I-AA Polls

Football Championship Subdivision discussions
User avatar
BDKJMU
Level5
Level5
Posts: 27897
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:59 am
I am a fan of: JMU
A.K.A.: BDKJMU
Location: Philly Burbs

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
In the ranking composite at https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm Team A is ranked 14th and Team B is ranked 18th. I know people can find individual systems that go into that composite that have weird outcomes. But overall I view it as the most credible ranking I know of. It would be more credible if they left human polls out of it. But the number of human polls involved is small enough to keep them from compromising the results too much.
Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.
No more of a turd than the STATS and Coaches' Polls. They're pretty much all turds. AGS might be the only no non turd..
..peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..
..But you have to go home now. We have to have peace…
..I know how you feel, but go home, and go home in peace.
JMU Football: 2022 & 2023 Sun Belt East Champions.
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
In the ranking composite at https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm Team A is ranked 14th and Team B is ranked 18th. I know people can find individual systems that go into that composite that have weird outcomes. But overall I view it as the most credible ranking I know of. It would be more credible if they left human polls out of it. But the number of human polls involved is small enough to keep them from compromising the results too much.
Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.
Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW, have you guys noticed that North Dakota State's defense has given up only 159 yards and 6.2 yards per game on defense? I know that their schedule so far hasn't been filled with the best of offenses but they did also hold Eastern Washington to 204 total yards, 11 first downs, and 13 points.

This appears to be a really dominant defense. I think that last year they slipped a little on defense. They were still very good; but just a little bit down. It looks to me like they may be back in a big way.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
Gil Dobie
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 30939
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:45 pm
I am a fan of: Norse Dakota State
Location: Historic Leduc Estate

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW, have you guys noticed that North Dakota State's defense has given up only 159 yards and 6.2 yards per game on defense? I know that their schedule so far hasn't been filled with the best of offenses but they did also hold Eastern Washington to 204 total yards, 11 first downs, and 13 points.

This appears to be a really dominant defense. I think that last year they slipped a little on defense. They were still very good; but just a little bit down. It looks to me like they may be back in a big way.
It helps to have the best d-line player and best linebacker back from 2 years ago, although each played part of last season. Then we go a lose the best pass rusher before the season started.
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.
Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.
Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.
Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.
I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.
I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.
Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.
Image
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 59305
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.
I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.
Should polls just reflect single game performances or where teams finish the season?
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.
Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.
What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
dal4018
Level5
Level5
Posts: 10239
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:17 pm
I am a fan of: South Carolina St
A.K.A.: SC State

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by dal4018 »

89Hen wrote:After running the AGS Poll for so many years I've been completely uninterested in the I-AA polls the last several years. I'm sure it has something to do with with the Hens being absent, but it's really a case of being burnt out listening to the dummies who vote and don't really put in the time.

That said, here is the most recent STATS Poll.

1 James Madison (160) 5-0 4192 1
2 North Dakota State (8) 5-0 4038 2
3 Jacksonville State 4-1 3718 3
4 South Dakota 5-0 3629 4
5 Wofford 5-0 3484 5
6 Central Arkansas 4-1 3325 6
7 South Dakota State 4-1 3054 9
8 Youngstown State 3-2 2990 10
9 Sam Houston State 4-1 2924 11
10 Eastern Washington 4-2 2730 13
11 Villanova 4-2 2329 12
12 New Hampshire 4-1 2156 14
13 Richmond 3-2 2012 19
14 Western Illinois 4-1 1967 7
15 North Carolina A&T 6-0 1803 15
16 Elon 5-1 1696 8
17 Illinois State 4-1 1472 21
18 Weber State 4-1 1439 24
19 Samford 4-2 1251 NR
20 Grambling State 5-1 1038 23
21 Western Carolina 4-2 636 22
22 McNeese 5-1 592 16
23 Citadel 3-2 498 NR
24 Montana 4-2 251 20
25 North Carolina Central 4-1 226 18
Others: Dartmouth (211) , Albany (199) , Northern Arizona (136) , Stony Brook (127) , Nicholls (104) , Delaware (81) , Tennessee State (74) , Monmouth (44) , Eastern Illinois (25) , Columbia (23) , Liberty (19) ,Charleston Southern (18) , UNI (16) , Kennesaw State (16) , Colgate (9) , UT Martin (8) , Princeton (7) , Duquesne (7) , Mercer (7) , Austin Peay (6) , Alcorn State (6) , Furman (3) , UC Davis (3) , Saint Francis U (1)
NCCU survives Gardner Webb 24-17!!!!
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

Just as a FYI I decided to compare predictions based on the AGS poll and Sagarin for games involving teams in the AGS top 25. There was only one disagreement. AGS poll favored New Hampshire and Sagarin favored Stony Brook. Stony Brook won.

Obviously that doesn't really show anything. I tentatively plan to continue doing it through the rest of the season. Not likely there will be enough disagreements between the two to allow for a "significant" difference.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.
What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.
:blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.
:blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:
As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
Ursus A. Horribilis
Maroon Supporter
Maroon Supporter
Posts: 21613
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:17 pm
I am a fan of: Montana Grizzlies
A.K.A.: Bill Brasky

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by Ursus A. Horribilis »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:
As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.
I think you decline a little bit with every post.
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:
As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.
You have declined a dozen plus times. :tothehand:
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.
You have declined a dozen plus times. :tothehand:
Fine. If you want to go on the premise that I've declined, I am not declining now. Pick one person from whatever the activity is that the GoHens site is doing as your champion. Maybe pick the one that's done the best so far this season. Provide their picks including who will win each game and how much they will win by in time for me to see it and keep track of it along with the Sagarin picks prior to when the games start. I would be happy to do that.

I do disagree with the idea that only picking the top 25 matters if that's what's going on at the GoHens site. But if that's what they do that's what's available for comparison.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
89Hen
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 39223
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by 89Hen »

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: You have declined a dozen plus times. :tothehand:
Fine. If you want to go on the premise that I've declined, I am not declining now. Pick one person from whatever the activity is that the GoHens site is doing as your champion. Maybe pick the one that's done the best so far this season. Provide their picks including who will win each game and how much they will win by in time for me to see it and keep track of it along with the Sagarin picks prior to when the games start. I would be happy to do that.

I do disagree with the idea that only picking the top 25 matters if that's what's going on at the GoHens site. But if that's what they do that's what's available for comparison.
So you want to use Massey, which is a conglomerate of polls, but you want me to pick one human? John, go pound sand.
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Fine. If you want to go on the premise that I've declined, I am not declining now. Pick one person from whatever the activity is that the GoHens site is doing as your champion. Maybe pick the one that's done the best so far this season. Provide their picks including who will win each game and how much they will win by in time for me to see it and keep track of it along with the Sagarin picks prior to when the games start. I would be happy to do that.

I do disagree with the idea that only picking the top 25 matters if that's what's going on at the GoHens site. But if that's what they do that's what's available for comparison.
So you want to use Massey, which is a conglomerate of polls, but you want me to pick one human? John, go pound sand.
No, I said I'd use Sagarin. That's just because it's easy to access, I think it's about as good as any of the better ones, and it provides a point spread. Having a point spread helps because there's a good chance that just having won/loss is not going to yield a "statistically significant" difference. For instance I compared AGS to Sagarin last week in picking games involving AGS top 25 teams and they only disagreed on one game (AGS had New Hampshire ranked higher and Sagarin had Stony Brook ranked higher). This week there were NO disagreements in those terms. Sagarin does have Delaware as a narrow favorite because Delaware is playing at home and Sagarin has a home advantage thing. But both the AGS poll and the Sagarin system have Villanova ranked slightly higher.

Anyway I don't think it would be "fair" to call that a disagreement because the poll doesn't account for who is playing at home. So I've now got 37 games over two weeks with only 1 disagreement in terms of which team in each pair is higher ranked. Not likely to end up with enough for a "significant" difference at that rate.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: I-AA Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

89Hen wrote: So you want to use Massey, which is a conglomerate of polls, but you want me to pick one human? John, go pound sand.
Oh...the Massey conglomerate isn't all power ratings. There are some human polls in there. It's mostly power ratings so you could probably go ahead and accept the little bit of influence of the human polls. And you could compare the composite to the average of people at GoHens. But you'd have the same problem I mentioned in my last poll where you're probably going to have a low percentage of disagreements.

If you add predicting point spreads you get a lot more power.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
Gil Dobie
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 30939
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:45 pm
I am a fan of: Norse Dakota State
Location: Historic Leduc Estate

Bison make 100th straight appearance in FCS Top 25

Post by Gil Dobie »

Milestone for NDSU this week.

Link

On Monday, the nation's No. 2-ranked team made its 100th straight appearance in the STATS FCS Top 25 - the active high in the national media poll. The Bison trailed only top-ranked James Madison, the defending FCS champion, which also improved to 7-0 this past Saturday.
Image
User avatar
Wildcat Ryan
Level3
Level3
Posts: 2798
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2008 6:59 pm
I am a fan of: WEBER STATE
A.K.A.: WILDCAT, WILDCATFAN

Re: Bison make 100th straight appearance in FCS Top 25

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

Gil Dobie wrote:Milestone for NDSU this week.

Link

On Monday, the nation's No. 2-ranked team made its 100th straight appearance in the STATS FCS Top 25 - the active high in the national media poll. The Bison trailed only top-ranked James Madison, the defending FCS champion, which also improved to 7-0 this past Saturday.

Impressive :thumb:

For Weber just staying in the top 25 for one whole season is a milestone.
Image
Post Reply