6 D-I Wins and In?

[SuperHornet]

This will be a LONG road to hoe, even in a 24-team scenario. I'll consider everyone with a chance at 6 D-I wins here. Not many will get past me, and getting past me is nowhere NEAR enough to get past the committee. I fully recognize that being "eligible" is NOT tantamount to IN. So here goes.

Big Sky

Cal Poly - (+) W vs. potential seed MSU. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to SDSU. Loss to UCD. Three-game losing streak if U of San Diego is a loss. Must beat San Diego to get to 7 wins, probably out anyway.

Sac State - 6 wins with win vs. UCD. (+) Close loss to potential seed MSU. (-) Bad FBS loss. D-II game. Bad loss to ISU. Bad loss to CP. Bad loss to UM. OUT.

NAU - (+) Beat potential seed EWU. (-) Bad FBS loss. Losses to UNC/UND. Must beat SUU to get to 7 wins, probably out anyway.

Montana - (+) Close FBS loss. Loss to then-#1 NDSU. (-) Bad loss to CP. D-II game. POSSIBLE bid at 6 wins, more likely must beat MSU to reach 7 wins. Even that might not be enough.

ISU - 6 wins with win vs. Weber State. (+) Close loss to potential seed EWU. Blowout wins in most conference games. (-) 2 bad FBS losses. D-II game. Much improved this season, but OUT.

Big South

Liberty - (+) FBS win. (-) Bad FBS loss. D-II game. The FBS games cancel. The D-II game and the weak conference schedule dictate that Liberty MUST upset #1 CCU for the AQ to get in.

Chuck South - (+) Close FBS loss. (-) Bad losses to Presbyterian and CCU. 2 lower-division games. 3-game losing streak. Must upset FBS #10 UGA to reach 7 D-I wins.

Monmouth - 6 wins with win over G-W. (+) Blowout wins over DE St, RMU, and Columbia. (-) No signature wins. Bad losses to Chuck South and CCU. Four-game losing streak. OUT.

CAA

Delaware - (+) None. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to UNH. Loss to Sacred Heart. OUT.

Maine - 6 wins with win vs. UNH. (+) None. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to Villanova. 3-game losing streak. OUT.

Albany - (+) Blowout win vs. Columbia. (-) Bad losses to Richmond, UNH. 3-game losing streak. OUT.

MEAC

Morgan State - 6 wins with win vs. DE State. (+) Close FBS loss. (-) Bad losses to Villanova, NC A&T. OUT.

SC State - (+) Blowout win vs. Savannah State. (-) Bad FBS loss. D-II game. Bad loss to CCU. OUT.

MVC

SD State - (+) Blowout win vs. CP. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad losses to NDSU, IL State. Must beat U of South Dakota to reach 7 wins.

SIU - 6 wins with win vs. IL State. (+) Blowout wins vs. SEMO, U of South Dakota. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad losses to UNI, IN State, and NDSU. 3-game losing streak. OUT.

Northeast

Wagner - 6 wins with win vs. Bryant. (+) Shutout of RMU. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to Sacred Heart. D-II game. OUT.

OVC

EIU - 6 wins with win vs. UT-Martin. (+) Blowout wins vs. Austin Peay, SEMO, TN Tech, Murray State. (-) 2 bad FBS losses. 3-game losing streak. OUT.

Pioneer

Drake - 6 wins with win vs. Stetson. (+) Blowout win vs. Davidson. (-) No signature wins. D-II game. Bad NAIA loss. OUT.

SoCon

Western Carolina - 6 wins with win vs. FBS #1 AL. (+) Close FBS loss. Blowout win vs. VMI. (-) Bad loss to TN-Chattanooga. Loss to Presbyterian. 2 D-II games. Must upset FBS #1 AL.

Southland

UCA - (+) Close FBS loss. Blowout wins vs. Nicholls State, Houston Baptist, NW State. (-) Bad losses to SELA, Abilene Christian. Must beat SHSU to reach 7 wins.

SFA - (+) Blowout wins vs. Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, Houston Baptist. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to SHSU. Loss to Abilene Christian. OUT.

McNeese State - 6 wins with win vs. Lamar. (+) Close FBS loss. Blowout wins vs. PV A&M, Nicholls State, Incarnate Word. (-) Bad losses to SHSU, SFA, SELA. OUT.

Lamar - 6 wins with win vs. McNeese State. (+) Blowout wins vs. Nicholls State, Houston Baptist. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad losses to SHSU and SELA. 2 D-II games. OUT.

NW State - (+) FBS win. Blowout wins vs. Southern, Incarnate Word, Nicholls State. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to UCA. POSSIBLE with FBS win, but more likely must beat SFA to get to 7 wins.

So, out of all of that, most of these teams are OUT. Some few MIGHT get it done by getting to 7 D-I wins with victories on the last day of the season, but most in that situation will likely be out anyway. Only Liberty can lock in an AQ with a last-day win, and that will be mighty tough against the #1 team in the country. Only Montana and NW State have the ponies (due to conference schedule, and an FBS win in the case of NW State) to get in with 6 wins, and even they must likely get to 7. Those two are probably the only locks at 7 wins. Not a good deal to try to squeak in with 6....

[Sapper]

ISU beat a ranked Cal Poly even the ROOT sports announcers want ISU in the playoffs. The fact that ISU AD is on the selection committee might help.

[EWURanger]

ISU beat a ranked Cal Poly even the ROOT sports announcers want ISU in the playoffs. The fact that ISU AD is on the selection committee might help.

As much as I'd love to see it, ISU won't be in the playoffs this year. The 2 x FBS games and 2 x DII games combined with the losses @ EWU and MSU pretty much assured that.

I'd take a hard look at scheduling practices if I were the ISU AD. That definitely is not a good approach if you want your school to make the playoffs. Very little margin for error in that formula.

[biobengal]

I'd take a hard look at scheduling practices if I were the ISU AD. That definitely is not a good approach if you want your school to make the playoffs. Very little margin for error in that formula.

Scheduling will not change in the short term. In 2015 ISU will play two FBS games, at BYU and Boise State. A D2 game is yet to be determined. ISU will also play Cal Poly, EWU, Montana and Montana State. I hate these unbalanced schedules; of the CURRENT top 7 teams in the conference, ISU will play 6, only missing NAU. Many FCS programs would find it difficult to get 7 D1 wins with this schedule. Ultimately, I think it will be very, very hard to continue to build momentum at ISU in 2015.

Nonconference
Sept. 19 at Boise State
Oct. 24 at BYU
D2 game TBD

Conference
Sept. 26: vs. Portland State
Oct. 3: at Cal Poly
Oct. 10: at North Dakota
Oct. 17: vs. Eastern Washington
Oct. 31: at Sacramento State
Nov. 7: vs. Montana
Nov. 14: vs. Montana State
Nov. 21: at Weber State

[kalm]

Scheduling will not change in the short term. In 2015 ISU will play two FBS games, at BYU and Boise State. A D2 game is yet to be determined. ISU will also play Cal Poly, EWU, Montana and Montana State. I hate these unbalanced schedules; of the CURRENT top 7 teams in the conference, ISU will play 6, only missing NAU. Many FCS programs would find it difficult to get 7 D1 wins with this schedule. Ultimately, I think it will be very, very hard to continue to build momentum at ISU in 2015.

Nonconference
Sept. 19 at Boise State
Oct. 24 at BYU
D2 game TBD

Conference
Sept. 26: vs. Portland State
Oct. 3: at Cal Poly
Oct. 10: at North Dakota
Oct. 17: vs. Eastern Washington
Oct. 31: at Sacramento State
Nov. 7: vs. Montana
Nov. 14: vs. Montana State
Nov. 21: at Weber State

Why does the 3rd OOC have to be a DII?

[biobengal]

Scheduling will not change in the short term. In 2015 ISU will play two FBS games, at BYU and Boise State. A D2 game is yet to be determined. ISU will also play Cal Poly, EWU, Montana and Montana State. I hate these unbalanced schedules; of the CURRENT top 7 teams in the conference, ISU will play 6, only missing NAU. Many FCS programs would find it difficult to get 7 D1 wins with this schedule. Ultimately, I think it will be very, very hard to continue to build momentum at ISU in 2015.

Nonconference
Sept. 19 at Boise State
Oct. 24 at BYU
D2 game TBD

Conference
Sept. 26: vs. Portland State
Oct. 3: at Cal Poly
Oct. 10: at North Dakota
Oct. 17: vs. Eastern Washington
Oct. 31: at Sacramento State
Nov. 7: vs. Montana
Nov. 14: vs. Montana State
Nov. 21: at Weber State

Why does the 3rd OOC have to be a DII?

I agree, it doesn't.... a FCS home-home with UC Davis or UNC might be feasible, but ISU would then be looking at 4 home games in 2016. I'm working under the assumption that 2 FBS games are schedule for 2016 and beyond - we'll see.

A FCS buy game? Patriot, Pioneer, MEAC and SWAC are too far away and too expensive. A non-scholly FCS wouldn't come to ISU for what they could pay.

[biobengal]

This will be a LONG road to hoe, even in a 24-team scenario. I'll consider everyone with a chance at 6 D-I wins here. Not many will get past me, and getting past me is nowhere NEAR enough to get past the committee. I fully recognize that being "eligible" is NOT tantamount to IN. So here goes.

Big Sky

Cal Poly - (+) W vs. potential seed MSU. (-) Bad FBS loss. Bad loss to SDSU. Loss to UCD. Three-game losing streak if U of San Diego is a loss. Must beat San Diego to get to 7 wins, probably out anyway.

Sac State - 6 wins with win vs. UCD. (+) Close loss to potential seed MSU. (-) Bad FBS loss. D-II game. Bad loss to ISU. Bad loss to CP. Bad loss to UM. OUT.

NAU - (+) Beat potential seed EWU. (-) Bad FBS loss. Losses to UNC/UND. Must beat SUU to get to 7 wins, probably out anyway.

Montana - (+) Close FBS loss. Loss to then-#1 NDSU. (-) Bad loss to CP. D-II game. POSSIBLE bid at 6 wins, more likely must beat MSU to reach 7 wins. Even that might not be enough.

ISU - 6 wins with win vs. Weber State. (+) Close loss to potential seed EWU. Blowout wins in most conference games. (-) 2 bad FBS losses. D-II game. Much improved this season, but OUT.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.... IF... SUU beats NAU, MSU beats Montana, Sac beats Davis, Poly beats San Diego and ISU beats Weber.... ISU might get a playoff look.

[Ibanez]

Charleston Southern has ZERO chance.

[89Hen]

Can't believe anyone would read anything Horney had to say on playoff chances.

[clenz]

I'll take this and put what I assume the results this weekend will be

Big Sky

Cal Poly - possible

Sac State - not even close

NAU - less than 10% chance...0 if they don't get the auto

Montana - 50/50

ISU - 0% chance

Big South

Liberty - 0% chance without the auto

Chuck South - 0% chance

Monmouth - 0% chance

CAA

Delaware - 10% chance

Maine - 10% chance

Albany - 0% chance

MEAC

Morgan State - >1% chance

SC State - >1% chance

MVC

SD State - 40% chance

SIU - 0% chance

Northeast

Wagner - 0% chance

OVC

EIU - 0 % chance

Pioneer

Drake - 0% chance

SoCon

Western Carolina - 0% chance

Southland

UCA - 0% chance

SFA - >15% chance

McNeese State - >5% chance

Lamar - 0% chance

NW State - 0% chance

[Ibanez]

Can't believe anyone would read anything Horney had to say on playoff chances.

You don't like to laugh?

[andy7171]

Can't believe anyone would read anything Horney had to say on playoff chances.

This.

[bucs90]

Charleston Southerns loss to Presbyterian kills them.

If their only losses were by 1 pt to Vandy, to Georgia and #1 Coastal...and the finished 9-3..I think theyd get it.

The week after the heartbreaking loss to Vandy...CSU laid a turd and lost to PC. Minds were still in Nashville. And it costed them. But...PC is much better than past teams.

[SuperHornet]

Charleston Southern has ZERO chance.

They're probably in if they upset UGA. But the odds of THAT happening? Slim to none, and Slim just walked out the door....

[SuperHornet]

My scenarios were pretty much based on the premise that the teams involved would finish with six D-I wins. As you can see, VERY few (if any) would have the schedule that would get them in with six counters. A few have the opportunity to get to SEVEN wins, and that is probably the basis for what few of even those get in. As far as overall chances go (including the likelihood of reaching seven wins for those who CAN get in with seven (but not six), clenzy pretty much knocks it out of the park here.

[Ibanez]

Charleston Southern has ZERO chance.

They're probably in if they upset UGA. But the odds of THAT happening? Slim to none, and Slim just walked out the door....

So like I said, Zero chance.

[Mvemjsunpx]

They're probably in if they upset UGA. But the odds of THAT happening? Slim to none, and Slim just walked out the door....

So like I said, Zero chance.

I think CSU is playing the best of the "outside shot" teams, but having to play Ugga at the end just kills them.