Election 2020

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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Skjellyfetti wrote:Politically, yeah. I think a Pence President with a Republican Congress would be a lot more effective at passing their agenda.

Would still rather see Trump gone, though. I think his presidency will do more long term damage beyond politics.
Yeah, the damage is palpable. Stock market at record highs (over 60 record highs in 2017 alone)...401k’s up 18-30% in the past 12 months...real tax reform passed—I’m loving that extra $$ in my paycheck...bipartisan banking regulation reform passed (and it was BADLY needed)...got the ridiculous CFPB under control with a legitimate director...six straight quarters of increasing GDP...historically low unemployment...record high number of people employed—EVER...inflation remains under control right at 2%....Business confidence in the economy at an ALL TIME high...eliminated the ridiculous Obamacare mandate (yet ANOTHER tax on poor people)...got NK to the bargaining table, with a stated willingness to bargain away their nuclear missiles....virtually eliminated an mention of ISIS...border crossings have plummeted...highest African American employment numbers in years....got the Keystone pipeline back on track after his predecessor mysteriously refused to allow it...the list goes on and on....

But those damned tweets, right? :roll: :roll: :roll:
Yes there has been a continuation of the positive economic trends that were in place before Trump got elected. He hasn't screwed things up. Yet. We'll see what happens with the trade wars stuff.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Yeah, the damage is palpable. Stock market at record highs (over 60 record highs in 2017 alone)...401k’s up 18-30% in the past 12 months...real tax reform passed—I’m loving that extra $$ in my paycheck...bipartisan banking regulation reform passed (and it was BADLY needed)...got the ridiculous CFPB under control with a legitimate director...six straight quarters of increasing GDP...historically low unemployment...record high number of people employed—EVER...inflation remains under control right at 2%....Business confidence in the economy at an ALL TIME high...eliminated the ridiculous Obamacare mandate (yet ANOTHER tax on poor people)...got NK to the bargaining table, with a stated willingness to bargain away their nuclear missiles....virtually eliminated an mention of ISIS...border crossings have plummeted...highest African American employment numbers in years....got the Keystone pipeline back on track after his predecessor mysteriously refused to allow it...the list goes on and on....

But those damned tweets, right? :roll: :roll: :roll:
Yes there has been a continuation of the positive economic trends that were in place before Trump got elected. He hasn't screwed things up. Yet. We'll see what happens with the trade wars stuff.
Go look at where GDP was headed when he took office. Keystone. NK. Border. Tax reform. Mandate. Banking reg rollback. Stock market. None of those have anything to do with your hero


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Re: Election 2020

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Yeah, the damage is palpable. Stock market at record highs (over 60 record highs in 2017 alone)...401k’s up 18-30% in the past 12 months...real tax reform passed—I’m loving that extra $$ in my paycheck...bipartisan banking regulation reform passed (and it was BADLY needed)...got the ridiculous CFPB under control with a legitimate director...six straight quarters of increasing GDP...historically low unemployment...record high number of people employed—EVER...inflation remains under control right at 2%....Business confidence in the economy at an ALL TIME high...eliminated the ridiculous Obamacare mandate (yet ANOTHER tax on poor people)...got NK to the bargaining table, with a stated willingness to bargain away their nuclear missiles....virtually eliminated an mention of ISIS...border crossings have plummeted...highest African American employment numbers in years....got the Keystone pipeline back on track after his predecessor mysteriously refused to allow it...the list goes on and on....

But those damned tweets, right? :roll: :roll: :roll:
Yes there has been a continuation of the positive economic trends that were in place before Trump got elected. He hasn't screwed things up. Yet. We'll see what happens with the trade wars stuff.
Whoa!

Somewhere we crossed a line in there

Where did Obama stop inheriting bad stuff from Bush? I mustve missed it


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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Yes there has been a continuation of the positive economic trends that were in place before Trump got elected. He hasn't screwed things up. Yet. We'll see what happens with the trade wars stuff.
Whoa!

Somewhere we crossed a line in there

Where did Obama stop inheriting bad stuff from Bush? I mustve missed it


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I do believe he and Hildabeast are STILL blaming Bush...
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Re: Election 2020

Post by houndawg »

AZGrizFan wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
Whoa!

Somewhere we crossed a line in there

Where did Obama stop inheriting bad stuff from Bush? I mustve missed it


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I do believe he and Hildabeast are STILL blaming Bush...
depends....are we rolling with the DOW being a sign of good times now or are we still all about labor force participation rates and shit?
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Re: Election 2020

Post by kalm »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Yes there has been a continuation of the positive economic trends that were in place before Trump got elected. He hasn't screwed things up. Yet. We'll see what happens with the trade wars stuff.
Whoa!

Somewhere we crossed a line in there

Where did Obama stop inheriting bad stuff from Bush? I mustve missed it


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He never did and we're still dealing with some of it today.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

houndawg wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
I do believe he and Hildabeast are STILL blaming Bush...
depends....are we rolling with the DOW being a sign of good times now or are we still all about labor force participation rates and shit?
Read my lips: Highest number of people employed in America—EVER. EVER!
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Why stop there?

Highest number of people in America--EVER! EVER!
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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

Skjellyfetti wrote:Why stop there?

Highest number of people in America--EVER! EVER!
I don’t think that second exclamation point was really necessary.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Ivytalk »

Skjellyfetti wrote:Why stop there?

Highest number of people in America--EVER! EVER!
Thanks, dal. :coffee:

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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:[
Go look at where GDP was headed when he took office.
I've done that a number of times. Here is one chart from https://www.statista.com/statistics/188 ... in-the-us/:

Image

Please make your argument as to how that shows that there was some significant positive change in what had been going on for 2011 through 2016 period around the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017.

No intellectually honest person would look at that graph and say that, if they knew nothing about who was in power when during that period, they would see something to make them think that something had changed around the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017 so that all of a sudden things got better.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:Image
That graph appears to show that the upward slope at the end started in the middle of 2016. That's not an indication of a change around the time Trump got elected or when Trump took office.

Seriously, AZ, the GDP data to not show an association between Trump getting elected and/or taking office and an improvement in the trend.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW if someone is going to show annual GDP growth the graph should be a bar graph rather than a line graph. Here is a bar graph:

Image

Yes, the single year 2016 was lower than the single year 2017. But saying that what happened in 2017 looks like a change in the year to year variation that was in place throughout the period represented would be ridiculous.

You can see the big dip in 2009. We all know what was going on then. The growth rate for 2017 was "middle of the pack" for the period since then. 4th highest growth rate out of 8 years.

The idea that what's happened so far indicates that GDP growth rate patterns have changed in association with Trump taking office is just flat out absurd.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if someone is going to show annual GDP growth the graph should be a bar graph rather than a line graph. Here is a bar graph:

Image

Yes, the single year 2016 was lower than the single year 2017. But saying that what happened in 2017 looks like a change in the year to year variation that was in place throughout the period represented would be ridiculous.

You can see the big dip in 2009. We all know what was going on then. The growth rate for 2017 was "middle of the pack" for the period since then. 4th highest growth rate out of 8 years.

The idea that what's happened so far indicates that GDP growth rate patterns have changed in association with Trump taking office is just flat out absurd.
OK Jon. :roll: :roll:
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Re: Election 2020

Post by CAA Flagship »

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if someone is going to show annual GDP growth the graph should be a bar graph rather than a line graph. Here is a bar graph:

Image

Yes, the single year 2016 was lower than the single year 2017. But saying that what happened in 2017 looks like a change in the year to year variation that was in place throughout the period represented would be ridiculous.

You can see the big dip in 2009. We all know what was going on then. The growth rate for 2017 was "middle of the pack" for the period since then. 4th highest growth rate out of 8 years.

The idea that what's happened so far indicates that GDP growth rate patterns have changed in association with Trump taking office is just flat out absurd.
OK Jon. :roll: :roll:
Just let him go. Now that he is paying attention to the economy, maybe he will learn something.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

CAA Flagship wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
OK Jon. :roll: :roll:
Just let him go. Now that he is paying attention to the economy, maybe he will learn something.
In other words, you guys know you've lost this argument. And in case you don't: You did. The data simply do not support your position.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

Now I need to get to the thing I wanted to post when I came back to this thread to begin with. I was watching TV this morning or maybe it was yesterday morning. It showed a series of polls about how Donald Trump did against various potential Democrat candidates. I think it was around 10 of them. It had him losing the popular vote to all of them. And it showed him getting absolutely clobbered by Biden. I Googled around trying to find that particular set of polls and couldn't. But I did find one about him and Biden. And it had Biden up on him by 56% to 39%.

The article I looked at, which is at http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-would ... sts-862642, mentioned that the poll was "...conducted by left-leaning organization Public Policy Polling."

It may be a left leaning organization. But the 538 pollster ratings show that the actual results of Public Policy Polling, mathematically, have tended to have a slight bias in favor of the Republican candidate.

I also found an article on a poll estimating that, by 44% to 36%, people would vote for the Democrat in the next election against Trump regardless of who the Democrat is. That article is at https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23379396/.

Now there are a lot of things we can discuss about such polls. I doubt, for instance, that Biden runs. But there is no way such polling looks good for Trump. It's hard for me to imagine an incumbent President being worse off at this point of his or her Presidency than what polls like that suggest.

No I would not say Trump getting beat next time is a done deal. But I sure as heck would say that the Democrats are in good position and have to be optimistic about their chances. They just need to come up with SOME candidate that is at least decent.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:Now I need to get to the thing I wanted to post when I came back to this thread to begin with. I was watching TV this morning or maybe it was yesterday morning. It showed a series of polls about how Donald Trump did against various potential Democrat candidates. I think it was around 10 of them. It had him losing the popular vote to all of them. And it showed him getting absolutely clobbered by Biden. I Googled around trying to find that particular set of polls and couldn't. But I did find one about him and Biden. And it had Biden up on him by 56% to 39%.

The article I looked at, which is at http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-would ... sts-862642, mentioned that the poll was "...conducted by left-leaning organization Public Policy Polling."

It may be a left leaning organization. But the 538 pollster ratings show that the actual results of Public Policy Polling, mathematically, have tended to have a slight bias in favor of the Republican candidate.

I also found an article on a poll estimating that, by 44% to 36%, people would vote for the Democrat in the next election against Trump regardless of who the Democrat is. That article is at https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23379396/.

Now there are a lot of things we can discuss about such polls. I doubt, for instance, that Biden runs. But there is no way such polling looks good for Trump. It's hard for me to imagine an incumbent President being worse off at this point of his or her Presidency than what polls like that suggest.

No I would not say Trump getting beat next time is a done deal. But I sure as heck would say that the Democrats are in good position and have to be optimistic about their chances. They just need to come up with SOME candidate that is at least decent.
And I know you’ll do your damnedest to help the Donks do just that, once you and your sainted wife have bitten the bullet and changed your registrations to D.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by Ibanez »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Now I need to get to the thing I wanted to post when I came back to this thread to begin with. I was watching TV this morning or maybe it was yesterday morning. It showed a series of polls about how Donald Trump did against various potential Democrat candidates. I think it was around 10 of them. It had him losing the popular vote to all of them. And it showed him getting absolutely clobbered by Biden. I Googled around trying to find that particular set of polls and couldn't. But I did find one about him and Biden. And it had Biden up on him by 56% to 39%.

The article I looked at, which is at http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-would ... sts-862642, mentioned that the poll was "...conducted by left-leaning organization Public Policy Polling."

It may be a left leaning organization. But the 538 pollster ratings show that the actual results of Public Policy Polling, mathematically, have tended to have a slight bias in favor of the Republican candidate.

I also found an article on a poll estimating that, by 44% to 36%, people would vote for the Democrat in the next election against Trump regardless of who the Democrat is. That article is at https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23379396/.

Now there are a lot of things we can discuss about such polls. I doubt, for instance, that Biden runs. But there is no way such polling looks good for Trump. It's hard for me to imagine an incumbent President being worse off at this point of his or her Presidency than what polls like that suggest.

No I would not say Trump getting beat next time is a done deal. But I sure as heck would say that the Democrats are in good position and have to be optimistic about their chances. They just need to come up with SOME candidate that is at least decent.
And I know you’ll do your damnedest to help the Donks do just that, once you and your sainted wife have bitten the bullet and changed your registrations to D.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by HI54UNI »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Now I need to get to the thing I wanted to post when I came back to this thread to begin with. I was watching TV this morning or maybe it was yesterday morning. It showed a series of polls about how Donald Trump did against various potential Democrat candidates. I think it was around 10 of them. It had him losing the popular vote to all of them. And it showed him getting absolutely clobbered by Biden. I Googled around trying to find that particular set of polls and couldn't. But I did find one about him and Biden. And it had Biden up on him by 56% to 39%.

The article I looked at, which is at http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-would ... sts-862642, mentioned that the poll was "...conducted by left-leaning organization Public Policy Polling."

It may be a left leaning organization. But the 538 pollster ratings show that the actual results of Public Policy Polling, mathematically, have tended to have a slight bias in favor of the Republican candidate.

I also found an article on a poll estimating that, by 44% to 36%, people would vote for the Democrat in the next election against Trump regardless of who the Democrat is. That article is at https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23379396/.

Now there are a lot of things we can discuss about such polls. I doubt, for instance, that Biden runs. But there is no way such polling looks good for Trump. It's hard for me to imagine an incumbent President being worse off at this point of his or her Presidency than what polls like that suggest.

No I would not say Trump getting beat next time is a done deal. But I sure as heck would say that the Democrats are in good position and have to be optimistic about their chances. They just need to come up with SOME candidate that is at least decent.
And I know you’ll do your damnedest to help the Donks do just that, once you and your sainted wife have bitten the bullet and changed your registrations to D.
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Re: Election 2020

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Buttering up his next VP running mate. :oops:

Trump called Roseanne Barr

President Donald Trump called Roseanne Barr to offer congratulations on the premiere of her hit sitcom's reboot, a White House official told NBC News on Thursday.

The laudatory call to Barr — who plays a Trump supporter on the show and is also one in real life — came after the revival of her show "Roseanne," which returned to ABC this week more than 20 years after it ended after a nine-season run.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Now I need to get to the thing I wanted to post when I came back to this thread to begin with. I was watching TV this morning or maybe it was yesterday morning. It showed a series of polls about how Donald Trump did against various potential Democrat candidates. I think it was around 10 of them. It had him losing the popular vote to all of them. And it showed him getting absolutely clobbered by Biden. I Googled around trying to find that particular set of polls and couldn't. But I did find one about him and Biden. And it had Biden up on him by 56% to 39%.

The article I looked at, which is at http://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-would ... sts-862642, mentioned that the poll was "...conducted by left-leaning organization Public Policy Polling."

It may be a left leaning organization. But the 538 pollster ratings show that the actual results of Public Policy Polling, mathematically, have tended to have a slight bias in favor of the Republican candidate.

I also found an article on a poll estimating that, by 44% to 36%, people would vote for the Democrat in the next election against Trump regardless of who the Democrat is. That article is at https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/0 ... /23379396/.

Now there are a lot of things we can discuss about such polls. I doubt, for instance, that Biden runs. But there is no way such polling looks good for Trump. It's hard for me to imagine an incumbent President being worse off at this point of his or her Presidency than what polls like that suggest.

No I would not say Trump getting beat next time is a done deal. But I sure as heck would say that the Democrats are in good position and have to be optimistic about their chances. They just need to come up with SOME candidate that is at least decent.
And I know you’ll do your damnedest to help the Donks do just that, once you and your sainted wife have bitten the bullet and changed your registrations to D.
I would not change my Party registration but I do think the best thing for the long term future of the country at this time would be to have the Republicans crushed in the next few elections. They took a wrong turn during the 2016 election season and they need to be rebuked.

Yes if I could press a button and have the Democrats win both houses of Congress in 2018 then win the Presidency as well as both houses of Congress in 2020 I would do it. And that's not because I like the idea of the Democrats controlling things. It's because I think the Republicans need to be slapped back into their senses.
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Re: Election 2020

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if someone is going to show annual GDP growth the graph should be a bar graph rather than a line graph. Here is a bar graph:

Image

Yes, the single year 2016 was lower than the single year 2017. But saying that what happened in 2017 looks like a change in the year to year variation that was in place throughout the period represented would be ridiculous.

You can see the big dip in 2009. We all know what was going on then. The growth rate for 2017 was "middle of the pack" for the period since then. 4th highest growth rate out of 8 years.

The idea that what's happened so far indicates that GDP growth rate patterns have changed in association with Trump taking office is just flat out absurd.
There you go again. Posting a chart with incorrect data. 2017 4th qtr was revised upward to 2.9%. That chart shows it a little over 2%..
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Re: Election 2020

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:BTW if someone is going to show annual GDP growth the graph should be a bar graph rather than a line graph. Here is a bar graph:

Image

Yes, the single year 2016 was lower than the single year 2017. But saying that what happened in 2017 looks like a change in the year to year variation that was in place throughout the period represented would be ridiculous.

You can see the big dip in 2009. We all know what was going on then. The growth rate for 2017 was "middle of the pack" for the period since then. 4th highest growth rate out of 8 years.

The idea that what's happened so far indicates that GDP growth rate patterns have changed in association with Trump taking office is just flat out absurd.
There you go again. Posting a chart with incorrect data. 2017 4th qtr was revised upward to 2.9%. That chart shows it a little over 2%..
I think it's something like 2.5%. When you adjust it it's not going to change the basic picture. The graph will convey the same impression.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
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