GannonFan wrote:CID1990 wrote:
Do you have any idea of how many back country Texans don’t vote?
Do you know how conservative Mexican Catholics really are?
A blue Texas within the next 75 years is a tempting, but ultimately crazy idea
The study that JSO loves to quote (the one about the browning of America and how all the Democrats have to do is sit back and let the demographics work for them) was already debunked by none other than the original author of that study. Yes, America will continue to brown, if that's the right word, and the white population will continue to shrink as a percentage, but there's real evidence that very few of the current minority blocks will vote as a block going forward (and right now, only African Americans really vote as a block relative to one party over the other). That's what the author of that study said he missed when he revised his study and said that a default Democratic majority, forever, based on demographics was not actually going to happen.
I don't think I've ever quoted a study. If I did and you can show that go ahead and I'll admit that my memory failed me. But to my recollection all I do is look at the exit polling data over time.
What I'd say is that I see no evidence that the current minority groups will change their behavior in terms of the general statement that they have been voting by substantial margins for Democrats. Like for instance I have a link with exit polling going back through the 1976 Presidential election. And they show minorities consistently voting by an overwhelming majority for Democrats every time. I see no reason to think it'll change.
I don't know about the word "block." But the Republican candidate has only gotten more than 35% of the Hispanic vote once during the time period. That was in 2004 when G.W. Bush got 44%. Since then the McCain got 31%, Romney got 27%, and Trump got 29%. Trump's 29% was close to the average of 30% for the 1976 - 2016 period so I'm not seeing some indication that the situation has changed. I might've thought Bush getting 44% in 2004 was notable but since then things have settled down to be consistent with the historical norm.