2018 Election Predictions

Political discussions
CAA Flagship
4th&29
4th&29
Posts: 38526
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:01 pm
I am a fan of: Old Dominion
A.K.A.: He/His/Him/Himself
Location: Pizza Hell

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by CAA Flagship »

93henfan wrote:Joo nose, Bash isn't terrible from the teeth down.
I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.
User avatar
93henfan
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 56357
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:03 pm
Location: Slower Delaware

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by 93henfan »

CAA Flagship wrote:
93henfan wrote:Joo nose, Bash isn't terrible from the teeth down.
I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.
Wtf? That was supposed to be "You know, Bash...."

Fucking autocorrect.
Delaware Football: 1889-2012; 2022-
CAA Flagship
4th&29
4th&29
Posts: 38526
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:01 pm
I am a fan of: Old Dominion
A.K.A.: He/His/Him/Himself
Location: Pizza Hell

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by CAA Flagship »

93henfan wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: I think Bash is 1/1024 horse.
Wtf? That was supposed to be "You know, Bash...."

Fucking autocorrect.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

2 4
User avatar
Grizalltheway
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 35688
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:01 pm
A.K.A.: DJ Honey BBQ
Location: BSC

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by Grizalltheway »

Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:
CAA Flagship
4th&29
4th&29
Posts: 38526
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:01 pm
I am a fan of: Old Dominion
A.K.A.: He/His/Him/Himself
Location: Pizza Hell

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by CAA Flagship »

Grizalltheway wrote:Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:
Heard CNN mention Helena last night.
They pronounced it Helena.
User avatar
Grizalltheway
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 35688
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:01 pm
A.K.A.: DJ Honey BBQ
Location: BSC

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by Grizalltheway »

CAA Flagship wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:Big Jon defeats Maryland Matt. :clap:
Heard CNN mention Helena last night.
They pronounced it Helena.
That's some serious fake news.
User avatar
Skjellyfetti
Anal
Anal
Posts: 14410
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:56 pm
I am a fan of: Appalachian

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Didn't feel too good about my predictions Tuesday night. But, looking better and better. :D

Something in the range of:

House - +36-40 D
Senate - +1-3 R
Governors - +7-8 D



state legislative chambers - +6 D

state legislative seats - +323 D

state AGs - +4 D

:rockon:
"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)
User avatar
Skjellyfetti
Anal
Anal
Posts: 14410
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:56 pm
I am a fan of: Appalachian

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Bump.

Just hit +38 D in the House with two still outstanding. :clap:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source= ... 7741210905
"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)
User avatar
Skjellyfetti
Anal
Anal
Posts: 14410
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:56 pm
I am a fan of: Appalachian

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23231
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

Skjellyfetti wrote:House - D +40
Senate - R +1
Governor's - D +7
On the nose. :lol:


'jelly kicking conk ass and taking names. 'Z and HI5 on the receiving end of the Blue Wave money shot :notworthy:
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
User avatar
css75
Level3
Level3
Posts: 2515
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:45 pm

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by css75 »

It is amazing what stuffing ballot boxes can do.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23231
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

css75 wrote:It is amazing what stuffing ballot boxes can do.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
or changing clothes and voting again... :lol:
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 20313
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by JohnStOnge »

Doesn't exactly fit but this thread but close enough. When I was in some exchanges about the mid terms on another site I noticed some things about the 2018 Senate mid terms.

There were 35 Senate races. 18 were in States won by Trump in 2016 and 17 were in States won by Clinton. Republicans were 0 - 17 in States won by Clinton. Democrats were 7 - 11 in States won by Trump.

As we know, the four biggest Electoral College prizes during Presidential elections are California (55), Texas (38), Florida, and New York. The Senate elections illustrated the point that the Democrat hold on California and New York is much stronger and more reliable than the Republican hold on Texas and Florida. There was no Republican in the California Senate race. In that State they were not even able to field a competitive candidate. The Democrat candidate won the New York Senate race by 34 percentage points (67% to 33%). Republicans won the Texas Senate race by 2.6 percentage points (50.9% to 48.3%) and won the Florida Senate race by 0.12 percentage points (50.05% to 49.93%)

Overall popular vote doesn't matter much per se in Senate races. But it does say something about overall combined public sentiment in the States involved. 59.3% of people who voted during the 2018 Senate elections voted for Democrats while 39.1% voted for Republicans. That edge is distorted some by the fact that there was no Republican in the California Senate race California accounts for 13% of the national vote total. But if we leave California out Democrats still had a 55% to 45% edge in all of the other States combined.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
tribe_pride
Level2
Level2
Posts: 1626
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:53 am
I am a fan of: W&M

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by tribe_pride »

JohnStOnge wrote:Doesn't exactly fit but this thread but close enough. When I was in some exchanges about the mid terms on another site I noticed some things about the 2018 Senate mid terms.

There were 35 Senate races. 18 were in States won by Trump in 2016 and 17 were in States won by Clinton. Republicans were 0 - 17 in States won by Clinton. Democrats were 7 - 11 in States won by Trump.

As we know, the four biggest Electoral College prizes during Presidential elections are California (55), Texas (38), Florida, and New York. The Senate elections illustrated the point that the Democrat hold on California and New York is much stronger and more reliable than the Republican hold on Texas and Florida. There was no Republican in the California Senate race. In that State they were not even able to field a competitive candidate. The Democrat candidate won the New York Senate race by 34 percentage points (67% to 33%). Republicans won the Texas Senate race by 2.6 percentage points (50.9% to 48.3%) and won the Florida Senate race by 0.12 percentage points (50.05% to 49.93%)

Overall popular vote doesn't matter much per se in Senate races. But it does say something about overall combined public sentiment in the States involved. 59.3% of people who voted during the 2018 Senate elections voted for Democrats while 39.1% voted for Republicans. That edge is distorted some by the fact that there was no Republican in the California Senate race California accounts for 13% of the national vote total. But if we leave California out Democrats still had a 55% to 45% edge in all of the other States combined.
The thing that you are not taking into account though is that there were 24 Democratic Senate seats (+2 independents who side with Dems) who were up for election and only 9 Republican Senate seats up for election. The incumbent wins much more than not notwithstanding which side won the Presidential seat. In this election, the incumbents won 27 of the 32 seats where the incumbent was in the General Election.

The next two Senate elections have more Republicans who are up for election and they will probably get more votes than the Dems even if President Trump loses and the Republicans lose the majority in the Senate.
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 23231
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: 2018 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
Pwns wrote:Post 'em here.

GOP holds the Senate, Nancy becomes speaker again which ultimately proves to be a gift to Trump.
Agree

And you bring an interesting point - I think that if the Dems take back the House it will improve Trump's chances of winning a second term (assuming he runs). We'll have a circus for the next two years (after an insurgency within the Dem Party to deny Pelosi the speakership)- with Pelosi and the old guard trying to keep a cap on impeachment, defunding ICE, etc - while the young Turks like Occasional-Cortex whip up the fringe. Two years will be all it takes for them to swing independent voters towards the GOP

The irony is that the easiest path back to the WH for the Dems will be to appear as the adults in the room, but they will wind up doing the opposite. And the sad part is that Trump is a statist big spender and there would likely be a lot of common ground between him and the Dems... particularly on infrastructure - but you can't do business with Hitler regardless of what you might achieve


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

since we agree on this it has to be true - Nancy Pelosi seems to be bigly outperforming the predictions of this thread too.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
Post Reply