Week 1 lines released for I-A games

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Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby BDKJMU » Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:20 pm

42 games JMU the only 1 favored as of now.

JMU @ ECU (+3.5)
UNI @ Iowa State (-9.5)
Alabama A&M @ UAB (-12.5)
EWU @ TX Tech (-12.5)
Houston Baptist @ Tx State (-14)
Fordham @ Army (-15.5)
YSU @ Pitt (-16)
Albany @ ODU (-17)
SELA @ UL Lafayette (-17)
CSU @ Miss State (-17)
NAU @ AZ (-18)
Lamar @ N Tex (-18.5)
W&M @ UVA (-19.5)
Grambling @ Tulane (-20)
Holy Cross @ U CT (-21)
Tenn St @ Ga St (-21)
Missouri State @ Missouri (-21.5)
S UT @ Oregon (-21.5)
SEMO @ Kansas (-22)
URI @ C Mich (-23.5)
Incarnate Word @ Fresno St (-23.5)
SFA @ SMU (-24)
N Dakota @ UT (-27.5)
Liberty @ Baylor (-28)
UCA @ K State (-28.5)
PSU @ BYU (-30.5)
VMI @ AF (-31)
Abilene Christian @ New Mex (-31)
Austin Peay @ Cincy (-34)
MT State @ Wash St (-34)
NCCU @ Duke (-35)
UC Davis @ San Diego St (-35)
Presbyterian @ WF (-35.5)
NW State @ La Tech (-35.5)
Elon @ Toldeo (-36.5)
Howard @ UNLV (-37.5)
Hampton @ Ohio (-38)
CCSU @ Syracuse (-38.5)
EKU @ WKU (-39.5)
Jackson State @ TCU (-48.5)
Bethune Cookman @ Miami (-49)
FAMU @ Arkansas (-49.5)
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby AZGrizFan » Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:44 pm

Teams that'll cover

JMU
UNI
EWU (possibly)
NoDak
Liberty
Abilene Christian
MSU (possibly)
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:05 pm

On 5dimes, Montana is only favored by 34 against Valpo. I'd sprint to take that cover even if the Griz aren't any better than last year.

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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby BlackFalkin » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:11 pm

Mvemjsunpx wrote:On 5dimes, Montana is only favored by 34 against Valpo. I'd sprint to take that cover even if the Griz aren't any better than last year.


So Montana has to win by 34/35 points? It's not easy to beat any team by 35 points.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby kalm » Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:06 am

AZGrizFan wrote:Teams that'll cover

JMU
UNI
EWU (possibly)
NoDak
Liberty
Abilene Christian
MSU (possibly)


How good will TTU be this year?
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby AZGrizFan » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:22 am

kalm wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:Teams that'll cover

JMU
UNI
EWU (possibly)
NoDak
Liberty
Abilene Christian
MSU (possibly)


How good will TTU be this year?


Better than last year. But the D will still give up 45-50 a game.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby Grizalltheway » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:03 am

BlackFalkin wrote:
Mvemjsunpx wrote:On 5dimes, Montana is only favored by 34 against Valpo. I'd sprint to take that cover even if the Griz aren't any better than last year.


So Montana has to win by 34/35 points? It's not easy to beat any team by 35 points.


Last year's 6-5 team beat not one but two teams by 60 points. Yes, they were awful teams, but so is Valpo.

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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby 89Hen » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:38 am

W&M @ UVA (-19.5)

Might be worth a wager. On W&M.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby CAA Flagship » Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:09 am

89Hen wrote:W&M @ UVA (-19.5)

Might be worth a wager. On W&M.

I was just about to post that one. All W&M has to do is score about 10 points to cover.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:01 am

BlackFalkin wrote:
Mvemjsunpx wrote:On 5dimes, Montana is only favored by 34 against Valpo. I'd sprint to take that cover even if the Griz aren't any better than last year.


So Montana has to win by 34/35 points? It's not easy to beat any team by 35 points.


Valpo's last 5 games against FCS scholarship teams:

2016 @ ILST: 50-13 (L)
2015 vs. SACHRT: 56-3 (L)
2015 @ EKU: 52-10 (L)
2014 @ WIU: 45-6 (L)
2013 @ UND: 69-10 (L)

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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby SuperHornet » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:47 pm

The following will WIN outright:

JMU over ECU
UNI over IA State
EWU over TX Tech
Fordham over Army
YSU over Pitt
Grambling over Tulane
TN State over GA State
SFA over SMU

The following will cover:

SELA vs. SW LA
B&M vs. VA
Holy Cross vs. UCONN
SEMO vs. Kansas
Liberty vs. Baylor
Kitties vs. Wazzu (of my COVER picks, this is likely the closest to an outright WIN.)

Many of those that I don't have in either category may go WORSE than the spread if the favorite doesn't take their foot off the gas, particularly the Manure Pile at SDSU and Presbyterian at Wake Forest....
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby BDKJMU » Thu Jun 22, 2017 3:33 pm

SuperHornet wrote:The following will WIN outright:

JMU over ECU
UNI over IA State
EWU over TX Tech
Fordham over Army
YSU over Pitt
Grambling over Tulane
TN State over GA State
SFA over SMU..


:dunce: You do this every year- pick a ridiculous # of I-AA to win over I-A, when the historical average is about 10%. Of the 42 games, I-AA will win 3 to 5 of them. No more than 1/2 of those you picked will win..
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:27 pm

Just looking at pairs of programs I'm familiar with I think I would take Southeastern Louisiana and Northwestern State and the points.

Heck the last time Northwestern State played Louisiana Tech in 2014 they won the game. Now they've got the line at Louisiana Tech by 35.5. That's an awful lot.

Louisiana Lafayette beat a 6-5 McNeese team by 8 last year. I watched the game and it was not a mismatch at all. To me 17 points is a lot to give for Louisiana Lafayette.

The JMU vs. ECU thing is interesting. If I'm recalling correctly I don't think ECU has ever lost to a I-AA/FCS school. And there have been times when I thought it might happen. Like when they played Appalachian State in 2009 or when they played defending I-AA national champ Georgia Southern in 1986. That was a Georgia Southern team that went on to win the national title again with Tracey Ham at the helm while Eastern Carolina finished 3-8. But East Carolina won 35-33.

I think if I had to lay my money down I'd take East Carolina and the points. I think if I had to bet even up I'd bet East Carolina will win. Not that I'd be surprised to see JMU win. But if I had to bet that's how I'd bet.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby BDKJMU » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:33 pm

JMU moved to -5.5..
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby anonymous#2 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:06 pm

WCU-Hawaii? Didn't see a line yet. GO CATS!

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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:46 pm

BDKJMU wrote:JMU moved to -5.5..


Yeah it's just one of those things where there have been a number of times over the years where I've looked at a I-AA/FCS vs. East Carolina game and thought that might be a game the I-AA/FCS should win and it's never happened.

Tulane's that way too only moreso in a sense. Tulane is an awful program. I mean AWFUL. And time after time I've looked at I-AA/FCS teams vs. Tulane matchups and thought, "Ok the (I-AA or FCS) is favored here." Then Tulane wins.

Like if it hadn't been for the history I'd be looking at Grambling playing Tulane this year as a possible FCS win. People around Grambling are thinking this year's team will be better than last year's team. And last year's team gave Arizona big problems.

But I've been down this road before.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue Jun 27, 2017 2:54 pm

There are some weird ones in there.

For example: Eastern Kentucky is a 39.5 point underdog to flipping Western Kentucky while Southern Utah is "only" a 21.5 point underdog to Oregon?

I mean, why would people think Eastern Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky is a bigger mismatch than Southern Utah vs. Oregon?

Sometimes these things just don't make sense.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:46 pm

Just bumping this so I don't lose sight of it and have to look for it. Want to be able to easily find it when week 1 comes and we have that thing with the countdown days until kickoff going on.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby CID1990 » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:13 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Just bumping this so I don't lose sight of it and have to look for it. Want to be able to easily find it when week 1 comes and we have that thing with the countdown days until kickoff going on.


Instead , you should be bumping threads where you say the economy wasn't responsible for Trump's win

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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby Pwns » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:06 pm

Take the FCS team
JMU @ ECU (+3.5)
UNI @ Iowa State (-9.5)
SELA @ UL Lafayette (-17)
MT State @ Wash St (-34)
EKU @ WKU (-39.5)
SFA @ SMU (-24)
W&M @ UVA (-19.5)

Take the FBS team
Alabama A&M @ UAB (-12.5)
Grambling @ Tulane (-20)

Push
EWU @ TX Tech (-12.5)
Houston Baptist @ Tx State (-14)
Fordham @ Army (-15.5)
YSU @ Pitt (-16)
Albany @ ODU (-17)
CSU @ Miss State (-17)
NAU @ AZ (-18)
Lamar @ N Tex (-18.5)
Holy Cross @ U CT (-21)
Tenn St @ Ga St (-21)
Missouri State @ Missouri (-21.5)
S UT @ Oregon (-21.5)
SEMO @ Kansas (-22)
URI @ C Mich (-23.5)
Incarnate Word @ Fresno St (-23.5)
N Dakota @ UT (-27.5)
Liberty @ Baylor (-28)
UCA @ K State (-28.5)
PSU @ BYU (-30.5)
VMI @ AF (-31)
Abilene Christian @ New Mex (-31)
Austin Peay @ Cincy (-34)
NCCU @ Duke (-35)
UC Davis @ San Diego St (-35)
Presbyterian @ WF (-35.5)
NW State @ La Tech (-35.5)
Elon @ Toldeo (-36.5)
Howard @ UNLV (-37.5)
Hampton @ Ohio (-38)
CCSU @ Syracuse (-38.5)
Jackson State @ TCU (-48.5)
Bethune Cookman @ Miami (-49)
FAMU @ Arkansas (-49.5)
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby dbackjon » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:36 pm

Take NAU to cover
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:51 pm

Ok what the heck I'll make picks based on gut feeling without doing a bunch of research:

JMU @ ECU (+3.5) ECU
UNI @ Iowa State (-9.5) Whew....UNI
Alabama A&M @ UAB (-12.5) UAB
EWU @ TX Tech (-12.5) TX Tech
Houston Baptist @ Tx State (-14) Tx State
Fordham @ Army (-15.5) Army
YSU @ Pitt (-16) Pitt
Albany @ ODU (-17) ODU
SELA @ UL Lafayette (-17) SELA
CSU @ Miss State (-17) Miss State
NAU @ AZ (-18) Whew...AZ
Lamar @ N Tex (-18.5) N Tex
W&M @ UVA (-19.5) UVA
Grambling @ Tulane (-20) Boy I'm tempted...but Tulane
Holy Cross @ U CT (-21) U CT
Tenn St @ Ga St (-21) Tempted again but Ga St
Missouri State @ Missouri (-21.5) Missouri
S UT @ Oregon (-21.5) Oregon
SEMO @ Kansas (-22) Kansas
URI @ C Mich (-23.5) C Mich
Incarnate Word @ Fresno St (-23.5) Fresno State
SFA @ SMU (-24) SMU
N Dakota @ UT (-27.5) Errrrrrr...UT
Liberty @ Baylor (-28) Baylor
UCA @ K State (-28.5) K State
PSU @ BYU (-30.5) PSU
VMI @ AF (-31) AF
Abilene Christian @ New Mex (-31) Abilene Christian
Austin Peay @ Cincy (-34) Cincy
MT State @ Wash St (-34) MT State
NCCU @ Duke (-35) Duke
UC Davis @ San Diego St (-35) UC Davis
Presbyterian @ WF (-35.5) WF
NW State @ La Tech (-35.5) NW State
Elon @ Toldeo (-36.5) Elon
Howard @ UNLV (-37.5) UNLV
Hampton @ Ohio (-38) Hampton
CCSU @ Syracuse (-38.5) CCSU
EKU @ WKU (-39.5) EKU
Jackson State @ TCU (-48.5) Jackson State
Bethune Cookman @ Miami (-49) Bethune Cookman
FAMU @ Arkansas (-49.5) FAMU (the lines are just too big with those last three...when it gets to be that much of a mismatch with lines THAT big it's just good to go with the underdog).
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:30 pm

Bump so this thread won't be buried under all the "X days until..." threads that happen every year at this time.
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby bluehenbillk » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:25 am

Love some week 1 games:

PSU -33 vs Akron
Texas -16.5 vs Maryland
Cincy -34 vs Austin Peay
Oregon -23.5 vs S Utah
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Re: Week 1 lines released for I-A games

Postby kalm » Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:02 am

AZGrizFan wrote:Teams that'll cover

JMU
UNI
EWU (possibly)
NoDak
Liberty
Abilene Christian
MSU (possibly)


I like MSU as well. The cats hung with a good Idaho team last year, and you'd like to think Murray has made some strides. The cats also have a couple of playmakers on defense.

You'd think after losing two in a row to the Big Sky that Leach would have them up for this one, but he's so damn weird and I don't think he works that way.
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