JohnStOnge wrote:Winterborn wrote:If the polls going into the election were wrong, why should anybody believe the exit polls?
And I disagree on his wining was based off “xenophobia”. Yes, for a small majority of people on both sides of the isle it was, but it is just what gets published as it is a good narrative to sell newspapers. It was people seeing that the status quo under Obama (and that would more than likely continue or get worse under Hillary) was not going to continue working and that a change was needed. I have friends that own small business and they are doing much better now and have greater hope to stay in business then they had through the previous administration. The policies in place by the previous administration were not small business friendly. Which is reflected in the current small business optimism index being the highest since Reagan was president. People vote based on their wallets and paychecks.
You may have not seen me write on the topic of the polls before but the polls for the 2016 election were not "wrong." What they indicated is that Clinton would win the popular vote but the electoral college was too close to call. The RealClearPolitics average of polls on the overall vote on election eve estimated Clinton by 3.3 percentage points and she won the overall vote by 2.1 percentage points.
With respect to the electoral college: The election eve RealClearPolitics Electoral Map is still up at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html. It has neither candidate with the necessary 270 electoral votes needed to win. It's got 15 jurisdictions (13 whole states plus the two Maine jurisdictions) as toss ups. Note the blue and red shading. There are 39 jurisdictions on the map whereby the information was sufficient to make some kind of call. In 38 of 39 cases the candidate indicated as favored in the State won it. The only exception was Wisconsin. But Wisconsin was at the lowest level of confidence with respect to the call (Leans). I don't think being right in 38 of 39 cases is bad.
You may not have seen it before but this is not something I am just saying now. I posted on this board on election eve that the polls did not provide sufficient evidence to say Clinton was going to win. The problem wasn't the polls. It was pundits who, I think, just couldn't believe enough people would vote for somebody like Trump to allow him to win.
The premise that we shouldn't believe the polls because they were "wrong" for the 2016 election is a false one. Polls always have some error. And that's understood. But the polls were not wildly off for the 2016 Presidential election. They suggested Clinton would get more votes and she got more votes.
And I guarantee you that Republican political professionals are not dismissing polls. They are using them. They are doing their own.
It's not that NOBODY who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Trump. In Michigan, for instance, 52% of exit poll respondents said the economy was the most important issue and 43% of those who said that voted for Trump. So a lot of people who thought it was the most important issue voted for Trump. But 51% said they voted for Clinton. The sample size was 2812; which means it's virtually certain that most of the people who voted in that State who thought the economy was the most important issue voted for Clinton than for Trump.
Voting by people who thought the economy was the most important issue was a net negative for Trump. There is no reasonable doubt about that.
Meanwhile White Evangelical Christian respondents voted for Trump over Clinton by 81% to 14%. It's unfortunate that the exit polling didn't ask questions about things like abortion, homosexual marriage, etc. But White Evangelical Christians didn't vote by that overwhelming majority for Trump because of the economy. I think we all know that if we're honest with ourselves.
I know you can’t help it, and it’s somewhat relevant, but can we not have every thread became another one of your diatribes against Trump, his supporters and your poll analysis?
We all know your position. Not every thread needs to become a dissertation on the 2016 election.
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