How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Political discussions

How long will the shutdown last?

Poll runs till Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:15 pm

Less than a week (open by Dec 28)
3
12%
1 to <2 weeks (open by Jan 4)
2
8%
2 to <3 weeks (open by Jan 11)
5
19%
3 to <4 weeks (open by Jan 18)
2
8%
4 to <5 weeks (open by Jan 25)
0
No votes
5 to <6 weeks (open by Feb 2)
2
8%
6 or more weeks
12
46%
 
Total votes: 26

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:11 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Do your own research, Weetag™!

The answer is no, so your question is irrelevant, Billy.


Water may be a concern, Weetag™!

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:12 pm

mainejeff wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
Bump!
This is really the conversation for the day regarding The Wall

:nod:


They're all going home for the weekend to watch AOC dancing videos and whack off.

:coffee:


Link(s)?

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:13 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:Also I want a cut of whatever you make using the WeeTag brand. :tothehand:


No. I need the money during this crippling shutdown.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby dbackjon » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:19 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:They funded border security. That funding is working. All stats show that it is working. Trump is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist to the degree it does. He is wasting money on a solution that will be ineffective and environmentally destructive.

Democrats want border security. They have voted for border security. But not for a quarter mile clearing of US land through sensitive areas.


But that is not black and white, it requires thinking and understanding, which the right can't do.


Who cares about 1/4 mile of clearing. There's wide swaths of the border up to EIGHTY **** MILES into America that we can not go into because of activity of illegals and drug runners. Sacrificing 1/4 mile to get back that 80 mile stretch is well worth it.


I care. Many care. It clears and destroys some of the best habitat in South Texas, and creates a wildlife/migrational barrier. Wildlife viewing contributes billions of dollars to South Texas and southern Arizona yearly. Trump's folly will harm that.

And your wide swathes of the border that Americans can't go? BULLFUCKING ****. I have many friends that bird the border areas constantly. Never afraid to go down there. You are falling for more of Trump's and whatever extremist rightwing sites you frequent's lies.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby houndawg » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:31 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:Sounds like every other government **** in history. Costs 4-5x as much as anticipated and takes 5 times as long. So, nothing new there...

A few questions:
1) How does he know the contractors don't employ architects? I've never know a contractor who doesn't employ (or at least subcontract out) the design of projects to architects.
2) He admits the wall hasn't been designed, but then goes on to blast the design? How does he know it will impede the flow of water when it hasn't been designed (by his own admission)?
3) Does he REALLY think we're stupid enough to believe that this is the last $5B that's going to be needed?
4) I'll be honest and admit I didn't click on the 2nd link, but that first link is a great article. :nod: :nod:


What they need is Civil Engineering expertise, not architects. And they won't like what they hear, but they already have the phony invoices printed, the substandard product ordered, and all the shoddy workmanship available that they could possibly want.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby dbackjon » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:39 pm

Fencing/border barriers have already caused flooding in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. There are many washes, creeks, and rivers that cross the border. Those all flood. All get clogged with debris.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Grizalltheway » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:39 pm

AZGrizFan wrote:Sounds like every other government **** in history. Costs 4-5x as much as anticipated and takes 5 times as long. So, nothing new there...

A few questions:
1) How does he know the contractors don't employ architects? I've never know a contractor who doesn't employ (or at least subcontract out) the design of projects to architects.
2) He admits the wall hasn't been designed, but then goes on to blast the design? How does he know it will impede the flow of water when it hasn't been designed (by his own admission)?
3) Does he REALLY think we're stupid enough to believe that this is the last $5B that's going to be needed?
4) I'll be honest and admit I didn't click on the 2nd link, but that first link is a great article. :nod: :nod:

She, actually. Saw it on FB.

And yes, there is probably a significant portion of Trump supporters who think this will be a quick and cost effective project. That's how he's been selling it the whole time.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:52 pm

houndawg wrote:
CAA Flagship wrote: :shock: :rofl:

Good grief, Jon.
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I do hope that if they catch the scum that is cutting down Joshua trees that they go the extra mile to make their lives hard.


It's probably that family that saved so hard to get there

now they're just trying to stay warm


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:56 pm

∞∞∞ wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
Honest question, MJ: Doesn't the donks' about face on immigration and need for a wall give you ANY concern?

No; I like that they've shifted their position instead of digging in.

Plus there's a bunch of new faces in the Democratic party; 2019 House isn't the same as 2013 House.

Values change...that's the point.


You are absolutely right about that

Just ten years ago, the Democratic Party wasn't for open borders at all


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Skjellyfetti » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:02 pm

No wall isn't an open border.
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Cid1990 wrote:It is going to be a sad day for a lot of people when all that comes of all of this is Flynn getting whacked.

Mueller is going to take a beating on the left before this business is over

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:03 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:Alright chumps, sit still for a minute and read this

Howdy.

To recap: I’m a licensed structural and civil engineer with a MS in structural engineering from the top program in the nation and over a decade of experience on high-performance projects, and particularly of cleaning up design disasters where the factors weren’t properly accounted for, and I’m an adjunct professor of structural analysis and design at UH-Downtown. I have previously been deposed as an expert witness in matters regarding proper construction of walls and the various factors associated therein, and my testimony has passed Daubert.

Am I a wall expert? I am. I am literally a court-accepted expert on walls.

Structurally and civil engineering-wise, the border wall is not a feasible project. Trump did not hire engineers to design the thing. He solicited bids from contractors, not engineers. This means it’s not been designed by professionals. It’s a disaster of numerous types waiting to happen.

What disasters?

Off the top of my head...
1) It will mess with our ability to drain land in flash flooding. Anything impeding the ability of water to get where it needs to go (doesn’t matter if there are holes in the wall or whatever) is going to dramatically increase the risk of flooding.
2) Messes with all kind of stuff ecologically. For all other projects, we have to do an Environmental Site Assessment, which is arduous. They’re either planning to circumvent all this, or they haven’t accounted for it yet, because that’s part of the design process, and this thing hasn’t been designed.
3) The prototypes they came up with are nearly impossible to build or don’t actually do the job. This article explains more:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.eng ... 17599.html

And so on.

The estimates provided for the cost are arrived at unreasonably. You can look for yourself at the two-year-old estimate that you see everyone citing.

http://fronterasdesk.org/sites/default/ ... 20Wall.pdf

It does not account for rework, complexities beyond the prototype design, factors to prevent flood and environmental hazard creation, engineering redesign... It’s going to be higher than $50bn. The contractors will hit the government with near CONSTANT change orders. “Cost overrun” will be the name of the game. It will not be completed in Trump’s lifetime.

I’m a structural forensicist, which means I’m called in when things go wrong. This is a project that WILL go wrong. When projects go wrong, the original estimates are just *obliterated*. And when that happens, good luck getting it fixed, because there aren’t that many forensicists out there to right the ship, particularly not that are willing to work on a border wall project— a large quotient of us are immigrants, and besides, we can’t afford to bid on jobs that are this political. We’re small firms, and we’re already busy, and we don’t gamble our reputations on political footballs. So you’d end up with a revolving door of contractors making a giant, uncoordinated muddle of things, and it’d generally be a mess. Good money after bad. The GAO agrees with me.

And it won’t be effective. I could, right now, purchase a 32 foot extension ladder and weld a cheap custom saddle for the top of the proposed wall so that I can get over it. I don’t know who they talked to about the wall design and its efficacy, but it sure as heck wasn’t anybody with any engineering imagination.

Another thing: we are not far from the day where inexpensive drones will be able to pick up and carry someone. This will happen in the next ten years, and it’s folly to think that the coyotes who ferry people over the border won’t purchase or create them. They’re low enough, quiet enough, and small enough to quickly zip people over any wall we could build undetected with our current monitoring setup.

Let’s have border security, by all means, but let’s be smart about it. This is not smart. It’s not effective. It’s NOT cheap. The returns will be diminishing as technology advances, too. This is a ridiculous idea that will never be successfully executed and, as such, would be a monumental waste of money.


He's right on many points

(it doesnt take an engineer to know it though)

Instead of a wall (since those are immoral) we could have a fence, patrolled by a CBP which is 20 times bigger

all we just have to do is create a hundred thousand new Federal workers! Democrat LOVE them some Federal workers

Done



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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:49 pm

An article about how the Congress people representing every one of the Congressional Districts along the US/Mexico border oppose funding a border wall:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-bor ... -2019-1-8/

I think it's pretty safe to say that if you were to poll the people in all of the Congressional districts adjacent to the Mexican border the overwhelming majority of the people in them would say they don't want Trump's border wall or barrier or whatever. I'd like to see someone do that poll though. I don't know if anyone has thought to do that yet but if not somebody should.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SeattleGriz » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:56 pm

I failed. I picked done by the 4th.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby SeattleGriz » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:57 pm

93henfan wrote:
Grizalltheway wrote:Also I want a cut of whatever you make using the WeeTag brand. :tothehand:


No. I need the money during this crippling shutdown.


I'm sorry if you have answered this before, but will you get paid not working? Why?
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:00 pm

Skjellyfetti wrote:No wall isn't an open border.


Mm hmm

"no wall, no discussion"

"wall is an immorality"

"defund ICE"

no cooperation with ICE detainers by municipalities

Those sure do sound like if they arent for open borders, they're certainly open borders curious

Hell there's less evidence Trump's a racist

Remember how "we can't pay for it"... "it wont work".... "its just a strategy to get to single payer"... I'm trying to remember what was inferred about Republicans over that?






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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:11 pm

Trump full of **** again. Saying that wheels were invented before walls:

phpBB [video]


Of course it's not true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az8bwpkpcNs

Jericho's settlement is traced back to about 9000 B.C., according to Britannica. Around the same time, walls have been traced as being used in a temple in Urfa, located in southeast Turkey.

The first wheel, however, is traced back to about 3500 B.C., thousands of years after walls, meaning the president was incorrect in his statements.


Yes I know whether walls or wheels were invented first doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But it's just another example of how Trump will just make stuff up. You really can NOT believe anything he says.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby 93henfan » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:25 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Yes I know whether walls or wheels were invented first doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But it's just another example of how Trump will just make stuff up. You really can NOT believe anything he says.


Truth, even if you are the most repetitive MF'er in history. :lol:

I saw this interview tonight on CNN. It's longish, at 9 minutes, but a great watch. If you're crunched for time, start at 4:30. That's when Friedman really gets going on Trump's lies. :notworthy:

phpBB [video]
Last edited by 93henfan on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:25 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Trump full of **** again. Saying that wheels were invented before walls:

phpBB [video]


Of course it's not true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az8bwpkpcNs

Jericho's settlement is traced back to about 9000 B.C., according to Britannica. Around the same time, walls have been traced as being used in a temple in Urfa, located in southeast Turkey.

The first wheel, however, is traced back to about 3500 B.C., thousands of years after walls, meaning the president was incorrect in his statements.


Yes I know whether walls or wheels were invented first doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But it's just another example of how Trump will just make stuff up. You really can NOT believe anything he says.


Everybody knows that Scots invented the modern world


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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Pwns » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:55 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Trump full of **** again. Saying that wheels were invented before walls:

phpBB [video]


Of course it's not true:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az8bwpkpcNs

Jericho's settlement is traced back to about 9000 B.C., according to Britannica. Around the same time, walls have been traced as being used in a temple in Urfa, located in southeast Turkey.

The first wheel, however, is traced back to about 3500 B.C., thousands of years after walls, meaning the president was incorrect in his statements.


Yes I know whether walls or wheels were invented first doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But it's just another example of how Trump will just make stuff up. You really can NOT believe anything he says.


I'm going to call BS on that 3500 number. They could easily go back to the stone age, but there'd be no trace of the wheels left.
We get the government we deserve. :nod:

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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:01 pm

93henfan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Yes I know whether walls or wheels were invented first doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But it's just another example of how Trump will just make stuff up. You really can NOT believe anything he says.


Truth, even if you are the most repetitive MF'er in history. :lol:

I saw this interview tonight on CNN. It's longish, at 9 minutes, but a great watch. If you're crunched for time, start at 4:30. That's when Friedman really gets going on Trump's lies. :notworthy:

phpBB [video]


He referred to Trump as "demented." I haven't used that term. However, as you know, I've said for some time that I think he is mentally ill. I think he has serious emotional maturity and stability issues. I also think that we are seeing that manifested in this situation. I think he took a foolish position after being immature enough to respond to what people like Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter had to say. And now he's a child who doesn't want to be embarrassed by having to back off.

It was really, really stupid for him to do something like this right after the Democrats just won big in the mid terms in the context of a situation in which he made fear mongering about illegal immigration a big deal during the campaign leading up to the elections. The issue was "litigated" in the mid terms and he lost. I also have to believe that the people around him had to know that public opinion looked to be on the Democrats' side. But now it doesn't matter. All his childish mind is concerned about is not losing face.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby Chizzang » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:20 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
93henfan wrote:
Truth, even if you are the most repetitive MF'er in history. :lol:

I saw this interview tonight on CNN. It's longish, at 9 minutes, but a great watch. If you're crunched for time, start at 4:30. That's when Friedman really gets going on Trump's lies. :notworthy:

phpBB [video]


He referred to Trump as "demented." I haven't used that term. However, as you know, I've said for some time that I think he is mentally ill. I think he has serious emotional maturity and stability issues. I also think that we are seeing that manifested in this situation. I think he took a foolish position after being immature enough to respond to what people like Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter had to say. And now he's a child who doesn't want to be embarrassed by having to back off.

It was really, really stupid for him to do something like this right after the Democrats just won big in the mid terms in the context of a situation in which he made fear mongering about illegal immigration a big deal during the campaign leading up to the elections. The issue was "litigated" in the mid terms and he lost. I also have to believe that the people around him had to know that public opinion looked to be on the Democrats' side. But now it doesn't matter. All his childish mind is concerned about is not losing face.


John,
Half the Republicans right here on this forum are defending Trump on the Wall thing...
And this is a forum where half the arguments are Democrat and half are Republican

Out in the world - the core of each constituency - only listen to their own talk boxes
So if you can't get traction in here on an argument...
you really aren't going to get any out there

:nod:
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:11 pm

Chizzang wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
John,
Half the Republicans right here on this forum are defending Trump on the Wall thing...
And this is a forum where half the arguments are Democrat and half are Republican

Out in the world - the core of each constituency - only listen to their own talk boxes
So if you can't get traction in here on an argument...
you really aren't going to get any out there

:nod:


Arguing that a wall is necessary is different than being in denial about where public opinion is at a particular time. It was pretty obvious when this started that public opinion was on the Democrats' side on this issue. They just won the mid terms big even though Trump and the Republicans made a big deal about caravans invading the United States and such. Any honest assessment of polling on the issue indicated that more Americans in general and voters in particular oppose building a wall on the border than support it. And it was somewhere around a 10 percentage point margin. And the one poll that directly asked whether or not Democrats should fund the wall had 55% saying "no" vs. 45% saying "yes." That was a Harvard/Harris poll conducted December 24-25 just after the shutdown started. AND we went into this about a week after the President pulled a stunt on national television saying HE would take responsibility for a shutdown.

I like to think that I don't kid myself about public opinion. Like I think Roe vs. Wade was a horrific decision and don't think there's any right to abortion in the Constitution. And I'll make arguments about that. But I don't kid myself about public opinion. I know an overwhelming majority of people in the US do not want Roe vs. Wade overturned at this time and I'm not going to try to find ways to believe that isn't true.

Now, public opinion on the shutdown and the wall could change. That happens. But I just don't know about Trump and the Republicans starting a fight like that when public opinion was clearly on the Democrats' side and Trump just finished saying he would take responsibility for a shutdown.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby JohnStOnge » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:16 pm

Check this out:

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... ayer-money

Border Patrol Union Just Deleted a Webpage Saying a Wall Would Be 'Wasting Taxpayer Money'


I never heard of motherboard but that story can be found at a number of sources. It's true. I just picked that one because I like the way the headline is written.
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby CID1990 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:11 pm

Chizzang wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
He referred to Trump as "demented." I haven't used that term. However, as you know, I've said for some time that I think he is mentally ill. I think he has serious emotional maturity and stability issues. I also think that we are seeing that manifested in this situation. I think he took a foolish position after being immature enough to respond to what people like Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter had to say. And now he's a child who doesn't want to be embarrassed by having to back off.

It was really, really stupid for him to do something like this right after the Democrats just won big in the mid terms in the context of a situation in which he made fear mongering about illegal immigration a big deal during the campaign leading up to the elections. The issue was "litigated" in the mid terms and he lost. I also have to believe that the people around him had to know that public opinion looked to be on the Democrats' side. But now it doesn't matter. All his childish mind is concerned about is not losing face.


John,
Half the Republicans right here on this forum are defending Trump on the Wall thing...
And this is a forum where half the arguments are Democrat and half are Republican

Out in the world - the core of each constituency - only listen to their own talk boxes
So if you can't get traction in here on an argument...
you really aren't going to get any out there

:nod:


My main issue over the wall is that it is trivial

Im aware of the Fed procurement process, the eminent domain issues, and all the other roadblocks and pitfalls

But,

1) given the absolute farce that is Federal spending and the ridiculous things we already set money on fire for in each and every budget

and 2) the relatively low number being asked for in the grand scheme of things

it just seems like a softball to me to not only fund the wall, but get something in return for it .... regardless of its effectiveness. The time just seems right to me for Pelosi to ask Trump what he would give for the wall- she might get more than just DACA

I think both sides are being completely petty... maybe Im a bit biased because I think the dreamers ultimately need an amnesty (we arent going to deport them) but this whole thing is a result of complete inflexibility on both sides when there is an answer right in front of them all


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"You however, are an insufferable ankle biting mental chihuahua..." - Clizzoris

css75
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Re: How Long Will The Shutdown Last? (Dec 2018)

Postby css75 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:15 am

CID1990 wrote:
Chizzang wrote:
John,
Half the Republicans right here on this forum are defending Trump on the Wall thing...
And this is a forum where half the arguments are Democrat and half are Republican

Out in the world - the core of each constituency - only listen to their own talk boxes
So if you can't get traction in here on an argument...
you really aren't going to get any out there

:nod:


My main issue over the wall is that it is trivial

Im aware of the Fed procurement process, the eminent domain issues, and all the other roadblocks and pitfalls

But,

1) given the absolute farce that is Federal spending and the ridiculous things we already set money on fire for in each and every budget

and 2) the relatively low number being asked for in the grand scheme of things

it just seems like a softball to me to not only fund the wall, but get something in return for it .... regardless of its effectiveness. The time just seems right to me for Pelosi to ask Trump what he would give for the wall- she might get more than just DACA

I think both sides are being completely petty... maybe Im a bit biased because I think the dreamers ultimately need an amnesty (we arent going to deport them) but this whole thing is a result of complete inflexibility on both sides when there is an answer right in front of them all


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She would refuse even that.


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