the recent dropoff in FCS quality, and that's a HUGE drop.


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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby kalm » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:34 am

93henfan wrote:So Kalm clearly has nothing to add. He apparently can't see the obvious flaw in averaging one team's stats over a decade versus simply looking at the best five the FCS has to offer at any given time. I can't help make up for the lack of a quality mathematics education. I guess I've always just sort of been naturally really good at math, logic, and supporting an argument.

I do appreciate Gil making a flailing attempt to put some statistics together, but my point is only reinforced by everything that he's offered in his last few posts.

NDSU is carrying the weight for any credibility that can be assigned to FCS right now. The subdivision is really just NDSU and a bunch of bad teams right now. You take away NDSU from the above stats and FCS is just awful.

Thanks for validating everything I've said about NDSU and the significantly diminished FCS around them.


Is "bad" a math or logic term? :lol:
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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:46 am

Concessions acknowledged.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby Gil Dobie » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:50 am

93henfan wrote:Concessions acknowledged.


We are not getting anywhere towards changing anyone's mind.

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Re: Is FCS (Beside NDSU) Really This Bad?

Postby 93henfan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:53 am

Gil Dobie wrote:We are not getting anywhere towards changing anyone's mind.


That doesn't concern me. I can only lead a horse to water.

The numbers speak for themselves.


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