Brexit Thread

[houndawg]

Saw some quotes from people that didn't appreciate a foreign leader...funny that's also what I call Obama... getting involved in their business.

Wonder if he's figured out that he just isn't that popular. I sure hope he gets real involved with the fall election.

You weren't born in the US?

[houndawg]

Wisdom comes with age... except in the case of JSO, then it's senility comes with age.

Guy has been here forever, finally makes a good point after years of trying, and you call him "senile".....

[houndawg]

Wisdom comes with age... except in the case of JSO, then it's senility comes with age.

Guy has been here forever, finally makes a good point after years of trying, and you call him "senile".....

[Ibanez]

Interesting theory...

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

People say a second referendum is unlikely and political suicide. I don't think it is as unlikely as people think. So many who voted Leave now realize what the costs will be and how the Leave campaign has already broken major promises. It's finally sinking in that leaving the EU is going to mean the destruction of the United Kingdom. People now realize that once you leave the EU there is no coming back for decades.

The pressure for a second referendum will keep rising and how can a prime minister deny the will of the people who will want another democratic election. It is still democratic after all and if the people wish to leave the votes would reflect that. Of course the vote will likely heavily go towards Remain now the large chunk of undecided, soft Leave and people who didn't show up (screw them) actually go vote. The whole crisis will be averted and UKIP will have to make peace with that if it goes heavily towards Remain. Even Farrage wanted another referendum if it was 52/48 and that quote is going to haunt him for a long time.

Calling a second referendum might be political suicide for the next Tory prime minister but they are going to commit political suicide taking the position anyway and none of them really want that legacy.

That's an interesting theory. I contend that the UK HAS to invoke Article 50. The people have called for it and to do anything less would be shameful. Even the EU has stated that they 1) Want the UK to get out ASAP and 2) Would consider the UK in some alternative "member status". They realize the ruin that is ahead for them if the UK leaves. Other countries, like Germany, will see their percentage owed to the EU budget increase. A major trading partner and ally isn't something they can easily throw away.

On the Parliament side, I'd like to see the debate/argument for usurping the vote.

[Ibanez]

Does anyone else see the irony of a nationalist movement extricating the UK from a union that was meant to, among other things, dilute the same type of nationalism that led to WW2 and it's creation?

[POD Knows]

Does anyone else see the irony of a nationalist movement extricating the UK from a union that was meant to, among other things, dilute the same type of nationalism that led to WW2 and it's creation?

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

[DSUrocks07]

Interesting theory...

That's an interesting theory. I contend that the UK HAS to invoke Article 50. The people have called for it and to do anything less would be shameful. Even the EU has stated that they 1) Want the UK to get out ASAP and 2) Would consider the UK in some alternative "member status". They realize the ruin that is ahead for them if the UK leaves. Other countries, like Germany, will see their percentage owed to the EU budget increase. A major trading partner and ally isn't something they can easily throw away.

On the Parliament side, I'd like to see the debate/argument for usurping the vote.

Fear.

That will be the argument.

The biggest problem that every major first world economic power faces is that their populations aren't growing fast enough to sustain their individual welfare apparatuses, and like an unbalanced pyramid is doomed to topple no matter if the UK stayed or left the EU.

I do however find it interesting that in such a known weak jobs market on a worldwide scale, that the argument against leave was that that there won't be enough people amongst the native populations to fill future jobs and that immigration would be required to fill them.

Where are these future jobs going to come from? Why would remaining a part of the EU create these jobs if they were already pre-existing a week ago, when a lot of pundits were saying that the EU was heading to a recession.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Does anyone else see the irony of a nationalist movement extricating the UK from a union that was meant to, among other things, dilute the same type of nationalism that led to WW2 and it's creation?

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

I think that's the irony he was referring to...

[houndawg]

Saw some quotes from people that didn't appreciate a foreign leader...funny that's also what I call Obama... getting involved in their business.

Wonder if he's figured out that he just isn't that popular. I sure hope he gets real involved with the fall election.

I think he is important to Hillary's effort for turnout purposes. If he could run for a third term he would absolutely kick Trump's ass. It would not be remotely close.

Right now his RealClearPolitics favorable/unfavorable ratings are 50.5/45.6. That's very good for a President the end of his second term and a WHOLE lot better than either of the two major party nominees. Obama is at +5 while Clinton is at -15.4 and Trump is at Trump is at an incredibly bad -26.9.

The problem for the Democrats is that it's not going to be Obama, who inspired unusually high turnout among non-Whites, running. But they can hope that he can at least serve as a cheerleader to keep that turnout up to some extent. I think Hillary is definitely better off with him engaged than she is without that.

There is no problem for the Democrats, John. The election is already in the bag - Trump has raised $1,000,000 and Hillary has raised $40,000,000 so far. This will be a Nixon/Mondale sized landslide and if the FBI takes Hillary out of the game Bernie will beat him even worse. Trump's biggest problem? After the ass-whipping for the ages he is going to receive this fall his brand won't be worth shit anymore. Running for Prez will in future hindsight be his biggest fvck-up of them all, and that is saying something..

[OL FU]

I think he is important to Hillary's effort for turnout purposes. If he could run for a third term he would absolutely kick Trump's ass. It would not be remotely close.

Right now his RealClearPolitics favorable/unfavorable ratings are 50.5/45.6. That's very good for a President the end of his second term and a WHOLE lot better than either of the two major party nominees. Obama is at +5 while Clinton is at -15.4 and Trump is at Trump is at an incredibly bad -26.9.

The problem for the Democrats is that it's not going to be Obama, who inspired unusually high turnout among non-Whites, running. But they can hope that he can at least serve as a cheerleader to keep that turnout up to some extent. I think Hillary is definitely better off with him engaged than she is without that.

There is no problem for the Democrats, John. The election is already in the bag - Trump has raised $1,000,000 and Hillary has raised $40,000,000 so far. This will be a Nixon/Mondale sized landslide and if the FBI takes Hillary out of the game Bernie will beat him even worse. Trump's biggest problem? After the ass-whipping for the ages he is going to receive this fall his brand won't be worth **** anymore. Running for Prez will in future hindsight be his biggest fvck-up of them all, and that is saying something..

Nah, heard a while back a new Trump political news channel is in the making. He will make out like a bandit

[Skjellyfetti]

That's an interesting theory. I contend that the UK HAS to invoke Article 50. The people have called for it and to do anything less would be shameful.

Not necessarily.

[POD Knows]

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

I think that's the irony he was referring to...

A predictable outcome to an action is not irony.

[kalm]

I think that's the irony he was referring to...

A predictable outcome to an action is not irony.

The irony is they are now realizing the thing it was designed to avoid.

[AZGrizFan]

A predictable outcome to an action is not irony.

The irony is they are now realizing the thing it was designed to avoid.

Maybe it's too nuanced?

[kalm]

The irony is they are now realizing the thing it was designed to avoid.

Maybe it's too nuanced?

This!

[POD Knows]

The irony is they are now realizing the thing it was designed to avoid.

Maybe it's too nuanced?

Maybe but I will concede the point, I just look at it differently. If a political party raises income taxes to increase revenue but it has the opposite effect and reduces revenue because of slower growth, is that ironic? I don't think it is but some people might, depends on your perspective.

[houndawg]

Maybe it's too nuanced?

Maybe but I will concede the point, I just look at it differently. If a political party raises income taxes to increase revenue but it has the opposite effect and reduces revenue because of slower growth, is that ironic? I don't think it is but some people might, depends on your perspective.

If.

Reagan raised taxes 11 times in 8 years. Show me a Republican that doesn't think that was the Golden Age.

[Ibanez]

Does anyone else see the irony of a nationalist movement extricating the UK from a union that was meant to, among other things, dilute the same type of nationalism that led to WW2 and it's creation?

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

No. The EU was born in the wake of World War 2. A war,whose roots are deep with Nationalism ideology. Like National Socialism. Creating the EU, the open borders and all that was an attempt to AVOID a repeat of the nationalist fervor that led to war.

[POD Knows]

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

No. The EU was born in the wake of World War 2. A war,whose roots are deep with Nationalism ideology. Like National Socialism. Creating the EU, the open borders and all that was an attempt to AVOID a repeat of the nationalist fervor that led to war.

Nope, I never see the irony in things that are preordained. We just define irony differently.

[POD Knows]

Maybe but I will concede the point, I just look at it differently. If a political party raises income taxes to increase revenue but it has the opposite effect and reduces revenue because of slower growth, is that ironic? I don't think it is but some people might, depends on your perspective.

If.

Reagan raised taxes 11 times in 8 years. Show me a Republican that doesn't think that was the Golden Age.

As usual, you missed the point entirely, are your a short bus guy because if you are, please let me know and I will quit teasing or replying to you. I know you have more brains in your farts because you have stated that on here which is really good and I hope you do well in school tomorrow. Now, you sleep tight you little treasure.

[POD Knows]

Don't really understand the "irony" of it, the EU was destined to create nationalism and now we are seeing the result. It was somewhat predictable but surprising nonetheless. I think it is great and hope more countries follow.

No. The EU was born in the wake of World War 2. A war,whose roots are deep with Nationalism ideology. Like National Socialism. Creating the EU, the open borders and all that was an attempt to AVOID a repeat of the nationalist fervor that led to war.

BTW, your premise on the "formalized" EU is wrong and was based on economics and centralized control, not on reducing nationalism but that is a whole other thread.

[Grizalltheway]

No. The EU was born in the wake of World War 2. A war,whose roots are deep with Nationalism ideology. Like National Socialism. Creating the EU, the open borders and all that was an attempt to AVOID a repeat of the nationalist fervor that led to war.

BTW, your premise on the "formalized" EU is wrong and was based on economics and centralized control, not on reducing nationalism but that is a whole other thread.

Yes, the idea being that a group of countries that are economically interdependent would be less likely to engage in armed conflict. You can disagree with that philosophy if you want, but it is what it is.

[POD Knows]

BTW, your premise on the "formalized" EU is wrong and was based on economics and centralized control, not on reducing nationalism but that is a whole other thread.

Yes, the idea being that a group of countries that are economically interdependent would be less likely to engage in armed conflict. You can disagree with that philosophy if you want, but it is what it is.

Agreements aren't worth the paper that they are printed on because governments are not trustworthy but it makes guys like you feel good. Countries that traded with each other also warred with each other, alliances like the EU, League of Nations, the UN and the rest are useless. History proves this, isn't that ironic but predictable.

[kalm]

If.

Reagan raised taxes 11 times in 8 years. Show me a Republican that doesn't think that was the Golden Age.

As usual, you missed the point entirely, are your a short bus guy because if you are, please let me know and I will quit teasing or replying to you. I know you have more brains in your farts because you have stated that on here which is really good and I hope you do well in school tomorrow. Now, you sleep tight you little treasure.

* you

[kalm]

Yes, the idea being that a group of countries that are economically interdependent would be less likely to engage in armed conflict. You can disagree with that philosophy if you want, but it is what it is.

Agreements aren't worth the paper that they are printed on because governments are not trustworthy but it makes guys like you feel good. Countries that traded with each other also warred with each other, alliances like the EU, League of Nations, the UN and the rest are useless. History proves this, isn't that ironic but predictable.

And they were all created to create cooperation and reduce nationalistic tendencies in the hopes of reducing the threat of large scale conflicts.

How ironic.