2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

[SuperHornet]

Oops....

[SuperHornet]

Wait a minute. I have it on good authority that the Big Sky is a power conference, so 7-4 should be a lock. Is that not correct?

[SDHornet]

Wait a minute. I have it on good authority that the Big Sky is a power conference, so 7-4 should be a lock. Is that not correct?

I didn't realize that many conferences would have (potentially) so many 8 win teams. Probably not likely 7-4 is good enough in there are 3 BSC teams with 8+ wins.

[BDKJMU]

If NAU beats SUU, the Big Sky will potentially have a 9-2 Weber and 3 8-3 teams (UM, NAU, SUU)...in that scenario I think one of USD or UNI or UNH get left out.

Agreed.

[BDKJMU]

I'd love to hear your reasoning why NAU and EWU get passed over for 7-4 UNH. Unless UNH beats Elon, their best win will be against currently 4-4 Maine.

A 7-4 EWU should get in over a 7-4 UNH.
-EWU would be 1-3 vs likely playoff teams and would be getting in as a 4th Big Sky.
-UNH would be 0-3 vs playoff teams, but with a I-A win (albeit a terrible I-A team). Would be getting in as a 5th CAA. UNH does have a 14 year playoff streak, which I think carries some weight with the committee, and their AD is on the selection committee.

I could see it going either way. Outside the MVFC, EWU and UNH night be the only 2 who have a shot at getting in at 7-4..

This weekend UNH has a shot to knock off Elon at home. If that happens (I’d give it about a 40% chance)
then UNH would be a lock at 8-3...

[89Hen]

This weekend UNH has a shot to knock off Elon at home. If that happens (I’d give it about a 40% chance)
then UNH would be a lock at 8-3...

I still contend that Elon is the worst team that keep winning.

[JohnStOnge]

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

I think McNeese State needs for Nicholls State to lose in order to get in ahead of Nicholls State because Nicholls State would finish 9-2 if they DON'T lose. They'd be tied for second in the Southland with one conference loss and they beat McNeese State head to head.

Nicholls State does have it tougher over the last two games of the season though. They are at Stephen F. Austin, a team I think has been getting better, and at Southeastern Louisiana, a very physical team. McNeese State is home against Northwestern State then on the road at Lamar.

As a McNeese fan I am hoping Nicholls State goes 0-2 in its last two games and McNeese State goes 2-0. I think McNeese will be in the playoffs if that happens.

It's just a shame that it's come to this because McNeese State really is a much better team physically than Nicholls State is. That opening game loss by McNeese to team (Nicholls State) that they should have beaten by at least two or three touchdowns is really haunting them now.

[dal4018]

Norfolk St knocked NCCU last week today they have a chance to defeat A&T and it would be the second time they removed a team from the top 25.

Neither belongs in the top 25.

That is your opinion.

[89Hen]

Neither belongs in the top 25.

That is your opinion.

That's 99% of people's opinion.

[kalm]

Neither belongs in the top 25.

That is your opinion.

Correct. What's the name of the division they play in?

[BDKJMU]

So I figure I'll put this here, too, but I did some analysis on the teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs.

I'm assuming going forward that every team that's *supposed* to win does. (Close games go to the home team)

I know this probably won't be how it works out, but it's the "most likely" scenario.

Edit: Forgot about the "Celebration Bowl" lol

Here are your auto bids:
Big Sky: Southern Utah (9-2)
Big South: Kennesaw St. (10-1)
CAA: JMU (11-0)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
OVC: Jax St. (10-1)
Patriot: Colgate (7-4) (But honestly, who the hell knows...)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: Central Arkansas (10-1)

So now we have 13 spots left. If it plays out this way, these teams are pretty much a lock:

Big Sky:
Weber State (9-2)

CAA:
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)

MVFC:
South Dakota (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
Nicholls St (9-2)
McNeese St (9-2)

So that leaves only 5 spots for the following teams to fight over:

NAU (7-4)
EWU (7-4)
Montana (8-3)
North Carolina Central (8-3)
Monmouth (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
Western Carolina (8-4)
Samford (8-3)

MVFC:
NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4) (finishes season with 3 straight losses, 1-3 vs playoff teams, I-A win).

CAA:
-JMU (11-0) (AQ)
-SBU (9-2)
-UNH (8-3) (Think they upset Elon. If they don't, think they won't get in at 7-4).
-UD (8-3)
-Elon (8-3) (I think they are upset by UNH).

Big Sky:
-SUU (9-2) (AQ)
-Weber State (9-2)
-Montana (8-3)

So-Con
-Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
-Furman/Samford winner (8-3)
-WCU (8-4) (2 I-A losses)

Southland:
-Central Arkansas (10-1) (AQ)
-SHSU (10-1, 9-1 vs Div 1)
-McNeese (9-2)

OVC:
-Jax St. (10-1) (AQ)

Big South:
-Kennesaw/Monmouth winner (10-1) (AQ)

NEC:
-Duquesne (9-2) (AQ)

Patriot:
-Colgate (7-4) or Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

Pioneer:
-San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Misses the cut:
-Austin Peay (8-4, but 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so in committee's eyes (don't count I-A losses) would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.
-NAU (7-4)
-EWU (7-4)
-Furman/Samford loser (7-4) (If Samford they would be 6-4 vs Div I).
-Nichols (8-3) (Think they lose one of last 2).
-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser (If Kennesaw would be 8-2 vs Div I).

-IF UNH doesn't upset Elon, or beat Albany last game, they don't get in at 7-4, despite a 13 year playoff streak and their AD being on the selection committee, & one of the 'Misses the Cut' teams does.
-If NAU upsets SUU, then NAU at 8-3 would get in as a 4th Big Sky, and SD probably wouldn't as a 5th MVFC.
-IF Nichols doesn't lose one of their last 2, they get in at 9-2, and either SD or McNeese (lost to Nichols), doesn't.
-IF NC A&T loses to UNC Central, then NC Central goes to the Celebration Bowl and NC A&T at 10-1 would get an At Large, and SD wouldn't.

Bump- totally redid mine. A little ridiculous to do this before the last 2 weeks of games, but not as ridiculous as people doing fields 3-4 weeks out..

[89Hen]

So I assume San Diego, Central Connecticut, Jacksonville State and Wofford have already locked up their auto bids? Looks like they can't be caught or hold the tie breaker over the team that can catch them.

[93henfan]

So I assume San Diego, Central Connecticut, Jacksonville State and Wofford have already locked up their auto bids? Looks like they can't be caught or hold the tie breaker over the team that can catch them.

Correct. Those are the only locks on auto-bids after last weekend.

[89Hen]

So I assume San Diego, Central Connecticut, Jacksonville State and Wofford have already locked up their auto bids? Looks like they can't be caught or hold the tie breaker over the team that can catch them.

Correct. Those are the only locks on auto-bids after last weekend.

Is there a place where we are discussing this? Seems like playoff talk has been way too light considering we're less than a week away from Selection Sunday.

[93henfan]

Correct. Those are the only locks on auto-bids after last weekend.

Is there a place where we are discussing this? Seems like playoff talk has been way too light considering we're less than a week away from Selection Sunday.

I got this from the Bracketology thread on AGS.

Now that Delaware is relevant again after Halloween, I've been getting my actual FCS talk there.

None of my posts have been deleted so far!

[Rob Iola]

Is there a place where we are discussing this? Seems like playoff talk has been way too light considering we're less than a week away from Selection Sunday.

I got this from the Bracketology thread on AGS.

Now that Delaware is relevant again after Halloween, I've been getting my actual FCS talk there.

None of my posts have been deleted so far!

Delaware beating Villanova? Right. Sure.

[93henfan]

oops

[89Hen]

I think these 22 are in IF the results this weekend go as expected. All of these teams would be 8-3 or better (or auto) ...

Southern Utah
Weber State
Montana
Kennesaw State/Monmouth winner
James Madison
Elon
Stony Brook
Delaware
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Western Illinois
Central Connecticut
Jacksonville State
Patriot winner (Lehigh or Colgate)
San Diego
Wofford
Furman/Samford winner
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Nicholls
McNeese


7 teams for two spots. FOUR of the four loss teams have I-A wins.

Ranked in order IMO...

Eastern Washington (one of the best 4 loss teams, but they have 4 losses)
Northern Iowa (another good 4 loss team)
Northern Arizona (Western Illinois loss is gonna hurt)
South Dakota (will be on a 3 game losing streak, they're toast)
Illinois State (also on a 3 game losing streak, ouch)
Furman/Samford loser (doubtful)
Kennesaw State/Monmouth loser (long shot IMO)

[93henfan]

I got this from the Bracketology thread on AGS.

Now that Delaware is relevant again after Halloween, I've been getting my actual FCS talk there.

None of my posts have been deleted so far!

Delaware beating Villanova? Right. Sure.

My man, I thought you were good at math. There's a 5, 1, 5, 1 pattern here.

2006-2010 Nova
2011 Delaware
2012-2016 Nova
2017 ? obviously Delaware

[Wildcat Ryan]

I think these 22 are in IF the results this weekend go as expected. All of these teams would be 8-3 or better (or auto) ...

Southern Utah
Weber State
Montana
Kennesaw State/Monmouth winner
James Madison
Elon
Stony Brook
Delaware
New Hampshire
North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Western Illinois
Central Connecticut
Jacksonville State
Patriot winner (Lehigh or Colgate)
San Diego
Wofford
Furman/Samford winner
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston State
Nicholls
McNeese


7 teams for two spots. FOUR of the four loss teams have I-A wins.

Ranked in order IMO...

Eastern Washington (one of the best 4 loss teams, but they have 4 losses)
Northern Iowa (another good 4 loss team)
Northern Arizona (Western Illinois loss is gonna hurt)
South Dakota (will be on a 3 game losing streak, they're toast)
Illinois State (also on a 3 game losing streak, ouch)
Furman/Samford loser (doubtful)
Kennesaw State/Monmouth loser (long shot IMO)

I would probably put Northern Iowa at the top of the bubbles and I think NAU is a better overall team than Eastern. However I can see Eastern getting it due to their recent history and name.

UNI and Eastern get those last two spots.

[BDKJMU]

As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, finishing with 3 straight losses, losing 4 of last 5, I-A win, 1-3 vs likely playoff, 1 bad loss, but owns head to head over WIU.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

[Wildcat Ryan]

As I see it, down to about 30 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 14 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (@ 6-4 ILSU)
-SDSU (8-2) (@ 7-3 SD)

-JMU (10-0) (@ 8-2 Elon)
-Elon (8-2) (10-0 JMU
-SBU (8-2) (@ 5-4 Maine)

-SUU (8-2) (7-3 NAU)
-Weber State (8-2) (4-6 Idaho St)

-Wofford (9-1) (So Con AQ)
-Furman/Samford winner (would be 8-3)

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ)
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1)

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (6-4 Tenn St)

-Kennesaw/Monmouth winner (would be 10-1) (Big South AQ)

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (2-8 Robert Morris)

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (4-6 Marist)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (4-6 SIU) (lost head to head to SD).
-SD (7-3) (8-2 SDSU) (If lose would be 7-4/4-4, finishing season with 3 straight losses).

Win and In, lose and likely out: (6)
-UNH (7-3) (@ 3-7 Albany)
-UD (7-3) (@ 4-6 VU)

-NAU (7-3) (@ 8-2 SUU)

-Montana (7-3) (@ 4-6 Montana St)

-UNI (6-4) (0-10 Ind St)

-Nichols (8-2) (@ 5-5 SELA) (beat McNeese head to head).

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (0-10 Portland St) (One of the 6 above listed loses, which will happen, EWU is in).

-McNeese (8-2) (@ 2-8 Lamar) (7-2 vs Div I, didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win).

-Austin Peay (7-4) (6-4 EIU), 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (@ 5-5 Hampton) (10-0 Morgan St has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

You mean 10-0 North Carolina A&T right?

[BDKJMU]

As I see it, down to about 30 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 14 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (@ 6-4 ILSU)
-SDSU (8-2) (@ 7-3 SD)

-JMU (10-0) (@ 8-2 Elon)
-Elon (8-2) (10-0 JMU
-SBU (8-2) (@ 5-4 Maine)

-SUU (8-2) (7-3 NAU)
-Weber State (8-2) (4-6 Idaho St)

-Wofford (9-1) (So Con AQ)
-Furman/Samford winner (would be 8-3)

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ)
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1)

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (6-4 Tenn St)

-Kennesaw/Monmouth winner (would be 10-1) (Big South AQ)

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (2-8 Robert Morris)

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (4-6 Marist)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (4-6 SIU) (lost head to head to SD).
-SD (7-3) (8-2 SDSU) (If lose would be 7-4/4-4, finishing season with 3 straight losses).

Win and In, lose and likely out: (6)
-UNH (7-3) (@ 3-7 Albany)
-UD (7-3) (@ 4-6 VU)

-NAU (7-3) (@ 8-2 SUU)

-Montana (7-3) (@ 4-6 Montana St)

-UNI (6-4) (0-10 Ind St)

-Nichols (8-2) (@ 5-5 SELA) (beat McNeese head to head).

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (0-10 Portland St) (One of the 6 above listed loses, which will happen, EWU is in).

-McNeese (8-2) (@ 2-8 Lamar) (7-2 vs Div I, didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win).

-Austin Peay (7-4) (6-4 EIU), 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (@ 5-5 Hampton) (10-0 Morgan St has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

You mean 10-0 North Carolina A&T right?

Yeah.
-Also edited my list- forgot ILSU (6-4). Obviously if they upset NDSU they are in, lose and they are out.
-Also added lines which are out now...

[Gil Dobie]

UNI is in with a 6-2 MVFC record and share the title with a NDSU loss at ISUR. They have to beat Indiana St, 0-10 at this point and not competitive in the MVFC this year.

USD has to win or they are out. ISUR could get in with a win over NDSU.

MVFC is NDSU, SDSU, UNI locks, WIU, ISUR and USD possibly if they win.

[BDKJMU]

UNI is in with a 6-2 MVFC record and share the title with a NDSU loss at ISUR. They have to beat Indiana St, 0-10 at this point and not competitive in the MVFC this year.

USD has to win or they are out. ISUR could get in with a win over NDSU.

MVFC is NDSU, SDSU, UNI locks, WIU, ISUR and USD possibly if they win.

Say WIU, ILSU & USD all lost. Not a stretch, because of the 3, only WIU favored in their game Sat). ILSU would definitely be out at 6-5. I would think the MVFC would get 4 in. And a 7-4 SD would own the head to head over a 7-4 WIU, and therefore logically would get in ahead of WIU, no?