Playoff Field
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Playoff Field
This is shaping up to be a shit show. Unless you limit the MVFC to two teams (no way can you do that), we very well may have a 5 loss team in the field.
I think this is who is most likely already in...
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (9-1)
CAA (4)
Maine (7-3) v Elon (6-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Delaware (7-3)
JMU (7-3) v Towson (7-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Stony Brook (7-3)
MEAC (1)
Assuming FAMU beats Bethune this week, NCAT (8-2) will get a bid as #2 in conference
MVFC (2)
NDSU (10-0)
SDSU (7-2)
NEC (1)
Too lazy to see who will win this one
OVC (2)
Jacksonville State (8-2)
SEMO (7-3)
Patriot (1)
Colgate (9-0)
Pioneer (1)
San Diego
Southern (2)
ETSU (8-2)
Wofford (7-3)
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner in
So that leaves three spots. Like I said, no way the MVFC only gets two, so that means at least one of: UNI (5-5), WIU (5-5) or Indiana St (6-4) gets in. IF Idaho St (6-4) beats Weber, they're in. Furman with a win over Mercer most likely makes it. Not sure I'm really seeing any other bubble teams, did I miss anyone?
I think this is who is most likely already in...
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (9-1)
CAA (4)
Maine (7-3) v Elon (6-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Delaware (7-3)
JMU (7-3) v Towson (7-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Stony Brook (7-3)
MEAC (1)
Assuming FAMU beats Bethune this week, NCAT (8-2) will get a bid as #2 in conference
MVFC (2)
NDSU (10-0)
SDSU (7-2)
NEC (1)
Too lazy to see who will win this one
OVC (2)
Jacksonville State (8-2)
SEMO (7-3)
Patriot (1)
Colgate (9-0)
Pioneer (1)
San Diego
Southern (2)
ETSU (8-2)
Wofford (7-3)
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner in
So that leaves three spots. Like I said, no way the MVFC only gets two, so that means at least one of: UNI (5-5), WIU (5-5) or Indiana St (6-4) gets in. IF Idaho St (6-4) beats Weber, they're in. Furman with a win over Mercer most likely makes it. Not sure I'm really seeing any other bubble teams, did I miss anyone?
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Re: Playoff Field
UND would be 7-4 with a win over NAU, and won the head-to-head against Montana.
Indiana St needs to win to get to 6 DI wins.
Indiana St needs to win to get to 6 DI wins.
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Re: Playoff Field
I don't trust the committee, so....89Hen wrote:This is shaping up to be a shit show. Unless you limit the MVFC to two teams (no way can you do that), we very well may have a 5 loss team in the field.
I think this is who is most likely already in...
Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (9-1)
CAA (4)
Maine (7-3) v Elon (6-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Delaware (7-3)
JMU (7-3) v Towson (7-3) winner lock, loser bubble
Stony Brook (7-3)
MEAC (1)
Assuming FAMU beats Bethune this week, NCAT (8-2) will get a bid as #2 in conference
MVFC (2)
NDSU (10-0)
SDSU (7-2)
NEC (1)
Too lazy to see who will win this one
OVC (2)
Jacksonville State (8-2)
SEMO (7-3)
Patriot (1)
Colgate (9-0)
Pioneer (1)
San Diego
Southern (2)
ETSU (8-2)
Wofford (7-3)
Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner in
So that leaves three spots. Like I said, no way the MVFC only gets two, so that means at least one of: UNI (5-5), WIU (5-5) or Indiana St (6-4) gets in. IF Idaho St (6-4) beats Weber, they're in. Furman with a win over Mercer most likely makes it. Not sure I'm really seeing any other bubble teams, did I miss anyone?
ICW - AQ if Nicholls loses. Still slightly on the bubble with no bad losses, high SoS of 34 (for a SLC and compared to other bubble teams in SLC, OVC, Monmouth) and wins over McNeese, SHSU, UCA, and ACU. Not that the latter are quality wins but UCA, McNeese, and SHSU might be shiny objects for the committee. They also have a scheduled game against Iowa State, the opening week of the playoffs which they can back out of.
Monmouth - I know, but they got in last year...
ACU - because McNeese and Lamar and they beat Nicholls
UND - at 7-4 gets them ahead of Montana with h2h blowout. Plus a win over SHSU
At-large locks:
CAA- 5
BSC - 2
MVFC - 1
Win and in: ETSU, ISUo, SEMO, ISUb, Montana State
- 89Hen
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Re: Playoff Field
I agree it doesn't hurt to put them on the bubble watch, but I'm fairly certain they don't have a win over a winning team.kalm wrote:Monmouth - I know, but they got in last year...
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Re: Playoff Field
They can be on the bubble too then.Gil Dobie wrote:UND would be 7-4 with a win over NAU, and won the head-to-head against Montana.
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Re: Playoff Field
Kennesaw gets a double-digit seed...or they WOULD if they seeded the entire field like the hoops tournament....
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Re: Playoff Field
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.89Hen wrote: Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
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Re: Playoff Field
Unless Incarnate Word loses to North Alabama they will be in before McNeese or Lamar. And if Nicholls State loses Incarnate Word is the Southland automatic bid.89Hen wrote: Southland (2)
Nicholls (7-3)
McNeese (6-4) v Lamar (6-4) winner
Incarnate Word can finish no worse than second in the Southland with 2 conference losses. The only way McNeese gets in is if the committee somehow decides to include three from the Southland and lets McNeese in by virtue of a quality win over Nicholls State. And I guess if Lamar wins they could let them in by virtue of a quality win over Incarnate Word.
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Re: Playoff Field
Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.Mvemjsunpx wrote:Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.89Hen wrote: Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
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Re: Playoff Field
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.89Hen wrote:Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
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Re: Playoff Field
I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.Mvemjsunpx wrote:But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.89Hen wrote: Nope. Winner is in because there aren't enough 8-3 teams to keep them out.
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Re: Playoff Field
so every loss is now considered a bad loss?Mvemjsunpx wrote:Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.89Hen wrote: Big Sky (4)
Weber State (8-2)
Eastern Washington (8-2)
UC Davis (8-2)
Montana (6-4) v MSU (6-4) winner in, loser out
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Re: Playoff Field
Furman?89Hen wrote:I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.Mvemjsunpx wrote:
But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
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Re: Playoff Field
Yes/NoAZGrizFan wrote:so every loss is now considered a bad loss?Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Montana needs a bit of help even if they do win. They have one barely good win (UNI) and 4 questionable/bad losses.
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Re: Playoff Field
Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.AZGrizFan wrote:Furman?89Hen wrote: I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.
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Re: Playoff Field
89Hen wrote:Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.AZGrizFan wrote:
Furman?
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Re: Playoff Field
Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.grizzaholic wrote:89Hen wrote: Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
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Re: Playoff Field
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.89Hen wrote:Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.AZGrizFan wrote:
Furman?
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Re: Playoff Field
Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.kalm wrote:6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.89Hen wrote: Yes. Why wouldn't they want Furman in the field? They used to be over 10k average attendance when they were regularly a playoff team in the 2000's. I still believe the committee does take into account who they want for marketing purposes.
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Re: Playoff Field
Correct, and I have NCAT in my field projection above.Gil Dobie wrote:Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.kalm wrote:
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
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Re: Playoff Field
TypoGil Dobie wrote:Don't know if it was a typo, but NCAT coulf finish 9-2 and 2nd in the MEAC if FAMU wins.kalm wrote:
6 win teams like Furman and ICW would fall behind 6 win UNI and WIU. Furman is closer thanks to a solid SOS. I think ICW is left out for an at-large. Montana would be behind UND and Nicholls based on H2H and Nicholls win against KU. Maybe ISUb too. SEMO shouldn’t but could slide in ahead at 8-3. Then there’s 89’s favorite...a 9-3 NCAT. That leaves a 7-4 Montana firmly on the bubble.
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Re: Playoff Field
I didn't know past accomplishments should dictate current seeding. I'll have to remember to use that.89Hen wrote:Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.grizzaholic wrote:
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Re: Playoff Field
Who is talking about seeds? If you don't think the committee chooses a team or two for the at-larges based on who the team is rather than just current season merit, you haven't been paying attention.grizzaholic wrote:I didn't know past accomplishments should dictate current seeding. I'll have to remember to use that.89Hen wrote: Yes, what part of that didn't you catch the first time? I'm sure the NCAA would like to try to rekindle something there.
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Re: Playoff Field
The NCAA doesn't select the teams, the playoff selection committee does. I really doubt the UCA or Bucknell athletic directors care one bit about whether the NCAA makes money off a home game in Missoula. Bid size matters for selecting home teams in unseeded games, of course (per the rules), but there's no reason to think it applies to selecting who gets in the field.89Hen wrote:I don't think so. NCAA likes to have Montana in the field and rightfully so. I'm sure they're itching to get Delaware and Furman in there too.Mvemjsunpx wrote: But there are enough potential 7-4 teams to keep them out, especially since the Griz didn't play an FBS.
If "the NCAA liking Montana in the field" was a real factor, the Griz would've gotten in last year.
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Re: Playoff Field
How is the committee going to treat the 3 MVFC teams that are 5-4 vs FCS
UNI, WIU and ISUB. Possibly 2 could finish 6-4 against FCS competition.
UNI, WIU and ISUB. Possibly 2 could finish 6-4 against FCS competition.