How Many Big Sky Seeds?

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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by kalm »

89Hen wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
NAU's only Big Sky wins were Weber St and 1-9 SUU.
I'm more about wins over quality teams than losses... as long as there aren't several of them. Everyone is allowed to lay an egg once a year.
Agreed. It depends on whether we're talking about what should happen or what we think the committee will do which is anyone's guess.

EWU, Weber, and SDSU have similar resume's regarding quality wins and SOS. EWU has the best margin of victory followed by SDSU, with Weber quite a ways behind. EWU also has the best signature win with Davis, Weber has the next best with EWU and SDSU has a 6-4 ISUb or Montana State. Weber also has the bad loss. Unless you're giving SDSU the benefit of the doubt with their cancelled game against a 6-3 Iowa State. I'm not saying they deserve for it to be assumed a loss but it at least should be a minor knock in the comparison. Weber can hang their hat on the h2h with EWU which is favored by the committee.

What it should be...and it's closest between Weber and EWU is:

2. EWU
3. Weber
4. SDSU

But we've seen the committee tend to favor lofty records from weak conference so KSU has a decent chance to sneak in their somewhere and yes Colgate has an equally good case except KSU's run to the quarters last year probably helps them over the hump. Both of their schedules are garbage.

5. Kennesaw
6. Davis
7. Colgate
8. Winner of JMU or Towson.

Who would the second CAA be and why? It won't be Maine since they avoided JMU, Elon and SBU plus losses to Yale and W&M. Perhaps Delaware with wins over Towson and Elon? SBU has only one quality win over UD.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote: I'm more about wins over quality teams than losses... as long as there aren't several of them. Everyone is allowed to lay an egg once a year.
Agreed. It depends on whether we're talking about what should happen or what we think the committee will do which is anyone's guess.

EWU, Weber, and SDSU have similar resume's regarding quality wins and SOS. EWU has the best margin of victory followed by SDSU, with Weber quite a ways behind. EWU also has the best signature win with Davis, Weber has the next best with EWU and SDSU has a 6-4 ISUb or Montana State. Weber also has the bad loss. Unless you're giving SDSU the benefit of the doubt with their cancelled game against a 6-3 Iowa State. I'm not saying they deserve for it to be assumed a loss but it at least should be a minor knock in the comparison. Weber can hang their hat on the h2h with EWU which is favored by the committee.

What it should be...and it's closest between Weber and EWU is:

2. EWU
3. Weber
4. SDSU

But we've seen the committee tend to favor lofty records from weak conference so KSU has a decent chance to sneak in their somewhere and yes Colgate has an equally good case except KSU's run to the quarters last year probably helps them over the hump. Both of their schedules are garbage.

5. Kennesaw
6. Davis
7. Colgate
8. Winner of JMU or Towson.

Who would the second CAA be and why? It won't be Maine since they avoided JMU, Elon and SBU plus losses to Yale and W&M. Perhaps Delaware with wins over Towson and Elon? SBU has only one quality win over UD.

Eastern was ranked #3 when Weber beat them. UC Davis was 4th when Eastern beat them. So technically Weber's win is the better win, especially considering Eastern beat Davis. Plus Weber has beaten 3 top 25 teams. The most top 25 wins in the Big Sky. If all three teams win out Weber deserves the highest seed, they have the best resume. Eastern winning and doing it in the fashion they are only helps make Weber's win over them that much more impressive.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Gil Dobie »

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote: I'm more about wins over quality teams than losses... as long as there aren't several of them. Everyone is allowed to lay an egg once a year.
Agreed. It depends on whether we're talking about what should happen or what we think the committee will do which is anyone's guess.

EWU, Weber, and SDSU have similar resume's regarding quality wins and SOS. EWU has the best margin of victory followed by SDSU, with Weber quite a ways behind. EWU also has the best signature win with Davis, Weber has the next best with EWU and SDSU has a 6-4 ISUb or Montana State. Weber also has the bad loss. Unless you're giving SDSU the benefit of the doubt with their cancelled game against a 6-3 Iowa State. I'm not saying they deserve for it to be assumed a loss but it at least should be a minor knock in the comparison. Weber can hang their hat on the h2h with EWU which is favored by the committee.

What it should be...and it's closest between Weber and EWU is:

2. EWU
3. Weber
4. SDSU

But we've seen the committee tend to favor lofty records from weak conference so KSU has a decent chance to sneak in their somewhere and yes Colgate has an equally good case except KSU's run to the quarters last year probably helps them over the hump. Both of their schedules are garbage.

5. Kennesaw
6. Davis
7. Colgate
8. Winner of JMU or Towson.

Who would the second CAA be and why? It won't be Maine since they avoided JMU, Elon and SBU plus losses to Yale and W&M. Perhaps Delaware with wins over Towson and Elon? SBU has only one quality win over UD.
If you are using bad losses for Maine, how come a bad loss doesn't matter for Weber St? Maine has a FBS win over a bad WKU team, and a win over Towson on the road. Both Weber St and EWU good wins were at home. William & Mary is 3-3 in the CAA, and not that bad of a loss. Plus Maine could end up being the CAA Autobid.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by ALPHAGRIZ1 »

I agree, Eastern shouldn't get a seed. You guys convinced me

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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by kalm »

Gil Dobie wrote:
kalm wrote:
Agreed. It depends on whether we're talking about what should happen or what we think the committee will do which is anyone's guess.

EWU, Weber, and SDSU have similar resume's regarding quality wins and SOS. EWU has the best margin of victory followed by SDSU, with Weber quite a ways behind. EWU also has the best signature win with Davis, Weber has the next best with EWU and SDSU has a 6-4 ISUb or Montana State. Weber also has the bad loss. Unless you're giving SDSU the benefit of the doubt with their cancelled game against a 6-3 Iowa State. I'm not saying they deserve for it to be assumed a loss but it at least should be a minor knock in the comparison. Weber can hang their hat on the h2h with EWU which is favored by the committee.

What it should be...and it's closest between Weber and EWU is:

2. EWU
3. Weber
4. SDSU

But we've seen the committee tend to favor lofty records from weak conference so KSU has a decent chance to sneak in their somewhere and yes Colgate has an equally good case except KSU's run to the quarters last year probably helps them over the hump. Both of their schedules are garbage.

5. Kennesaw
6. Davis
7. Colgate
8. Winner of JMU or Towson.

Who would the second CAA be and why? It won't be Maine since they avoided JMU, Elon and SBU plus losses to Yale and W&M. Perhaps Delaware with wins over Towson and Elon? SBU has only one quality win over UD.
If you are using bad losses for Maine, how come a bad loss doesn't matter for Weber St? Maine has a FBS win over a bad WKU team, and a win over Towson on the road. Both Weber St and EWU good wins were at home. William & Mary is 3-3 in the CAA, and not that bad of a loss. Plus Maine could end up being the CAA Autobid.
Weber’s bad loss IS considered when comparing them to EWU and SDSU (similar resume’s). Maine has two bad losses and 3 total. If Maine had two total losses they’d still be considered the same as Weber’s is.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Gil Dobie »

kalm wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
If you are using bad losses for Maine, how come a bad loss doesn't matter for Weber St? Maine has a FBS win over a bad WKU team, and a win over Towson on the road. Both Weber St and EWU good wins were at home. William & Mary is 3-3 in the CAA, and not that bad of a loss. Plus Maine could end up being the CAA Autobid.
Weber’s bad loss IS considered when comparing them to EWU and SDSU (similar resume’s). Maine has two bad losses and 3 total. If Maine had two total losses they’d still be considered the same as Weber’s is.
I'm thinking EWU has a better resume, losing at Weber St by 8, than Weber St has, losing at NAU. Maine, with a little help, can be a seed.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote:Agreed. It depends on whether we're talking about what should happen or what we think the committee will do which is anyone's guess.
:nod: :nod: :nod: :nod:
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by 89Hen »

kalm wrote:Who would the second CAA be and why? It won't be Maine since they avoided JMU, Elon and SBU plus losses to Yale and W&M. Perhaps Delaware with wins over Towson and Elon? SBU has only one quality win over UD.
That is tough to answer because nobody really separated themselves from the others and they all just beat each other. Maine also didn't play Delaware or Stony so they would only have wins over Towson and Elon (who would miss the playoffs at 6-4).
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by BlackFalkin »

Gil Dobie wrote:
kalm wrote:
Weber’s bad loss IS considered when comparing them to EWU and SDSU (similar resume’s). Maine has two bad losses and 3 total. If Maine had two total losses they’d still be considered the same as Weber’s is.
I'm thinking EWU has a better resume, losing at Weber St by 8, than Weber St has, losing at NAU. Maine, with a little help, can be a seed.
EWU definitely has the better resume. IMO Weber State’s loss to unranked NAU exposes them, especially when you consider EWU backup QB EB3 was starting only his 2nd game, on the road after Gage Gubrud’s season ending injury. If that game is played this weekend EWU smokes Weber State.

-EWU’s FCS loss was to a ranked Weber St.
-Weber’s FCS loss was to unranked NAU
-Davis’ FCS loss was to a ranked EWU
——————————-
-EWU’s signature win is top 5 ranked Davis
-Weber’s signature win is top 5 ranked EWU
-Davis’ signature win is San Jose State

I’d rank the three:
1. EWU
2. UC Davis
3. Weber State
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Mvemjsunpx »

BlackFalkin wrote:EWU definitely has the better resume. IMO Weber State’s loss to unranked NAU exposes them, especially when you consider EWU backup QB EB3 was starting only his 2nd game, on the road after Gage Gubrud’s season ending injury. If that game is played this weekend EWU smokes Weber State.
I dunno. EWU's biggest strength this year has been their running game (6.6 ypc), and Weber is the only team that's been able to shut that down.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by BlackFalkin »

EWU had a one-dimensional offense that day.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

BlackFalkin wrote:EWU had a one-dimensional offense that day.

Courtesy of the Weber State defense, something some Eagles fans seem to conveniently forget.

And technically the loss to Weber was EB3's 3rd start since EB3 started last year's contest with North Dakota after Gubrud was suspended after getting wasted and arrested after the loss to Weber last year. :coffee:

A thing I hear a lot lately is how different a team Eastern is since their loss to Weber State...yet so is Weber. Not only does Weber's defense continue to be absolutely solid (allowing only 17 points to MSU, 16 to UND, 7 to Sac and only 12 to SUU) but the offense is clicking on a more consistent basis now, moving the ball with more efficiency and scoring more points.
Last edited by Wildcat Ryan on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by kalm »

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:EWU had a one-dimensional offense that day.

Courtesy of the Weber State defense, something Eagles fans seem to conveniently forget.

And technically the loss to Weber was EB3's 3rd start since EB3 started last year's contest with North Dakota after Gubrud was suspended after getting wasted and arrested after the loss to Weber last year. :coffee:

A thing I hear a lot lately is how different a team Eastern is since their loss to Weber State...yet so is Weber. Not only does Weber's defense continue to be absolutely solid (allowing only 17 points to MSU, 16 to UND, 7 to Sac and only 12 to SUU) but the offense is clicking on a more consistent basis now, moving the ball with more efficiency and scoring more points.
All true. Weber’s front 7 really got after it and did a nice job of taking away the RPO they were so quick upfield... :nod:

Of course we were down to our 3rd and 4th string tackles for that game and were wounded on defense as well. Everybody is pretty much back now...knock on wood.

I’d feel good going back to Ogden in mid-December.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Gil Dobie »

I'm still thinking 3 seeds from the Big Sky, if not, UCD gets the boot.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Mvemjsunpx »

Gil Dobie wrote:I'm still thinking 3 seeds from the Big Sky, if not, UCD gets the boot.
I'd be surprised if any of those 3 didn't get a seed.

That leaves MSU as the only one playing next week, assuming they get in.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by css75 »

Weber, EWU, UCD, MSU all get in. Weber and EWU certainly get seeds, UCD might. After watching Weber and ISU, Weber could be a threat to take it all with a strong run game and great defense, both of which play well in cold weather.


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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Gil Dobie »

css75 wrote:Weber, EWU, UCD, MSU all get in. Weber and EWU certainly get seeds, UCD might. After watching Weber and ISU, Weber could be a threat to take it all with a strong run game and great defense, both of which play well in cold weather.


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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by BlackFalkin »

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:EWU had a one-dimensional offense that day.

Courtesy of the Weber State defense, something some Eagles fans seem to conveniently forget.

And technically the loss to Weber was EB3's 3rd start since EB3 started last year's contest with North Dakota after Gubrud was suspended after getting wasted and arrested after the loss to Weber last year. :coffee:
Weber lost to NAU & didn’t play Davis. Gage was gone @ Weber so...... you really hanging your hat on that win? Let’s hear that smart mouth when EWU is seeded higher than Weber State. :coffee:
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

BlackFalkin wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:

Courtesy of the Weber State defense, something some Eagles fans seem to conveniently forget.

And technically the loss to Weber was EB3's 3rd start since EB3 started last year's contest with North Dakota after Gubrud was suspended after getting wasted and arrested after the loss to Weber last year. :coffee:
Weber lost to NAU & didn’t play Davis. Gage was gone @ Weber so...... you really hanging your hat on that win? Let’s hear that smart mouth when EWU is seeded higher than Weber State. :coffee:

Weber beat Gage Gubrud in Cheney last year. Him not playing this year is not a good enough excuse. And of course in hanging my hat on that win. What with all the Eastern Washington Chest Thumping thats been going on for the last few weeks it must've been a damn good win. It'll be a shame if Eastern is seeded above us, but if they are then they are. If Weber has to win in Cheney to move on then Challenge Accepted. Weber has been shutting down high powered offenses all year. We can do it again.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by css75 »

Gil Dobie wrote:
css75 wrote:Weber, EWU, UCD, MSU all get in. Weber and EWU certainly get seeds, UCD might. After watching Weber and ISU, Weber could be a threat to take it all with a strong run game and great defense, both of which play well in cold weather.


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Weber made a believer of me today, and they did it indoors.


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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by BlackFalkin »

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:
Weber lost to NAU & didn’t play Davis. Gage was gone @ Weber so...... you really hanging your hat on that win? Let’s hear that smart mouth when EWU is seeded higher than Weber State. :coffee:

Weber beat Gage Gubrud in Cheney last year. Him not playing this year is not a good enough excuse. And of course in hanging my hat on that win. What with all the Eastern Washington Chest Thumping thats been going on for the last few weeks it must've been a damn good win. It'll be a shame if Eastern is seeded above us, but if they are then they are. If Weber has to win in Cheney to move on then Challenge Accepted. Weber has been shutting down high powered offenses all year. We can do it again.

Again, the coaches DO NOT AGREE. :coffee:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/ ... aches-poll
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

BlackFalkin wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:

Weber beat Gage Gubrud in Cheney last year. Him not playing this year is not a good enough excuse. And of course in hanging my hat on that win. What with all the Eastern Washington Chest Thumping thats been going on for the last few weeks it must've been a damn good win. It'll be a shame if Eastern is seeded above us, but if they are then they are. If Weber has to win in Cheney to move on then Challenge Accepted. Weber has been shutting down high powered offenses all year. We can do it again.

Again, the coaches DO NOT AGREE. :coffee:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/ ... aches-poll

I dont really care what the coaches think. The only thing I care about is the 14-6 final score. And like I said If Weber has to go through Cheney...Big deal, we can win there.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by kalm »

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:

Again, the coaches DO NOT AGREE. :coffee:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/ ... aches-poll

I dont really care what the coaches think. The only thing I care about is the 14-6 final score. And like I said If Weber has to go through Cheney...Big deal, we can win there.
The coaches poll is dumpster fire for sure but it’s used by the committee. :ohno:

Weber and EWU are super close. Weber shutting down ISU yesterday was very impressive. :nod: The blitzes come from anywhere and everywhere and they’re not afraid to bring the house.

So it’s a close H2H win at home vs EWU’s more impressive signature win, way stronger margin of victory, and Weber’s bad loss to NAU.

I’m good with it either way and like I said earlier would feel confident in our chances at going back to Ogden.
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

kalm wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:

I dont really care what the coaches think. The only thing I care about is the 14-6 final score. And like I said If Weber has to go through Cheney...Big deal, we can win there.
The coaches poll is dumpster fire for sure but it’s used by the committee. :ohno:

Weber and EWU are super close. Weber shutting down ISU yesterday was very impressive. :nod: The blitzes come from anywhere and everywhere and they’re not afraid to bring the house.

So it’s a close H2H win at home vs EWU’s more impressive signature win, way stronger margin of victory, and Weber’s bad loss to NAU.

I’m good with it either way and like I said earlier would feel confident in our chances at going back to Ogden.
Eastern deserves a high seed for sure, Eagles have really been tearing it up after the Weber game. That win over Davis was incredibly impressive. Id actually love to see a rematch as both teams have grown since that game. I think it would make for an incredible showdown :nod:
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Re: How Many Big Sky Seeds?

Post by Gil Dobie »

css75 wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:
Weather can make a difference, as long as they play good indoors, if they go thru Fargo.
Weber made a believer of me today, and they did it indoors.


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