I-AA Polls

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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:19 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
In the ranking composite at https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm Team A is ranked 14th and Team B is ranked 18th. I know people can find individual systems that go into that composite that have weird outcomes. But overall I view it as the most credible ranking I know of. It would be more credible if they left human polls out of it. But the number of human polls involved is small enough to keep them from compromising the results too much.

Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.

No more of a turd than the STATS and Coaches' Polls. They're pretty much all turds. AGS might be the only no non turd..
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:23 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
In the ranking composite at https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm Team A is ranked 14th and Team B is ranked 18th. I know people can find individual systems that go into that composite that have weird outcomes. But overall I view it as the most credible ranking I know of. It would be more credible if they left human polls out of it. But the number of human polls involved is small enough to keep them from compromising the results too much.

Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.


Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:35 pm

BTW, have you guys noticed that North Dakota State's defense has given up only 159 yards and 6.2 yards per game on defense? I know that their schedule so far hasn't been filled with the best of offenses but they did also hold Eastern Washington to 204 total yards, 11 first downs, and 13 points.

This appears to be a really dominant defense. I think that last year they slipped a little on defense. They were still very good; but just a little bit down. It looks to me like they may be back in a big way.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby Gil Dobie » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:23 am

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW, have you guys noticed that North Dakota State's defense has given up only 159 yards and 6.2 yards per game on defense? I know that their schedule so far hasn't been filled with the best of offenses but they did also hold Eastern Washington to 204 total yards, 11 first downs, and 13 points.

This appears to be a really dominant defense. I think that last year they slipped a little on defense. They were still very good; but just a little bit down. It looks to me like they may be back in a big way.


It helps to have the best d-line player and best linebacker back from 2 years ago, although each played part of last season. Then we go a lose the best pass rusher before the season started.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby 89Hen » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:23 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Christ, here we go again. John, just STOP until you man up and put your computers up against the humans. Massey is a giant turd.


Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.

Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:30 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Pick one human for your "champion" and let me know who his or her picks are for each week and I will keep track. Provide who his or her favorite is and the predicted margin. Make sure it's done in a way I will notice because I do not attempt to read all the notifications I get.

BTW, Massey clearly states that his system is not designed to make predictions. And I've actually had e mail exchanges with him about that. My belief is that ratings should be based on comparing teams in terms of who would be predicted to win. He does not believe that. He believes that rankings should be based on the model that best explains past results. He does provide a formula for making predictions if you wish. But that's not the objective of his system.

Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.


I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby 89Hen » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:34 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.


I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.

Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby kalm » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:37 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Eat me John. I asked you probably 7 years running and you always declined. You've worn out the invite.


I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.


Should polls just reflect single game performances or where teams finish the season?
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:41 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I have never declined. I just described what I thought would be necessary to do it and we never got around to it. I don't mind doing it at all. But to do it I think it fair to ask you to pick a human who you think is good and see how they do against a power rating system. Might as well be Sagarin as that's easily accessible.

Actually this would be a good time to start doing it as it should be about the time Sagarin has phased out of his Bayesian approach and gone to purely what has happened so far in this year's games.

You can do it yourself if you want. I think I remember you saying it's best to pick games involving top 25 teams. So you could start now through the end of the season picking all games involving top 25 FCS teams. Predict who will win each game and by how much. Then we can keep track of what the Sagarin system predicted for each of those games.

I mean, if you don't want to that's fine too. But I certainly don't mind seeing how it would turn out.

Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.


What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby dal4018 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:12 pm

89Hen wrote:After running the AGS Poll for so many years I've been completely uninterested in the I-AA polls the last several years. I'm sure it has something to do with with the Hens being absent, but it's really a case of being burnt out listening to the dummies who vote and don't really put in the time.

That said, here is the most recent STATS Poll.

1 James Madison (160) 5-0 4192 1
2 North Dakota State (8) 5-0 4038 2
3 Jacksonville State 4-1 3718 3
4 South Dakota 5-0 3629 4
5 Wofford 5-0 3484 5
6 Central Arkansas 4-1 3325 6
7 South Dakota State 4-1 3054 9
8 Youngstown State 3-2 2990 10
9 Sam Houston State 4-1 2924 11
10 Eastern Washington 4-2 2730 13
11 Villanova 4-2 2329 12
12 New Hampshire 4-1 2156 14
13 Richmond 3-2 2012 19
14 Western Illinois 4-1 1967 7
15 North Carolina A&T 6-0 1803 15
16 Elon 5-1 1696 8
17 Illinois State 4-1 1472 21
18 Weber State 4-1 1439 24
19 Samford 4-2 1251 NR
20 Grambling State 5-1 1038 23
21 Western Carolina 4-2 636 22
22 McNeese 5-1 592 16
23 Citadel 3-2 498 NR
24 Montana 4-2 251 20
25 North Carolina Central 4-1 226 18
Others: Dartmouth (211) , Albany (199) , Northern Arizona (136) , Stony Brook (127) , Nicholls (104) , Delaware (81) , Tennessee State (74) , Monmouth (44) , Eastern Illinois (25) , Columbia (23) , Liberty (19) ,Charleston Southern (18) , UNI (16) , Kennesaw State (16) , Colgate (9) , UT Martin (8) , Princeton (7) , Duquesne (7) , Mercer (7) , Austin Peay (6) , Alcorn State (6) , Furman (3) , UC Davis (3) , Saint Francis U (1)

NCCU survives Gardner Webb 24-17!!!!

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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:57 am

Just as a FYI I decided to compare predictions based on the AGS poll and Sagarin for games involving teams in the AGS top 25. There was only one disagreement. AGS poll favored New Hampshire and Sagarin favored Stony Brook. Stony Brook won.

Obviously that doesn't really show anything. I tentatively plan to continue doing it through the rest of the season. Not likely there will be enough disagreements between the two to allow for a "significant" difference.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby 89Hen » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:04 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Baloney John. You didn't like using the GoHens prediction game so you declined. Year after year after year.


What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.

:blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:46 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
What recall about talking about the GoHens way of doing it is just that you can't compare percentages of correct picks when you're only picking games involving top 25 teams to percentages correct when you're picking all games.

Also if you are going to compare model vs. human you have to pick who you say is the best human first then do a one on one comparison. You can't say you're going to have a contest going on with a bunch of people then pick the best person that had the best percentage after the fact.

But if you're going to pick who you think is the best person at GoHens ahead of time and say "OK, we're going to pit this one person against a power rating system (say Sagarin) before the picks start I am fine with that.

:blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:


As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby Ursus A. Horribilis » Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:06 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:


As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.

I think you decline a little bit with every post.
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Re: I-AA Polls

Postby 89Hen » Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:20 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :blah: :dunce: :tothehand:


As long as you understand that I have not declined to engage in comparison. I've written the kinds of stuff I wrote in this thread many times in the past. If you ever want to set something up so that we have a valid comparison let me know. I will not decline.

You have declined a dozen plus times. :tothehand:
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