Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 93henfan » Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:52 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
93henfan wrote:So, 16 sounds perfect. No worthy team would be denied. Thanks Gil!


I think that if you start off by saying all leagues that want to participate get an automatic bid worthy teams could be denied in some years. I'm guessing that if we'd have had 10 automatic bids and only six at large bids in 2016, for instance, Youngstown State would not have made it in. For sure there's a good chance they wouldn't have made it in. And I think they certainly proved they were worthy of being in. Didn't quite get it all in the end. But they had a heck of a run.


Exactly. That's why I don't support auto-bids. Just pick the best 16 teams. Two or three teams will bitch about being left out, but they wouldn't have won the championship anyway.

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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:06 pm

93henfan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I think that if you start off by saying all leagues that want to participate get an automatic bid worthy teams could be denied in some years. I'm guessing that if we'd have had 10 automatic bids and only six at large bids in 2016, for instance, Youngstown State would not have made it in. For sure there's a good chance they wouldn't have made it in. And I think they certainly proved they were worthy of being in. Didn't quite get it all in the end. But they had a heck of a run.


Exactly. That's why I don't support auto-bids. Just pick the best 16 teams. Two or three teams will bitch about being left out, but they wouldn't have won the championship anyway.


Well, we'll always disagree on that because I think the first step is to create a situation where every team in a conference controls its own destiny regardless of who people think the best 16 or 20 or 24 or whatever teams are. If you're in a conference you know that if you win that conference you're in regardless of what people think.

Then after that I think it's ok to fill things out with teams that didn't win their conference but who people think belong.

"Best X teams" is always going to be an opinion. And I don't think any team should be excluded from a chance just because of opinion. I say "every team in a conference" because I really can't think of a good way to allow an independent to control its own destiny. But we can at least ensure that every time in a conference with some minimum required number of teams does.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 93henfan » Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:33 pm

Too many shitty conferences to eat up spots. Just get rid of auto-bids. Unless a MEAC team goes 11-0, 10-1, maybe 9-2 with a significant OOC FCS win, then they don't belong. The participation medal **** is stupid. Everyone knows it.

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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Mon May 01, 2017 7:37 am

BDKJMU wrote:
89Hen wrote:I'm too lazy to scroll up, but I was talking about the Ivy and one of the other two.


Which AGAIN would leave us at 12 AQ, still a 24 team field..

But they could take up to 4 spots, I'm sure the committee would love to have a Harvard and a Yale in and we've already seen they like a second place MEAC team. That means they need more slots.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Mon May 01, 2017 8:02 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Exactly. That's why I don't support auto-bids. Just pick the best 16 teams. Two or three teams will bitch about being left out, but they wouldn't have won the championship anyway.


Well, we'll always disagree on that because I think the first step is to create a situation where every team in a conference controls its own destiny regardless of who people think the best 16 or 20 or 24 or whatever teams are. If you're in a conference you know that if you win that conference you're in regardless of what people think.

Then after that I think it's ok to fill things out with teams that didn't win their conference but who people think belong.

"Best X teams" is always going to be an opinion. And I don't think any team should be excluded from a chance just because of opinion. I say "every team in a conference" because I really can't think of a good way to allow an independent to control its own destiny. But we can at least ensure that every time in a conference with some minimum required number of teams does.

Did a 7-4 St Francis really belong in the tournament last year? One of their wins was against a 3-8 DII team, so really they were more like 6-4. I don't care if you do win your conference. If you're getting beaten up OOC in I-AA (they didn't play any I-A games), you don't belong.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon May 01, 2017 5:31 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Well, we'll always disagree on that because I think the first step is to create a situation where every team in a conference controls its own destiny regardless of who people think the best 16 or 20 or 24 or whatever teams are. If you're in a conference you know that if you win that conference you're in regardless of what people think.

Then after that I think it's ok to fill things out with teams that didn't win their conference but who people think belong.

"Best X teams" is always going to be an opinion. And I don't think any team should be excluded from a chance just because of opinion. I say "every team in a conference" because I really can't think of a good way to allow an independent to control its own destiny. But we can at least ensure that every time in a conference with some minimum required number of teams does.

Did a 7-4 St Francis really belong in the tournament last year? One of their wins was against a 3-8 DII team, so really they were more like 6-4. I don't care if you do win your conference. If you're getting beaten up OOC in I-AA (they didn't play any I-A games), you don't belong.


Yes we will never agree because the single most important thing to me is to ensure that the greatest possible number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinions. An ideal system is one like the NFL where there is absolutely no selection through opinion. The rules for making the playoffs are mathematically prescribed ahead of time.

In college football I think the best way to ensure that the greatest number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinion is the conference automatic bid process. If you have that you do ensure that every team that is in a conference controls its own destiny. At the same time you get to be realistic in terms of the differences between conferences by having the at large selections.

But, again, the starting point for me is to establish a baseline through which the largest possible number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinion.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Tue May 02, 2017 1:17 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Did a 7-4 St Francis really belong in the tournament last year? One of their wins was against a 3-8 DII team, so really they were more like 6-4. I don't care if you do win your conference. If you're getting beaten up OOC in I-AA (they didn't play any I-A games), you don't belong.


Yes we will never agree because the single most important thing to me is to ensure that the greatest possible number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinions. An ideal system is one like the NFL where there is absolutely no selection through opinion. The rules for making the playoffs are mathematically prescribed ahead of time.

In college football I think the best way to ensure that the greatest number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinion is the conference automatic bid process. If you have that you do ensure that every team that is in a conference controls its own destiny. At the same time you get to be realistic in terms of the differences between conferences by having the at large selections.

But, again, the starting point for me is to establish a baseline through which the largest possible number of teams control their own destiny regardless of opinion.

You're comparing a league where there are 32 teams playing 16 games a piece, against 41% of the league. It's a non-starter John. Even with NFL teams playing so many teams in the league, there are many years where it's questionable that a division winner is worthy of a spot.

You realize that half the teams in I-AA don't play more than 1 game against a I-AA team not in their conference? That's why the computer models DO NOT WORK and why a team that plays in a inferior conference may not deserve a guaranteed spot.

Here is the entirety of the Pioneer OOC games against the rest of I-AA last year:

Dayton: 1-1 vs two NEC teams
San Diego: 0-1 vs Big Sky
Drake: 0-1 vs MVFC
Butler: 0-1 vs MVFC
Jax: 0-2 vs Big South/NEC
Marist: 0-3 vs Patriot/NEC
Valpo: 0-2 vs Patriot/MVFC
Morehead: 0-2 vs CAA/SoCon
Stetson: 1-1 vs Ivy/NEC
Davidson: 0-1 vs Patriot
Campbell: 0-1 vs Big South

So that's 2-16 vs the rest of I-AA with the two wins being Dayton over 2-9 Robert Morris and Stetson over 4-6 Brown. That should hit you like a frying pan over the head. The Pioneer DOES NOT DESERVE AN AUTO BID. If Dayton had a great year and beat a couple I-AA teams OOC, they can always get an at-large.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Tue May 02, 2017 2:17 pm

89Hen wrote:So that's 2-16 vs the rest of I-AA with the two wins being Dayton over 2-9 Robert Morris and Stetson over 4-6 Brown. That should hit you like a frying pan over the head. The Pioneer DOES NOT DESERVE AN AUTO BID. If Dayton had a great year and beat a couple I-AA teams OOC, they can always get an at-large.


Except the Pioneer champ won a playoff game. :?

And whether a conference "deserves" a bid based on play on the field has never been a determining factor for auto-bid status. If there aren't any auto-bids, then there's no reason to have conferences and everything gets decided by the committee. That's not a football division I want to pay attention to.

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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Tue May 02, 2017 2:31 pm

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
89Hen wrote:So that's 2-16 vs the rest of I-AA with the two wins being Dayton over 2-9 Robert Morris and Stetson over 4-6 Brown. That should hit you like a frying pan over the head. The Pioneer DOES NOT DESERVE AN AUTO BID. If Dayton had a great year and beat a couple I-AA teams OOC, they can always get an at-large.


Except the Pioneer champ won a playoff game. :?

And whether a conference "deserves" a bid based on play on the field has never been a determining factor for auto-bid status. If there aren't any auto-bids, then there's no reason to have conferences and everything gets decided by the committee. That's not a football division I want to pay attention to.

San Diego beat a team that wouldn't have been in a 16 team field and the ends don't justify the means.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Tue May 02, 2017 2:49 pm

Mvemjsunpx wrote:And whether a conference "deserves" a bid based on play on the field has never been a determining factor for auto-bid status. If there aren't any auto-bids, then there's no reason to have conferences and everything gets decided by the committee. That's not a football division I want to pay attention to.

BTW, you don't pay attention to I-A? I sure as hell do.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Tue May 02, 2017 3:02 pm

89Hen wrote:You're comparing a league where there are 32 teams playing 16 games a piece, against 41% of the league. It's a non-starter John. Even with NFL teams playing so many teams in the league, there are many years where it's questionable that a division winner is worthy of a spot.

You realize that half the teams in I-AA don't play more than 1 game against a I-AA team not in their conference? That's why the computer models DO NOT WORK and why a team that plays in a inferior conference may not deserve a guaranteed spot.

Here is the entirety of the Pioneer OOC games against the rest of I-AA last year:

Dayton: 1-1 vs two NEC teams
San Diego: 0-1 vs Big Sky
Drake: 0-1 vs MVFC
Butler: 0-1 vs MVFC
Jax: 0-2 vs Big South/NEC
Marist: 0-3 vs Patriot/NEC
Valpo: 0-2 vs Patriot/MVFC
Morehead: 0-2 vs CAA/SoCon
Stetson: 1-1 vs Ivy/NEC
Davidson: 0-1 vs Patriot
Campbell: 0-1 vs Big South

So that's 2-16 vs the rest of I-AA with the two wins being Dayton over 2-9 Robert Morris and Stetson over 4-6 Brown. That should hit you like a frying pan over the head. The Pioneer DOES NOT DESERVE AN AUTO BID. If Dayton had a great year and beat a couple I-AA teams OOC, they can always get an at-large.


Again, it depends on what your priority is. And my priority...what I want to see...is ensuring to the greatest extent possible that every team in the "universe" of the level of competition controls its own destiny.

BTW if I had my way I would also eliminate the NCAA selection committee and go to some agreed upon "automatic" mathematical way of selecting the at large bids. Also some pre selected way of seeding.

One thing I do NOT like is having a committee of people sit down after the season and use their after the fact opinions to select teams that are going to be in the tournament. Express the opinion BEFORE the season in terms of a mathematical formula for what it takes to be rated higher.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby Mvemjsunpx » Tue May 02, 2017 4:53 pm

89Hen wrote:
Mvemjsunpx wrote:And whether a conference "deserves" a bid based on play on the field has never been a determining factor for auto-bid status. If there aren't any auto-bids, then there's no reason to have conferences and everything gets decided by the committee. That's not a football division I want to pay attention to.

BTW, you don't pay attention to I-A? I sure as hell do.


I do, mainly because it's the biggest, but FCS is much more enjoyable. I would certainly pay a lot more attention if FBS had a 16+team playoff with every conference getting an auto-bid.

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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 7:15 am

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if I had my way I would also eliminate the NCAA selection committee and go to some agreed upon "automatic" mathematical way of selecting the at large bids. Also some pre selected way of seeding.

One thing I do NOT like is having a committee of people sit down after the season and use their after the fact opinions to select teams that are going to be in the tournament. Express the opinion BEFORE the season in terms of a mathematical formula for what it takes to be rated higher.

:dunce: :ohno: :ohno: Yeah, let's have computers decide. They are so good at ranking teams. You've ducked me for going on 10 years now to put your computers up against humans. Until you step up, you should shut up. :tothehand:
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 7:18 am

Mvemjsunpx wrote:
89Hen wrote:BTW, you don't pay attention to I-A? I sure as hell do.


I do, mainly because it's the biggest, but FCS is much more enjoyable. I would certainly pay a lot more attention if FBS had a 16+team playoff with every conference getting an auto-bid.

I think everyone would love a 16 team playoff, but Alabama vs Temple and Clemson vs Western Kentucky in the first round? :sleep:
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby kalm » Wed May 03, 2017 7:44 am

89Hen wrote:
Mvemjsunpx wrote:
I do, mainly because it's the biggest, but FCS is much more enjoyable. I would certainly pay a lot more attention if FBS had a 16+team playoff with every conference getting an auto-bid.

I think everyone would love a 16 team playoff, but Alabama vs Temple and Clemson vs Western Kentucky in the first round? :sleep:


You must skip the opening Th/F of March Madness. :)

BTW, the Torreros-Poly game was entertaining. Then they hung with the Bizon into the third quarter.

Hope that gives them a little taste and they continue to improve.

I remember when the WCC was a one bid, one and done conference. Then the Zags caught that fever, invested in a new arena, paid for their own TV contract (at first), and....
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 8:24 am

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:I think everyone would love a 16 team playoff, but Alabama vs Temple and Clemson vs Western Kentucky in the first round? :sleep:


You must skip the opening Th/F of March Madness. :)

BTW, the Torreros-Poly game was entertaining. Then they hung with the Bizon into the third quarter.

Hope that gives them a little taste and they continue to improve.

I remember when the WCC was a one bid, one and done conference. Then the Zags caught that fever, invested in a new arena, paid for their own TV contract (at first), and....

Comparing CF playoffs to basketball, NFL, anything else really, is folly and a waste of bandwidth. Watching Villanova/Mount St Marys is a fun thing to do on a Thursday when you know you're going to get another game in two days. Wasting a week on Bama/Temple is just that. A waste of a week. I'd rather not see Bama lose a RB or WR to injury in a nothing game.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby kalm » Wed May 03, 2017 8:33 am

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:
You must skip the opening Th/F of March Madness. :)

BTW, the Torreros-Poly game was entertaining. Then they hung with the Bizon into the third quarter.

Hope that gives them a little taste and they continue to improve.

I remember when the WCC was a one bid, one and done conference. Then the Zags caught that fever, invested in a new arena, paid for their own TV contract (at first), and....

Comparing CF playoffs to basketball, NFL, anything else really, is folly and a waste of bandwidth. Watching Villanova/Mount St Marys is a fun thing to do on a Thursday when you know you're going to get another game in two days. Wasting a week on Bama/Temple is just that. A waste of a week. I'd rather not see Bama lose a RB or WR to injury in a nothing game.


Fair points but I of course disagree.

Injuries are part of the game.

The opprtunity for upsarts to prove it on the field can lead to more programs upping their game. That's good for the brand.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 10:11 am

kalm wrote:
89Hen wrote:Comparing CF playoffs to basketball, NFL, anything else really, is folly and a waste of bandwidth. Watching Villanova/Mount St Marys is a fun thing to do on a Thursday when you know you're going to get another game in two days. Wasting a week on Bama/Temple is just that. A waste of a week. I'd rather not see Bama lose a RB or WR to injury in a nothing game.


Fair points but I of course disagree.

Injuries are part of the game.

The opprtunity for upsarts to prove it on the field can lead to more programs upping their game. That's good for the brand.

Alabama injuries so Temple can improve.... I thought you were done being an uber-liberal. :kisswink:

In reality, the rare opportunity to play in a game like this does very little for most of the programs that have that opportunity. Do you really think San Diego will be better moving forward?
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed May 03, 2017 2:17 pm

89Hen wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if I had my way I would also eliminate the NCAA selection committee and go to some agreed upon "automatic" mathematical way of selecting the at large bids. Also some pre selected way of seeding.

One thing I do NOT like is having a committee of people sit down after the season and use their after the fact opinions to select teams that are going to be in the tournament. Express the opinion BEFORE the season in terms of a mathematical formula for what it takes to be rated higher.

:dunce: :ohno: :ohno: Yeah, let's have computers decide. They are so good at ranking teams. You've ducked me for going on 10 years now to put your computers up against humans. Until you step up, you should shut up. :tothehand:


I haven't ducked you. I've just never coordinated with you prior to the season to do a proper test. A proper test would be to either take all games involving FCS teams after the point at which power rating systems have enough data to avoid using "Bayesian" techniques or taking a random sample of all such games then picking. No cherry picking.

It's quite a project. And there's a problem in that it's hard to say when the power rating systems quit using Bayesian techniques. Sagarin used to provide a notification of when his system got to that point but last year he didn't.

But I'd be willing to go ahead and start from the beginning of the season even though it'll mean including Bayesian estimates. But we would have to agree that you're going to have the humans pick either all the games each week or a random sample of games each week.

Like I said: A fair test would be quite a project but if you want to do it we'll do it.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed May 03, 2017 2:24 pm

89Hen wrote:Yeah, let's have computers decide. They are so good at ranking teams. You've ducked me for going on 10 years now to put your computers up against humans. Until you step up, you should shut up. :tothehand:


Separate post to get at the nut of the issue. Computers are just a tool. What I'm saying is that you establish the criteria BEFORE the season for ranking teams that do not win their conferences. It doesn't have to be one of the sophisticated power rating systems if you don't want that. But write down what the criteria are going to be. I don't see how you can do that without putting it in some kind of mathematical terms. You set out some set of criteria for what makes for team achievement. Then when the season is over you use that to automatically select the at large bids. Do NOT have a committee of people come back after the fact and select teams based on subjective opinions.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 3:25 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote:Yeah, let's have computers decide. They are so good at ranking teams. You've ducked me for going on 10 years now to put your computers up against humans. Until you step up, you should shut up. :tothehand:


Separate post to get at the nut of the issue. Computers are just a tool. What I'm saying is that you establish the criteria BEFORE the season for ranking teams that do not win their conferences. It doesn't have to be one of the sophisticated power rating systems if you don't want that. But write down what the criteria are going to be. I don't see how you can do that without putting it in some kind of mathematical terms. You set out some set of criteria for what makes for team achievement. Then when the season is over you use that to automatically select the at large bids. Do NOT have a committee of people come back after the fact and select teams based on subjective opinions.

:suspicious: So a math formula but not a complex one. I'd love to hear your proposal.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby 89Hen » Wed May 03, 2017 3:28 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
89Hen wrote: :dunce: :ohno: :ohno: Yeah, let's have computers decide. They are so good at ranking teams. You've ducked me for going on 10 years now to put your computers up against humans. Until you step up, you should shut up. :tothehand:


I haven't ducked you. I've just never coordinated with you prior to the season to do a proper test.

Your definition of proper is what's preventing you from doing it. You didn't like using the GoHens pool because it only had 25 points each week, but that's what we have and those are the teams we're talking about for the playoff spots. Who gives a rats ass if a computer might be able to pick the Valpo/Campbell game while a human might not be able to because they've never seen either play?
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby BDKJMU » Wed May 03, 2017 4:25 pm

89Hen wrote:
kalm wrote:
You must skip the opening Th/F of March Madness. :)

BTW, the Torreros-Poly game was entertaining. Then they hung with the Bizon into the third quarter.

Hope that gives them a little taste and they continue to improve.

I remember when the WCC was a one bid, one and done conference. Then the Zags caught that fever, invested in a new arena, paid for their own TV contract (at first), and....

Comparing CF playoffs to basketball, NFL, anything else really, is folly and a waste of bandwidth. Watching Villanova/Mount St Marys is a fun thing to do on a Thursday when you know you're going to get another game in two days. Wasting a week on Bama/Temple is just that. A waste of a week. I'd rather not see Bama lose a RB or WR to injury in a nothing game.


Ditto. College basketball has nearly 3 times as many games as college football, and can play games with only 1 day of rest in between. Football can't do that.
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JohnStOnge
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed May 03, 2017 4:33 pm

89Hen wrote: :suspicious: So a math formula but not a complex one. I'd love to hear your proposal.


I would evaluate predictive models and pick one that has had a top performance over time. Something like 10 years to make sure it's consistent.

I'm just saying that if you don't like predictive models come up with something else. But whatever is done should be done ahead of time. You set the system up then let the chips fall where they may according to the system when the time comes. If you have questions about the result tweak the system prior to the next season.

But the point is that you set out the criteria for deciding what makes team A more deserving than team B ahead of time before you know who team A and team B are. Then the criteria you set forth ahead of time determine the outcome without any human interference after the fact.
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Re: Permanent 12-Game Schedule Defeated

Postby JohnStOnge » Wed May 03, 2017 5:02 pm

89Hen wrote:Your definition of proper is what's preventing you from doing it. You didn't like using the GoHens pool because it only had 25 points each week, but that's what we have and those are the teams we're talking about for the playoff spots. Who gives a rats ass if a computer might be able to pick the Valpo/Campbell game while a human might not be able to because they've never seen either play?


I suppose we could try that. But another thing you'd have to do is either pick one person in the pool you consider to be good or do something like present some kind of consensus of the group each time. It has to be a one vs. one comparison with the one in each case being defined ahead of time.

The reason is that if you do something like say you're going to compare one power rating system to whoever does best among a group random chance favors whoever turns out best among the group.

To illustrate: Suppose the system is really better than any particular person in that they would beat any one particular person 60 percent of the time over an infinite number of games. If you compare 30 people to the system over 100 games there is a better than a 99% chance that at least one person will beat the system. There is a 95% chance that at least 7 will.

So you would need to pick your "champion" ahead of time; prior to the comparison. That or maybe do something like pick the team the majority of the people in the poll pick to win in each case.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
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But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star

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