2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

[Gil Dobie]

UNI is in with a 6-2 MVFC record and share the title with a NDSU loss at ISUR. They have to beat Indiana St, 0-10 at this point and not competitive in the MVFC this year.

USD has to win or they are out. ISUR could get in with a win over NDSU.

MVFC is NDSU, SDSU, UNI locks, WIU, ISUR and USD possibly if they win.

Say WIU, ILSU & USD all lost. Not a stretch, because of the 3, only WIU favored in their game Sat). ILSU would definitely be out at 6-5. I would think the MVFC would get 4 in. And a 7-4 SD would own the head to head over a 7-4 WIU, and therefore logically would get in ahead of WIU, no?

Nail in the USD coffin is losing last 4 games.

[BDKJMU]

Say WIU, ILSU & USD all lost. Not a stretch, because of the 3, only WIU favored in their game Sat). ILSU would definitely be out at 6-5. I would think the MVFC would get 4 in. And a 7-4 SD would own the head to head over a 7-4 WIU, and therefore logically would get in ahead of WIU, no?

Nail in the USD coffin is losing last 4 games.

4 of last 5
http://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota/football

Would have:
-I-A win
-1-3 vs likely playoff teams
-1 not bad loss to a likely 6-5 ILSU..

Think that puts them on the bubble. After the committee put in 6-5 MVFC teams in 14' and 15', I'm still hesitant to believe they'll leave a 7-4 MVFC out.

[clenz]

They left an 8-4 MVFC team out in 2013....

[BDKJMU]

They left an 8-4 MVFC team out in 2013....

Ok, I had to look that one up.

2013 YSU (8-4/5-3)
-P5 loss
-2 non scholly Pioneer wins
-NEC win
-0-2 vs playoff teams
-Not bad loss to a 7-5 UNI
-Lost last 3 games.

2017 SD (assuming 7-4/4-4)
-G5 win
-1 non scholly Pioneer win
-Big Sky win
-1-3 vs likely playoff teams
-Not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU.
-Lost last 3 games

Overall I'd give the sleight resume edge to SD. But also I think the MVFC has a little higher level of regard than it did 4 in 2013.

[BDKJMU]

As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, finishing with 3 straight losses, losing 4 of last 5, I-A win, 1-3 vs likely playoff, 1 bad loss, but owns head to head over WIU.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

[AZGrizFan]

If USD DOES lose they have ZERO business being in the playoffs.

[Gil Dobie]

They left an 8-4 MVFC team out in 2013....

Ok, I had to look that one up.

2013 YSU (8-4/5-3)
-P5 loss
-2 non scholly Pioneer wins
-NEC win
-0-2 vs playoff teams
-Not bad loss to a 7-5 UNI
-Lost last 3 games.

2017 SD (assuming 7-4/4-4)
-G5 win
-1 non scholly Pioneer win
-Big Sky win
-1-3 vs likely playoff teams
-Not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU.
-Lost last 3 games

Overall I'd give the sleight resume edge to SD. But also I think the MVFC has a little higher level of regard than it did 4 in 2013.

The committee does like to put in that 2nd Ohio Valley team, whether they deserve it or not.

[clenz]

If USD DOES lose they have ZERO business being in the playoffs.

I agree with you. Been beating that drum on AGS for about 2 or 3 weeks now.

[BDKJMU]

Ok, I had to look that one up.

2013 YSU (8-4/5-3)
-P5 loss
-2 non scholly Pioneer wins
-NEC win
-0-2 vs playoff teams
-Not bad loss to a 7-5 UNI
-Lost last 3 games.

2017 SD (assuming 7-4/4-4)
-G5 win
-1 non scholly Pioneer win
-Big Sky win
-1-3 vs likely playoff teams
-Not bad loss to likely 6-5 ILSU.
-Lost last 3 games

Overall I'd give the sleight resume edge to SD. But also I think the MVFC has a little higher level of regard than it did 4 in 2013.

The committee does like to put in that 2nd Ohio Valley team, whether they deserve it or not.

Yeah, I wouldn't have a problem with them taking Austin Peay over SD if AP beats EIU (6-4). I said it above, AP with 12 games would be 8-4/7-1, 2nd place OVC, with 3 G5 losses and a loss to JSU. So in the committee's eyes (don't consider DII wins or I-A losses), they'd be 8-1 with a loss by 20 at home to the #2 or #3 seed. 2 best wins would be over a pair of 6-5 (EIU and Tenn St).
http://www.ncaa.com/schools/austin-peay/football

If EIU beats AP, they'd be 7-4/6-2, 2nd place OVC. OOC were thumped by G5 NIU and ILSU. OVC losses to JSU and to a likely 6-5 Tenn Tech. One win over a team with a winning record (likely 6-5 Tenn St).
http://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill/football

In the remote chance that Tenn ST (6-4/2-4, 5-4 vs Div I) pulled off the massive upset at JSU (-23.5), they'd be 6-4 vs Div I/3-4 OVC, G5 win over Ga St and monster win over JSU. But still, you're not taking a 6 Div I win team out of the OVC..Although it looks like Tenn State is in the fighting spirit for the game!
http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2017/11/1 ... eline.html

Cannot see them taking EIU. If its gonna be a 2nd OVC, it will be AP if AP beats EIU..

[BDKJMU]

As I see it, down to about 32 teams, with about 16 locks, with about 16 going for the remaining 8 spots..

Locks: (16)
-NDSU (9-1) (-13.5) @ ILSU (6-4)
-SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) @ SD (7-3)

-JMU (10-0)(-24)
-Elon (8-2)
-SBU (8-2) (-3.5) @ Maine (4-5)

-SUU (8-2) (-3.5) vs NAU (7-3)
-Weber State (8-2) (-24) vs Idaho St (4-6)

-Wofford (9-1) (AQ) @ S Carolina (7-3) (-20)
-Furman (7-3) (-1.5) @ Samford (6-3 vs Div I) winner.

-Central Arkansas (9-1) (Southland AQ) (-25.5) vs Abilene Christian (2-8).
-SHSU (8-1 vs Div 1) (-31.5) vs Houston Baptist (1-9).

-Jax St. (9-1) (OVC AQ) (-23.5) vs Tenn St (6-4).

-Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1) (-7) winner (Big South AQ).

-CCSU (7-3) (NEC AQ) (-25) vs Robert Morris (2-8).

Patriot AQ
-Lehigh (4-6) (-15) if they beat 3-7 Lafayette. If not, Colgate (6-4), (-28) if they beat 1-9 G Town.

-San Diego (8-2) (Pioneer AQ) (-33) vs Marist (4-6)

Win and a lock, lose and still likely in (2)
-WIU (7-3) (-15) vs SIU (4-6) (WIU lost head to head to SD).

-SD (7-3) vs SDSU (8-2) (-1.5) If SD loses would be 7-4/4-4, finishing with 3 straight losses, losing 4 of last 5, I-A win, 1-3 vs likely playoff, 1 bad loss, but owns head to head over WIU.

Win and In, lose and out: (8)
-ILSU (6-4) vs NDSU (9-1) (-13.5)

-UNI (6-4) (-33) vs Ind St (0-10)

-UNH (7-3) (-3.5) @ Albany (3-7).

-UD (7-3) (-5.5) @ VU (4-6)

-NAU (7-3) @ SUU (8-2) (-3.5)

-Montana (7-3) @ Montana St (4-6) (pk)

-Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5) (-3.5) (Nichols beat McNeese head to head).

-WCU (7-4) @ UNC (2-8) (-21.5)

Win and on bubble, lose and definitely out: (6)
-EWU (6-4) (-25) Portland St (0-10) (If 3 of the 8 above listed lose, which will happen (4 are underdogs & 1 is a pk), EWU is in.

-McNeese (7-2 vs Div I) (-24) @ Lamar (2-8) (didn't play a I-A, lost to both UCA & Nichols, dnp SHSU, not a single quality win). My guess is if 4 of the above 8 lose, McNeese might be the last team in.

-Austin Peay (7-4) (-7) vs EIU (6-4). AP 12 games, 4 losses. 3 I-A losses & loss to JSU, so if beat 6-4 EIU, in committee's eyes would be 8-1 but no wins vs playoff teams.

-Furman/Samford loser (would be 7-4, in Samford's case, 6-4 vs Div 1).

-Kennesaw/Monmouth loser would be 9-2 (8-2 in Kennesaw's case).

-Howard (7-3) (-6) @ Hampton (5-5) (10-0 NC A&T has clinched Celebration Bowl berth).

IF there are no upsets (according to 5dimes) then I think this would be the field:

JMU (11-0) (AQ)
SBU (9-2)
UD (8-3)
UNH (8-3)
Elon (8-3)

NDSU (10-1) (AQ)
SDSU (9-2)
WIU (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
SD (7-4)

SUU (9-2) (AQ)
Weber St (9-2)
Montana (8-3)
EWU (7-4)

UCA (10-1) (AQ)
SHSU (10-1)
McNeese St (9-2)

Wofford (9-2) (AQ)
Furman (8-3)

JSU (10-1) (AQ)

Kennesaw St (10-1) (AQ)

CCSU (8-3) (AQ)

Lehigh (5-6) (AQ)

San Diego (9-2) (AQ)

Out:
NAU (7-4)
Austin Peay (8-4)
Nichols St (8-3)
ILSU (6-5)
Samford (7-4/6-4 vs Div I)
Monmouth (9-2)
Howard (8-3) (Despite what Jay Walker says)..

But of course there's going to be some upsets on Sat, so we'll just have to wait and see..

Tonight:
-JSU waxed Tenn St 36-6.
-SELA beat Nichols 21-17, so looks like Nichols is out, and JSO St will make it in as the 3rd Southland...

[89Hen]

SELA beat Nichols 21-17

Lots of bubble teams with much rejoicing.

[BDKJMU]

SELA beat Nichols 21-17

Lots of bubble teams with much rejoicing.

SELA was favored at home according to 5dimes (-3.5)..

[89Hen]

Lots of bubble teams with much rejoicing.

SELA was favored at home according to 5dimes (-3.5)..

[apsufan82]

SELA beat Nichols 21-17

Lots of bubble teams with much rejoicing.

And us Austin Peay fans are one of them!

Newbie here btw. Been reading but never registered until now. Hard not to register and discuss with all the excitement this year.

[JohnStOnge]

-SELA beat Nichols 21-17, so looks like Nichols is out, and JSO St will make it in as the 3rd Southland...

Obviously it helps McNeese's chances but there's still an argument for Nicholls State if McNeese does win tomorrow night and it comes down to a choice between one of the two. McNeese would be 9-2 but it'd be 8-2 against D-1 opponents. Nicholls is 8-3 against D-1 opponents but one loss was a competitive 24-14 loss at Texas A&M. And of course Nicholls beat McNeese head to head.

I suspect that if McNeese wins tomorrow night they will end up rated a little higher in that Simple Ranking System thing they use. But that's just one factor.

Some other bubble teams will lose tomorrow though. I can't remember specifics but I looked at who all the reasonably identifiable potential at large teams are playing this week. Some of them are big underdogs and there are other cases in which bubble teams are playing each other. IF McNeese wins I think there's a pretty good chance they'll get an at large bid.

It's really a shame that they're in this position though because there is no way they should've lost that opening game at Nicholls State. I knew at the time that was a huge screw up because of how weak their schedule was going to be.

[JohnStOnge]

SELA was favored at home according to 5dimes (-3.5)..

I didn't say anything beforehand but they were also slight favorites by Sagarin and Massey. I was hopeful but I didn't want to say anything.

[89Hen]

Lots of bubble teams with much rejoicing.

And us Austin Peay fans are one of them!

Newbie here btw. Been reading but never registered until now. Hard not to register and discuss with all the excitement this year.

Welcome! But AP does not deserve to be even considered for the playoffs IMO. THREE I-A games? No wins over ranked teams. No wins over playoff bound teams.

[BDKJMU]

And us Austin Peay fans are one of them!

Newbie here btw. Been reading but never registered until now. Hard not to register and discuss with all the excitement this year.

Welcome! But AP does not deserve to be even considered for the playoffs IMO. THREE I-A games? No wins over ranked teams. No wins over playoff bound teams.

True, and AP wouldn’t be in if UD, UNH, and Montana all hadn’t choked..

[89Hen]

UNH, Furman, Monmouth... Are you kidding me?

[SDHornet]

South Dakota got in.

[93henfan]

UNH, Furman, Monmouth... Are you kidding me?

All we had to do was beat Towson or Villanova.

Fuck us running.

[bandl]

First 2 out
Austin Peay
Delaware

[89Hen]

UNH, Furman, Monmouth... Are you kidding me?

All we had to do was beat Towson or Villanova.

Fuck us running.

Yes, they didn't deserve to be in, in a vacuum. But you see some of the teams in. UFR.

[89Hen]

First 2 out
Austin Peay
Delaware

AP is a feel good story. Take away the fact they lost so many games in the last coulple years and they're not in the conversation. No wins over ranked teams. No wins over teams in the field. Three payday games.

[bandl]

First 2 out
Austin Peay
Delaware

AP is a feel good story. Take away the fact they lost so many games in the last coulple years and they're not in the conversation. No wins over ranked teams. No wins over teams in the field. Three payday games.

I was just stating what they said in the ESPNU selection show