Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

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Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:34 pm

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1st ever meeting between the 2 schools. Only JMU's 3rd time ever playing a Big Sky team. 2 prior were against Montana, beating them in the 04' NC game and losing to Montana in the 08' semis.

JMU
W @ E Carolina (3-9) 34-14
W E Tenn St (4-7) 52-10
W Norfolk St (4-7) 75-14
W Maine (4-6) 28-10
W @ UD (7-4) 20-10
W VU (5-6) 30-8
W @ W&M (2-9) 46-14
W UNH (9-4) 21-0
W @ URI (3-8) 38-3
W UR (6-5) 20-13
W Elon (8-4) 31-3
Playoffs
W SBU (10-3) 26-7

Weber St
W Montana Western (Div II) 76-0
L @ Cal (5-7) 33-20
W @ Sac State (7-4) 31-24
W UC Davis (5-6) 41-3
W @ Montana St (5-6) 25-17
L SUU (9-2) 32-16
W @ Cal Poly (1-10) 17-3
W Montana (7-4) 41-27
W @ EWU (7-4) 28-20
W @ PSU (0-11) 63-17
W ID St (4-7) 35-7
Playoffs
W WIU (8-4) 21-19
W @ SUU (9-3) 30-13
http://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st/football

Scoring Offense:
JMU - 11th, 35.1 ppg
Weber - 17th, 34.2 ppg

Total Offense:
JMU - 30th, 419.3 ypg
Weber - 37th, 402.8 ypg

Passing Offense:
JMU - 43rd, 221.5 ypg
Weber - 47th, 216.7 ypg

Rushing Offense:
JMU - 23rd, 197.8 ypg
Weber - 29th, 186.1 ypg

Scoring Defense:
JMU - 1st, 8.8 ppg
Weber - 10th, 16.5 ppg

Total Defense:
JMU - 2nd, 235.1 ypg
Weber - 28th, 327.5 ypg

Passing Defense:
JMU - 7th, 150.8 ypg
Weber - 63rd, 212.4 ypg

Rushing Defense:
JMU - 6th, 84.3 ypg
Weber - 22nd, 115.1 ypg

Turnover Margin:
JMU - 32 gained, 16 lost. +16 TO.
Weber - 27 gained, 18 lost. +9 TO.

Starting QB Passing Efficiency:
RANK NAME CL POSITION G PASS ATT PASS COM INT PASS YDS PASS TD PASS EFF
Weber - 10th Stefan Cantwell Sr. QB 13 322 204 6 2740 23 154.7
JMU - 14th Bryan Schor Sr. QB 12 315 218 11 2512 23 153.3
Last edited by BDKJMU on Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 12/8, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:10 pm

Line currently JMU -12.5, O/U 38.

Will definitely be the oldest team JMU has ever faced. At least three 26 year olds on roster. 2 deep peppered with 23-26 year olds, including 25 year old starting QB.

Accuweather hourly forecast has 32 degrees at kickoff, 26 at end of game. Last year for the Friday night qtr final vs Soft Houston it was 26 at kickoff, low 20s by the end of the game. Think that hurt those boys from Texas. Don't think it will have any effect on the men from northern UT- will seem downright balmy to them.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:25 pm

Of note, and I'm not sure it matters as I think JMU's D is really good, but they played exactly two offenses ranked in the to 50 of FCS. Weber Has played 3 in the top 10 and 8 in the top 25. I think JMU will win but I'd gladly take 12.5. :nod:
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:33 pm

kalm wrote:Of note, and I'm not sure it matters as I think JMU's D is really good, but they played exactly two offenses ranked in the to 50 of FCS. Weber Has played 3 in the top 10 and 8 in the top 25. I think JMU will win but I'd gladly take 12.5. :nod:


CAA teams have faced far better defenses, which hold the offensive #s down. Big Sky teams have faced shitty defenses, so of course Weber has played a bunch of teams with big offensive #s.

CAA & Big Sky team rankings in Total Defense (Big Sky teams bolded):
#2 JMU
#9 Albany
#15 UD
#25 SBU
#28 Weber
#31 W&M
#35 VU
#37 Maine
#47 UNH
#55 TU
#61 UR
#63 URI
#72 Elon
#74 NAU
#87 MT St
#89 Sac St
#91 SUU
#97 MT
#104 Cal Poly
#110 ND
#113 UC Davis
#115 EWU
#118 UNC
#121 ID St
#122 PSU


So Weber has faced ZERO teams in the top 50, or top 60, or top 70, or top 80, in defense. The highest ranked they've faced is #87 Mt St.

What the above tells me is Weber's defense being ranked 28th despite all the good offenses they've faced, is very good. Their offense being ranked 37th, despite all the terrible defenses they've faced, isn't.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:45 pm

There's no question the CAA is a better defensive conference than the Big Sky, but the total-defense numbers make the difference seem bigger than it is. The Big Sky has a lot more high-octane hurry-up teams than the CAA.


Defensive Plays per Game

CAA - 67.4
BSC - 73.5

Only 1 CAA defense saw more than 70 plays-per-game (URI), and that wasn't by much. Only 2 Big Sky teams saw fewer than 70 plays-per-game (Weber & CP), and 2 Big Sky defenses actually saw more than 80 plays-per-game (EWU & NoCo).
Last edited by Mvemjsunpx on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby kalm » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:48 pm

BDKJMU wrote:
kalm wrote:Of note, and I'm not sure it matters as I think JMU's D is really good, but they played exactly two offenses ranked in the to 50 of FCS. Weber Has played 3 in the top 10 and 8 in the top 25. I think JMU will win but I'd gladly take 12.5. :nod:


CAA teams have faced far better defenses, which hold the offensive #s down. Big Sky teams have faced shitty defenses, so of course Weber has played a bunch of teams with big offensive #s.

CAA & Big Sky team rankings in Total Defense (Big Sky teams bolded):
#2 JMU
#9 Albany
#15 UD
#25 SBU
#28 Weber
#31 W&M
#35 VU
#37 Maine
#47 UNH
#55 TU
#61 UR
#63 URI
#72 Elon
#74 NAU
#87 MT St
#89 Sac St
#91 SUU
#97 MT
#104 Cal Poly
#110 ND
#113 UC Davis
#115 EWU
#118 UNC
#121 ID St
#122 PSU


So Weber has faced ZERO teams in the top 50, or top 60, or top 70, or top 80, in defense. The highest ranked they've faced is #87 Mt St.

What the above tells me is Weber's defense being ranked 28th despite all the good offenses they've faced, is very good. Their offense being ranked 37th, despite all the terrible defenses they've faced, isn't.


Touché.

But they did hold WIU to its 2nd lowest points total of the year and last time I checked they play pretty damn good D in the MVFC. Plus, the CAA stats are always going to be skewed by the weak OOC schedules.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:06 pm

kalm wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:
CAA teams have faced far better defenses, which hold the offensive #s down. Big Sky teams have faced shitty defenses, so of course Weber has played a bunch of teams with big offensive #s.

CAA & Big Sky team rankings in Total Defense (Big Sky teams bolded):
#2 JMU
#9 Albany
#15 UD
#25 SBU
#28 Weber
#31 W&M
#35 VU
#37 Maine
#47 UNH
#55 TU
#61 UR
#63 URI
#72 Elon
#74 NAU
#87 MT St
#89 Sac St
#91 SUU
#97 MT
#104 Cal Poly
#110 ND
#113 UC Davis
#115 EWU
#118 UNC
#121 ID St
#122 PSU


So Weber has faced ZERO teams in the top 50, or top 60, or top 70, or top 80, in defense. The highest ranked they've faced is #87 Mt St.

What the above tells me is Weber's defense being ranked 28th despite all the good offenses they've faced, is very good. Their offense being ranked 37th, despite all the terrible defenses they've faced, isn't.


Touché.

But they did hold WIU to its 2nd lowest points total of the year and last time I checked they play pretty damn good D in the MVFC. Plus, the CAA stats are always going to be skewed by the weak OOC schedules.

Compared to whom?
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:19 am

Two purple teams enter, but only one can move on to the semifinals. Weber really pounded Southern Utah into dust after spotting them a 10-0 lead—that level of physical play can work wonders in the playoffs. James Madison basically did the same thing last week, though, without spotting Stony Brook anything. The Wildcats are good and don't have any clear weaknesses, but they just don't have enough firepower to cut through JMU's suffocating D in Harrisonburg.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:



        Quarterbacks -- (push)

        Running Backs - Weber St.

        Receivers/TEs - James Madison

        Offensive Line - (push)


        Defensive Line - James Madison

        Linebackers --- James Madison

        Secondary ---- James Madison


        Kicking ------ (push)

        Punting ------ Weber St.

        Return Teams - Weber St.

        Kickoffs ------ Weber St.





          Weber St. 13-27 James Madison

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby kalm » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:36 am

BDKJMU wrote:
kalm wrote:
Touché.

But they did hold WIU to its 2nd lowest points total of the year and last time I checked they play pretty damn good D in the MVFC. Plus, the CAA stats are always going to be skewed by the weak OOC schedules.

Compared to whom?


EWU
JSU
UNI
Weber
SUU
NAU
WIU

One FBS + 2 PL, NEC, Ivy, or MEAC is the norm. Don't blame them for scheduling like that but it helps pad the stats. Same goes for the playoffs 1st round most years.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Wildcat Ryan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:23 am

The Number's for Weber's offense are a little misleading, though on paper it would appear that Weber's offense might not be that good despite going up against an abundance of bad defenses, I would say however that Weber's offense isn't really designed to be fast and flashy and score a tonkillion amount of points. It's a run first, methodical, eat up the clock, win TOP, keep opposing offenses off the field kind of offense. It isn't meant to be a high scoring offense just an efficient one.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby kalm » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:37 am

Wildcat Ryan wrote:The Number's for Weber's offense are a little misleading, though on paper it would appear that Weber's offense might not be that good despite going up against an abundance of bad defenses, I would say however that Weber's offense isn't really designed to be fast and flashy and score a tonkillion amount of points. It's a run first, methodical, eat up the clock, win TOP, keep opposing offenses off the field kind of offense. It isn't meant to be a high scoring offense just an efficient one.


Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:46 am

kalm wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:The Number's for Weber's offense are a little misleading, though on paper it would appear that Weber's offense might not be that good despite going up against an abundance of bad defenses, I would say however that Weber's offense isn't really designed to be fast and flashy and score a tonkillion amount of points. It's a run first, methodical, eat up the clock, win TOP, keep opposing offenses off the field kind of offense. It isn't meant to be a high scoring offense just an efficient one.


Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:


Except Hauck is supposedly bringing in Rosenbach as the OC, and his Adams State team threw the ball more than 50 times-per-game last year.

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby kalm » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:49 am

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
kalm wrote:
Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:


Except Hauck is supposedly bringing in Rosenbach as the OC, and his Adams State team threw the ball more than 50 times-per-game last year.


Maybe it will be a Patriots 50 short passes per game? :)
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Wildcat Ryan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:57 am

kalm wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:The Number's for Weber's offense are a little misleading, though on paper it would appear that Weber's offense might not be that good despite going up against an abundance of bad defenses, I would say however that Weber's offense isn't really designed to be fast and flashy and score a tonkillion amount of points. It's a run first, methodical, eat up the clock, win TOP, keep opposing offenses off the field kind of offense. It isn't meant to be a high scoring offense just an efficient one.


Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:


Thanks Kalm, I hope it continues as well but James Madison is a tall task and one that will be tough to overcome.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Grizalltheway » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:33 am

kalm wrote:
Mvemjsunpx wrote:
Except Hauck is supposedly bringing in Rosenbach as the OC, and his Adams State team threw the ball more than 50 times-per-game last year.


Maybe it will be a Patriots 50 short passes per game? :)

As long as they aren't screen passes. :x

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:45 am

Grizalltheway wrote:
kalm wrote:
Maybe it will be a Patriots 50 short passes per game? :)

As long as they aren't screen passes. :x


As long as Louie-McGee is on the team, I'm pretty sure there will be screen passes. :coffee:

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Wildcat Ryan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:49 am

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby 93henfan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:53 am

Let’s go Weber State!
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Gil Dobie » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:57 am

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby dal4018 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:26 am

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
kalm wrote:
Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:


Thanks Kalm, I hope it continues as well but James Madison is a tall task and one that will be tough to overcome.

Who is the deep threat for Weber St????

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby dal4018 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:29 am

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
kalm wrote:
Agreed. They're more like an MVFC style team and it's a winning formula in the Big Sky right now (think UND's success last season).

With Aaron Best giving overtures to being able to run the ball to close out games at Eastern, the return of Bobby Hauck, Weber and SUU's strides this season, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and the Big Sky continues to switch philosophies.

BTW Ryan, congrats on a great season. Hope you guys keep it rolling. :thumb:


Except Hauck is supposedly bringing in Rosenbach as the OC, and his Adams State team threw the ball more than 50 times-per-game last year.

Wasn't Montana always a pass happy squad I remember QB Dave Dickinson from '95 he threw the ball every chance they got.

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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Wildcat Ryan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:47 am

dal4018 wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:
Thanks Kalm, I hope it continues as well but James Madison is a tall task and one that will be tough to overcome.

Who is the deep threat for Weber St????



#8 Rashid Shaheed.

Averages about 22 yards a play, longest catch was 67 yards.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby 89Hen » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:27 am

Wildcat Ryan wrote:
dal4018 wrote:Who is the deep threat for Weber St????



#8 Rashid Shaheed.

Averages about 22 yards a play, longest catch was 67 yards.

24 receptions in 13 games. 7 games with 1 reception. Do they just not throw to him?
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby Wildcat Ryan » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 am

89Hen wrote:
Wildcat Ryan wrote:

#8 Rashid Shaheed.

Averages about 22 yards a play, longest catch was 67 yards.

24 receptions in 13 games. 7 games with 1 reception. Do they just not throw to him?


He really isn't targeted all that much. At least once a game they try to hit him deep but he is more of a kick return guy. Kid is fast though. Dropped a wide open TD pass vs SUU.
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Re: Qtrfinal #1: Weber St (11-2) @ #1 JMU (12-0), Fri, 7 PM, ESPN2

Postby BDKJMU » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:55 pm

JMU out for the season:
Aug camp: starting OT; 2 deep corner.
Sept: starting RB; starting OG (started 1st 4 games); 2 deep LB (started last year but wouldn't be now).
Oct: 2 deep TE
Nov: None

Dec: Last week vs SBU
-CAA Special teams POTY & JMU's 2nd best Sr WR #8 John Miller (caught winning TD passes vs SMU 2015 & NDSU last year) suffered what appeared to be a foot inuury 2nd qtr. Was on crutches in street clothes 2nd half. Apparently his mom said on Facebook was an ankle sprain. When asked about his status Houston said something like "Kickoff is at 7. You'll know at 7:01." No way he plays. JMU has 5 other good WR, 3 of them P5 transfers.
-Starting OG 4th qtr upper body injury. Pads came off, didn't return. Word is on JMU board was precautionary (JMU was up 26-0 at the time) and he will play.

WSU vs SUU: 2 of WSU's DBs went down to injury. According to a WSU poster on the JMU board one returned to the game, one didn't, and both are backups. He also said their FB got inured and didn't return & that was more concerning.

I'm sure WSU has other starters/2 deep out. Everyone has injuries now. Guarantee all 8 teams playing now have multiple starters & 2 deep (going back to the beginning of the season that are out. Key is if the losses are at QB, or to any likely All Americans at any position, or to multiple players at 1 position..

JMU and apparently WSU are very tight lipped on injuries. Apparently will get more info from family leaking on Facebook..
Houston: Made JMU Football Great Again.
28-2, 27-1 vs IAA, 17-0 at Bridgeforth.
1st Yankee/A-10/CAA team ever to go undefeated in league play in back to back seasons.


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