2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

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2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Col Hogan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:46 am

For ease of tracking, let’s keep all polls in a single thread...
Last edited by Col Hogan on Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Postby Col Hogan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:49 am

First poll for this thread is a 2020 General Election poll from Optimus...

Top Line Results:

Head to Head Ballot Tests:

Joe Biden 50%, Donald Trump 43%, undecided 7%
Donald Trump 45%, Kamala Harris 44%, undecided 12%

Three-way Ballot Tests:

Joe Biden 45%, Donald Trump 41%, Howard Schultz 6%, undecided 8%
Donald Trump 42%, Kamala Harris 38%, Howard Schultz 7%, undecided 13%
Donald Trump 42%, Elizabeth Warren 39%, Howard Schultz 8%, undecided 11%
Donald Trump 42%, Beto O’Rourke 33%, Howard Schultz 9%, undecided 16%


https://0ptimus.com/2020-general-election-survey-memo/
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:27 pm

Col Hogan wrote:For ease of tracking, let’s keep all polls in a single thread...


Let’s keep JSO in a single thread. :nod:
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby AZGrizFan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:10 pm

So after all their crowing about the evils of the old white man, they still want an old white man over all the other choices...
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:25 pm

It does not look like Optimus is a high quality poll. 538 has its average simple average error at 11.8 points. That is huge. It's a C- rated poll. To contrast, the poll I look at as best is the ABC News/Washington Post poll. It is an A+ rated poll. Its simple average error is 2.9 points.

The 11.8 simple average error number is based on only 5 polls. But that's bad regardless. That means that among 5 polls Optimus did such that 538 could compare its results to what actually happened they were off ON AVERAGE by 11.8 percentage points. That's really bad.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby CID1990 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:36 pm

Col Hogan -

Let me say that trolling JSO is not really a feat
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Col Hogan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:51 pm

CID1990 wrote:Col Hogan -

Let me say that trolling JSO is not really a feat


I thought I could limit the War and Peace-esque diatribes that are on the horizon to a single thread...

:roll:
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby 93henfan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:03 pm

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:52 am

93henfan wrote:Image


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:10 am

Col Hogan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Col Hogan -

Let me say that trolling JSO is not really a feat


I thought I could limit the War and Peace-esque diatribes that are on the horizon to a single thread...

:roll:


Not possible. Polling data have application in just about any political discussion as well as to a number of other topic areas.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:34 am

BTW, at this point one does have to be careful about an Optimus poll. C- is the lowest grade I've seen by 538 for any poll I've had occasion to discuss. 538 apparently had only 5 instances to use for evaluation so even if the simple average error was small one would have to wait for a larger sample size. But the simple average error is huge. Even with such a small sample size that's a big red flag. I

There was a Public Policy Polling poll conducted January 19th through 21st that had Joe Biden up by 12 percentage points (53 - 41%) and Kamala Harris up on him by 7 percentage points (48 - 41%) in two way races. The linked Optimus poll was conducted January 30 through February 1 and it has Biden up on Trump by 7 percentage points (50 - 43%) and Harris down to him by 1 percentage point (44 - 45%).

It's possible that things could change that much in 9 to 11 days but not likely. Public Policy Polling has a B grade from 538 and a 4.9 point simple average error based on 411 instances in which 538 was able to compare poll estimates to actual results. If one is going to choose between which poll is likely to be closer to the truth it would be wise to choose Public Policy Polling.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Gil Dobie » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:20 pm

Amy Klobuchar announces

Today in Minneapolis on the mighty Mississippi River, with thousands of friends and supporters at my side, I announced that I’m running for President of the United States. As I said just a few moments ago, we must heal the heart of our democracy and renew our commitment to the common good.

I’m running because I believe we can be a nation governed not by chaos -- but from opportunity. The kind of opportunity my grandpa -- who worked 1,500 feet underground in the mines in Northern Minnesota -- gave my family when he saved money in a coffee can in the basement to send my dad to college. The kind of opportunity my mom, a schoolteacher and a proud union member, gave me when she taught me to live with purpose. The kind of opportunity my dad, a newspaperman, gave me to always look for life’s adventures and never shy away from adversity.

I’m running because we’re tired of divisive politics. We’re fed up with the shutdowns and the showdowns, the gridlock and the grandstanding. Today, we say enough is enough.

I’m running because we need to rise to the occasion and meet the challenges of our day. For too long, leaders in Washington have sat on the sidelines while others try to figure out what to do about our changing economy and its impact on our lives, what to do about the disruptive nature of new technologies, income inequality, the political and geographic divides, the changing climate, the tumult in our world. Let’s stop seeing those obstacles as obstacles on our path. Let’s see those obstacles as our path.

I’m asking you to join us on this campaign. It’s a homegrown one. I don’t have a political machine. I don’t come from money. And I won’t take a single dollar from corporate PACs or federal lobbyists. But what I do have is this: I have grit, I have family, I have friends, and I have all of you.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby TheDancinMonarch » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:27 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:Amy Klobuchar announces

Today in Minneapolis on the mighty Mississippi River, with thousands of friends and supporters at my side, I announced that I’m running for President of the United States. As I said just a few moments ago, we must heal the heart of our democracy and renew our commitment to the common good.

I’m running because I believe we can be a nation governed not by chaos -- but from opportunity. The kind of opportunity my grandpa -- who worked 1,500 feet underground in the mines in Northern Minnesota -- gave my family when he saved money in a coffee can in the basement to send my dad to college. The kind of opportunity my mom, a schoolteacher and a proud union member, gave me when she taught me to live with purpose. The kind of opportunity my dad, a newspaperman, gave me to always look for life’s adventures and never shy away from adversity.

I’m running because we’re tired of divisive politics. We’re fed up with the shutdowns and the showdowns, the gridlock and the grandstanding. Today, we say enough is enough.

I’m running because we need to rise to the occasion and meet the challenges of our day. For too long, leaders in Washington have sat on the sidelines while others try to figure out what to do about our changing economy and its impact on our lives, what to do about the disruptive nature of new technologies, income inequality, the political and geographic divides, the changing climate, the tumult in our world. Let’s stop seeing those obstacles as obstacles on our path. Let’s see those obstacles as our path.

I’m asking you to join us on this campaign. It’s a homegrown one. I don’t have a political machine. I don’t come from money. And I won’t take a single dollar from corporate PACs or federal lobbyists. But what I do have is this: I have grit, I have family, I have friends, and I have all of you.


When Democrats say "our democracy", they refer only to when they win and get what they want. This fact negates her statement.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby 93henfan » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:28 pm

Ivytalk wrote:Joe borrowed that car from Charlie Cawley.


Charlie must have told him to grab whichever one he wanted from the 16-car garage he had built with money siphoned from MBNA. Ah, the good old days when Delaware was a financial powerhouse and the livin' was easy.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm

Gil Dobie wrote:Amy Klobuchar announces


I actually like her the best of any of the Democrats to have announced so far as well as any of the Democrats that have been mentioned as possibilities. I've watched the way she handles herself in Committee hearings and such. She's a grownup. She asks real questions. She keeps her cool and she does not demagogue. She comes off as very professional.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:38 pm

Since this the poll thread I came here to talk about how I shake my head at the way notable conservatives dismiss polls UNTIL they see ONE poll that flatters their point of view. Heard that with Rush Limbaugh today.

BIG deal that Trump now has a 52% job approval rating! Rasumussen poll, of course. Never mind that if you look at the realclearpolitics average of polls his approval rating is 42.4%. Oh, and then there's how the Rasmussen poll just finished doing in the generic house ballot thing. It said Republicans would win the overall combined vote in Congressional races by 1 percentage point (point estimate). And they lost by 8.4 percentage points. It was 9.4 percentage points off.

And yes I know Rasmussen got lucky and had Clinton by 2 in 2016. But historically it's awful. Like it had Romney by 1 in 2012 and Obama won by 3.9. It's not a high quality poll. You are not going to see high quality polls like the ABC News/Washington Post poll be off by 9.4 percentage points in a national assessment.

But it told Rush Limbaugh what he wanted to hear.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby CID1990 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:43 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:Amy Klobuchar announces


I actually like her the best of any of the Democrats to have announced so far as well as any of the Democrats that have been mentioned as possibilities. I've watched the way she handles herself in Committee hearings and such. She's a grownup. She asks real questions. She keeps her cool and she does not demagogue. She comes off as very professional.


I’ve already said she’s Hillary Clinton without the dishonesty

not surprising that you like her

But in all other aspects she’s Hillary.. which is why she doesn’t get the nomination


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Baldy » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:54 am

JohnStOnge wrote:
Gil Dobie wrote:Amy Klobuchar announces


I actually like her the best of any of the Democrats to have announced so far as well as any of the Democrats that have been mentioned as possibilities. I've watched the way she handles herself in Committee hearings and such. She's a grownup. She asks real questions. She keeps her cool and she does not demagogue. She comes off as very professional.


Amy Klobuchar Responds To Reports Of Mistreating Staff: ‘I Can Be Tough’

“Yes, I can be tough, and yes I can push people,” Klobuchar told reporters following her rally at Minneapolis’ Boom Island Park. “I have high expectations for myself, I have high expectations for the people that work for me, but I have high expectations for this country.”

She added: “In the end, there are so many great stories of our staff that have been with me for years.”

Accounts from several of her former employees that surfaced in recent days describe a long history of Klobuchar constantly berating her staff and creating a hostile work environment. At least three people have withdrawn from consideration to lead her 2020 campaign, in part because of her behavior as a boss, HuffPost reported on Wednesday.

In interviews with HuffPost and BuzzFeed, former staffers said Klobuchar regularly chastised and shouted at her employees over minor errors, berated them in late-night emails and sometimes threw objects, leaving some workers often in tears. Others said she would task them with her personal errands, such as washing dishes at her home, which violates Senate ethics rules.

Klobuchar’s mistreatment of staff caused then-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to privately reprimand her in 2015, HuffPost reported, citing multiple sources.

Still, Klobuchar has been plagued by one of the highest staff turnover rates in the Senate. When she first ran for the Senate in 2006, her aides wrote a memo outlining duties for the staffer in charge of her personal needs and logistics. “... DON’T interupt [sic] her unless ABSOLUTELY necessary and be careful when trying to calm her down,” it warned.

During her 2006 campaign, Klobuchar was serving as the Hennepin County attorney, and the president of the union representing many of her employees claimed she had “created a hostile work environment” and “severely damaged the morale of the office.” At the time, Klobuchar and her staff said that characterization was part of a broader backlash over salary negotiations.

“I’ve known about [Klobuchar’s mistreatment of staff] for quite some time,” said 69-year-old Bruce Olson, a longtime Minneapolis resident who attended the rally. “The rumor around here is that working for her is hell.”


The bitch is just like The Hildabeast. :?

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Ibanez » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:11 am

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW, at this point one does have to be careful about an Optimus poll. C- is the lowest grade I've seen by 538 for any poll I've had occasion to discuss. 538 apparently had only 5 instances to use for evaluation so even if the simple average error was small one would have to wait for a larger sample size. But the simple average error is huge. Even with such a small sample size that's a big red flag. I

There was a Public Policy Polling poll conducted January 19th through 21st that had Joe Biden up by 12 percentage points (53 - 41%) and Kamala Harris up on him by 7 percentage points (48 - 41%) in two way races. The linked Optimus poll was conducted January 30 through February 1 and it has Biden up on Trump by 7 percentage points (50 - 43%) and Harris down to him by 1 percentage point (44 - 45%).

It's possible that things could change that much in 9 to 11 days but not likely. Public Policy Polling has a B grade from 538 and a 4.9 point simple average error based on 411 instances in which 538 was able to compare poll estimates to actual results. If one is going to choose between which poll is likely to be closer to the truth it would be wise to choose Public Policy Polling.

C-?! The vaunted Rasmussen is only a C+!


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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby JohnStOnge » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:05 pm

Just a reminder of how bad Trump is at developing overall public support. Remember the economy is doing pretty well right now. I think it's a stretch to ascribe that to Trump but it doesn't matter. The public usually gives whoever is in office credit. Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren has had just a horrible time. All that Native American ancestry stuff. Plus she's stiff as a board. She just doesn't have "it" when it comes to public presentation.

Yet take a look at the history of polling for the theoretical head to head matchup between Warren and Trump below. There are zero instances in which Trump prevailed among poll respondents. A couple of ties. But never Trump up. Warren won among respondents by 6 percentage points in the most recent poll conducted February 14 through 16.

I should say that is a "statistical tie." The margin of error for the difference is 6.6 percentage points. Nevertheless, Warren consistently beating him among respondents over time in head to head matchups with ALL the problems Warren has had is telling. The guy is not a strong candidate.

Here's the history to this point:

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Postby kalm » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:32 pm

Col Hogan wrote:First poll for this thread is a 2020 General Election poll from Optimus...

Top Line Results:

Head to Head Ballot Tests:

Joe Biden 50%, Donald Trump 43%, undecided 7%
Donald Trump 45%, Kamala Harris 44%, undecided 12%

Three-way Ballot Tests:

Joe Biden 45%, Donald Trump 41%, Howard Schultz 6%, undecided 8%
Donald Trump 42%, Kamala Harris 38%, Howard Schultz 7%, undecided 13%
Donald Trump 42%, Elizabeth Warren 39%, Howard Schultz 8%, undecided 11%
Donald Trump 42%, Beto O’Rourke 33%, Howard Schultz 9%, undecided 16%


https://0ptimus.com/2020-general-election-survey-memo/


Why no Bernie?
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Postby UNI88 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:36 pm

kalm wrote:
Col Hogan wrote:First poll for this thread is a 2020 General Election poll from Optimus...

Top Line Results:



https://0ptimus.com/2020-general-election-survey-memo/


Why no Bernie?


He's busy combing his hair with a balloon. :whistle:

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Postby kalm » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:31 pm

UNI88 wrote:
kalm wrote:
Why no Bernie?


He's busy combing his hair with a balloon. :whistle:


:lol:
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:22 am

You can run all the “Trump vs. generic Democrat” polls you like, but plugging specific Donks (most of whom are, like JSO, wack in some way) into the mix skews the results more toward Drumpf.

At this point, I think the Creepy Uncle Joe/ Willie’s Sloppy Seconds ticket has some appeal. 8-)
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls Mega-Thread

Postby Ivytalk » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:56 am

Just saw an interesting Pew Research poll saying that independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans. No surprise there. However, the vast majority of the self-declared “independents” (37%) either lean Democrat (17%) or lean Republican (13%). No real surprise there, either. Only 7% are “true independents” without party leaning, and they tend to be less politically active.

3-2-1 until JSO spins the living crap out of this. :coffee:
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