I-AA Game of the Week - WEEK THIRTEEN

[kalm]

It's admittedly a weird year where there's very few quality wins and h2h matchups between the at large hopefuls. Last year, two 6-win teams got in and UIW and Lamar were surprises. That might become a trend with the Southland and OVC improving a little while the SoCon continues to be down a little. Hence the reach. No one saw those Southland teams getting in.

But I'm ok with new blood getting in. The opening Saturday with 8 games all televised is like Christmas.

I like football.

Field of 128

Yep...and it gets whittled down to 24.

(should be 32)

[UNI88]

You're really reaching on some of these to make it look like there's a lot on the line this week. I stand by my statement of the worst last week I can remember.

Thank you Eeyore. There might not be a ton on the line but there are definitely some interesting games for people who really like FCS football.

[89Hen]

Last year, two 6-win teams got in and UIW and Lamar were surprises. That might become a trend with the Southland and OVC improving a little while the SoCon continues to be down a little. Hence the reach. No one saw those Southland teams getting in.

Maybe no one in your house.

McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner

Unless Incarnate Word loses to North Alabama they will be in before McNeese or Lamar.

Southland
AQ - Nicholls State
AL - Incarnate Word*
AL - Lamar*

* Denotes last 5 in.

[89Hen]

You're really reaching on some of these to make it look like there's a lot on the line this week. I stand by my statement of the worst last week I can remember.

Thank you Eeyore. There might not be a ton on the line but there are definitely some interesting games for people who really like FCS football.

Prove me wrong. Find me another year with as little on the line in the final week.

[kalm]

Last year, two 6-win teams got in and UIW and Lamar were surprises. That might become a trend with the Southland and OVC improving a little while the SoCon continues to be down a little. Hence the reach. No one saw those Southland teams getting in.

Maybe no one in your house.

McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner

Unless Incarnate Word loses to North Alabama they will be in before McNeese or Lamar.

Southland
AQ - Nicholls State
AL - Incarnate Word*
AL - Lamar*

* Denotes last 5 in.

Damn...I need to give more credit.

[89Hen]

And BTW....

This is shaping up to be a shit show. Unless you limit the MVFC to two teams (no way can you do that), we very well may have a 5 loss team in the field.

I miss plenty, but I DO follow I-AA football, even though 88 and others would like you to believe I don't. I actually do not follow as closely as when I ran the poll at AGS (obviously) but my head is still 75% in the game.

[UNI88]

Thank you Eeyore. There might not be a ton on the line but there are definitely some interesting games for people who really like FCS football.

Prove me wrong. Find me another year with as little on the line in the final week.

You might be right but I don't care. I enjoy FCS football regardless so I don't need to prove you wrong. The brawl has seeding implications, NDSU is a longshot play-in game for SIU, SELA/Nicholls is probably a play-in game as well. UNI is completely beat up on the offensive side of the ball and could lose to Western.

[89Hen]

You might be right but I don't care. I enjoy FCS football regardless so I don't need to prove you wrong. The brawl has seeding implications, NDSU is a longshot play-in game for SIU, SELA/Nicholls is probably a play-in game as well. UNI is completely beat up on the offensive side of the ball and could lose to Western.

Yet, you keep trying. If you don't care what I say then STFU.

[Ivytalk]

You stand by every statement that you make.

Who doesn't?

Some stand more firmly than others.

[89Hen]

Who doesn't?

Some stand more firmly than others.

I take that as a compliment.

[Ivytalk]

Some stand more firmly than others.

I take that as a compliment.

You and JoltinJoe are in a class by yourselves.

[UNI88]

I take that as a compliment.

You and JoltinJoe are in a class by yourselves.

Not quite, JSO is in that class as well.

[89Hen]

Classiest guys around.

[catbooster]

Please provide the list. I only see... UND/Nicholls and SIU with a miracle win (as I mentioned).

Win and in (next opponent, SoS, best wins (.500 or better teams in Massey Top 60, or FBS)

Albany 7-4 @ 5-6 Stony Brook / 3 / UNH, Towson
Towson 7-4 vs 4-6 Elon / 12 / Maine, Citadel
Furman VS Point (DII) / 41 / Chattahooga
Tennessee Martin 7-4 @ 5-5 Kentucky / 47 /
UNI 7-4 VS 1-10 WIU / 4 / Illinois State
SIU 7-4 VS 11-0 NDSU / 28 / UTM, UMASS.
Nicholls 7-4 @ 7-3 SELA / 48 / McNeese, UCA,
SELA 7-3 VS Nicholls / 53 / Central Arkansas



Seventeen locks right now but assuming Furman beats Point that's 18 locks. Assuming UT Martin loses to Kentucky, they are out. SELA VS NIcholls adds one to the locks, making it 19. UNI beating WIU is also a relatively safe bet so call it 20 locks.

Remaining Bubble for four spots based on probable outcomes from this week's games:

KSU 10-2 (close to being a lock but there's precedent for them being not).
SIU 7-5 (No bad losses, bad how much does the committee value the UMASS win?)
Maine 7-5 (Would close on a 5 game win streak, strong SoS, no. bad losses)
The Citadel (FBS win better than UMASS but bad loss to VMI)
Loser of SELA-NIcholls 7-4 or 7-5 (lack of OOC quality wins JSU might be viewed as one for SELA)
McNeese 7-5 (Lost h2h to Nicholls but beat SELA and has a slightly better SoS than both)
UND 7-4 (Solid SoS, but loss to EWU. How much does the committee value the Davis and SHSU wins?)
EWU 7-5 (4 game win streak, highest SoS of this group, bad loss to Idaho, only decent win UND)

Any upsets in the win and in group muddy things further but this group may have an upset or two as well

The committee would probably value the win over MSU more than ether of those you list for UND

One of the EWU wins is DII. I know you asked Kent Haslam and he said DII wins can be considered, but I think it still hurts. I wonder if the committee members from out east, where they have an easier time avoiding DII games in their schedule, view DII differently than AD's from out west.

[UNI88]

Classiest guys around.

[89Hen]

That actually looks like the three of us. Scary.

[kalm]

Win and in (next opponent, SoS, best wins (.500 or better teams in Massey Top 60, or FBS)

Albany 7-4 @ 5-6 Stony Brook / 3 / UNH, Towson
Towson 7-4 vs 4-6 Elon / 12 / Maine, Citadel
Furman VS Point (DII) / 41 / Chattahooga
Tennessee Martin 7-4 @ 5-5 Kentucky / 47 /
UNI 7-4 VS 1-10 WIU / 4 / Illinois State
SIU 7-4 VS 11-0 NDSU / 28 / UTM, UMASS.
Nicholls 7-4 @ 7-3 SELA / 48 / McNeese, UCA,
SELA 7-3 VS Nicholls / 53 / Central Arkansas



Seventeen locks right now but assuming Furman beats Point that's 18 locks. Assuming UT Martin loses to Kentucky, they are out. SELA VS NIcholls adds one to the locks, making it 19. UNI beating WIU is also a relatively safe bet so call it 20 locks.

Remaining Bubble for four spots based on probable outcomes from this week's games:

KSU 10-2 (close to being a lock but there's precedent for them being not).
SIU 7-5 (No bad losses, bad how much does the committee value the UMASS win?)
Maine 7-5 (Would close on a 5 game win streak, strong SoS, no. bad losses)
The Citadel (FBS win better than UMASS but bad loss to VMI)
Loser of SELA-NIcholls 7-4 or 7-5 (lack of OOC quality wins JSU might be viewed as one for SELA)
McNeese 7-5 (Lost h2h to Nicholls but beat SELA and has a slightly better SoS than both)
UND 7-4 (Solid SoS, but loss to EWU. How much does the committee value the Davis and SHSU wins?)
EWU 7-5 (4 game win streak, highest SoS of this group, bad loss to Idaho, only decent win UND)

Any upsets in the win and in group muddy things further but this group may have an upset or two as well

The committee would probably value the win over MSU more than ether of those you list for UND

One of the EWU wins is DII. I know you asked Kent Haslam and he said DII wins can be considered, but I think it still hurts. I wonder if the committee members from out east, where they have an easier time avoiding DII games in their schedule, view DII differently than AD's from out west.

As they should. MSU is a good win and my comments are more directed towards comparing UND's resume to other bubble teams than EWU. I would consider the wins against Davis and SHSU helpful in comparison to a 7-5 Nicholls or 7-4 SELA for example. Or take your pick of several potential 7-5 or 8-4 teams from other conferences who lack equal quality wins. UND getting in might actually raise EWU's profile but we'd need a ton of other things to break our way like they did in 2017 when we still weren't even one of the first four out.

Regarding DII, you could be right but I'd like to think they changed the wording of the guidelines for a reason. Again, to use the EWU-UND example because I'm more familiar with it, UND gets credit for beating Drake who is 339 in Massey while EWU doesn't for beating Lindenwood who is 239, won their conference, and is in the DII playoffs?

[89Hen]

This was last year's final week of games in the poll (bold are playoff teams)....

Montana State (6-4) @ Montana (6-4)... winner in, loser out
Weber State (8-2) @ Idaho State (6-4)... WSU was in anyway but ISU out with the loss.
Elon (6-3) @ Maine (7-3)... Maine maybe still in with a loss, but not a seed and Elon out with the loss.
James Madison (7-3) @ Towson (7-3)... game between two teams in.
Indiana State (6-4) @ Western Illinois (5-5)... ISU should have probably been in with the win.
Duquesne (4-1 NEC) @ Central Connecticut (4-1 NEC)... This was the NEC championship game.
Jacksonville State (8-2) @ Kennesaw State (9-1)... Both teams in vying for seed.
Lamar (6-4) @ McNeese State (6-4)... winner in, loser out

The only one that ended up not having playoff implications was Indiana State @ WIU and the Sycamores was on the committee First 3 out list.

[SuperHornet]

In the Sky, there's a TON on the line...at least in terms of seeding. Any of this year's Big Three could drop out of the seeding with a loss, and at least two of them are playing rivalry games, which are notoriously tricky. And even if all three win, the size of victory is likely to affect seeding. And if NDSU stumbles against SIU, that could send earthquakes through the bracket....

[89Hen]

If, if, if, if

[JohnStOnge]

Well, looks like I got here too late to vote. But Nicholls State at Southeastern Louisiana is for the Southland automatic bid. Winner gets it.

[CID1990]

It WAS going to be Whofferd - El Cid but well, sh1t


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