23K

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Re: 23K

Post by Ibanez »

93henfan wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote:DJIA 11/30/14 - 17,958
DJIA 10/30/16 - 17,888

After recovery from recession, DJIA was essentially flat for 23 months.
Precisely. Citadel Grad may have his scary head and shoulders pattern that he always talks about, but I wrote my doctoral thesis on the period you referred to Flaggy, and I called it Beware the Witch Tits Pattern! Thank God we got a Republican on the heels of the latest witch tits. A witch tits followed by Hillary would have spelled Armageddon.

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I'd like to learn more about your thesis.....Is it associated with the Bitch Tits Corollary to Maximizing Market Gains?
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Re: 23K

Post by 93henfan »

Ibanez wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Precisely. Citadel Grad may have his scary head and shoulders pattern that he always talks about, but I wrote my doctoral thesis on the period you referred to Flaggy, and I called it Beware the Witch Tits Pattern! Thank God we got a Republican on the heels of the latest witch tits. A witch tits followed by Hillary would have spelled Armageddon.

Image
I'd like to learn more about your thesis.....Is it associated with the Bitch Tits Corollary to Maximizing Market Gains?
No.
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Re: 23K

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Done.
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Re: 23K

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Re: 23K

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Here’s a refresher from the week before Trump was elected when business was facing the near reality of Hillary Clinton:
The S&P 500 suffered losses for the ninth straight session on Friday, the first time the index has done so since 1980. The Dow and the Nasdaq also ended in negative territory as investors fretted over the election’s results. Such concerns compelled them to remain on the sidelines or park investments in risk-averse assets such as gold and short-term duration bonds. For the week, all the major indexes also finished in the red.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) decreased 0.2%, to close at 17,888.28.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/238175 ... er-07-2016

Market is up 34% since then.
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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

You guys keep looking at what in historical terms was a very short flattening of the market as though that's something significant in the grand scheme of things. It's not. Here's another graph of what the DJA has done over the long term:

Image

There are little ups and downs all over the place. But the trend has been generally upward since March, 2009. There isn't any dramatic change associated with Trump. It's the same kind of thing as with the graph of quarterly GDP growth in the other thread. If someone looked at that graph without knowing anything about politics or who was in office and they were asked to pick the last time something dramatic happened where the trajectory changed it'd be March, 2009. That's when the market had reached the end of a sharp downturn and started a generally upward trend.
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Re: 23K

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Historic:

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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

93henfan wrote:Historic:

Image
That's an interesting chart in that many think that Calvin Coolidge's policies led to the Great Depression.

Here's one example from History.com:

http://www.history.com/topics/us-presid ... n-coolidge
He was a pro-business conservative who favored tax cuts and limited government spending. Yet some of his laissez-faire policies also contributed to the economic problems that erupted into the Great Depression.
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Re: 23K

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Yep, we’re headed for another depression.

Whatever you say, crazy Uncle John. :loko:
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Re: 23K

Post by CID1990 »

Solid work here, 93.

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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

93henfan wrote:Yep, we’re headed for another depression.

Whatever you say, crazy Uncle John. :loko:
I don't know about that. I think the point is that the chart doesn't mean anything. The chart that you should be looking at as meaning something is the one I posted that shows what the history of the stock market is in broad perspective. You guys post a little snippet that looks all blurry because you had to zoom in on it so much. It's just part of the random variation of the stock market. When you stand back and look at the thing you can see there isn't any dramatic change coinciding with Trump. It's just a continuation of a general upward trend that's been in place since early 2009.

A slightly different subject but when I see stuff like this it reminds me of how Trump says he inherited a mess. No he didn't. He came into office when positive trends in the stock market, the economy, employment, etc., were all already in place.

And he knew it before he got elected. That's why he was saying things like the stock market was really a bubble and the positive economic stats were fake.
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Re: 23K

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Well done, Mrs. St Onge. Have you quit any other Republican committees lately?

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Re: 23K

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JohnStOnge wrote:You guys keep looking at what in historical terms was a very short flattening of the market as though that's something significant in the grand scheme of things. It's not. Here's another graph of what the DJA has done over the long term:

Image

There are little ups and downs all over the place. But the trend has been generally upward since March, 2009. There isn't any dramatic change associated with Trump. It's the same kind of thing as with the graph of quarterly GDP growth in the other thread. If someone looked at that graph without knowing anything about politics or who was in office and they were asked to pick the last time something dramatic happened where the trajectory changed it'd be March, 2009. That's when the market had reached the end of a sharp downturn and started a generally upward trend.
Nice theory, except that chart isn’t linear.
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Re: 23K

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JohnStOnge wrote:
93henfan wrote:Yep, we’re headed for another depression.

Whatever you say, crazy Uncle John. :loko:
I don't know about that. I think the point is that the chart doesn't mean anything. The chart that you should be looking at as meaning something is the one I posted that shows what the history of the stock market is in broad perspective. You guys post a little snippet that looks all blurry because you had to zoom in on it so much. It's just part of the random variation of the stock market. When you stand back and look at the thing you can see there isn't any dramatic change coinciding with Trump. It's just a continuation of a general upward trend that's been in place since early 2009.

A slightly different subject but when I see stuff like this it reminds me of how Trump says he inherited a mess. No he didn't. He came into office when positive trends in the stock market, the economy, employment, etc., were all already in place.

And he knew it before he got elected. That's why he was saying things like the stock market was really a bubble and the positive economic stats were fake.
In 2016 GDP growth was an abysmal 1.6%. Like I said on the other thread, through the 1st 3 quarters of this year its avg 2.53%. The 1st qtr was an abysmal 1.2%, the last 2 quarters have been over 3%. The 4th quarter will be too, which means GDP for Trumps 1st year will be better than any of Obama's 8...
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Re: 23K

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Stock market took 97 years to get to 16k. It's gone up 16k in the last 8 years. That is more than just a little upward trend.
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Re: 23K

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Re: 23K

Post by andy7171 »

dbackjon wrote:
Col Hogan wrote:

Obama blamed Bush for 8 years...now he gets credit months after he leaves office... :suspicious: :dunce:

Up until September, still Obama's economy. Obama's recovery and economic expansion.
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Re: 23K

Post by GannonFan »

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:You guys keep looking at what in historical terms was a very short flattening of the market as though that's something significant in the grand scheme of things. It's not. Here's another graph of what the DJA has done over the long term:

Image

There are little ups and downs all over the place. But the trend has been generally upward since March, 2009. There isn't any dramatic change associated with Trump. It's the same kind of thing as with the graph of quarterly GDP growth in the other thread. If someone looked at that graph without knowing anything about politics or who was in office and they were asked to pick the last time something dramatic happened where the trajectory changed it'd be March, 2009. That's when the market had reached the end of a sharp downturn and started a generally upward trend.
Nice theory, except that chart isn’t linear.
I don't think he knows what that means.
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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

Today I saw a news report saying that the stock market did better this year than it's done since 2013. I googled it and got an article on it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ma ... 989784001/

Ok so "Stocks had biggest gains since 2013." Now let's state the obvious: That means that stocks had bigger gains during a relatively recent year during the Obama Administration than they did during the first year of the Trump Administration.

See? I will admit that I expected the stock market to have problems after Trump was elected because I'd have thought people trying to bet on the future would be concerned about a mentally ill person being President. But this thing where people think that some kind of massive improvement in the stock market is associated with Trump taking office is just complete nonsense.
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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

GannonFan wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Nice theory, except that chart isn’t linear.
I don't think he knows what that means.
I do know what linear means, but that has nothing to do with the point. The point is that if you were to look at the chart I presented without knowing anything about what's been going on in the world and ask the question, "when did things happen to significantly change things?" you would not pick January 2016. That time period doesn't stick out at all.
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Re: 23K

Post by CAA Flagship »

JohnStOnge wrote:
GannonFan wrote:
I don't think he knows what that means.
I do know what linear means, but that has nothing to do with the point. The point is that if you were to look at the chart I presented without knowing anything about what's been going on in the world and ask the question, "when did things happen to significantly change things?" you would not pick January 2016. That time period doesn't stick out at all.
Correct. The election was still 10 months away. :coffee:
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Re: 23K

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:Image
I think you get a different impression if you expand the time frame some:

Image

There's no suggestion of some big upsurge in the economy or something different in the trend that's been in place for a while. Not yet anyway. If a year from now it looks there there is a significant change than it will be what it is. But right now there's nothing about what's happened in 2017 that's out of line with the way things had been generally going.
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23K

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:Today I saw a news report saying that the stock market did better this year than it's done since 2013. I googled it and got an article on it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ma ... 989784001/

Ok so "Stocks had biggest gains since 2013." Now let's state the obvious: That means that stocks had bigger gains during a relatively recent year during the Obama Administration than they did during the first year of the Trump Administration.

See? I will admit that I expected the stock market to have problems after Trump was elected because I'd have thought people trying to bet on the future would be concerned about a mentally ill person being President. But this thing where people think that some kind of massive improvement in the stock market is associated with Trump taking office is just complete nonsense.
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Re: 23K

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JohnStOnge wrote:Today I saw a news report saying that the stock market did better this year than it's done since 2013. I googled it and got an article on it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ma ... 989784001/

Ok so "Stocks had biggest gains since 2013." Now let's state the obvious: That means that stocks had bigger gains during a relatively recent year during the Obama Administration than they did during the first year of the Trump Administration.

See? I will admit that I expected the stock market to have problems after Trump was elected because I'd have thought people trying to bet on the future would be concerned about a mentally ill person being President. But this thing where people think that some kind of massive improvement in the stock market is associated with Trump taking office is just complete nonsense.
No, it was just that nonsense about Drumpf rolling back Obomba’s stifling regulations, and that bullshyt about the biggest pro-business tax reform in a generation, and that crap about 3%+ growth rates, and that horse hockey about declining unemployment, and that baloney about consumer confidence at a 17-year high...makes Donald J. Trump a bodaciously successful POTUS on the domestic front.

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Re: 23K

Post by CAA Flagship »

25,000
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