This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by Wildcat Ryan »

BDKJMU wrote:I understand Nichols ahead of McNeese. Remove Nichols P5 loss (TX A&M) and McNeese’s Div II ein, and both teams were 8-2/7-2, with Nichols winning the head to head. Cut and dry.

I see NAU (7-4/6-2, 0-2 vs play-off teams, lost @ Montana, SRS 22) got in over EWU (7-4/6-2, 0-3 vs play-off teams, beat Montana, SRS 24).
-Didn’t play each other during the regular season.
-Both had a P5 loss.

What say you Big Sky folks. Was that the right call?
Whether or not it was the right one it was definitely a tough one. EWU had the better conf win (Montana) but NAU had the better OOC win (Illinois State) The Only "top" Big Sky team that NAU didn't play that Eastern did was Weber State. They both played and Beat Montana State, Eastern beat Montana in Missoula whereas NAU lost to Montana in Missoula and they both got curbstomped by SUU in Cedar City. Eastern's loss to Weber at home is "better" than NAU's loss in Missoula (I mean come one Cookus or not the Griz weren't even playing a quarterback).

I honestly think that Eastern should have gotten the spot, but I am not the committee. NAU is still a good team but they are going in losing 2 of their last 3. It really could have come down to who the committee thought had the better OOC win which was Illinois State for NAU.

What I don't think was right was Weber getting Western Illinois and NAU getting San Diego. For the 2nd year in a row Weber is the highest ranked at large/non seeded team from the Big Sky and gets the hardest contest in the first round. If anything Weber should have gotten San Diego and NAU should have hosted/played at Western Illinois.

I do however like the possibility of a rematch with SUU in the 2nd round. Would love to see a HEALTHY Weber team play against the Birds. And nothing would be sweeter than ending SUU's season on their own home field. :twisted:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by dbackjon »

.500 vs .000 vs MVFC - Game, Set, Match NAU


/discussion
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by 93henfan »

IMHO, EWU should have been in before either UD or McNeese Community College.

Just look at the record. EWU beat every they were better than and lost only to ones who finished better in FCS or were called Texas Tech.

Ultimately though, none of the three teams were going to beat a seed, so what does it fucking matter?
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by 93henfan »

bandl wrote:I think the ancient adage "Don't get raped the last game of the season by a sub.-500 team to finish the season at 7-4" holds true for UD.
And some other schools: http://www.espn.com/ncf/boxscore/_/id/400950990

Oh no wait, that school still got in. I guess the old adage is bullshit when your AD is on the committee?
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by GannonFan »

They need an asterisk on that consecutive playoff streak for UNH. When you look back and see when they shouldn't have made it you start looking at 2012 or 2013 as a possibility - almost as bad as this year's inside deal.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by bandl »

93henfan wrote:
bandl wrote:I think the ancient adage "Don't get raped the last game of the season by a sub.-500 team to finish the season at 7-4" holds true for UD.
And some other schools: http://www.espn.com/ncf/boxscore/_/id/400950990

Oh no wait, that school still got in. I guess the old adage is bullshit when your AD is on the committee?
Maybe hire a better AD at UD that knows how to write his own adages and how to play the system?
Or
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by GannonFan »

bandl wrote:
93henfan wrote:
And some other schools: http://www.espn.com/ncf/boxscore/_/id/400950990

Oh no wait, that school still got in. I guess the old adage is bullshit when your AD is on the committee?
Maybe hire a better AD at UD that knows how to write his own adages and how to play the system?
Or
It's a good bet that the UNH AD will be pulled from the selection committee next year, I'm sure plenty of things are happening behind the scenes and will continue to do so. If he's only good at getting UNH into the playoffs, either at the expense of other CAA teams or regardless of them, then he's not the right guy for the job. He's been there forever, so there's good reason just from that standpoint for someone else to represent the conference.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by JohnStOnge »

I've said this before and this particular year I am particularly interested in saying it again:

The NCAA should not have selection committees for after the fact playoff selections. Instead, they should establish decision rules before the fact and render them into a mathematical algorithm. They should set up the objective rules before anybody knows which teams are going to be under consideration. Then when the season is over they should apply the algorithm and let the chips fall where they may. If they see what they think are problems then they should tweak the algorithm PRIOR to the next season.

The Louisiana High School Athletic Association (LHSAA) actually does this with its high school football playoffs. They have a power rating system. Everybody knows what it is. Everybody knows before each season starts that the system will determine who is in the playoffs and where teams are seeded. There's no personal opinion or subjective evaluation involved after the fact.

As a McNeese fan I look at the FCS ratings referenced on the NCAA site. McNeese is rated higher than 5 teams admitted as at larges according the SRS. They are rated higher than 8 teams presented in the coaches poll that got at large bids. And they are rated higher than 6 teams presented in the STATS poll that got at large bids.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by bandl »

GannonFan wrote:
bandl wrote: Maybe hire a better AD at UD that knows how to write his own adages and how to play the system?
Or
It's a good bet that the UNH AD will be pulled from the selection committee next year, I'm sure plenty of things are happening behind the scenes and will continue to do so. If he's only good at getting UNH into the playoffs, either at the expense of other CAA teams or regardless of them, then he's not the right guy for the job. He's been there forever, so there's good reason just from that standpoint for someone else to represent the conference.
So what you’re saying is...
UNH AD reacharound > UD AD reacharound
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by JohnStOnge »

clenz wrote:
McNeese being left out is 100% correct. They played the single worst schedule I've ever seen...and weren't impressive against it.
You must not have looked at Monmouth's schedule.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by JohnStOnge »

clenz wrote: McNeese being left out is 100% correct. They played the single worst schedule I've ever seen...and weren't impressive against it.
Another thing about this comment: The NCAA presents the SRS as a system that takes schedule into account. It assigns a rating to capture how impressive a team's performance was against the schedule it played given how tough or weak that schedule was. And the system they presented for doing that has McNeese rated as 19th. It had the "impressiveness" of McNeese's performance rated as higher than the "impressiveness" of the performances of 5 teams that the NCAA gave at large bids to.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by JohnStOnge »

Another thing is this thing about thinking in terms of opponent competition level instead of making some effort to objectively assess opponent strength. Like McNeese played D-II Florida Tech and I'm sure that automatically cost them because it's a D-II. And it's not a really strong opponent either. But by the Massey Ratings Florida Tech is a stronger opponent than 39 FCS opponents would be. Stronger than Portland State. Stronger than Alcorn State (which may win the SWAC championship). Stronger than Prairie View (a team Sam Houston State struggled to beat).

Meanwhile on the other side of the coin they automatically give credit for a FBS win no matter how bad the FBS is. Like New Hampshire beating Georgia Southern. McNeese beat Southeastern Louisiana, which is ranked slightly higher in the Massey ratings than Georgia Southern is. If you go by the Massey ratings Southeastern Louisiana would be a 1 point favorite over Georgia Southern on a neutral field. If you go by Sagarin Georgia southern would be a 4 point favorite on a neutral field.

And BTW Southeast Louisiana lost to Sun Belt member Louisiana Lafayette 51-48 to open the season because they decided to go for 2 at the end of the game after scoring to bring it to 49-48. They fumbled and Louisiana Lafayette returned it for a two point score of their own.

Georgia Southern plays at Louisiana Lafayette this weekend and we'll see how they do. But the point is that, right now, the idea that Georgia Southern was a WAY more "quality win" for New Hampshire than Southeastern Louisiana was for McNeese is absurd.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

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JohnStOnge wrote:Another thing is this thing about thinking in terms of opponent competition level instead of making some effort to objectively assess opponent strength. Like McNeese played D-II Florida Tech and I'm sure that automatically cost them because it's a D-II. And it's not a really strong opponent either. But by the Massey Ratings Florida Tech is a stronger opponent than 39 FCS opponents would be. Stronger than Portland State. Stronger than Alcorn State (which may win the SWAC championship). Stronger than Prairie View (a team Sam Houston State struggled to beat).

Meanwhile on the other side of the coin they automatically give credit for a FBS win no matter how bad the FBS is. Like New Hampshire beating Georgia Southern. McNeese beat Southeastern Louisiana, which is ranked slightly higher in the Massey ratings than Georgia Southern is. If you go by the Massey ratings Southeastern Louisiana would be a 1 point favorite over Georgia Southern on a neutral field. If you go by Sagarin Georgia southern would be a 4 point favorite on a neutral field.

And BTW Southeast Louisiana lost to Sun Belt member Louisiana Lafayette 51-48 to open the season because they decided to go for 2 at the end of the game after scoring to bring it to 49-48. They fumbled and Louisiana Lafayette returned it for a two point score of their own.

Georgia Southern plays at Louisiana Lafayette this weekend and we'll see how they do. But the point is that, right now, the idea that Georgia Southern was a WAY more "quality win" for New Hampshire than Southeastern Louisiana was for McNeese is absurd.
With 9 Southland games and only 2 OOC there’s NO EXCUSE for scheduling a Div II AND no I-A game AND the lone IAA OOC game a SWAC. On top of playing the likes of Abilene Baptist, Houston Christian, Incarnate Word, Lamar..
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by kalm »

dbackjon wrote:.500 vs .000 vs MVFC - Game, Set, Match NAU


/discussion
UND was .500 against the Valley too. :kisswink:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:I've said this before and this particular year I am particularly interested in saying it again:

The NCAA should not have selection committees for after the fact playoff selections. Instead, they should establish decision rules before the fact and render them into a mathematical algorithm. They should set up the objective rules before anybody knows which teams are going to be under consideration. Then when the season is over they should apply the algorithm and let the chips fall where they may. If they see what they think are problems then they should tweak the algorithm PRIOR to the next season.

The Louisiana High School Athletic Association (LHSAA) actually does this with its high school football playoffs. They have a power rating system. Everybody knows what it is. Everybody knows before each season starts that the system will determine who is in the playoffs and where teams are seeded. There's no personal opinion or subjective evaluation involved after the fact.

As a McNeese fan I look at the FCS ratings referenced on the NCAA site. McNeese is rated higher than 5 teams admitted as at larges according the SRS. They are rated higher than 8 teams presented in the coaches poll that got at large bids. And they are rated higher than 6 teams presented in the STATS poll that got at large bids.
Totally agree to as great an extent as possible.

1) The SRS is flawed. If the committee believed in it they would have followed it.

2) SoS doesn't matter much.

3) Neither does logic. If McNeese didn't have a strong enough resume to get an at-large how does Nicholls who's only good win is McNeese? A decent showing against A&M? The committee has stated numerous times that while FBS wins help a resume FBS losses have little to no affect. Unless it comes to their explanation for why APSU didn't get in, choosing to schedule 3 FBS opponents rather than testing themselves against FCS OOC (paraphrasing).

4) SoS doesn't matter much. Quality wins do...sometimes. See Sac State's resume vs. UNH. Better SoS, higher quality win, no bad losses.

Lessons learned: Schedule weak instead of compelling matchups against strong FCS opponents.

Regionalization and conference affiliation matter almost more than anything else.

UNH, Monmouth, and Nichols should be out and replaced by Sac, EWU, and UD. :ugeek:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by BDKJMU »

BDKJMU wrote:I understand Nichols ahead of McNeese. Remove Nichols P5 loss (TX A&M) and McNeese’s Div II ein, and both teams were 8-2/7-2, with Nichols winning the head to head. Cut and dry.

I see NAU (7-4/6-2, 0-2 vs play-off teams, lost @ Montana, SRS 22) got in over EWU (7-4/6-2, 0-3 vs play-off teams, beat Montana, SRS 24).
-Didn’t play each other during the regular season.
-Both had a P5 loss.

What say you Big Sky folks. Was that the right call?
And last night answered that it obviously wasn’t the right call. Good lord did the committee blow it by picking Monmouth and NAU..
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by Gil Dobie »

kalm wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:I've said this before and this particular year I am particularly interested in saying it again:

The NCAA should not have selection committees for after the fact playoff selections. Instead, they should establish decision rules before the fact and render them into a mathematical algorithm. They should set up the objective rules before anybody knows which teams are going to be under consideration. Then when the season is over they should apply the algorithm and let the chips fall where they may. If they see what they think are problems then they should tweak the algorithm PRIOR to the next season.

The Louisiana High School Athletic Association (LHSAA) actually does this with its high school football playoffs. They have a power rating system. Everybody knows what it is. Everybody knows before each season starts that the system will determine who is in the playoffs and where teams are seeded. There's no personal opinion or subjective evaluation involved after the fact.

As a McNeese fan I look at the FCS ratings referenced on the NCAA site. McNeese is rated higher than 5 teams admitted as at larges according the SRS. They are rated higher than 8 teams presented in the coaches poll that got at large bids. And they are rated higher than 6 teams presented in the STATS poll that got at large bids.
Totally agree to as great an extent as possible.

1) The SRS is flawed. If the committee believed in it they would have followed it.

2) SoS doesn't matter much.

3) Neither does logic. If McNeese didn't have a strong enough resume to get an at-large how does Nicholls who's only good win is McNeese? A decent showing against A&M? The committee has stated numerous times that while FBS wins help a resume FBS losses have little to no affect. Unless it comes to their explanation for why APSU didn't get in, choosing to schedule 3 FBS opponents rather than testing themselves against FCS OOC (paraphrasing).

4) SoS doesn't matter much. Quality wins do...sometimes. See Sac State's resume vs. UNH. Better SoS, higher quality win, no bad losses.

Lessons learned: Schedule weak instead of compelling matchups against strong FCS opponents.

Regionalization and conference affiliation matter almost more than anything else.

UNH, Monmouth, and Nichols should be out and replaced by Sac, EWU, and UD. :ugeek:

Would SAC, EWU or DU beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? Would UNH, Monmouth or Nichols beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? I doubt any of the 6 could beat JMU anywhere, anytime. Who had the largest bid for a home playoff game? That might tell you why some teams made the playoffs for the early rounds and others didn't.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by 89Hen »

BDKJMU wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:I understand Nichols ahead of McNeese. Remove Nichols P5 loss (TX A&M) and McNeese’s Div II ein, and both teams were 8-2/7-2, with Nichols winning the head to head. Cut and dry.

I see NAU (7-4/6-2, 0-2 vs play-off teams, lost @ Montana, SRS 22) got in over EWU (7-4/6-2, 0-3 vs play-off teams, beat Montana, SRS 24).
-Didn’t play each other during the regular season.
-Both had a P5 loss.

What say you Big Sky folks. Was that the right call?
And last night answered that it obviously wasn’t the right call. Good lord did the committee blow it by picking Monmouth and NAU..
Fuck the committee. They pretend to take their job seriously but I'd put most of the poster at AGS and quite a few here up against them in knowledge of I-AA football. :ohno:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by kalm »

Gil Dobie wrote:
kalm wrote:
Totally agree to as great an extent as possible.

1) The SRS is flawed. If the committee believed in it they would have followed it.

2) SoS doesn't matter much.

3) Neither does logic. If McNeese didn't have a strong enough resume to get an at-large how does Nicholls who's only good win is McNeese? A decent showing against A&M? The committee has stated numerous times that while FBS wins help a resume FBS losses have little to no affect. Unless it comes to their explanation for why APSU didn't get in, choosing to schedule 3 FBS opponents rather than testing themselves against FCS OOC (paraphrasing).

4) SoS doesn't matter much. Quality wins do...sometimes. See Sac State's resume vs. UNH. Better SoS, higher quality win, no bad losses.

Lessons learned: Schedule weak instead of compelling matchups against strong FCS opponents.

Regionalization and conference affiliation matter almost more than anything else.

UNH, Monmouth, and Nichols should be out and replaced by Sac, EWU, and UD. :ugeek:

Would SAC, EWU or DU beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? Would UNH, Monmouth or Nichols beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? I doubt any of the 6 could beat JMU anywhere, anytime. Who had the largest bid for a home playoff game? That might tell you why some teams made the playoffs for the early rounds and others didn't.
Bids are sealed until the 24 teams are selected according to the handbook. Saying they base it off anticipated gate revenue is Spandos country. It's not like the NCAA is getting rich off the 2500 tickets sold at UNH last Saturday.

All three would beat JMU at least a couple times out of 10.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by Gil Dobie »

kalm wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:

Would SAC, EWU or DU beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? Would UNH, Monmouth or Nichols beat JMU 1 out of 10 times? I doubt any of the 6 could beat JMU anywhere, anytime. Who had the largest bid for a home playoff game? That might tell you why some teams made the playoffs for the early rounds and others didn't.
Bids are sealed until the 24 teams are selected according to the handbook. Saying they base it off anticipated gate revenue is Spandos country. It's not like the NCAA is getting rich off the 2500 tickets sold at UNH last Saturday.

All three would beat JMU at least a couple times out of 10.
I didn't know about the sealed bids, so I was guessing. As far as the dream of beating JMU, good luck.
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by Gil Dobie »

This is more entertaining than the EWU fans giving the Bison fans crap about that replay ref, can't remember his name. :rofl:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by 89Hen »

89Hen wrote:I think Elon was vastly overrated all year.
89Hen wrote:I still contend that Elon is the worst team that keep winning.
Yup
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by William Fette »

Gil Dobie wrote:This is more entertaining than the EWU fans giving the Bison fans crap about that replay ref, can't remember his name. :rofl:
You wrang?
Upon further review
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by Gil Dobie »

William Fette wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:This is more entertaining than the EWU fans giving the Bison fans crap about that replay ref, can't remember his name. :rofl:
You wrang?
:rofl:
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Re: This year's "Woffed" teams: McNeese State and Delaware

Post by JohnStOnge »

Again: Get rid of the post season committee deliberations and go to an algorithm. You can have a committee but have the committee PRIOR to the season to establish the decision criteria when nobody knows the teams under consideration, what conferences they are from, etc. It is totally possible to do that with today's technology. Express the decision criteria in an algorithm then when the season is over no human does anything except press "run." It really ought to be that way with ALL of the NCAA tournaments.

If they do that and the team I'm pulling for doesn't get in I'm fine with it. Everybody knew what the decision criteria were before the season started and the decision criteria ruled at the end.
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