2020 Election Predictions

[GannonFan]

So you're saying 400 is out of reach then.

[Baldy]

Prediction - Trump will sue no matter win or lose. Then bitch and moan about whatever slight he's perceived. He loves to play the victim.

Do you Biden and the Donks will sue if he loses?

[Baldy]

Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon.

Welcome to shit posting!

...and he reeled one in on his first cast.

[Gil Dobie]

So you're saying 400 is out of reach then.

The light blue and light red are close races, could go either way.

[Ibanez]

Prediction - Trump will sue no matter win or lose. Then bitch and moan about whatever slight he's perceived. He loves to play the victim.

Do you Biden and the Donks will sue if he loses?

It depends on where and what the margin is. But I can see Trump suing regardless.

[kalm]

Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon.

Welcome to shit posting!

Next thing you know, Ganny will be using “hell” instead of “heck”.

This place eventually corrupts all who enter.

[kalm]

Welcome to shit posting!

Next thing you know, Ganny will be using “hell” instead of “heck”.

This place eventually corrupts all who enter.

[89Hen]

Given how the rest of 2020 has gone.

[Ibanez]

Given how the rest of 2020 has gone.

FENCE SITTER!

[89Hen]

FENCE SITTER!

[Ibanez]

Anyone doing anything special tomorrow? We're heading to a friends house to watch the returns....we have a standing "family" dinner every Tuesday night so we'll do that, our daughters will have a sleep over and we'll just hang out.


We usually watch the returns, or have it on in the background while we're doing more important things...like sleeping.

[Gil Dobie]

Anyone doing anything special tomorrow? We're heading to a friends house to watch the returns....we have a standing "family" dinner every Tuesday night so we'll do that, our daughters will have a sleep over and we'll just hang out.


We usually watch the returns, or have it on in the background while we're doing more important things...like sleeping.

Taking a half day and going for a bike ride

[kalm]

Anyone doing anything special tomorrow? We're heading to a friends house to watch the returns....we have a standing "family" dinner every Tuesday night so we'll do that, our daughters will have a sleep over and we'll just hang out.


We usually watch the returns, or have it on in the background while we're doing more important things...like sleeping.

Physical therapy in the morning then talking to the IRS (again) regarding payroll taxes after being on hold for 2 hours (again).

Probably tie up some flies and practice Wish You Here on the geetar.

[BDKJMU]

BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45

Wrong on both counts.
-Rasumussen has Biden up 3.
-And that would be Trafalger, the only poll that had Trump winning PA and MI in 2016, has Trump up 2 in PA. Insider Advantage also has Trump up 2 in PA, and Susquehanna has Trump up 1.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6861.html

[Ibanez]

BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45

Wrong on both counts.
-Rasumussen has Biden up 3.
-And that would be Trafalger, the only poll that had Trump winning PA and MI in 2016, has Trump up 2 in PA. Insider Advantage also has Trump up 2 in PA, and Susquehanna has Trump up 1.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6861.html

So he’s up within the MoE? This will be super close. Trump is already laying the groundwork to challenge. Wanna make a bet that if he loses in a landslide that he’ll sue, pout, throw a hissy fit and make the translation difficult?


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[AZGrizFan]

If that isn’t “Ridin’ with Biden’s” wet dream I don’t know what is.

[JohnStOnge]

I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.

The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.

If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.

If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.

So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.

And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.

And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.

[AZGrizFan]

I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.

The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.

If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.

If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.

So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.

And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.

And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.

Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.

[JohnStOnge]

I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.

The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.

If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.

If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.

So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.

And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.

And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.

Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.

I doubt that's really happening. But, regardless, the point is that the unusually high proportion of votes cast by mail combined with the fact that Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail means that the effort to predict what will happen based on voter intent is confounded. The voter can fully intend to vote for a candidate then have their vote not counted. That is an additional source of error that is much more prominent than it has been in the past.

Let's hope it doesn't mean Trump wins because this country really needs him out. But I do think it increases the probability that he will win.

[Ibanez]

I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.

The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.

If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.

If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.

So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.

And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.

And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.

Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.

Also hard to count when the Trump administration was trying to delay delivery and is suing to not count some votes. There’s plenty of suspicion and shenanigans from both parties and their lemmings.


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[AZGrizFan]

Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.

I doubt that's really happening. But, regardless, the point is that the unusually high proportion of votes cast by mail combined with the fact that Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail means that the effort to predict what will happen based on voter intent is confounded. The voter can fully intend to vote for a candidate then have their vote not counted. That is an additional source of error that is much more prominent than it has been in the past.

Let's hope it doesn't mean Trump wins because this country really needs him out. But I do think it increases the probability that he will win.

Yeah, I doubt it too. There’s only DOCUMENTED EVIDENCE of ballots being thrown in the trash, in the ditch, etc, etc. Your TDS has now rendered you completely blind, John.

[css75]

I don’t get around as much as I used to, but it is reassuring thatJSO is still as loony as ever, claiming to be a conservative yet votes for ultra Libs,

[Gil Dobie]

If that isn’t “Ridin’ with Biden’s” wet dream I don’t know what is.

This is a prediction thread, not who you want to win.

[BDKJMU]

As you said on election morning 2016..
viewtopic.php?p=1091685#p1091685

[Gil Dobie]

As you said on election morning 2016..
viewtopic.php?p=1091685#p1091685

So I won't quit my day job, bfd.