The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[Ivytalk]

In the initial, we're putting chain, a negotiated chain, we're putting a replacement for lottery or an end to lottery, and it could be a replacement, we bring people in from various countries, that come in based on merit and various other reasons, and we are going to build a wall. So those three primary things.

Shaddup. Stable genius at work.

[Ibanez]

In the initial, we're putting chain, a negotiated chain, we're putting a replacement for lottery or an end to lottery, and it could be a replacement, we bring people in from various countries, that come in based on merit and various other reasons, and we are going to build a wall. So those three primary things.

Is Miss South Carolina a speechwriter now?

[kalm]

Awww...did that hurt your crony capitalist sentimentalities....?

Two things free market capitalism needs to be sustainable and democratic:

Regulation

Strong middle class


Ouch...that’s gotta hurt...

Nope, neither post hurt at all. Just surprised that you'd be surprised that most of any savings would go to those who make the most or to the shareholders. To think it should all be passed to the front line is very noble of you.

I never said it all should go to the workers. Of course the lions share goes to top end. I was just pointing out the propaganda of trickle down economics...especially from a long term/bigger picture standpoint.

But hey! Some greeters at Walmart got a spiff. America is great again.

[kalm]

That’s cool but much of this news fails to mention the simultaneous layoffs occurring with some of these companies. Not to mention that the vast majority of the savings goes to executive compensation and shareholders.

Do you provide profit sharing?

Only after I get mine first.

[89Hen]

I was just pointing out the propaganda of trickle down economics...especially from a long term/bigger picture standpoint.

Do Home Depot and Walmart gave out bonuses to front line employees all the time? Honest question, I haven't worked at either.

If yes, than this is propaganda. If no, this is news. $0.02

[JohnStOnge]

I was just pointing out the propaganda of trickle down economics...especially from a long term/bigger picture standpoint.

Do Home Depot and Walmart gave out bonuses to front line employees all the time? Honest question, I haven't worked at either.

If yes, than this is propaganda. If no, this is news. $0.02

The reference to long term, bigger picture standpoint is key. It's very possible that stuff like bonuses is a political move. Corporations could want to facilitate a positive attitude towards the tax cuts. But as we know the Wal Mart corporation concurrently closed 63 Sam's Club stores. One estimate I've seen is that it means 11,000 layoffs (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 027891001/).

I have no objection to tax cuts per se. But my reasons are related to philosophical/moral concerns. I don't think we should have a system where 25 percent of the people carry 87 percent of the income tax burden while the bottom 50% carry 2.75%.

But the idea that at any given time we are at a point where a tax cut like this one means a significant, substantial, and sustained improvement in the economy while growth in tax revenue remains at least what it would've been and might increase is highly suspect.

The economy was already in good shape. Positive trends in every economic indicator people follow (as far as I can tell) were already in place.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW you probably noticed that Trump has finally taken the first steps related to the most disconcerting aspect of his economic positions during the campaign. He's started imposing tariffs. We'll see what happens with that.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... story.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 059542001/

Prices for washing machines and solar panels are likely to rise while tens of thousands of Americans could lose jobs following President Trump’s decision to slap hefty tariffs on imports of those products in a bid to aid U.S. manufacturers, industry officials say

[CAA Flagship]

BTW you probably noticed that Trump has finally taken the first steps related to the most disconcerting aspect of his economic positions during the campaign. He's started imposing tariffs. We'll see what happens with that.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... story.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 059542001/

Prices for washing machines and solar panels are likely to rise while tens of thousands of Americans could lose jobs following President Trump’s decision to slap hefty tariffs on imports of those products in a bid to aid U.S. manufacturers, industry officials say

Since you brought it up, go ahead and state your opinion on this and what you predict the outcome will be.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW you probably noticed that Trump has finally taken the first steps related to the most disconcerting aspect of his economic positions during the campaign. He's started imposing tariffs. We'll see what happens with that.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... story.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 059542001/

Since you brought it up, go ahead and state your opinion on this and what you predict the outcome will be.

I said during the campaign I think that if Trump did what he said he was going to do with protectionism it'll be a disaster. Especially with respect to China. The US population has become accustomed to getting a lot things at reasonable prices. When tariff's are imposed the US consumer pays them. I don't think the US wants a trade war with China. I think the US would lose that war. And Chinese leadership knows Trump is a buffoon. He's out of his league trying to deal with them.

[JohnStOnge]

Ok the first cut at estimating 2017 GDP is in and, as expected, the GDP picture is like that of other economic indicators. Nobody would look at the data and think something significant happened in late 2016 or early 2017 to change things. The updated data are available at https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543.

I'll first post a graph that I think best makes the case for some Trump effect first since the greatest gross increase in Real GDP (i.e., inflation adjusted) for the period represented is between 2016 and 2017:



But it's not much. Well within what could happen by chance. And then you can look at year to year percent growth in GDP:



Certainly nothing special about 2017 there. Finally there's this graph of quarterly growth in GDP from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis page at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nation ... elease.htm:



Again: Nothing really special about 2017. Bottom line is that nobody who had no knowledge of events such as Presidential elections would look at those data and say it looks like something happened around 2017 to improve things. Frankly, the biggest difference is in how Trump views the indicators. Before the election he was dismissing statistics showing basically a good economy that was growing as fake. Now that he's in office he's touting them as showing that he's the reason for them. As I noted in another post in another thread: Like a rooster claiming credit for the sunrise.

[JohnStOnge]

Hey, here's an interesting one:

https://www.cfr.org/blog/did-tax-reform ... yees-raise

As shown in the graphic above, this is the third wage hike that Walmart has announced in the past two years. Each one was preceded by a period of accelerating private retail wage growth—which is precisely what a cynical economist would expect. Firms raise wages when they need to attract and retain workers.

But that makes for crummy PR. Much better to share credit for rising wages with lawmakers who cut your taxes. Gives them motivation to keep the goodies coming.

[JohnStOnge]

Oh gee, here's another one:

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/ ... ember.aspx

Fewer Jobs Created in 2017 Than Preceding Year

Imagine that.

But we know there has been this HUGE improvement because Trump says so and we know that Trump ALWAYS tells the truth.

[kalm]

JSO, bitch slapping the Trumpbots here.

[CAA Flagship]

JSO, bitch slapping the Trumpbots here.

JSO's take on the economy is like my sons' friends belief that LeBron is better than Michael Jordan.

[kalm]

JSO, bitch slapping the Trumpbots here.

JSO's take on the economy is like my sons' friends belief that LeBron is better than Michael Jordan.

He’s just posting data. Sorry it doesn’t jive with you’re narrative.

[CAA Flagship]

JSO's take on the economy is like my sons' friends belief that LeBron is better than Michael Jordan.

He’s just posting data. Sorry it doesn’t jive with you’re narrative.

My sons' friends spout "data" as well. A trained eye sees beyond data.

[HI54UNI]

Oh gee, here's another one:

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/ ... ember.aspx

Fewer Jobs Created in 2017 Than Preceding Year

Imagine that.

But we know there has been this HUGE improvement because Trump says so and we know that Trump ALWAYS tells the truth.

A few other tidbits from your article for those that normally skip over your keyboard diarrhea.

The construction sector added 210,000 jobs in 2017, up from 155,000 in 2016, and manufacturing added 196,000 jobs during the year, a far cry from the 16,000 jobs lost in 2016.

He also noted that wage and job gains "went to the people who needed them most—workers with less education."

Kolko pointed out that some long-term labor-market trends reversed in 2017. "Middle-wage industries grew fastest last year, even though the longer-term trend is toward greater polarization with more growth at the top and the bottom than in the middle. And manufacturing job growth outpaced the overall economy in 2017 after losing jobs in 2016."

[kalm]

Oh gee, here's another one:

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/ ... ember.aspx



Imagine that.

But we know there has been this HUGE improvement because Trump says so and we know that Trump ALWAYS tells the truth.

A few other tidbits from your article for those that normally skip over your keyboard diarrhea.

The construction sector added 210,000 jobs in 2017, up from 155,000 in 2016, and manufacturing added 196,000 jobs during the year, a far cry from the 16,000 jobs lost in 2016.

He also noted that wage and job gains "went to the people who needed them most—workers with less education."

Kolko pointed out that some long-term labor-market trends reversed in 2017. "Middle-wage industries grew fastest last year, even though the longer-term trend is toward greater polarization with more growth at the top and the bottom than in the middle. And manufacturing job growth outpaced the overall economy in 2017 after losing jobs in 2016."

Good stuff, Fiver, thx!

Way more informative than that lazy financial advisor in a jogging suit Flaggy fella.

[CAA Flagship]

A few other tidbits from your article for those that normally skip over your keyboard diarrhea.

The construction sector added 210,000 jobs in 2017, up from 155,000 in 2016, and manufacturing added 196,000 jobs during the year, a far cry from the 16,000 jobs lost in 2016.

He also noted that wage and job gains "went to the people who needed them most—workers with less education."

Kolko pointed out that some long-term labor-market trends reversed in 2017. "Middle-wage industries grew fastest last year, even though the longer-term trend is toward greater polarization with more growth at the top and the bottom than in the middle. And manufacturing job growth outpaced the overall economy in 2017 after losing jobs in 2016."

Good stuff, Fiver, thx!

Way more informative than that lazy financial advisor in a jogging suit Flaggy fella.

Don't you have some golf balls to fish out of a pond?

[BDKJMU]

"FedEx announces wage increases, bonuses amid tax reform

FedEx announced wage increases, employee bonuses and pension funding on Friday, citing the new Republican-backed tax-reform plan.

The company announced that two-thirds of $200 million in increased compensation will go to hourly employees, while the remainder will be put toward performance-based incentive plans for salaried employees.

FedEx also said $1.5 billion will be put toward the company's pension plan and another $1.5 billion would go toward expanding the company's hub in Indianapolis.

"FedEx believes the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will likely increase [gross domestic product] and investment in the United States," the company said on its website.

President Trump signed the GOP-backed tax plan, which decreases the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, in December.

FedEx is the latest company to announce benefits as a result of tax reform.

Home Depot said on Thursday it would be giving a $1,000 bonus to employees who have worked at Home Depot at least 20 years, according to CNBC.

Starbucks announced new raises for its employees on Wednesday, while JPMorgan Chase and Disney said on Tuesday they would give their employees raises and bonuses as a result of tax reform........."
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/37087 ... tax-reform

[JohnStOnge]

Oh gee, here's another one:

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/ ... ember.aspx



Imagine that.

But we know there has been this HUGE improvement because Trump says so and we know that Trump ALWAYS tells the truth.

A few other tidbits from your article for those that normally skip over your keyboard diarrhea.

The construction sector added 210,000 jobs in 2017, up from 155,000 in 2016, and manufacturing added 196,000 jobs during the year, a far cry from the 16,000 jobs lost in 2016.

He also noted that wage and job gains "went to the people who needed them most—workers with less education."

Kolko pointed out that some long-term labor-market trends reversed in 2017. "Middle-wage industries grew fastest last year, even though the longer-term trend is toward greater polarization with more growth at the top and the bottom than in the middle. And manufacturing job growth outpaced the overall economy in 2017 after losing jobs in 2016."

So if you're highly educated you don't need a job? Bottom line is that when Trump runs around talking about how many jobs were created during his first year of office he's talking about fewer jobs than were created during Obama's last year. It's another aspect of the big overall picture: There was no big "Make America Great Again" change in the economy associated with Trump winning the election and/or taking office.

[JohnStOnge]

The graphic below puts the job growth thing into perspective. As you can see, the last big change in the way things were going was around 2010 or 2011 when the current upward trend started. Before that the previous big change in the way things were going was around 2008 when there was a downturn. There is absolutely no indication of any change in the way things were going big picture wise associated with Trump being elected or taking office. The rate of growth has been pretty close to constant since around the beginning of 2011. Of course part of the deal is that Trump lied about things being in bad shape before the election. And now that things are continuing in about the same way all of a sudden there's been this BIG turnaround and he's making America great again. But it's all bullshit. It was bullshit when he was saying things were bad in spite of what the data were saying before he got elected and he's bullshitting now when he says that the same data sources he was calling fake before he got elected now show that things have REALLY gotten MUCH better.



From https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputSe ... E_cesbref1. And if you are wondering that graph covers January 2007 through December 2017. You can tell for sure because there is a data table below the graph on the page.

[JohnStOnge]

If you are wondering there also isn't any indication in a change in the labor force participation rate trend. The news isn't as good there. But basically the rate declined from around 2007 (or earlier...2007 is the earliest year you can see) through around 2014 then flattened out and just started kind of randomly bouncing up and down. That continued through 2017. So, no, there is no indication of any change with the way things were previously going with respect to that aspect of the jobs picture associated with Trump getting elected or taking office. This time the image link doesn't include the title of the graph, etc., but you can see that it's the labor force participation rage by going to the page at https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000.



The good news for Trump on this one is that one would expect to see a rise at some point after seeing things flatten out like that. And if that happens soon Trump can claim credit for it.

[JohnStOnge]

See...guys...much of the hype that is part of Trump's bullshit is making a big deal out of something like someone opening a plant or this happening or that happening in individual circumstances. But individual things like that happen all the time. They undoubtably happened numerous times during the Obama Presidency. The difference is that Obama didn't run around saying, "Hey did you hear about this business starting in Grosse Tete, Louisiana? That was because of ME." And he didn't have a bunch of his cult members doing that either.

You have to look the big picture. And the big picture hasn't changed at all. Well...in one sense it has. The big picture was generally of improving trends. So if you look at the picture from 2010 it's a little better than the one from 2009 and if you look at the picture from 2011 it's a little better than the picture from 2010 and so on. But there's no indication at this point of a change in the way things were generally going.

Frankly I was not expecting that because I was expecting Trump to do things like start a trade war with China by now. I am also surprised that stock market people would bet on the future when somebody like Trump is at the wheel. I expected to see distinct negative changes by now and I was wrong. But the idea that there's been this big improvement in the way the economy was associated with Trump getting elected just isn't true. Not at this point anyway. On the plus side for Trump cultists it's reasonable to think the tax cuts might juice things for a while. On the minus side he's starting to show signs of starting his trade wars. We'll see what happens.

[houndawg]

Since you brought it up, go ahead and state your opinion on this and what you predict the outcome will be.

I said during the campaign I think that if Trump did what he said he was going to do with protectionism it'll be a disaster. Especially with respect to China. The US population has become accustomed to getting a lot things at reasonable prices. When tariff's are imposed the US consumer pays them. I don't think the US wants a trade war with China. I think the US would lose that war. And Chinese leadership knows Trump is a buffoon. He's out of his league trying to deal with them.

He doesn't have a very good track record for getting tough with his bankers.