Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Colonial: William and Mary
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
AT-LARGE
Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Colonial: Delaware, New Hampshire, Villanova
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Southern: Wofford, Georgia Southern

Last Four In:
Western Illinois, North Dakota State, Georgia Southern, South Carolina State

Last Four Out:
Liberty, Jacksonville, Montana, Dayton

First Round, November 27th

 North Dakota State @ Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina State
Robert Morris @ Villanova
Lehigh @ Western Illinois

Second Round, December 4th
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina State winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Wofford @ Bethune-Cookman

Lehigh @ Western Illinois winner @ #4 Eastern Washington
New Hampshire @ #5 Stephen F. Austin

North Dakota State @ Georgia Southern winner @ #3 Delaware
Southeast Missouri @ Northern Iowa

William and Mary @ Jacksonville State
Robert Morris @ Villanova winner @ #2 Montana State

Figuring out who to put it didn’t require a lot of processing.  Figuring out who got a bye and what team should go where was enough to give me a migraine through Thanksgiving. Two things would not surprise me. Montana getting in ($$$$$$$$) or Jacksonville replacing one of the last four in. If there was a year for a PFL team to get in, it would be this year.

Now seems like a good time to take a shot at prognosticating what this years playoff field will look like in the end. Let’s start with the automatic bids:

Big Sky- With the way things have started in the Big Sky, it’s obvious that this could change quite a bit over the next month or two. If I had to pick a winner today (and I do), it would be Montana State.  The Bobcats could easily be at 5-0 right now, and although they faltered a bit this past weekend, their destiny is definitely in their hands.

Big South- As of today, the front runner in the Big South has to be Liberty. Although the loss to Robert Morris looks a little shaky, we may find that the Colonials were a better team than we might have expected. No one else in the conference even deserves a look right now. Gardner-Webb fell apart after the win at Akron.

CAA- Today’s winner of the CAA autobid is Massachusetts. The Minutemen are off to a strong start and if they can avoid a collapse they should be one of several CAA teams in the playoffs this year. Delaware is running neck and neck with them at this point.

MEAC- South Carolina State is the easy pick at this point. They’ve gone undefeated through the conference for quite some time and haven’t shown any intentions of ending that trend.

MVFC- The Valley is almost a pick’em at this point. As of today I would rule out North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Indiana State. Northern Iowa has one of the best defenses in the nation through four games. If they can get points out of their offense they should come out of the battle as the last one standing.  Any of the top six teams in the league could easily be argued for, but with the exception of going to Southern Illinois this weekend, UNI’s schedule is very favorable. A loss in Carbondale would definitely change my pick.

NEC- You have to go with Robert Morris. The Colonials have been up to snuff so far. Three of the four wins have come on the road. I like that in a team. It’s still early enough for a lot of change, but I really like the Colonials to earn the leagues first automatic bid to the playoffs.

OVC- Every week I keep expecting the top teams of the OVC to fall apart like usual. But so far Southeast Missouri State and Jacksonville State have shown the toughness they need to stay undefeated in conference. The two teams meet in the last game of the season and I expect the home team, Jacksonville State to take home the autobid. If both teams can win out to that point then we should expect the loser to give the OVC a second bid.

Patriot- Until last weekend I think we all thought Georgetown was going to do the unexpected, but after a 31-3 drubbing, the Hoyas expectations have been lowered. We’ve seen very little in league play from the PL, so anything at this point would be pure speculation.  Georgetown may still be in play, but at this point Colgate is my front runner.

Southern- Appalachian State….no devils advocate to play here at this point.

Southland- Stephen F. Austin may be the most disliked team in the nation at this point. While fans of the SLC have disliked them for years, fans from around the country have seen the Texas A&M video or had other complaints of their own. “Just win, baby”: The Jacks do it. Look for them to make a strong post season run….unless the Montana fans get to them on Friday night.

That gives us the ten autobids:

Montana State, Liberty, Massachusetts, South Carolina St, Northern Iowa, Robert Morris, Jacksonville State, Colgate, Appalachian State, and Stephen F Austin.

Now let’s get down to the at-large canidates (teams I put in the bracket in bold) :

Big Sky: Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Montana

Big South: none

CAA: Delaware, Villanova, William and Mary, and James Madison

MEAC: none

MVFC: Western Illinois, Illinois State, Youngstown State, and Southern Illinois

NEC: none

OVC: Southeast Missouri State

Patriot: none

Southern: Georgia Southern, Wofford, and Chattanooga

Southland: McNeese State, Central Arkansas, and Texas State

The 5 seeds:

Delaware, Massachusetts, Jacksonville State, Appalachian State, and Stephen F. Austin

Last Four Out:
Western Illinois
Illinois State
Youngstown State
Chattanooga

First Round:

Robert Morris
@Liberty

Wofford
@South Carolina State

Eastern Washington
@Texas State

Colgate
@Montana

Second Round:

Robert Morris/Liberty
@ #1 Massachusetts

Villanova
@ Georgia Southern

Montana State
@ #5 Delaware
Colgate/Montana
@ #4 Stephen F. Austin

Wofford/South Carolina State
@ #2 Appalachian State

Southeast Missouri State
@ William and Mary

James Madison  
@ Northern Iowa

Eastern Washington/Texas State
@ #3 Jacksonville State

(please let me know if you see any errors…..I’m sure you will)

X Delaware 10-1  7-1 – I’m not even going to try to work out tiebreakers. Delaware comes back strong.

X William and Mary 9-2 7-1 – The Tribe have another great season.

X New Hampshire 9-2  7-1 – UNH continues to stretch its playoff appearances.

Y Villanova 9-2  6-2 – Defending champion returns to defend the throne.

UMass 5-6  4-4 – Things just aren’t right in Amherst.

Richmond 5-6 4-4 – CAA is tough and the Spiders just have to get things back on course.

James Madison 5-6  3-5 – The Dukes just can’t turn the corner.

Towson 2-9 1-7 – Same old for the Tigers.

Maine 3-8  1-7 – Another rough year for Maine.  Tough schedule and the CAA is strong.

Rhode Island 1-10 0-8 – Maybe the PL or NEC would be a better fit?

With the season right around the corner, I decided it was time to start the conference by conference breakdowns.

X Southern Illinois 9-2 7-1 – Only slipping up once in conference and owning a win over UNI, SIU earns the MVFC auto-bid.

Y  Northern Iowa  9-2  7-1 – Northern Iowa returns to the playoffs with an at-large bid.

Y  Illinois State 9-2 6-2 – Illinois State makes their return to the playoffs with at at-large bid.

Z  North Dakota State 7-4 5-3 – NDSU is a bubble candidate for their first playoff appearance.

South Dakota State 6-5 5-3 – The Jacks fall a little short this year.

Youngstown State 6-5  4-4 – The Penguins are rebuilding, just a year away from contention.

Indiana State 3-8 1-7 – The Sycamores take a step in the right direction.

Western Illinois 2-9 1-7 – Bad situations in Macomb carry over to 2010. Maybe the healing can begin.

Missouri State 1-10 1-7 – Terry Allen says his goodbyes and cleans out his office.

We’re all excited for the kick-off of the 2010 season, so I thought I would give a rundown of some of the games I’m most excited about in the first week.

9/4/2010:

Weber State at Boston College-  If the Wildcats can keep up the offensive attack they’ve had for the last couple of years, this could be a very interesting game.  I’m always looking out for the FCS over FBS upsets, and this one has an outside shot.

Elon at Duke-  I think the Phoenix have a great shot at taking down the Blue Devils.  Not neccesarily a earth shaking prediction, but FCS over FBS nonetheless.

Richmond at Virginia- This will be a game of interest.  While I might normally predict a Richmond win, Coach Mike London left the Spiders for UVa at the end of the 2009 season.  It will be interesting to see how these two coaches staffs approach this game.  Richmond also has former USC backup, Aaron Corp.

(Edit: Thanks to Ursus!) William and Mary at UMass- What better way to start the season than to see where two CAA teams are at?  This should be a great test for both teams.  Can’t hurt to get an early lead in the CAA standings.

What games are you guys looking forward to?

Villanova won their first FCS title while I was gone.

I hope to start getting back in the swing of things in the next few weeks. Interviews with new head coaches, stories on big recruits, and all kinds of off season fun.

 Unfortunately this week has been very busy. This means two things. I can’t make it to Chattanooga, and I don’t have much time to write.

I apologize for not giving this game the rundown it deserves. Here’s a quicky.

Montana has been clicking on all cyclinders since the end of the South Dakota State game.

Villanova has played very well with the exception of some issues in the William and Mary game.

The key in this game is how the Montana offense will handle the 3-3-5 defense. People have argued back and forth about this in the comment section. Here’s the issue: It’s not that Montana has not played good defenses. It’s that they haven’t seen a 3-3-5. Those of you who have ever faced a 3-3-5 understand the issues. In a 3-3-5, there are 3 down linemen, 3 LBs, and 5 DBs. Essesntially every play is a blitz, and as an offensive lineman, it is hard to make your reads and know who to block. So the keys will be how well they scout it, how well they understand it, and how they adapt to it during the game.

We all know the rest about both of these teams. It’s been drilled into us every week since Thanksgiving.

I’ve got to say:

Montana Grizzlies 24  Villanova Wildcats 20

Sorry for the delay. It’s been a crazy week filled with travel, blizzards, and all kinds of other stuff.

In 30 minutes William and Mary will take the field against Villanova. When the teams faced off earlier this year it was a fantastic game. The Tribe’s costly redzone turnovers really made the game.

Tonight the Tribe’s defense and running game will take them to the championship.

William and Mary 24  Villanova 21

App St-Montana has been 9 years in the making. The teams last faced off in the 2000 semifinals. The Griz won that game in OT 19-16.

I expect a great game in this one. I’ll say that I expect a lot of Armanti’s typical heroics, but the last drive comes up just short.

Montana 27  Appalachian State 21

If the first round predictions made me look educated, the quarterfinals made me look foolish. 1 out of 4, although the App St-Richmond game came down to the wire.

William and Mary 24   Southern Illinois 3

This game started out as a defensive battle. For most of the first half, W&M could not get into Saluki territory. The Salukis were moving the ball with ease, but then the Tribe defense would stiffen up. The Salukis were held to two FG attempts, one of which was no good. William and Mary broke across the 50 yard line on their last two drives. The first drive resulted in the tying FG, the second added a TD that would’ve been enough to seal the win. 

The Saluki playing calling in the second half was terrible, but that’s not to say that the Tribe defense was not spectacular.

The Tribe and Coach Laycock head to Villanova where I think they have a great match-up with Villanova.

Montana 51  Stephen F. Austin 0

This game was over very quickly. The Griz were up 10-0 after one quarter, 38-0 at the half, and 48-0 after 3 quarters.

There was a point where I thought, “if anyone can come back, it would be this SFA offense.” Then there was turnover after turnover after turnover. When all was said and done the Lumberjacks was committed 10 turnovers to the Grizzlies 1. 

Great play from the Griz combined with a lackluster day from the Jacks made for a terrible day for fans of the Southland conference.

Villanova 46  New Hampshire 7

New Hampshire’s first play of the game resulted in a Villanova TD. That was the way the day went for UNH. 

With the field covered in a blanket of snow, the UNH lines were no match for Villanova. Nova rushed for 343 yards and only threw 5 passes all day.

UNH attempted 39 passes but only completed 17 for 150 yards. Starting QB RJ Toman was benched with a concussion after being hit again and again. The UNH line gave their QBs no protection.

The other staggering stat is UNHs -66 yards of rushing offense. 

Appalachian State 35  Richmond 31

This was by far the best game of the day. Richmond held a slim lead for much of it, but then looked like they were going to pull away in the 4th quarter.

Things looked really bad for the Mountaineers when Richmond’s Eric McBride stripped the ball away on a punt return and ran it in for a TD with 3:26 remaining. (Editorial: This was a terrible play by the refs. 3 Richmond defenders had the ball carrier stopped while McBride was allowed to pull on the ball. The play should have blown dead, but was not, and there is no replay in the quarterfinals. I’m not sure that would be reviewable anyway).

App St continued the offensive dominance they showed in the 4th quarter and put a dagger in the Spiders heart with :10 left. 

Richmond had a great team this year but now looks to replace important seniors, and Head Coach Mike London who has agreed to terms with Virginia.

In last weeks predictions I correctly picked 7 out of the 8 games. This week might be a little bit tougher as every game seems like a toss-up. Here are my thoughts on this weeks match-ups.

Stephen F. Austin @ (1) Montana

Montana has been one of the most inconsistent teams in FCS football this year. Now that said, they are also the most consistent winners. All year I have said that “good teams win games”. Montana has done that, even if it took a last second FG to beat Idaho State.

Last weekend showed what Montana is capable of. Scoring 40 points to grab a comeback victory is no easy task, especially for a team that has played two QBs for most of the season.

I would argue that Montana is hitting their stride at just the right time, something that seems to be fairly normal for Bobby Hauck led teams. 

Stephen F. Austin has had a great year offensively. The Lumberjacks air attack was complemented by a 100 yard rusher last week. My concern is the Lumberjack defense. I don’t think they are up to the task at hand this weekend.

Montana Grizzlies 45  Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 35

Appalachian State at (4) Richmond

In last weekend’s game, the Spiders held on for the 3 point win over Elon. The win came in spite of Richmond’s 3 turnovers to Elon’s 0.  Richmond is the defending champion who knows what it takes, and is playing good football right now. Richmond will need to keep the turnover margin a little closer against this opponent.

Appalachian State didn’t look like they were in championship form last weekend. While SC State was no pushover, the Mountaineers won the game on a botched special teams play that should have put the Bulldogs in the lead. The App State defense may be on track, but the offense is not clicking. Dropped passes, Armanti’s health, and other factors have me questioning them a bit this week.

Richmond Spiders 24  Appalachian State Mountaineers 17

New Hampshire @ (2) Villanova

This game features a rematch of a great regular season CAA matchup. The Wildcats faced off the first time on October 10th in Durham, NH. Each team finished with 1 turnover and New Hampshire pulled out a 28-24 win to give Villanova their lone loss on the year.

Last weekend Villanova faced a Holy Cross team that liked to air it out. The Wildcat defense gave up 393 yards and allowed 28 points. Luckily the Villanova offense was up to the task and put up 38 points of their own while piling up 537 yards of total offense.  Villanova’s offense has remained balance all season. If they continue to stay balance and keep turnovers to a minimum, they will be in this game until the end. 

For the other Wildcats, last weekend was a little bit different. New Hampshire flew home from Louisiana with a 49-13 win over McNeese State. Despite only having one turnover, the Cowboy offense only managed 13 points on 326 yards of offense. New Hampshire controlled the field position game all day. 

I don’t think either one of these teams holds a real strong home field advantage. I expect a game very similar to the first match-up, and I also expect the same result.

New Hampshire Wildcats 31   Villanova Wildcats 24

William and Mary at (3) Southern Illinois

After watching the 2009 season unfold, I think this is the closest game of the quarterfinals. William and Mary is easily interchangeable with any of the 4 seeds, their only losses in close games to Richmond and Villanova. 

Southern Illinois had it easy last week, pounding on a weak Eastern Illinois team. The Salukis pounded the Panthers 48-7. William and Mary also too it easy last week and humiliated Weber State 38-0. Both of these teams should come into the game well rested.

The story of this game is SIU RB Deji Karim. His success will be a large factor in who wins this game. That said, both teams are very solid on offense and defense.

I think that the little things decide the winner of this game: Specials teams, turnovers, field position, weather. Travel may also come into play for the Tribe.

Southern Illinois Salukis 21  William and Mary Tribe 20