Bleacher Report FCS/FBS Upset Alerts

[JohnStOnge]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2117 ... ts-in-2014" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Iowa (Northern Iowa)
Iowa State (North Dakota State)
Michigan State (Jacksonville State)
Nebraska (McNeese State)
Syracuse (Villanova)
Toledo (New Hampshire)
Tulane (Southeastern Louisiana)
Virginia Tech (William & Mary)
Washington (Eastern Washington)
West Virginia (Towson)

Only thing is I don't think Southeastern Louisiana beating Tulane would be an upset. I think that at this point Southeastern Louisiana should be considered the favorite in that game.

[clenz]

They mention Iowa, for UNI, but not Hawaii...


Apparently that isn't considered an upset

[SuperHornet]

I'm not so certain IA State should be considered an upset for NDSU.

I guess Sac State over 1-11/0-9 Cal isn't an "upset," either....

[SDHornet]

We're not beating Cal.

[Grizalltheway]

Montana at Wyoming should definitely be on this list. BR being BR.

[JohnStOnge]

Montana at Wyoming should definitely be on this list. BR being BR.

At first I thought maybe it's not on there because they seem to focus on "overlooking" potential and maybe Wyoming didn't have games that would be big to them coming up but then I saw that the Cowboys' next two games are Air Force and Oregon. So yeah you're right that one should be on the list. In fact based on last year you'd think that one is kind of in the same ballpark as Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane where the FBS school maybe should be considered the underdog.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Liberty over North Carolina definitely would be a candidate for this list.

[Aho Old Guy]

Liberty over North Carolina definitely would be a candidate for this list.

Jesus don't like killing ...
Nor delusional football fans smoking crack.

So, you should put down the pipe, pray for torrential rain, and punt away from Ryan Switzer. Otherwise, it's a track meet and Carolina is 3-deep in athletes at all skill positions. Be happy if you hold them under 60.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN4Sia8jMAs[/youtube]

[SuperHornet]

We're not beating Cal.

We weren't going to beat Colorado or OSU, either....

[93henfan]

Liberty over North Carolina definitely would be a candidate for this list.

Jesus don't like killing ...
Nor delusional football fans smoking crack.

So, you should put down the pipe, pray for torrential rain, and punt away from Ryan Switzer. Otherwise, it's a track meet and Carolina is 3-deep in athletes at all skill positions. Be happy if you hold them under 60.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN4Sia8jMAs[/youtube]

Yeah, I was about to say, this isn't the UNC of ten years ago.

[CAA Flagship]

Jesus don't like killing ...
Nor delusional football fans smoking crack.

So, you should put down the pipe, pray for torrential rain, and punt away from Ryan Switzer. Otherwise, it's a track meet and Carolina is 3-deep in athletes at all skill positions. Be happy if you hold them under 60.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN4Sia8jMAs[/youtube]

Yeah, I was about to say, this isn't the UNC of ten years ago.

You can say THAT again.

[bandl]

Yeah, I was about to say, this isn't the UNC of ten years ago.

You can say THAT again.

This isn't the UNC of ten years ago.

Take that THIRST and recognize!!

[93henfan]

You can say THAT again.

This isn't the UNC of ten years ago.

Take that THIRST and recognize!!

ODU went from THIRST to worst!

[Skjellyfetti]

Liberty over North Carolina definitely would be a candidate for this list.

and/or Appalachian

[bjtheflamesfan]

I considered that one Skyjellyfetti. I went with UNC because that's a power conference team. App would be an upset because they are a first year FBS program.

[JALMOND]

Portland State over Oregon State. Beavs struggle against the Big Sky.

[89Hen]

Michigan State (Jacksonville State)
Nebraska (McNeese State)

No chance.

[JohnStOnge]

Michigan State (Jacksonville State)
Nebraska (McNeese State)

No chance.

Never any such thing as 0 probability. Close. But never there. Can't really do it for this year but just for fun I estimated probabilities as of the end of LAST year if pairs of teams had played. This is how it turned out:

Jacksonville State over Michigan State: 1 chance in 49
McNeese State over Nebraska: 1 chance in 13

This year will be somewhat different but I think the impression once power ratings I can use come out will be similar. Jacksonville State beating Michigan State will be in the "close to no chance" category but McNeese beating Nebraska is going to be in the "bigger I-AA/FCS over I-A/FBS upsets have happened" category.

For example, if I did things the same way and looked at James Madison vs. Virginia Tech as of the end of 2009 in order to get a feel for the odds of their 2010 game I'd have estimated that James Madison had 1 chance in 29 of winning the game.

Here's what I would've gotten doing the same thing about this time of year prior to other games that turned out to be I-AA/FCS upsets:

McNeese State over South Florida 2013: 1 chance in 3
Eastern Washington over Oregon State 2013: 1 chance in 12
North Dakota State over Kansas State 2013: 1 chance in 5
Appalachian State over Michigan 2007: 1 chance in 9

I predict that what you're going to see when lines come out and somebody puts some kinds of lines on these games what you'll see is that the line on Jacksonville State at Michigan State is going to be so big that it'll be hard to find instances in which bigger underdogs have won. Probably will be some but they'll be rare. But the line on McNeese State at Nebraska will be such that you'll be able to say you have a handful of upsets each year such that underdogs of that magnitude upset the favorites.

[JohnStOnge]

This is an interesting article related to the concept I was talking about:

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There's a table at the bottom that shows how often underdogs in various point spread ranges have done. I think it's pretty consistent with what I'm thinking. Right now, for instance, I think McNeese will be in the 17.5 through 24 point underdog range at Nebraska. I'm thinking something near the upper end of that range.

Jacksonville State, I think, will most likely be in that 31+ point underdog range.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Portland State over Oregon State. Beavs struggle against the Big Sky.

Seems implausible, but they did lose to a Sac State team that ended up 4-7.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Portland State over Oregon State. Beavs struggle against the Big Sky.

Seems implausible, but they did lose to a Sac State team that ended up 4-7.

They were also a much weaker team then.

[ASUG8]

[89Hen]

No chance.

Never any such thing as 0 probability. Close. But never there.

There's a chance for winning powerball too. Michigan State and Nebraska by 30+.

[JohnStOnge]

Never any such thing as 0 probability. Close. But never there.

There's a chance for winning powerball too. Michigan State and Nebraska by 30+.

The chances of winning the Power Ball are MUCH smaller.

I would not be surprised to see Michigan State favored by 30+ over over Jacksonville State but I expect the Nebraska/McNeese State line to be in the low to mid 20s. We'll see.

[bjtheflamesfan]

1) that's really something that they refer to app state that way on their locker room schedule
That said...
2) they are gonna want to pull a Barry Switzer and hang half a hundred on you guys