#6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

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#6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:21 pm

Should be a great game then.

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Sam Houston State coach K.C. Keeler says he believes Bearkats match up better physically with @NDSUfootball than they have in the past.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:25 pm

Keeler Link

“For us to do that, we have to go through the best program in the country and that’s North Dakota State. We talk about them all the time. We talk about Alabama and North Dakota State all the time in terms of how they do things and the reason why they win. There’s a method to their madness. It’s not by chance, it’s by design. We’re excited. With the way this defense can play, I think it’s going to be a great contest at their place.”
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby 89Hen » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:45 pm

Who is this Keeler clown?
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:17 pm

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?


Bo Pelini wannabe. :)
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby dal4018 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:25 pm

Will not matter the Bison are going to smoke them anyway unless the Wildcats come up with a great game plan for a upset!!!!

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:39 pm

dal4018 wrote:Will not matter the Bison are going to smoke them anyway unless the Wildcats come up with a great game plan for a upset!!!!


Bearkats.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:27 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:Keeler Link

“For us to do that, we have to go through the best program in the country and that’s North Dakota State. We talk about them all the time. We talk about Alabama and North Dakota State all the time in terms of how they do things and the reason why they win. There’s a method to their madness. It’s not by chance, it’s by design. We’re excited. With the way this defense can play, I think it’s going to be a great contest at their place.”


I hope by "this defense" he means North Dakota State's and not Sam Houston State's. As noted in another thread, Sam Houston State is rated 107th in total defense (439 ypg) and 90th in scoring defense (29.4 ppg). Also 94th in rushing defense (180 ypg, 4.48 ypc).

If North Dakota State's #1 ranked total and #2 ranked scoring defense slows Sam Houston State's offense down I don't think a great contest is likely. North Dakota State is also ranked #1 in passing yards allowed and #2 in pass efficiency defense. North Dakota State hasn't played a passing offense ranked as high in the NCAA stats as Sam Houston State as Sam Houston State's passing offense is #1. But the Bison held the 6th ranked passing offense (South Dakota) to 14 points and held the 8th ranked passing offense (Eastern Washington) to 13 points.

It's always possible that Sam Houston State's defense could unexpectedly match up well with North Dakota State's offense and win a defensive struggle. But I think it's more likely that if Sam Houston State is going to win they're going to have to continue to score a lot of points in spite of playing against a defense that's a lot better than any they've faced so far this season. Flipping Northwestern State got 36 points, 518 total yards, and 297 rushing yards at 7.6 yards per carry against Sam Houston State.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby kalm » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:39 pm

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?


He used to coach defense.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:08 pm

Here's another one for you:

Prairie View got 31 points, 499 total yards, and 334 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per carry against Sam Houston State. And it wasn't option football. I watched the game. It was power football. Prairie View overpowering Sam Houston State's defense.

It could happen. Football is unpredictable. But it'd be a surprise if Sam Houston State can slow down North Dakota State's offense.

Sam Houston State is 1st in FCS scoring offense playing in the Southland. North Dakota State is 2nd in FCS scoring offense playing in the Missouri Valley. Meanwhile North Dakota State is 2nd in scoring defense while Sam Houston State is the aforementioned 90th.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby GannonFan » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:02 pm

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?


He used to coach defense.


When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby andy7171 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:42 am

89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He demands a firm hand shake and worships Corey Hart.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby andy7171 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:43 am

GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
He used to coach defense.


When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:46 am

andy7171 wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
When? He's been an offensive coach everywhere he's been - he's never claimed to be a defensive playcaller - in his head coaching stints he's always publicly deferred to the defensive coordinator.

GF gets jokes!


What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness. :oops:
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby GannonFan » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:10 am

kalm wrote:
andy7171 wrote:GF gets jokes!


What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness. :oops:


If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year. :ohno:
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:22 am

GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness. :oops:


If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year. :ohno:


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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:32 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:Should be a great game then.

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Sam Houston State coach K.C. Keeler says he believes Bearkats match up better physically with @NDSUfootball than they have in the past.

That is true, certainly at least since 2011. Soft Houston as soft this year from what I have seen. If they can stay within a couple of scores of NDSU maybe they can shed the Soft Houston label.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:42 pm

Last 3 Soft Houston road playoff games:
2014 semis L @ NDSU 35-3 (did win road playoff games @ JSU & @ VU)
2015 semis L @ JSU 62-10
2016 qtr L @ JMU 65-7

Line is NDSU -21, O/U 64.5.

1 common opponent, both beat S Dakota at home.
NDSU 49, SD 14 (up 49-7 after 3 quarters).
SHSU 54, SD 42 (up 41-14 at the half).
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:56 am

HOT TAKE: North Dakota State is a heavy favorite in this game. *pause to allow readers to calm down*

The real question is whether Sam Houston can even put up a fight, since they haven't in their last 3 road playoff games (outscored by an average of 54-7 :o ). If the Bearkats do actually show up, then they may have a shot. Their pass-protection stats are quite good, and Jeremiah Briscoe is the 10th. ranked QB on NFL Draft Scout. Briscoe may have to play at an NFL level to win this, though, because the opposing D is really good and I just don't see Sam Houston's defense stopping the Bison running game.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:



        Quarterbacks -- Sam Houston St.

        Running Backs - North Dakota St.

        Receivers/TEs - Sam Houston St.

        Offensive Line - North Dakota St.


        Defensive Line - North Dakota St.

        Linebackers --- North Dakota St.

        Secondary ---- North Dakota St.


        Kicking ------ Sam Houston St.

        Punting ------ North Dakota St.

        Return Teams - Sam Houston St.

        Kickoffs ------ Sam Houston St.





          Sam Houston St. 20-42 North Dakota St.

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:28 am

Anybody have one of these?

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby BDKJMU » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:33 pm

Big question is is Davion Davis playing? He got hurt 1st half vs Kennesaw & didn't return..

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:05 pm

Mvemjsunpx wrote:The real question is whether Sam Houston can even put up a fight, since they haven't in their last 3 road playoff games (outscored by an average of 54-7 :o ). If the Bearkats do actually show up, then they may have a shot. Their pass-protection stats are quite good,


I think the home/road thing with Sam Houston State is a little overblown. I think 2016 James Madison, 2015 Jacksonville State, and 2014 North Dakota State would've blown Sam Houston State out regardless of where they played.

On the pass protection stats thing: Central Arkansas did get 3 sacks against Sam Houston State and during the parts of the game I watched they did get pressure. I suspect North Dakota State is better up front on defense than Central Arkansas was.

Factoid: Sam Houston State gave up 8 sacks in games against playoff teams. 3 against Central Arkansas, 1 (only) against Nicholls State, 2 against South Dakota, 2 against Kennesaw State.

I also think Sam Houston State is a "quick release" passing offense. If there are problems with "quick release" due to coverage there could be issues with sacks. And they're going to be playing against the #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed and the #5 defense in terms of passing efficiency.
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby BDKJMU » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm

GannonFan wrote:
kalm wrote:
What I meant to say was Keeler's 2010 team at Delaware played some great D. Sorry for the clumsiness. :oops:


If only the chain crew recognized they played great defense that year. :ohno:

MEAC refs sucks worse than their teams do..
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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:50 am

It's Game Day Pukes!

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby Gil Dobie » Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:17 am

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Re: #6 Sam Houston @ #2 North Dakota St; Friday Night Lights

Postby 93henfan » Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:30 am

andy7171 wrote:
89Hen wrote:Who is this Keeler clown?

He demands a firm hand shake and worships Corey Hart.



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