Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
So, in your world we should remain committed to a totally shitty agreement that accomplishes absolutely nothing and in which they still plow along with their nuclear program because the previous president and SOS were stupid enough to sign it?

You have totally gone off the deep end.
In my world and everybody else's world the United States as a nation broke its word. Maybe the circumstances are such that doing that was the best thing to do. Don't know. But as far as the rest of the world is concerned the United States broke its word. I don't think that's a small thing.
Any foreign ministry of even the stupidest countries in the world at least have a rudimentary understanding of how the American foreign policy works - they know that binding treaties are how we do arms control

Iran wanted that plane load of cash (honestly... a plane load of cash? That's pure Trumpian) and they got it for a song - because Obama and Kerry wanted a foreign policy legacy and were willing to give up the farm to get it

The Iran deal was in essence the ending of sanctions in return for an unverifiable oath from a state sponsor of terror

The moral of this story is that you need to make treaties with the US. Otherwise you're buying your 5th grade best friend's dad's truck without his dad's knowledge. When the adults find out, the deal's off.

That lesson alone would make me support pulling out of any nonbinding agreement with a terrorist state


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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by SDHornet »

JohnStOnge wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
So, in your world we should remain committed to a totally shitty agreement that accomplishes absolutely nothing and in which they still plow along with their nuclear program because the previous president and SOS were stupid enough to sign it?

You have totally gone off the deep end.
In my world and everybody else's world the United States as a nation broke its word. Maybe the circumstances are such that doing that was the best thing to do. Don't know. But as far as the rest of the world is concerned the United States broke its word. I don't think that's a small thing.
The Jews, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE (I miss anyone else?) seem cool with it. :coffee:
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by SDHornet »

Iran launched a missile strike on northern Israel late Wednesday night, with 20 Grad and Fajr rockets taking off from Syria in what was widely seen as retaliation after months of Israeli airstrikes punishing their forces — but it looks like it got crushed.
What was missing was a total lack of international outrage. Israel carried out the strike with impunity after entering Syrian airspace uninvited. It lost no soldiers or civilians. Iran has been badly beaten by its great enemy and condemned on the world stage days after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.

Now, Iran's only recourse may be to silently take the beating or unleash Hezbollah for all-out war on Israel.
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-att ... ned-2018-5

Sounds like a very moderate response. Maybe Iran was sending missiles of love. Que JSO to claim the world hates us for pulling out of this broken deal.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by JohnStOnge »

SDHornet wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
In my world and everybody else's world the United States as a nation broke its word. Maybe the circumstances are such that doing that was the best thing to do. Don't know. But as far as the rest of the world is concerned the United States broke its word. I don't think that's a small thing.
The Jews, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE (I miss anyone else?) seem cool with it. :coffee:
Those entities are cool with it. But I think they still know the United States broke its word. And most of the world is not cool with it.

Now, we will have to see what happens. But the United States did risk its credibility in terms of making commitments when it did what Trump just did. Yes, everybody understands that the Presidency changed hands, etc. But that's part of it. We just demonstrated that the United States can make a commitment under one President then the next President can totally renege. Again: That is not a small thing as our Presidents serve for 8 years maximum.
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Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SDHornet wrote: The Jews, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE (I miss anyone else?) seem cool with it. :coffee:
Those entities are cool with it. But I think they still know the United States broke its word. And most of the world is not cool with it.

Now, we will have to see what happens. But the United States did risk its credibility in terms of making commitments when it did what Trump just did. Yes, everybody understands that the Presidency changed hands, etc. But that's part of it. We just demonstrated that the United States can make a commitment under one President then the next President can totally renege. Again: That is not a small thing as our Presidents serve for 8 years maximum.
No, John, they were also skeptical of “the deal” even when it was being bribed er I mean negotiated. Leaving this deal hurts us on the world stage not one bit

Because now as in the past 100 years, when we offer to put an agreement in treaty form, people know we’re serious

See: SALT, START, etc etc
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
SDHornet wrote: The Jews, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE (I miss anyone else?) seem cool with it. :coffee:
Those entities are cool with it. But I think they still know the United States broke its word. And most of the world is not cool with it.

Now, we will have to see what happens. But the United States did risk its credibility in terms of making commitments when it did what Trump just did. Yes, everybody understands that the Presidency changed hands, etc. But that's part of it. We just demonstrated that the United States can make a commitment under one President then the next President can totally renege. Again: That is not a small thing as our Presidents serve for 8 years maximum.
How did our president’s “word” get damaged when Obama drew his 37th line in the sand with Syria?
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by Ivytalk »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Those entities are cool with it. But I think they still know the United States broke its word. And most of the world is not cool with it.

Now, we will have to see what happens. But the United States did risk its credibility in terms of making commitments when it did what Trump just did. Yes, everybody understands that the Presidency changed hands, etc. But that's part of it. We just demonstrated that the United States can make a commitment under one President then the next President can totally renege. Again: That is not a small thing as our Presidents serve for 8 years maximum.
No, John, they were also skeptical of “the deal” even when it was being bribed er I mean negotiated. Leaving this deal hurts us on the world stage not one bit

Because now as in the past 100 years, when we offer to put an agreement in treaty form, people know we’re serious

See: SALT, START, etc etc
Yup. Technically, the US wasn’t legally bound to the Great Turbans for a damned thing.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by houndawg »

∞∞∞ wrote:
93henfan wrote:IIt doesn’t really matter who “those guys” are. Most of us here have been watching Iran with amusement for 40 years now. There sure are a lot of those guys (and girls). Real progressives there in your enlightened muzzieville
You think there's a reason why Iranians and middle-easterners could have an issue with the United States? I can't think of anything we've done to depress that part of the world in the last 30+ years.

I do think **** them over and over, degrading their society, and calling them terrorists until they bow down to American exceptionalism is a good solution though. That's how every friend in life is made.

The fact is that Iran has been changing for the better in recent years. It's not there and it'll never be what America wants, but demographically, the writing is on the wall. But the deed is done; we've abandoned Iran. We've abandoned a young nation that's itching for change. We've abandoned a large economic market. And worst of all, we've abandoned the chance to exert strong diplomatic influence in the region.

bullshit, they'll be making money off the mid-east and Iran for a long time while you and I and our kids supply the blood and treasure to pay for it. Bought any gas in the world's largest producer country lately? :coffee:
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by SeattleGriz »

What was up with the whole vote flip as well? Instead of 60 votes to pass, they changed the rules to be 60 votes to kill and thus how it passed.

Like Cid said, this was an agreement between children.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by houndawg »

CID1990 wrote:
∞∞∞ wrote: Every nation included in the pact, the IAEA, and our intelligence services (including senior Trump officials) say Iran's holding up their end of the bargain.



It's arguably one of the most successful arms-control deals in modern history. So no, I didn't know that.
I put a big space in there where you departed from reality

The parameters of "the deal" were agreed to by the Iranians because the inspection and verification regime allows them to continue working on their nuclear weapons program.

So in terms of the parameters of the deal, you are mostly correct.

But it is the ultimate deception and borderline insanity to compare it with actual arms treaties that have unlimited and spot inspections like the START treaties.

I said a long time ago on this thread that Iran was going to get the bomb no matter what. This deal makes it so that the West helps pay for a state sponsor of terrorism to get it.

Someone else said it gets old calling you naive but its really the only word to use


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Obviously if North Korea can get a bomb almost nation that really wants one can have one eventually.

Wait until they, and everybody else, get caught up with our drone technology. :coffee:
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Those entities are cool with it. But I think they still know the United States broke its word. And most of the world is not cool with it.

Now, we will have to see what happens. But the United States did risk its credibility in terms of making commitments when it did what Trump just did. Yes, everybody understands that the Presidency changed hands, etc. But that's part of it. We just demonstrated that the United States can make a commitment under one President then the next President can totally renege. Again: That is not a small thing as our Presidents serve for 8 years maximum.
No, John, they were also skeptical of “the deal” even when it was being bribed er I mean negotiated. Leaving this deal hurts us on the world stage not one bit

Because now as in the past 100 years, when we offer to put an agreement in treaty form, people know we’re serious

See: SALT, START, etc etc
I think the idea that us pulling out of an agreement the other side has lived up to has no impact on our credibility because it's not a treaty is ridiculous. But the only way we could find out for sure would be to conduct a poll of world leaders and hope they give honest answers. That doesn't mean I don't think we should be making treaties instead of executive agreements. But the reality is that we make a lot of executive agreements and I think it is important that we do not develop a reputation for violating them.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by Pwns »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/ ... rack-obama

That time Obama reneged on a missile defense deal and told the Polish to GFY.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
No, John, they were also skeptical of “the deal” even when it was being bribed er I mean negotiated. Leaving this deal hurts us on the world stage not one bit

Because now as in the past 100 years, when we offer to put an agreement in treaty form, people know we’re serious

See: SALT, START, etc etc
I think the idea that us pulling out of an agreement the other side has lived up to has no impact on our credibility because it's not a treaty is ridiculous. But the only way we could find out for sure would be to conduct a poll of world leaders and hope they give honest answers. That doesn't mean I don't think we should be making treaties instead of executive agreements. But the reality is that we make a lot of executive agreements and I think it is important that we do not develop a reputation for violating them.
The reason you think it is ridiculous is because you have abandoned reason

We are talking about Iran here

The absolute gold standard of state sponsors of terrorism

Our own governmental entities (specifically my own employer) annually lists them as the gold standard of heinous state actors

Nobody gives a good GOTdamn about knifing them in the sack .... all bloviating from Germany aside - a country that has underneath cover to do business with a country whose sole foreign policy platform is to destroy every man, woman, and child in Israel...

Our current foreign policy stance on Iran is absolutely correct. Your dislike of Trump... is immaterial. Iran should be shunned and ostracized on the world stage, and doing so will speed the end of the Mullahocracy which Trip thinks is already in its dying throes in spite of the fact that this “deal” was its biggest fp win in history

Your opposition in this case is telling - it has zero credibility unless viewed through the lens of blind hatred for Trump
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote:


Nobody gives a good GOTdamn about knifing them in the sack ....
I think that's pretty obviously untrue.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by BDKJMU »

Looks like the Krauts are butthurt.. :lol:
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

BDKJMU wrote:Looks like the Krauts are butthurt.. :lol:
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Its been a hard couple months for them

They've had to stop doing business with many of their Russian clients due to sanctions (Merkel asked for exceptions.... from Trump... think about that for a second)

now they will have to roll back their deals with a state exporter of terrorism whose sole stated purpose is the destruction of Jews

its no wonder the Germans are feeling a bit "deprimiert"




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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
No, John, they were also skeptical of “the deal” even when it was being bribed er I mean negotiated. Leaving this deal hurts us on the world stage not one bit

Because now as in the past 100 years, when we offer to put an agreement in treaty form, people know we’re serious

See: SALT, START, etc etc
I think the idea that us pulling out of an agreement the other side has lived up to has no impact on our credibility because it's not a treaty is ridiculous. But the only way we could find out for sure would be to conduct a poll of world leaders and hope they give honest answers. That doesn't mean I don't think we should be making treaties instead of executive agreements. But the reality is that we make a lot of executive agreements and I think it is important that we do not develop a reputation for violating them.
Well, John, the first sentence of your post undercuts whatever argument you have left that you’re a Constitutional conservative. And the Iranians have been cheating from the jump.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by houndawg »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I think the idea that us pulling out of an agreement the other side has lived up to has no impact on our credibility because it's not a treaty is ridiculous. But the only way we could find out for sure would be to conduct a poll of world leaders and hope they give honest answers. That doesn't mean I don't think we should be making treaties instead of executive agreements. But the reality is that we make a lot of executive agreements and I think it is important that we do not develop a reputation for violating them.
Well, John, the first sentence of your post undercuts whatever argument you have left that you’re a Constitutional conservative. And the Iranians have been cheating from the jump.
Think the money we'd save if we can get Israel and Iran to annihilate each other. 8-)
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I think the idea that us pulling out of an agreement the other side has lived up to has no impact on our credibility because it's not a treaty is ridiculous. But the only way we could find out for sure would be to conduct a poll of world leaders and hope they give honest answers. That doesn't mean I don't think we should be making treaties instead of executive agreements. But the reality is that we make a lot of executive agreements and I think it is important that we do not develop a reputation for violating them.
Well, John, the first sentence of your post undercuts whatever argument you have left that you’re a Constitutional conservative. And the Iranians have been cheating from the jump.
I am a Constitutional conservative and I'd like it better if we stuck to making treaties instead of being "practical" and using executive agreements that are not treaties. But I think your statement that the Iranians have been cheating on the agreement from the jump is subject to question. Everything I've heard indicates they have been living up to their side of the bargain. This is a May 9, 2018, statement from the Director of International Atomic Energy Agency:

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/stateme ... 9-may-2018

The bottom line:
Iran is subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime under the JCPOA, which is a significant verification gain. As of today, the IAEA can confirm that the nuclear-related commitments are being implemented by Iran.
In Googling around I can see that there was a dispute involving interpretations pertaining to production of heavy water. But, overall, I don't see any indication at all that Iran has failed to live up to its end of the agreement.

Now, one can criticize the agreement and many have done that. But at this point Iran as well as five of the six other countries who were party to the agreement have lived up to it. The one country that has not done that is the United States.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Well, John, the first sentence of your post undercuts whatever argument you have left that you’re a Constitutional conservative. And the Iranians have been cheating from the jump.
I am a Constitutional conservative and I'd like it better if we stuck to making treaties instead of being "practical" and using executive agreements that are not treaties. But I think your statement that the Iranians have been cheating on the agreement from the jump is subject to question. Everything I've heard indicates they have been living up to their side of the bargain. This is a May 9, 2018, statement from the Director of International Atomic Energy Agency:

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/stateme ... 9-may-2018

The bottom line:
Iran is subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime under the JCPOA, which is a significant verification gain. As of today, the IAEA can confirm that the nuclear-related commitments are being implemented by Iran.
In Googling around I can see that there was a dispute involving interpretations pertaining to production of heavy water. But, overall, I don't see any indication at all that Iran has failed to live up to its end of the agreement.

Now, one can criticize the agreement and many have done that. But at this point Iran as well as five of the six other countries who were party to the agreement have lived up to it. The one country that has not done that is the United States.
Yes, John - the Iranians HAVE been living up to their side of the deal

it really isn't that difficult for them

In exchange for immediate sanctions relief and a planeload of cash - they agreed to a deal that allows them to keep their nuke program - with an inspections regime that limits inspectors to where the Iranians say they can go, and only then after plenty of warning ahead of time

why wouldn't the Iranians follow the deal? THEY WROTE IT


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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by ∞∞∞ »

CID1990 wrote:Yes, John - the Iranians HAVE been living up to their side of the deal

it really isn't that difficult for them

In exchange for immediate sanctions relief and a planeload of cash - they agreed to a deal that allows them to keep their nuke program - with an inspections regime that limits inspectors to where the Iranians say they can go, and only then after plenty of warning ahead of time

why wouldn't the Iranians follow the deal? THEY WROTE IT
It's not significantly difficult to determine if a nation is developing a nuclear weapon or not.

Even if the facility is kept secret, it takes a massive amount of energy to enrich weapons grade uranium and plutonium. Additionally, supplies of Uranium 235 and Plutonium 239 are a) difficult to find and b) tightly controlled by the international community (and isn't found in Iran).

It's also a massive engineering endeavor needing a large amount of people with very unique expertise.

You'd really have to have a complete breakdown of international monitoring and clandestine agencies in order to have a country be able to develop a nuclear weapon under-the-radar. If the world could figure out North Korea (an actual hermit state) was developing the bomb, how would Iran be able to secretly pull it off?

Heck, we knew Iran was developing the bomb before the treaty. With even more access, I'm not sure why anyone thinks we wouldn't know if they were violating it.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CID1990 »

∞∞∞ wrote:
CID1990 wrote:Yes, John - the Iranians HAVE been living up to their side of the deal

it really isn't that difficult for them

In exchange for immediate sanctions relief and a planeload of cash - they agreed to a deal that allows them to keep their nuke program - with an inspections regime that limits inspectors to where the Iranians say they can go, and only then after plenty of warning ahead of time

why wouldn't the Iranians follow the deal? THEY WROTE IT
It's not significantly difficult to determine if a nation is developing a nuclear weapon or not.

Even if the facility is kept secret, it takes a massive amount of energy to enrich weapons grade uranium and plutonium. Additionally, supplies of Uranium 235 and Plutonium 239 are a) difficult to find and b) tightly controlled by the international community (and isn't found in Iran).

It's also a massive engineering endeavor needing a large amount of people with very unique expertise.

You'd really have to have a complete breakdown of international monitoring and clandestine agencies in order to have a country be able to develop a nuclear weapon under-the-radar. If the world could figure out North Korea (an actual hermit state) was developing the bomb, how would Iran be able to secretly pull it off?

Heck, we knew Iran was developing the bomb before the treaty. With even more access, I'm not sure why anyone thinks we wouldn't know if they were violating it.
I see.

The international community has apparently been doing nuclear agreements all wrong then -

Who knew that inspections regimes were an unnecessary part of nuclear development verification?

All those borderline appeal to expertise fallacies you just threw out there don't fly considering that Iran was significantly further along in producing a deliverable weapon than we thought they were just a couple years ago - they are at the starting line of the downhill sprint to the breakout - which is why any agreement - even one that arms control experts would consider sufficient - does not stop Iran from getting the bomb.

So as I said way back when - Iran gets the bomb no matter what. They can get it with our economic approval or our economic disapproval. Apparently we decided to welcome them to the nuke community with a planeload of cash.

This deal was a political deal - not an arms control deal.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by ∞∞∞ »

CID1990 wrote:
∞∞∞ wrote: It's not significantly difficult to determine if a nation is developing a nuclear weapon or not.

Even if the facility is kept secret, it takes a massive amount of energy to enrich weapons grade uranium and plutonium. Additionally, supplies of Uranium 235 and Plutonium 239 are a) difficult to find and b) tightly controlled by the international community (and isn't found in Iran).

It's also a massive engineering endeavor needing a large amount of people with very unique expertise.

You'd really have to have a complete breakdown of international monitoring and clandestine agencies in order to have a country be able to develop a nuclear weapon under-the-radar. If the world could figure out North Korea (an actual hermit state) was developing the bomb, how would Iran be able to secretly pull it off?

Heck, we knew Iran was developing the bomb before the treaty. With even more access, I'm not sure why anyone thinks we wouldn't know if they were violating it.
I see.

The international community has apparently been doing nuclear agreements all wrong then -

Who knew that inspections regimes were an unnecessary part of nuclear development verification?

All those borderline appeal to expertise fallacies you just threw out there don't fly considering that Iran was significantly further along in producing a deliverable weapon than we thought they were just a couple years ago - they are at the starting line of the downhill sprint to the breakout - which is why any agreement - even one that arms control experts would consider sufficient - does not stop Iran from getting the bomb.

So as I said way back when - Iran gets the bomb no matter what. They can get it with our economic approval or our economic disapproval. Apparently we decided to welcome them to the nuke community with a planeload of cash.

This deal was a political deal - not an arms control deal.
Everyone understands Iran has the means to get the bomb, but delaying it a decade and showing them the economic benefits they'd experience in that meantime can potentially stop their will.

After ten years, Iran can continue with the benefits of open trade; or continue nuclear development and face severe sanctions once again. And in that preceding decade, businesses around the world can enjoy a fairly large and new marketplace.
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by CAA Flagship »

∞∞∞ wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
I see.

The international community has apparently been doing nuclear agreements all wrong then -

Who knew that inspections regimes were an unnecessary part of nuclear development verification?

All those borderline appeal to expertise fallacies you just threw out there don't fly considering that Iran was significantly further along in producing a deliverable weapon than we thought they were just a couple years ago - they are at the starting line of the downhill sprint to the breakout - which is why any agreement - even one that arms control experts would consider sufficient - does not stop Iran from getting the bomb.

So as I said way back when - Iran gets the bomb no matter what. They can get it with our economic approval or our economic disapproval. Apparently we decided to welcome them to the nuke community with a planeload of cash.

This deal was a political deal - not an arms control deal.
Everyone understands Iran has the means to get the bomb, but delaying it a decade and showing them the economic benefits they'd experience in that meantime can potentially stop their will.

After ten years, Iran can continue with the benefits of open trade; or continue nuclear development and face severe sanctions once again. And in that preceding decade, businesses around the world can enjoy a fairly large and new marketplace.
Iran is not in a position of strength here. How many years were they in a stalemate war with Iraq? We took Iraq in a weekend. And if we wanted to remove the Iranian regime, we would have a lot of support from the Saudis and Iraqis, and a large percentage of the Iranian population.

Here's a better deal:
1. Hey Iran, the world community will have access to inspect your facilities whenever we want, and for that, we will not wipe out your regime.
2. Sign Here: __________________________________
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Re: Kerry Fails Again-Iran Talks Extended-No Agreement In Sight

Post by ∞∞∞ »

CAA Flagship wrote:Here's a better deal:
1. Hey Iran, the world community will have access to inspect your facilities whenever we want, and for that, we will not wipe out your regime.
2. Sign Here: __________________________________
This reasoning is why I advocate complete civilian control of the military.

With that suggestion, why not completely eliminate international diplomacy and threaten any nation with destruction? I mean comparatively, no nation is in a position of strength against us.

No offense, but this line of thinking is the military-industrial mindset Eisenhower warned about. As civilians, it's our duty to be wary, vigilant, critical, and question military action over diplomacy.
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